Mock Headline

HoopsCubs · September 18, 2006

Some free time on my day off...

Chicago - In an early offseason move that could surely shake up the NL Central in 2007 and years to come, the Chicago Cubs traded their highly touted franchise prospect, OF Felix Pie, and promising pitchers Sean Marshall and Carlos Marmol to the Atlanta Braves for CF Andruw Jones and starting pitcher Tim Hudson. In addition to the players, the Braves agreed to send the Cubs $11M in cash ($5M in 2008 and $6M in 2009) to help with Hudson's contract.

The Cubs will be on the hook for $22M of Hudson's remaining 3 years and $33M, which includes $6M in 2007, and will owe Jones his entire $13.5M in 2007, his final year before free agency. The Cubs made the deal without getting Jones to agree to an extension similar to the Juan Pierre deal last year. Cubs GM, Jim Hendry, said, "Andruw represents a huge defensive and offensive boost to our club's chances in 2007; we're pretty confident we can have a good dialogue with him and his agents during the spring." Hudson has suffered through a few injuries and has not been as dominant as he was in the AL, but Hendry pointed out, "the fact that he pitched over 200 innings and is relatively young will be a big boost for our rotation, which has been decimated by injuries over the last 2+ seasons." Hudson will probably slot into the #2 spot in the rotation behind Cubs ace, Carlos Zambrano.

While the deal will probably have negative impact on the Braves chances to get to the post-season in 2007, it does give them tremendous financial flexibility to re-build their team after a tough season in 2006. Not having to pay Jones and Hudson a combined $20M in 2007 and freeing up another $15M over the next 2 seasons does give Atlanta an opportunity to re-up with John Smoltz, and to find another impact bat and arm. Braves officials did not offer any explanation for the sudden trade, but one source close to the organization, on the condition of anonymity, made it clear that the team had come to the conclusion that trading Jones was imperative because there was no way he and the team could agree on an extension. It was believed that the Red Sox would be the front-runners for Jones, but the Braves could not turn down the Cubs offer when they were willing to part with Pie and take on a significant portion of Hudson's salary.

BigbadB · September 18, 2006

I wouldn't mind that trade, actually. Any way to get Giles, too?

CuseCubFan69 · September 18, 2006

I'm curious if the Cubs do decide on Gonzalez on what his feelings would be towards this trade.

It's nice to see that you have a day off Hoops!

vance_the_cubs_fan · September 18, 2006

I could live with that trade.

The Cubs would have a rotation of:

Zambrano, Hudson, Prior, Hill + ? (Guzman, Ryu, Mateo...).

The Cubs would need to sign a 2b better than Cedeno, but there are enough on the market.

Jones, Lee, and Ramirez would make a formidable middle of the order.

Andy · September 18, 2006

That would be a tremendous trade if the Cubs could swing it.

CheeseHead Cubs Fan · September 18, 2006

I could live with that trade.

The Cubs would have a rotation of:
Zambrano, Hudson, Prior, Hill + ? (Guzman, Ryu, Mateo...).

The Cubs would need to sign a 2b better than Cedeno, but there are enough on the market.

Jones, Lee, and Ramirez would make a formidable middle of the order.

Moving forward it may be a good idea to keep Prior out of the rotation. He has done nothing to prove he will be healthy now or in the future.

soccer10k · September 18, 2006

I guess the question would be, is this just a bad season for Hudson or is it going to become a trend?

HoopsCubs · September 18, 2006

It's nice to see that you have a day off Hoops!

Thanks. First one since May 16. I plan to take a few more in the Fall after a tough work-filled summer.

JeffH · September 18, 2006

As if Andruw Jones would ever waive his 10&5 rights to come to this trainwreck...

CuseCubFan69 · September 18, 2006

As if Andruw Jones would ever waive his 10&5 rights to come to this trainwreck...

He may have a rubberneck so it's possible.

NorthsideAvenger · September 18, 2006

Marshall/Pie/Marmol .v. Hudson/Jones

With the Braves paying $11 million over the next 2yrs, and the Cubs eating ALL of AJ $13.5 mill, am I correct in your scenario Hoops?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4084

Here's is Huddy's numbers, and it seems to me that Hudson has gotten worse since 2003, and I believe he is BADLY overrated. So right now, Hudson's "numbers" suggest he is closer to a #4, then a #2. So, if---by under you scenerio---the Cubs are interested in Hudson, and help ATL money situation, the Braves would have to:

A: Eat about 2 to 3 million on AJ's contract.....or

B: Settle for lesser pitchers then Marshall/Marmol.

I'm fine with trading Pie (provided AJ signs an extension), but unless the Braves eat more of both Hudson or AJ contract, the Braves would have to settle for say....Juan Mateo/Grant Johnson/Adam Harben/Jose Ceda type young pitchers.

I'm not saying Marmol or Marshall are untouchable, but I wouldn't trade either of them for a mediocre #2 pitcher. Now if the Braves added Marcus Giles to the deal, maybe, but only AJ and Hudson, I'd pause if I was the Cubs.

A New Era · September 18, 2006

Hey, I'm not the only one salivating for the off-season. Let's make up some more mock trades and signings!! This is fun!! WoHOOOO!!

I'm not being sarcastic.

September 18, 2006

As if Andruw Jones would ever waive his 10&5 rights to come to this trainwreck...

He's a 10 year vet? I didn't think he was 29 yet.

-- edit

That's right. I remember the rumor about him being traded back in August because he was going to get those rights.

Huh. He's older than I thought.

