Are we better?

NukeLaloosh · December 21, 2005

I know that the off season is not over with (God, please don't let it be) but I was hoping to solicit some opinions on how much better than we were last year. I actually think we've made a decent jump despite the fact that I think Hendry hasn't done very much right yet.

1b - Lee - probably get less offensively, same defensively

2b - Walker - same

ss- Cedeno - I have to think we'll get more offensively than the Neifi/Nomar combo last year or at least comprable. And Cedeno is a solid defensive player.

3b - Ramirez - same/same and hopefully healthy all year

LF - Murton - has to superior on both sides to Dubois/Holly/Gerut/Lawton

CF - Pierre - better offensively by a LONG shot over Patterson, lose some defensively over CP but probably gain over JH

RF - Jones - slight decrease in both areas imo

C - Barrett - same/same

The bullpen, while overpriced, is much more solid and deep. And I would hope we get more starts from Wood and Prior in 2006 than we did in 2005. I think Zambrano can actually improve. Maddux and Rusch are question marks as to how they'll perform compared to 2005.

I think this team is a little better defensively with Cedeno, a healthy ARam, and a speedier outfield. I also think the bullpen is stronger and combined with improved defense could make the starting pitchers' numbers a little better. The primary concern, of course, is where the runs are going to come from consistently. If Dusty isn't an idiot and plays and bats Pierre and Walker in front of DLee and ARam; that could lead to a slightly improved offensive club.

I have not taken into account Dusty's moronic manuevers in this analysis.

I don't think we're good enough, but I think we're improved.

Blueheart05 · December 21, 2005

Hmmm, this is a transaction? :lol:

louisvillecub · December 21, 2005

I know that the off season is not over with (God, please don't let it be) but I was hoping to solicit some opinions on how much better than we were last year. I actually think we've made a decent jump despite the fact that I think Hendry hasn't done very much right yet.

1b - Lee - probably get less offensively, same defensively
2b - Walker - same
ss- Cedeno - I have to think we'll get more offensively than the Neifi/Nomar combo last year or at least comprable. And Cedeno is a solid defensive player.
3b - Ramirez - same/same and hopefully healthy all year
LF - Murton - has to superior on both sides to Dubois/Holly/Gerut/Lawton
CF - Pierre - better offensively by a LONG shot over Patterson, lose some defensively over CP but probably gain over JH
RF - Jones - slight decrease in both areas imo
C - Barrett - same/same

The bullpen, while overpriced, is much more solid and deep. And I would hope we get more starts from Wood and Prior in 2006 than we did in 2005. I think Zambrano can actually improve. Maddux and Rusch are question marks as to how they'll perform compared to 2005.

I think this team is a little better defensively with Cedeno, a healthy ARam, and a speedier outfield. I also think the bullpen is stronger and combined with improved defense could make the starting pitchers' numbers a little better. The primary concern, of course, is where the runs are going to come from consistently. If Dusty isn't an idiot and plays and bats Pierre and Walker in front of DLee and ARam; that could lead to a slightly improved offensive club.

I have not taken into account Dusty's moronic manuevers in this analysis.

I don't think we're good enough, but I think we're improved.

Walker will not be starting at 2nd for the cubs.

CardsFanInChiTown · December 21, 2005

I agree, the Cubs as it stands now have a good chance at 90 wins.

goonys evil twin · December 21, 2005

I agree, the Cubs as it stands now have a good chance at 90 wins.

Define good chance. They have a slight chance at 90 wins. They are likely an 82-85 win team.

The lineup will be no better than middle of the road in the NL, and could easily be in the bottom third if Neifi plays and Walker is gone. The pitching staff is possibly top 5, but probably not top 2. That doesn't equate to a good chance for 90 wins in my book. If both your hitting and pitching are top 5, then you have a good chance for 90, but that is not close to the case with the Cubs.

Backtobanks · December 21, 2005

I know that the off season is not over with (God, please don't let it be) but I was hoping to solicit some opinions on how much better than we were last year. I actually think we've made a decent jump despite the fact that I think Hendry hasn't done very much right yet.

