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Posted

As a proponent of the "walks are good" movement, I would like to voice my support for Brandon Sing, who is tearing up minor league pitching for the second straight year. After a terrible 2003 got mono, lost 25 pounds and played like crap, Brandon went down to Daytona in 2004 and was the overwhelming choice for league MVP. This year he could be making another run at the same honor in AA. He's only 24, which isn't too old for that league, so it's time to start thinking about this guy as a real solid prospect. At the very least, he'd be a guy that some of the OBP-focused AL teams would be interested in (i.e., Boston, Toronto, Oakland.)

 

His plate discipline has improved every year, and as that has happened his batting average and power numbers have increased as he's swinging at better pitches. His swing and approach were retooled by Daytona hitting coach Richie Zisk, who obviously knows what he's doing. Brandon's numbers over the past 2 years:

 

Year   G	   AB	 R	 H	 2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	 SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005   89    295   58    88   25    0   20    53   56    81  .298  .406  .586  .992
2004   122	408	86	110	27	 0	32	 94	84	101  .270  .399  .571  .970	

 

 

If he were a #1 draft pick or 20 years old, people would be freaking out about those numbers -- which, mind you, have been put up in leagues that historically have been more friendly to pitchers than to hitters. True his 2003 season was a complete dud, and 2004 was his third crack at Daytona, but I think one has to say that there were circumstances beyond his baseball abilities that caused his washout in 2003. So my biggest question is, can the guy play left field? Obviously first base is blocked, but the Cubs obviously could use a LF who hits for power and draws a lot of walks. I know he's playing a lot of 1B for WTenn, but that was b/c Murton was in LF every night. Maybe it would be a good idea to get him some practice in LF, and stick someone else at 1B? It also would be nice to see him go to the Arizona Fall League and play some LF there.

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Posted
This was the pivotal year for Sing. AA was gonna be his proving ground. He struggled in AA before the mono, and that really ate at him (from reading interviews). He is definitely a top 15 prospect. He reminds me of Jason Dubois. But he more athletic, and probably has even more power and a better arm. He's more patient and strikes out slightly less than JD did in the minors. Actually, Jonny Gomes looks like the player Sing could become. I would be very happy with that. His BB/100 instantly make him a factor.
Old-Timey Member
Posted
This was the pivotal year for Sing. AA was gonna be his proving ground. He struggled in AA before the mono, and that really ate at him (from reading interviews). He is definitely a top 15 prospect. He reminds me of Jason Dubois. But he more athletic, and probably has even more power and a better arm. He's more patient and strikes out slightly less than JD did in the minors. Actually, Jonny Gomes looks like the player Sing could become. I would be very happy with that. His BB/100 instantly make him a factor.

 

Do you see him getting a chance in our outfield next year?

Posted
This was the pivotal year for Sing. AA was gonna be his proving ground. He struggled in AA before the mono, and that really ate at him (from reading interviews). He is definitely a top 15 prospect. He reminds me of Jason Dubois. But he more athletic, and probably has even more power and a better arm. He's more patient and strikes out slightly less than JD did in the minors. Actually, Jonny Gomes looks like the player Sing could become. I would be very happy with that. His BB/100 instantly make him a factor.

 

Do you see him getting a chance in our outfield next year?

 

Not at all. This is the Cubs. He'll be stuck behind Murton, who'll be stuck behind lackluster veterans and sitting the ML bench.

Posted
This was the pivotal year for Sing. AA was gonna be his proving ground. He struggled in AA before the mono, and that really ate at him (from reading interviews). He is definitely a top 15 prospect. He reminds me of Jason Dubois. But he more athletic, and probably has even more power and a better arm. He's more patient and strikes out slightly less than JD did in the minors. Actually, Jonny Gomes looks like the player Sing could become. I would be very happy with that. His BB/100 instantly make him a factor.

 

I like Gomes a lot and think he's next in line behind Adam Dunn in the, "Most misunderstood players in baseball" group.

 

Also, Jason was a former pitcher. To have a better arm than him is quite impressive!

Posted
This was the pivotal year for Sing. AA was gonna be his proving ground. He struggled in AA before the mono, and that really ate at him (from reading interviews). He is definitely a top 15 prospect. He reminds me of Jason Dubois. But he more athletic, and probably has even more power and a better arm. He's more patient and strikes out slightly less than JD did in the minors. Actually, Jonny Gomes looks like the player Sing could become. I would be very happy with that. His BB/100 instantly make him a factor.

