BA's FSL Top 20

CaliforniaRaisin · October 4, 2007

Two Cubs:

1. Jay Bruce, of, Sarasota Reds

2. Cameron Maybin, of, Lakeland Flying Tigers (Tigers)

3. Jake McGee, lhp, Vero Beach Devil Rays

4. Wade Davis, rhp, Vero Beach Devil Rays

5. Johnny Cueto, rhp, Sarasota Reds

6. Carlos Carrasco, rhp, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)

7. Ian Kennedy, rhp, Tampa Yankees

8. Deolis Guerra, rhp, St. Lucie Mets

9. Jose Tabata, of, Tampa Yankees

10. Austin Jackson, of, Tampa Yankees

11. Chris Volstad, rhp, Jupiter Hammerheads (Marlins)

12. Alcides Escobar, ss, Brevard County Manatees (Brewers)

13. Tyler Colvin, of, Daytona Cubs

14. Josh Outman, lhp, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)

15. Adam Ottavino, rhp, Palm Beach Cardinals

16. Brett Sinkbeil, rhp, Jupiter Hammerheads (Marlins)

17. Frank Cervelli, c, Tampa Yankees

18. Eduardo Morlan, rhp, Fort Myers Miracle (Twins)

19. Jeff Samardzija, rhp, Daytona Cubs

20. Rhyne Hughes, 1b, Jupiter Hammerheads (Marlins)

BaseballAmerica.com[/url]"]13. Tyler Colvin, of, Daytona Cubs
B-T: L-L Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 190 Age: 21 Drafted: Cubs '06 (1)
Colvin showed his ability to make adjustments as the season went along. Though the statistics don't really reflect it, several managers felt that he chased too many pitches early in the year before settling down. He has a nice natural stroke with the ability to drive the ball to the opposite field.

He stays inside the ball well, though Colvin has yet to pull inside pitches on a consistent basis. For now he's more content to line doubles the other way. He has slightly above-average speed, and he shows solid instincts on the bases to go with good jumps and routes in center field.

While he made it to Double-A in his first full pro year, the athletic Colvin is still very much a work in progress. He needs to learn the strike zone better and show more patience.

19. Jeff Samardzija, rhp, Daytona Cubs
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-5 Wt.: 218 Age: 21 Drafted: Cubs '06 (5)
Samardzija struggled with his command and secondary pitches in the FSL, and the results were ugly. He had a 45-35 K-BB ratio in 107 innings, and FSL hitters batted .323 against him.

So why is he on this list? The reality is that Samardzija was over his head in the FSL in his first full pro season after being more of a football player at Notre Dame. He's an outstanding athlete with an easy delivery, long arms and the frame to soak up innings.

Samardzija gained velocity as the season went along, and he threw harder (94-96 mph) after a promotion to Double-A. His two-seam fastball has boring action that should lead to plenty of groundballs once he improves his location.

He needs to sharpen his loopy curveball and refine his changeup so hitters can't sit on his fastball. He may be a long ways away, but his arm gives him the chance to be special.

October 4, 2007

JJ Cooper will do a chat at 1:30 pm CT: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/chat/chat.php?id=2007100401

TruffleShuffle · October 4, 2007

thought atkins might make it too... oh well

Transmogrified Tiger · October 4, 2007

thought atkins might make it too... oh well

Yeah, that seems like a pretty huge oversight. Atkins isn't a guy who's getting by on smoke and mirrors, and he was pretty dominant performance-wise for Daytona.

October 4, 2007

He was passed over for the MWL last year too and came in at #29 in BA's Cubs top 30. It seems like BA isn't a big fan. Guys like Ottavino, Sinkbeil and Samardzija are better prospects. Reading the description for Morlan, I'm not sure that he sounds that much better than Atkins.

rawaction · October 4, 2007

He was passed over for the MWL last year too and came in at #29 in BA's Cubs top 30. It seems like BA isn't a big fan. Guys like Ottavino, Sinkbeil and Samardzija are better prospects. Reading the description for Morlan, I'm not sure that he sounds that much better than Atkins.

I'd have to imagine he's about 22 or so. Can't justify him being much lower.

October 4, 2007

Q: Jeff from California asks:
Does Colvin's BBK ratios raise big red flags or does he seem talented and mature enough that a gradual change in approach will come in the next year or two. Secondly, will he stick in CF or end up on one of the corners?

A: J.J. Cooper: It's a concern, but we're talking about a guy who was playing in his first full pro season. Guys were already impressed with the adjustments he made during his time in FSL. The first time around the league he was chasing pitches, but he showed more willingness to lay off balls on his second time around the league (even though his strikeout numbers didn't show a big difference). I think Colvin could start out as a big league CF, but he's likely to eventually grow into a corner outfielder as he has the frame to add some solid weight.

Q: Jon from Peoria asks:
Do you think Samardzija will be a starter or reliever ultimately? And do you think Mitch Atkins has the stuff to make it as a back of the rotation starter?