Brian · September 18, 2006

toss in Giles from Braves and Epatt from cubs. Then the Marlins and Braves can fight over the NL East with their already good systems supplemented with our top prospects.

September 19, 2006

As if Andruw Jones would ever waive his 10&5 rights to come to this trainwreck...

money talks.

September 19, 2006

I guess the question would be, is this just a bad season for Hudson or is it going to become a trend?

its been a trend for a few years now.

VanceJergins · September 19, 2006

Thanks to goony for pointing out this thread. I mentioned in my irrelevent thread that if the Cubs made this trade then signed Loretta, they would be pretty solid. A line up of Loretta, Murton, Lee, A.Jones, Ramirez, J.Jones, Barrett, Izturis/ Theriot has a lot of potential. Add in a rotation of Zambrano, Hill, Hudson, Prior, young guy/ Miller/ FA like Meche or Padilla, and that looks like a contending team. Edited September 19, 2006 by VanceJergins

goonys evil twin · September 19, 2006

I guess the question would be, is this just a bad season for Hudson or is it going to become a trend?

its been a trend for a few years now.

I think this is Hudson's first legitimately bad season, but the trend is in the wrong direction.

Career ERA+

149

114

129

156

158

133

125

???

WHIP

2003- 1.075

2004- 1.261

2005- 1.349

2006- 1,441

Career ERA - 3.52

2005 ERA - 3.52

2006 ERA - 4.83

VanceJergins · September 19, 2006

I guess the question would be, is this just a bad season for Hudson or is it going to become a trend?

its been a trend for a few years now.

ERA's of 3.52, 3.53, 2.70, 2.98 arent exactly horrible. He may not be as good as he used to be, but I'll take an ERA of 3.50'ish. Any year previous to this year and he'd be in the top 8 in the NL. But the original question remains, are his 2006 stats going to become a trend?

Transmogrified Tiger · September 19, 2006

Hudson's 2006 looks pretty fluky. Compared to 2005, he has a very similar batting line against, a similar K rate and walk rate, a simlar FIP, and his batted balls aren't much different. However, this is the second year he's been worse than his time in Oakland, coinciding with his move to the NL. So I don't think his 2006 performance is here to stay(ERA and WHIP-wise at least), but I don't think you see him return to his AL levels.

NorthsideAvenger · September 20, 2006

Hudson's 2006 looks pretty fluky. Compared to 2005, he has a very similar batting line against, a similar K rate and walk rate, a simlar FIP, and his batted balls aren't much different. However, this is the second year he's been worse than his time in Oakland, coinciding with his move to the NL. So I don't think his 2006 performance is here to stay(ERA and WHIP-wise at least), but I don't think you see him return to his AL levels.

Since 03, Hudson has become MORE hittable, he gives more walks, he strikes out few and few. In other words....as of 2006, Tim Hudson is a VERY MEDIOCRE #2 pitcher, and more likely at this stage is closer to being a #4 pitcher, then a #2. Wade Miller can give same type of production at a fraction of the cost. So unless ATL is willing to eat over 60% of Hudson's contract, I wouldn't even talk about trying to get Hudson.

goonys evil twin · September 20, 2006

Hudson's 2006 looks pretty fluky. Compared to 2005, he has a very similar batting line against, a similar K rate and walk rate, a simlar FIP, and his batted balls aren't much different. However, this is the second year he's been worse than his time in Oakland, coinciding with his move to the NL. So I don't think his 2006 performance is here to stay(ERA and WHIP-wise at least), but I don't think you see him return to his AL levels.

Since 03, Hudson has become MORE hittable, he gives more walks, he strikes out few and few. In other words....as of 2006, Tim Hudson is a VERY MEDIOCRE #2 pitcher, and more likely at this stage is closer to being a #4 pitcher, then a #2. Wade Miller can give same type of production at a fraction of the cost. So unless ATL is willing to eat over 60% of Hudson's contract, I wouldn't even talk about trying to get Hudson.

Maybe Miller can give you the same type of production, but it's not very likely.

RynoRules · September 20, 2006

Sign me up, with a small reservation re the Hudson trend discussed above.

Transmogrified Tiger · September 20, 2006

Hudson's 2006 looks pretty fluky. Compared to 2005, he has a very similar batting line against, a similar K rate and walk rate, a simlar FIP, and his batted balls aren't much different. However, this is the second year he's been worse than his time in Oakland, coinciding with his move to the NL. So I don't think his 2006 performance is here to stay(ERA and WHIP-wise at least), but I don't think you see him return to his AL levels.

Since 03, Hudson has become MORE hittable, he gives more walks, he strikes out few and few. In other words....as of 2006, Tim Hudson is a VERY MEDIOCRE #2 pitcher, and more likely at this stage is closer to being a #4 pitcher, then a #2. Wade Miller can give same type of production at a fraction of the cost. So unless ATL is willing to eat over 60% of Hudson's contract, I wouldn't even talk about trying to get Hudson.

That's just not true. 2003 was a career year for Hudson, using that going forward as a comparison to show a decline is pretty deceiving. His K's have stayed similar, his walks have stayed similar since coming to the NL, and his BAA has been similar. His peripherals show his 2006 ERA and WHIP are pretty unlikely to repeat, that he's more than a 4 starter, and that he's most certainly better than Wade Miller.

HoopsCubs · September 20, 2006

Maybe Miller can give you the same type of production, but it's not very likely.

I wonder if Hendry sees Zambrano, Hill and Miller as his 1,3, and 5. If so, might Padilla and Lilly be candidates for 2 and 4?

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