 

Do you see him getting a chance in our outfield next year?

 

Not at all. This is the Cubs. He'll be stuck behind Murton, who'll be stuck behind lackluster veterans and sitting the ML bench.

 

: (

Posted
Sing = Dubois

 

The reason I don't think this is the greatest comparison is the BB/K ratios of the two players. Dubois' best BB/K was 0.6 at Daytona, and then he posted 0.5 and 0.4 ratios the next two seasons. Sing was at 0.8 last year and then 0.7 this year. Sing also has 140 walks in 210 games over the past two years; Dubois walked only 201 times in 456 minor league games. That's a huge difference in patience. Plus, I wouldn't say that Dubois' struggles as a big leaguer would likely happen to everyone. His sharp decline in walk rate and increase in strikeout rate were hard to foresee, given his play in AAA last season. It's certainly possible that Sing could have similar problems at the big league level, but I don't think it's as likely, given an approach at the plate that is clearly more selective.

 

Also, someone noted that Sing more athletic than Dubois. Sing played SS in high school and played some 2B and 3B in his early years after being drafted. Nobody could have seen Dubois as a 2B or 3B. For this reason, I would guess that Sing could be a better OF defensively than Dubois as well.

Posted
He's only 24, which isn't too old for that league...

 

Er, for someone drafted out of high school, 24 is ancient for AA.

 

If he were a #1 draft pick or 20 years old, people would be freaking out about those numbers

 

Obviously. And 4 years being a lifetime when it comes to prospects, that's why they're not freaking out about those numbers.

 

Plus, I wouldn't say that Dubois' struggles as a big leaguer would likely happen to everyone. His sharp decline in walk rate and increase in strikeout rate were hard to foresee, given his play in AAA last season.

 

What? Walk and strikeout rates going in the wrong directions at first when promoted to the big leagues is what's happened to just about every single hitting prospect that has ever lived. How on earth can you say that they aren't likely to happen to everyone? They have, they are and they will.

 

Why? Because major league pitchers typically have better stuff than minor league counterparts, they throw harder, they control it better, they make less mistakes, they mix up their pitches better, they notice weaknesses faster and then exploit them more efficiently. That, after all, is why they're major leaguers and why the minor leaguers aren't.

 

If you read the scouting report on Dubois, it's always said that he's had some trouble hitting breaking balls. Major leaguers have make a mockery of that weakness. And they're not hugely afraid of his strengths, either, not enough to pitch around the guy just because he slugged .630 in Triple-A aged 25 in a real hitter's league.

 

 

Sing's an okay prospect.

Posted
He's only 24, which isn't too old for that league...

 

Er, for someone drafted out of high school, 24 is ancient for AA.

 

"A little old for the league" would be a little more accurate than "ancient", wouldn't you say?

 

If he were a #1 draft pick or 20 years old, people would be freaking out about those numbers

 

Obviously. And 4 years being a lifetime when it comes to prospects, that's why they're not freaking out about those numbers.

 

OK, well let's look at it this way. Matt Murton played three years at Georgia Tech, which most people compare to playing at a level of competition similar to Low A baseball. Murton is 6 months younger than Sing.

 

Murton

2000: DNP (between high school and college)

2001: Low A

2002: Low A

2003: Low A/Advanced Rookie League

2004: High A

2005: Double A

 

Sing:

1999: Low Rookie League

2000: High Rookie League

2001: Low A

2002: High A

2003: Double A -> High A (washout due to mono)

2004: High A

2005: Double A

 

So Sing has advanced a bit more slowly, but essentially Murton repeated the same level three times in college. Sing put up better numbers than Murton at the same level last year, and he's putting up numbers at least as good if not better than Murton at AA this year (after all, his OBP and SLG are better than Murton's at WTenn). So why do people consider Murton a strong prospect, and Sing a marginal prospect, when they're 6 months apart?

 

Plus, I wouldn't say that Dubois' struggles as a big leaguer would likely happen to everyone. His sharp decline in walk rate and increase in strikeout rate were hard to foresee, given his play in AAA last season.