A: J.J. Cooper: He's got the body to be an innings-eating starter, but I'd guess he's more likely to end up as a reliever who can get plenty of ground balls. More than anyone else on this list Samardzija is a complete enigma. I really don't know what to think of him. We had reports that his velo jumped after his promotion to Double-A to 95-96 mph, which explains why he was better in the Southern League than the Florida State League. He still has a long ways to go and has to develop confidence in his secondary pitches, but he does have a special arm.

Q: Matt from Minneapolis, MN asks:
Jeff Manship Also outpitched Samardzija in the FSL this year. Which of these two former Irish hits the majors first?

A: J.J. Cooper: Because of the Twins' surplus of pitching prospects I'd predict Samardzija gets there first. Projecting long-term Samardzija is a much riskier pick with a higher ceiling while Manship is more of a sure thing but without less projection left in him.

Q: Bill from New York asks:
Is it time for Cub fans to give up hope on Dopirak and Harvey?

A: J.J. Cooper: The Cubs have come close, taking Dopirak off of their 40-man and finding no one willing to snag him and add him to their 40-man.

CubColtPacer · October 4, 2007

From the way that answer was worded, it sounds like Colvin has just enough speed to play CF right now (they already said in his writeup that the routes he takes are excellent) and as he grows he will have to sacrifice some of that speed for power, which will push him to a corner.

That sounds pretty good to me. Either he doesn't add to his frame and remains at CF, or he will likely gain more power which will make his numbers look better in RF.

badnews · October 5, 2007

After all the talk and money devoted to Jeff, "a reliever who can get groundball outs" sounds pretty underwhelming. Another thing that bothers me is Jeff's G/F ratio isn't that great for the kind of groundball maestro people are hoping for. I believe Gallagher had a better one on his run through the FSL and it's not even close to middling prospects such as Aaron Laffey of the Indians.

In another topic I remember there was a disagreement about whether Colvin would made Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list. Does #13 in the FSL League make it? Some of the guys on these lists are repeated names who've spent time at different levels, but still.

So far this lists aren't changing my mind about the state of the minor leagues. Rather, I keep seeing some teams are really blessed and getting quality prospects with some of their middle round picks. I think it was the Carolina League list, the Devil Rays got some nice looking outfield prospects that were highly ranked, with their 6th and 10th round picks, where by that time we seem to be shopping for the utility men and relievers of the future.

October 5, 2007

In another topic I remember there was a disagreement about whether Colvin would made Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list. Does #13 in the FSL League make it? Some of the guys on these lists are repeated names who've spent time at different levels, but still.

How about #7 in the SL list? He and Vitters will make the top 100, imo. Vitters around 50, Colvin around 75. Hopefully someone else like Gallagher, Samardzija or Soto will sneak in.

badnews · October 6, 2007

How do you know he's #7 on the Southern League list, or are you speculating? I thought it hadn't been released yet.

Hopefully so. I think Soto will do more than sneak in there, I mean, he's not Justin Leone or anything, and the number of quality legitimate catching prospects has been thin lately. I think he'll make it, or he should.

October 6, 2007

How do you know he's #7 on the Southern League list, or are you speculating? I thought it hadn't been released yet.

Hopefully so. I think Soto will do more than sneak in there, I mean, he's not Justin Leone or anything, and the number of quality legitimate catching prospects has been thin lately. I think he'll make it, or he should.

The top 20 lists are all out in print, they're not yet all online.

badnews · October 6, 2007

Where does Soto end up on the PCL list?

October 6, 2007

Where does Soto end up on the PCL list?

Soto was 20, Pie was 6.

badnews · October 7, 2007

I haven't seen the PCL list obviously, and I'm not a big believer that Soto will do awesome things in the majors, but that looks like a pretty low ranking for a guy who put up his numbers at his age, despite repeating the level, even his park/league adjusted numbers are good and there's positional value.

I suppose one way to think of prospect rankings is to yourself "Would I trade Player X for Player Y straight up?" I wouldn't trade Soto for D'Antona, Koshansky, Balentien, Ankiel, Melillo...

Brandon Wood is looking iffy with those strikeouts, and those numbers should be better playing his home games at a launching pad. Daric Barton is "supposed to" develop more power but until he does he just looks like the next Scott Hatteberg.

Maybe I'm giving Soto too many points just for playing catcher and actually being able to stay there.

illiniguy · October 9, 2007

I haven't seen the PCL list obviously, and I'm not a big believer that Soto will do awesome things in the majors, but that looks like a pretty low ranking for a guy who put up his numbers at his age, despite repeating the level, even his park/league adjusted numbers are good and there's positional value.

I suppose one way to think of prospect rankings is to yourself "Would I trade Player X for Player Y straight up?" I wouldn't trade Soto for D'Antona, Koshansky, Balentien, Ankiel, Melillo...

Brandon Wood is looking iffy with those strikeouts, and those numbers should be better playing his home games at a launching pad. Daric Barton is "supposed to" develop more power but until he does he just looks like the next Scott Hatteberg.

Maybe I'm giving Soto too many points just for playing catcher and actually being able to stay there.

They are not an exact science. Heck Raisin posted a thing where 5 years ago Miguel Cabrera was only the 5th best player in his league. Think there ended up being 5 better big leaguers from that league?

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