1b - Lee - probably get less offensively, same defensively
2b - Walker - same
ss- Cedeno - I have to think we'll get more offensively than the Neifi/Nomar combo last year or at least comprable. And Cedeno is a solid defensive player.
3b - Ramirez - same/same and hopefully healthy all year
LF - Murton - has to superior on both sides to Dubois/Holly/Gerut/Lawton
CF - Pierre - better offensively by a LONG shot over Patterson, lose some defensively over CP but probably gain over JH
RF - Jones - slight decrease in both areas imo
C - Barrett - same/same

The bullpen, while overpriced, is much more solid and deep. And I would hope we get more starts from Wood and Prior in 2006 than we did in 2005. I think Zambrano can actually improve. Maddux and Rusch are question marks as to how they'll perform compared to 2005.

I think this team is a little better defensively with Cedeno, a healthy ARam, and a speedier outfield. I also think the bullpen is stronger and combined with improved defense could make the starting pitchers' numbers a little better. The primary concern, of course, is where the runs are going to come from consistently. If Dusty isn't an idiot and plays and bats Pierre and Walker in front of DLee and ARam; that could lead to a slightly improved offensive club.

I have not taken into account Dusty's moronic manuevers in this analysis.I don't think we're good enough, but I think we're improved.

That's the one thing I worry about. Knowing Dusty, two 0 for 4 games by Murton and Cedeno and we'll see Mabry in LF and Perez at SS. I do think this team has a shot at 90 wins. Hopefully, the Cards will come back down to the 90 win plateau.

CubinNY · December 21, 2005

I agree, the Cubs as it stands now have a good chance at 90 wins.

Based on what? If you say something like that they might be terrible (reversepsychology).

Who knows when Wood will be ready to go, and when he is who know how long before he is good again.

All indications are that Neifie will be starting at 2nd-He had a career year last year and still was less than mediocre

The outfiled was god awful last year, this year it might be merely pathetic.

The bullpen might be better but Eyre and Howry are middle inning guys for a reason. Who knows what will happen in the bullpen. Dempster's high wire act might not play this year.

Lee is likely to regress.

I'd say the Cubs have a chance at 90 wins, but that chance is not good.

NukeLaloosh · December 21, 2005

Well... I think that the following lineup would be ok with a healthy pitching staff:

Pierre

Walker

Lee

ARam

Murton

Jones

Barrett

Cedeno

But with Dusty/Hendry... I'm afraid it'll be:

Pierre

Neifi

Lee

Jones

Aram

Mabry

Barrett

Mystery 2b

I guess my point is that the Cubs have improved and could make a playoff run and their pitching is built for the playoffs.

CardsFanInChiTown · December 21, 2005

I agree, the Cubs as it stands now have a good chance at 90 wins.

Define good chance. They have a slight chance at 90 wins. They are likely an 82-85 win team.

The lineup will be no better than middle of the road in the NL, and could easily be in the bottom third if Neifi plays and Walker is gone. The pitching staff is possibly top 5, but probably not top 2. That doesn't equate to a good chance for 90 wins in my book. If both your hitting and pitching are top 5, then you have a good chance for 90, but that is not close to the case with the Cubs.

According to BP the 05 Cubs should have finished with about 85-86 wins:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

Now they've upgraded their team. Plus the Cards and Astros should decline.

goonys evil twin · December 21, 2005

According to BP the 05 Cubs should have finished with about 85-86 wins:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

Now they've upgraded their team. Plus the Cards and Astros should decline.

That was the same BS line in 2004, they went from 88 to 89 wins. I'd say the odds are very strong the Cubs are at 89 wins or below. Again, define good chance.

anemic offense · December 21, 2005

I agree, the Cubs as it stands now have a good chance at 90 wins.

Define good chance. They have a slight chance at 90 wins. They are likely an 82-85 win team.

The lineup will be no better than middle of the road in the NL, and could easily be in the bottom third if Neifi plays and Walker is gone. The pitching staff is possibly top 5, but probably not top 2. That doesn't equate to a good chance for 90 wins in my book. If both your hitting and pitching are top 5, then you have a good chance for 90, but that is not close to the case with the Cubs.