 

What? Walk and strikeout rates going in the wrong directions at first when promoted to the big leagues is what's happened to just about every single hitting prospect that has ever lived. How on earth can you say that they aren't likely to happen to everyone? They have, they are and they will.

 

In the minors, Dubois had a BB/K ratio of 201/430 in 1633 ABs. This year he had a 7/49 ratio in 142 ABs. See where I said sharp decline up there? You mean to tell me that most guys start striking out about 50% more frequently when they get called up, and they walk less than half as much as they did in the minors? His BB and K numbers in the big leagues weren't just an indication of growing pains, but a suggestion that there are serious flaws with his swing and his approach. You'd probably be hard pressed to find a guy whose BB/K numbers slipped that badly in his first crack at the big leagues and still turned into a good major league ballplayer.

 

You want a better comparison to Sing the last two years? Check out Dan Johnson of the A's. He has good control of the strike zone and playing some good baseball for the A's this season. He's a much better comparison than a guy with serious holes in his swing and questions about his plate discipline and athleticism.

Posted
He's only 24, which isn't too old for that league...

 

Er, for someone drafted out of high school, 24 is ancient for AA.

 

"A little old for the league" would be a little more accurate than "ancient", wouldn't you say?

 

No, I wouldn't. Brandon Sing will be a minor league free agent at the end of this year if he's not protected on the 40-man roster. That's quite a bit older than "a little old for his league". Maybe it's not quite ancient, but it's getting there.

 

If he were a #1 draft pick or 20 years old, people would be freaking out about those numbers

 

Obviously. And 4 years being a lifetime when it comes to prospects, that's why they're not freaking out about those numbers.

 

OK, well let's look at it this way. Matt Murton played three years at Georgia Tech, which most people compare to playing at a level of competition similar to Low A baseball. Murton is 6 months younger than Sing.

 

Murton

2000: DNP (between high school and college)

2001: Low A

2002: Low A

2003: Low A/Advanced Rookie League

2004: High A

2005: Double A

 

Sing:

1999: Low Rookie League

2000: High Rookie League

2001: Low A

2002: High A

2003: Double A -> High A (washout due to mono)

2004: High A

2005: Double A

 

So Sing has advanced a bit more slowly, but essentially Murton repeated the same level three times in college. Sing put up better numbers than Murton at the same level last year, and he's putting up numbers at least as good if not better than Murton at AA this year (after all, his OBP and SLG are better than Murton's at WTenn). So why do people consider Murton a strong prospect, and Sing a marginal prospect, when they're 6 months apart?

 

Matt Murton is "a strong prospect"? Since when? Matt Murton won't ever be much less marginal a prospect than Brandon Sing until he either learns to hit for power or shifts himself to the opposite end of the defensive spectrum in a hurry. The second isn't going to happen. Just because Murton has an okay, what, 20 PA in the majors hasn't changed the first one either. Seriously, where do you get this impression than "people" think Murton is "a strong prospect" from? "People" are wrong. He's an okay prospect, probably a bit more okay than Sing, but not by much.

 

Secondly, the career paths for college and high school players are completely different and you know that. In college you play how many games a year? You're playing professionally are you? The level of instruction is exactly the same as in the minor leagues? The level of competition is comparable, is it, in Freshman, Sophomore and Junior years?

 

Murton, a college draftee, at age 23 in Double-A is roughly where he should be. Sing at age 24 in Double-A, drafted out of high school, is completely different. You know that. I don't know why you're going so out of your way to insist that Brandon Sing is some sort of prospect that's really worth getting excited about. He's not, he's just okay.

 

Plus, I wouldn't say that Dubois' struggles as a big leaguer would likely happen to everyone. His sharp decline in walk rate and increase in strikeout rate were hard to foresee, given his play in AAA last season.

 

What? Walk and strikeout rates going in the wrong directions at first when promoted to the big leagues is what's happened to just about every single hitting prospect that has ever lived. How on earth can you say that they aren't likely to happen to everyone? They have, they are and they will.

 

In the minors, Dubois had a BB/K ratio of 201/430 in 1633 ABs. This year he had a 7/49 ratio in 142 ABs. See where I said sharp decline up there? You mean to tell me that most guys start striking out about 50% more frequently when they get called up, and they walk less than half as much as they did in the minors?

