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Mephistopheles

By Mephistopheles,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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Mephistopheles Knoxville Smokies

Mephistopheles

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

A simple beta projection system I developed out performed PECOTA in a limited test. I find that hysterical. Of course it's not better than PECOTA and what I was trying to project was simple. It's nothing more than the Marcel idea on EqA. I looked at about thirty MI's from the 1990s to build an average shortstop/secondbaseman age curve for it. Obviuosly a speedy SS will age differently than a power hitting SS, but I lumped them all together because I can. I then tested the model versus PECOTA projecting EqA of all shortstops last year, and a few other MI. Rodriguez and Durham. I don't know why I included them...both PECOTA and MEPH missed ridiculously on both of them. 

 Act     Pec   Meph   E_Pec E_Meph  Name
.340   .319   .310   .021   .030   ALEX RODRIGUEZ
.285   .305   .277   .020   .008   DEREK JETER
.271   .296   .289   .025   .018   MIGUEL TEJADA
.270   .286   .275   .016   .005   MICHAEL YOUNG
.227   .295   .269   .068   .042   RAY DURHAM
.221   .264   .242   .043   .021   OMAR VIZQUEL
.211   .215   .215   .004   .004   JOHN MCDONALD
.210   .234   .221   .024   .011   CESAR IZTURIS
.266   .247   .257   .019   .009   DAVID ECKSTEIN
.269   .247   .246   .022   .023   JACK WILSON
.260   .247   .233   .013   .027   ALEX GONZALEZ
.248   .251   .244   .003   .004   YUNIESKY BETANCOURT
.254   .252   .250   .002   .004   MARK LORETTA
.246   .253   .246   .007   .000   MARCO SCUTARO
.261   .254   .241   .007   .020   J.J. HARDY
.260   .260   .253   .000   .007   ORLANDO CABRERA
.297   .262   .259   .035   .038   EDGAR RENTERIA
.222   .263   .228   .041   .006   JUAN URIBE
.219   .265   .247   .046   .028   BOBBY CROSBY
.244   .268   .278   .024   .034   RAFAEL FURCAL
.253   .269   .252   .016   .001   JASON BARTLETT
.225   .269   .261   .044   .036   JULIO LUGO
.263   .272   .266   .009   .003   KHALIL GREENE
.239   .272   .268   .033   .029   FELIPE LOPEZ
.290   .274   .272   .016   .018   JIMMY ROLLINS
.236   .276   .289   .040   .053   STEPHEN DREW
.278   .276   .266   .002   .012   JOSE REYES
.315   .277   .302   .038   .013   HANLEY RAMIREZ
.259   .281   .265   .022   .006   JHONNY PERALTA
.283   .306   .291   .023   .008   CARLOS GUILLEN
.257   .269   .260   .023   .017   AVERAGE

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BigbadB First Round Pick

BigbadB

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Numbers? Maybe you should try actually watching the games.

 

Kind of hard to watch the games when pitchers and catchers haven't reported to camp yet. :wink:

VanceJergins First Round Pick

VanceJergins

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Numbers? Maybe you should try actually watching the games.

 

Kind of hard to watch the games when pitchers and catchers haven't reported to camp yet. :wink:

 

I have every game from last year recorded on VHS tapes.

Friendly Confines ACL Cubs

Friendly Confines

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Numbers? Maybe you should try actually watching the games.

 

Kind of hard to watch the games when pitchers and catchers haven't reported to camp yet. :wink:

 

I have every game from last year recorded on VHS tapes.

 

Congratulations

VanceJergins First Round Pick

VanceJergins

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Numbers? Maybe you should try actually watching the games.

 

Kind of hard to watch the games when pitchers and catchers haven't reported to camp yet. :wink:

 

I have every game from last year recorded on VHS tapes.

 

Congratulations

 

I was hoping I wouldn't have to point out that I'm joking.

CubinNY MVP

CubinNY

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
wtf is vhs

 

It's like multiple VH1's....they call them VHs.

Booooooo.....

 

Hahaha, but no really that was funny.

When you graduate will your blog be postgraduatecub.blogspot.com.org?

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