I'd say we have a good chance. However the two biggest determining factors, IMO, are the BP and the starting pitching health. And although this IS a different season, we haven't had both in tandem since the 2001 season. If you predicate the chances based on that fact then I guess it may not be that likely (although I don't).

The funny thing is, as SAD as our offense has been I don't even think that's the main problem. If the other aspects end up being okay, we just need to be fundamentally sound more than anything else(Our defense, speed, and baseball acumen seem to have improved dramatically). Personally, I see a good offense (assuming the other things take care of themslevses, for argments' sake) being the difference between a successful season (win wise), and a playoff caliber season. It's attainable, but it's BY FAR not a sure thing, if not a little bit of a stretch.

anemic offense · December 21, 2005

I'd also feel much more confident/optimistic if we had an even remotely capable coaching staff (its pry the worst in baseball).

NukeLaloosh · December 21, 2005

I agree, the Cubs as it stands now have a good chance at 90 wins.

Based on what? If you say something like that they might be terrible (reversepsychology).

Who knows when Wood will be ready to go, and when he is who know how long before he is good again.

All indications are that Neifie will be starting at 2nd-He had a career year last year and still was less than mediocre

The outfiled was god awful last year, this year it might be merely pathetic.

The bullpen might be better but Eyre and Howry are middle inning guys for a reason. Who knows what will happen in the bullpen. Dempster's high wire act might not play this year.

Lee is likely to regress.

I'd say the Cubs have a chance at 90 wins, but that chance is not good.

1. Any prediction of the Cubs doing well has to include a healthy, effective Wood. We HAVE to assume that's the way he'll be because it's the only way the Cubs reach their goal.

2. As long as Walker is on the team, I think it is fair to forecast him as the starting 2b. He's the best option.

3. Outfield is improved offensively and defensively. That's all that matters. We are talking about improvements from 2005 Cubs not how they stack up against the rest of MLB.

4. I think you can absolutely say that the bullpen is improved. Even average career #'s from Howry and Eyre as well as slight improvements from guys who got work last year will lead to a much better pen.

5. Lee is likely to regress but he's also likely to have better people batting in front of him all year long.

You can spin it any way you want with just about any team.

CardsFanInChiTown · December 21, 2005

According to BP the 05 Cubs should have finished with about 85-86 wins:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

Now they've upgraded their team. Plus the Cards and Astros should decline.

That was the same BS line in 2004, they went from 88 to 89 wins. I'd say the odds are very strong the Cubs are at 89 wins or below. Again, define good chance.

You can call it BS but I don't think it is.

As it stands now they very good chance considering how how bad the Astros and Cards offseason has been. Hopefully the Cards will turn things around.

goonys evil twin · December 21, 2005

According to BP the 05 Cubs should have finished with about 85-86 wins:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

Now they've upgraded their team. Plus the Cards and Astros should decline.

That was the same BS line in 2004, they went from 88 to 89 wins. I'd say the odds are very strong the Cubs are at 89 wins or below. Again, define good chance.

You can call it BS but I don't think it is.

As it stands now they very good chance considering how how bad the Astros and Cards offseason has been. Hopefully the Cards will turn things around.

What do the Cards and Astros have to do with the Cubs chances of 90 wins? They did pretty well against those teams head to head last year and still only won 79. If STL and HOU fall back this year then that improves their chances to win the division, but not get 90 wins.

CubinNY · December 21, 2005

As it stands now they very good chance considering how how bad the Astros and Cards offseason has been. Hopefully the Cards will turn things around.

You seem to keep forgeting there are other teams in the divison and the rest of the national league besides the Cardinals and Astros.

CardsFanInChiTown · December 21, 2005

As it stands now they very good chance considering how how bad the Astros and Cards offseason has been. Hopefully the Cards will turn things around.

You seem to keep forgeting there are other teams in the divison and the rest of the national league besides the Cardinals and Astros.