 

No, I don't mean to tell you that. Dubois' is an extreme example to be sure. But that doesn't change the fact that for Dubois, if you read a scouting report on him, such struggles weren't "hard to foresee" as you claim. Sure, you can look just at the fact he put up superficially great numbers at Triple-A, or you can also look at his game and his swing. I can't say I picked Dubois' enormous decline myself, I didn't get to watch him play in Iowa last year, but I know plenty of people myself who did and most of them saw Dubois' struggles coming a mile off.

 

Declines in BB/K are absolutely commonplace with prospects. Most hitters struggle in a similar fashion to Dubois early on, if not quite as extreme. Take a look at Felipe Lopez of the BlueJays (now Reds), as an example off the top of my head. Of course, he was a lot, lot younger when struggling. That's an enormous advantage. But one Sing doesn't have himself.

 

His BB and K numbers in the big leagues weren't just an indication of growing pains, but a suggestion that there are serious flaws with his swing and his approach.

 

Didn't say otherwise, did I? In fact, I said exactly that.

 

You'd probably be hard pressed to find a guy whose BB/K numbers slipped that badly in his first crack at the big leagues and still turned into a good major league ballplayer.

 

I don't disagree with that necessarily. However...

 

1) I bet I can find you plenty that slipped that badly, but then didn't go on to have a good major league career. All those 4A players.

 

2) I bet I can find you plenty of very young prospects whose numbers slipped that badly. Of course, that's irrelevant to a discussion about Dubois and Sing, who, incidentally, I didn't actually compare myself.

 

You want a better comparison to Sing the last two years? Check out Dan Johnson of the A's. He has good control of the strike zone and playing some good baseball for the A's this season. He's a much better comparison than a guy with serious holes in his swing and questions about his plate discipline and athleticism.

 

1) College guy

2) Still younger than Sing at the same levels

3) Has raked his entire minor league career, no exceptions

4) Strikes out significantly less than Sing

Posted
Well I guess we will have to agree to disagree on him. I tend to favor "numbers" guys over "potential" guys, and I favor guys with a well-developed sense of the strike zone over guys whose plate discipline is marginal. I think Sing has a fair shot at becoming at least an average major leaguer... we'll see if I'm wrong.
Posted
Well I guess we will have to agree to disagree on him. I tend to favor "numbers" guys over "potential" guys, and I favor guys with a well-developed sense of the strike zone over guys whose plate discipline is marginal.

 

So do I. But if you're looking at numbers guys, one of the first things you have to consider and lend a huge amount of weight to is age relative to the league. And Sing is old. Secondly, strikeouts for me are a big factor, and Sing does quite a bit too much of it. Strikeouts suppress average, and they mean that to be an impact player you need to have obscene plate discipline and power. Does Sing have enough plate discipline and power that it projects to carry over in similar quantities to the major leagues? Because it'll need to if he's only hitting .260, and that's what his K's will do to him once he reaches the majors.

 

And it's not so much about "potential" guys. It's about looking at a player's game and seeing how it ties in which the numbers that he puts up and therefore what he projects to. Not doing so would be negligent. Why is Sing striking out so much? Does he have poor hand eye co-ordination? Does he swing hard even with two strikes? Does he chase outside the zone? Does he have a long swing? Does he have problems hitting a certain pitch? I don't know, never seen him play, but you can't just say with a prospect "he's hitting .298/.406/.586 in his second shot at Double-A aged 24, therefore he's a good one".

Posted

Let me get this straight Diffusion.. you are going to have a conversation about Brandon Sing, how much of a prospect he is or isn't.. and you haven't seen him play a game??

 

I am sooooo sick and tired of hearing fans talk about how good this prospect is or how bad that prospect is when in fact these same fans haven't seen this person play one game. How the heck do you know how good or bad of a player Sing is if you haven't seen him play? Numbers don't give you the entire story about a players ability to perform.

 

If you saw Sing play in 2003 and looked at him two years later, you would know that his performance has been dramatically better. He put up ridiculous numbers in High-A ball in 2004 and could very well break the Diamond Jaxx all-time record for most homers in a season in 2005. Is Sing a prospect at this point? Absolutely he is. Oh and one other thing, 24 is not "ancient" in Double-A ball. It's a year above the average age (23 is the average age).

 

Something else every fan needs to know about Double-A ball. The Southern League is very much a PITCHERS LEAGUE. To take it a step further, Pringles Park is a PITCHERS HAVEN.. In the seven years of baseball at West Tenn only TWO players have ever hit .300 for an entire season (Richard Lewis and Micah Hoffpauir in 2004). Sing is within reach of the .300 average as well as the all-time Jaxx record for homers.

 

Bottom line is this. Please don't talk about a player unless you have seen that person play. Otherwise, you have no clue what you are talking about.

Posted
Let me get this straight Diffusion.. you are going to have a conversation about Brandon Sing, how much of a prospect he is or isn't.. and you haven't seen him play a game??

 

I am sooooo sick and tired of hearing fans talk about how good this prospect is or how bad that prospect is when in fact these same fans haven't seen this person play one game. How the heck do you know how good or bad of a player Sing is if you haven't seen him play? Numbers don't give you the entire story about a players ability to perform.

 

If you saw Sing play in 2003 and looked at him two years later, you would know that his performance has been dramatically better. He put up ridiculous numbers in High-A ball in 2004 and could very well break the Diamond Jaxx all-time record for most homers in a season in 2005. Is Sing a prospect at this point? Absolutely he is. Oh and one other thing, 24 is not "ancient" in Double-A ball. It's a year above the average age (23 is the average age).

 

Something else every fan needs to know about Double-A ball. The Southern League is very much a PITCHERS LEAGUE. To take it a step further, Pringles Park is a PITCHERS HAVEN.. In the seven years of baseball at West Tenn only TWO players have ever hit .300 for an entire season (Richard Lewis and Micah Hoffpauir in 2004). Sing is within reach of the .300 average as well as the all-time Jaxx record for homers.

 

Bottom line is this. Please don't talk about a player unless you have seen that person play. Otherwise, you have no clue what you are talking about.

 

Amen...

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Numbers don't give you the entire story about a players ability to perform.

Agreed. Just like seeing a player play doesn't tell you the entire story about his ability to perform either.

 

Bottom line is this. Please don't talk about a player unless you have seen that person play. Otherwise, you have no clue what you are talking about.

You're free to dismiss Diffusion's opinion because he hasn't seen Sing play, he's free to express it, and everyone's free to draw their own conclusions.

Posted
When talkin about Sing's age relative to the league, I think its also very important to remember why it's taken him a bit longer to make it through the system. If I'm not mistaken, Sing had quite the sickness to deal with. This sickness essentially shot his 2003 into bits. For this reason, I don't think its fair to say "he's 24, so too old to be a top prospect." It has taken him longer to advance through the system than some because of a reason entirely unrelated to his baseball skills.
Posted

On K's:

 

I'm not convinced that Sing's strikeouts are a problem, especially since he walks so much. How many of us would love to have Adam Dunn's production on the Cubbies? Well, compare stats:

 

Sing: 300 AB, 60 BB, 84 Ks, .410 OBP, .580 Slugging

Dunn: 326 AB, 72 BB, 104 Ks, .396 OBP, .583 Slugging

 

 

(BTW, has anyone seen Tim lately? I haven't noticed any posts from him in a long time.)

Posted

Nobody should be concerned with Sing's strikeouts. He makes up for it with his ability to get walks. He has a very good on-base percentage because of his very good knowledge of the strike zone.

 

1908, you made an interesting statement when you said, "Seeing a player doesn't give you the entire story about his ability to perform." I thought about that and came to the conclusion that it certainly applies to the fans, but not to the broadcasters and here is why. While the average fan gets to see Sing play on a 70 game basis at Pringles Park, I get a chance to see him play 140 games. While the average fan can't see Sing take BP at Pringles Park, I get to see him take BP and fielding everyday and I also have the coaches at my disposal to ask questions about his abilites, something the average fan doesn't have. In short, I'll take my chances on my opinion about Brandon Sing being a prospect over someone who has never once seen him play the game.

 

Having said that, I will apoligize to Diffusion and anyone else that I might have offended when I was on my soapbox. Diffusion has every right to say what he (or she) thinks. I would hope, however, that when a person says something about a players prospect status, they would at the very least have seen the person play before forming an opinion.