As it stand now there are 3 teams I could see taking the central. The Cards, Cubs and Brewers. The Cubs were a 85 win team last year and they have improved. It's not a strech to see them winning 90 games.

ConstableRabbit · December 21, 2005

As it stands now they very good chance considering how how bad the Astros and Cards offseason has been. Hopefully the Cards will turn things around.

You seem to keep forgeting there are other teams in the divison and the rest of the national league besides the Cardinals and Astros.

Additionally, the Cardinals and Astros sucking doesn't make us better - it only lowers the bar for the division. The worst thing I can see happening is us somehow winning the division with a San Diego-type total, meaning Dusty and Hendry would take the credit and end up sticking around even though the team regressed.

CardsFanInChiTown · December 21, 2005

According to BP the 05 Cubs should have finished with about 85-86 wins:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

Now they've upgraded their team. Plus the Cards and Astros should decline.

That was the same BS line in 2004, they went from 88 to 89 wins. I'd say the odds are very strong the Cubs are at 89 wins or below. Again, define good chance.

You can call it BS but I don't think it is.

As it stands now they very good chance considering how how bad the Astros and Cards offseason has been. Hopefully the Cards will turn things around.

What do the Cards and Astros have to do with the Cubs chances of 90 wins? They did pretty well against those teams head to head last year and still only won 79. If STL and HOU fall back this year then that improves their chances to win the division, but not get 90 wins.

The Cards and Astros play the Cubs a lot. If they aren't as good that means more wins for the Cubs. It's reasonable to think they will also improve against other teams.

TB_11 · December 21, 2005

I agree, the Cubs as it stands now have a good chance at 90 wins.

I wouldn't call it a good chance. Given the offseason, Hendry has basically placed all his chips on the starting pitching holding up. If Prior, Zambrano, and Wood can contribute 30 solid starts each, if Maddux can hold his late-career regression, and if Wililams/Rusch can be solid fifth starters for us, than yes we have a chance at 90 wins.

But given the futility of this offseason, there's no way the current offense can carry us to 90 wins if those things don't happen.

goonys evil twin · December 21, 2005

The Cards and Astros play the Cubs a lot. If they aren't as good that means more wins for the Cubs. It's reasonable to think they will also improve against other teams.

I think it's unreasonable to think they'll get much more than the 19 wins they had against those two teams last year. They've done no better than tread water against much of the rest of the league. I think 82-85 is a realistic, and 90 would be close to best case scenario, as it stands now.

CardsFanInChiTown · December 21, 2005

The Cards and Astros play the Cubs a lot. If they aren't as good that means more wins for the Cubs. It's reasonable to think they will also improve against other teams.

I think it's unreasonable to think they'll get much more than the 19 wins they had against those two teams last year. They've done no better than tread water against much of the rest of the league. I think 82-85 is a realistic, and 90 would be close to best case scenario, as it stands now.

And I think they were a 86 win team last year and they have improved upon that team.

goonys evil twin · December 21, 2005

The Cards and Astros play the Cubs a lot. If they aren't as good that means more wins for the Cubs. It's reasonable to think they will also improve against other teams.

I think it's unreasonable to think they'll get much more than the 19 wins they had against those two teams last year. They've done no better than tread water against much of the rest of the league. I think 82-85 is a realistic, and 90 would be close to best case scenario, as it stands now.

And I think they were a 86 win team last year and they have improved upon that team.

Except they were a 79 win team and the improvements have been marginal at best.

Mizzou · December 21, 2005

Yes, we are absolutely an improved team. No doubt about it.

minnesotacubsfan · December 21, 2005

The Cards and Astros play the Cubs a lot. If they aren't as good that means more wins for the Cubs. It's reasonable to think they will also improve against other teams.

I think it's unreasonable to think they'll get much more than the 19 wins they had against those two teams last year. They've done no better than tread water against much of the rest of the league. I think 82-85 is a realistic, and 90 would be close to best case scenario, as it stands now.

And I think they were a 86 win team last year and they have improved upon that team.

how many of these 7 wins that we actually loss can be attributed to the closer-by-comittee in the early season?

and the macias factor?

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