Posted
Let me get this straight Diffusion.. you are going to have a conversation about Brandon Sing, how much of a prospect he is or isn't.. and you haven't seen him play a game??

 

I am sooooo sick and tired of hearing fans talk about how good this prospect is or how bad that prospect is when in fact these same fans haven't seen this person play one game. How the heck do you know how good or bad of a player Sing is if you haven't seen him play? Numbers don't give you the entire story about a players ability to perform.

 

Which, with all due respect, Ron, I've said pretty much one thing and one thing only about Sing that's subjective, and that's that he's "an okay prospect". I'm not quite sure why this infuriates you so much. I don't need to broadcast the game to be able to come to such a conclusion. You can look at the numbers, you can hear what people who have seen him play have said, yourself included, you can read BA, John Sickels, scouting reports, there are a lot of ways of finding out about a player besides going to the game.

 

Every single other thing that I've said in this thread about Brandon Sing has been to dispute Truffle's usage of numbers, which I think is slightly flawed. I haven't tried to pass off numbers as the be all and end all - in fact, quite the opposite. I said very specifically that "it's about looking at a player's game and seeing how it ties in which the numbers that he puts up and therefore what he projects to." I made it just as clear that I don't know exactly how things do tie in with regards to Sing.

 

The rest of what I've said has been disputing numbers and usage of numbers, not passing judgement on Sing's abilities. I know how to use numbers. They tell you quite a bit, and they're a great predictive tool if you know what you're looking for. Sure, it's not ideal that I can't watch the Jaxx games, or any other minor league games for that matter, it'd be great to be getting a fuller picture. But what do you want me to do? Commute 4000 miles every day? I find that your broadcasts quite suffice actually, they're excellent.

 

I also find it ironic that you state "numbers don't give you the entire story...", and then argue your case using, er, numbers, just numbers...

 

He put up ridiculous numbers in High-A ball in 2004 and could very well break the Diamond Jaxx all-time record for most homers in a season in 2005. Is Sing a prospect at this point? Absolutely he is. Oh and one other thing, 24 is not "ancient" in Double-A ball. It's a year above the average age (23 is the average age).

 

Something else every fan needs to know about Double-A ball. The Southern League is very much a PITCHERS LEAGUE. To take it a step further, Pringles Park is a PITCHERS HAVEN.. In the seven years of baseball at West Tenn only TWO players have ever hit .300 for an entire season (Richard Lewis and Micah Hoffpauir in 2004). Sing is within reach of the .300 average as well as the all-time Jaxx record for homers.

 

All of which is true. I've already retracted by "ancient" comment, which was as much an exaggeration as Truffle's original "he's a little old for his league", and which did undermine my point. But my point is that being a) 24, b) drafted out of high school and c) in Double-A makes him more than just "a little old for his league". You're not wrong, the average age for Double-A is 23. However, I'd be willing to stake quite a bit of money on the average age of high school drafted players in Double-A being lower. Well, high school drafted players in Double-A that are still prospects.

 

And, incidentally, I'm well aware of the park factors involved with the Cubs' minor league system. Besides Peoria, actually, I'm not entirely sure how that plays.

 

I'm not convinced that Sing's strikeouts are a problem, especially since he walks so much. How many of us would love to have Adam Dunn's production on the Cubbies? Well, compare stats:

 

Sing: 300 AB, 60 BB, 84 Ks, .410 OBP, .580 Slugging

Dunn: 326 AB, 72 BB, 104 Ks, .396 OBP, .583 Slugging

 

Compare levels and ages:

 

Sing: 24: Double-A

Dunn: 25: Majors

 

Slight difference. The point is that Sing is going to have to continue to show herculean levels of power and patience at the major league level, as Adam Dunn does, if he's to be a productive hitter at 1B in spite of hitting for a low average. That's a whole lot easier said than done.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
1908, you made an interesting statement when you said, "Seeing a player doesn't give you the entire story about his ability to perform." I thought about that and came to the conclusion that it certainly applies to the fans, but not to the broadcasters and here is why.

I was just suggesting that statistics are a valuable tool to evaluate prospects in addition to scouting -- like Sing's on-base percentage, for instance.

 

He has a very good on-base percentage because of his very good knowledge of the strike zone.

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