The NSBB Top 50 prospect list was done differently this year. Instead of just Tim putting his own list together, the entire staff of NSBB writers got together along with special guest Todd Andrews (UK) and collaborated on the effort. The chat discussion that went along with the rankings is located here. The comments on the players were also compiled by the entire team. Enjoy!
| Rank | Last Yr | Player | Comments |
1 |
21 |
Brian Dopirak | Unanimous selection. Not as broad a skill set as Pie, but enormous power. Could be one of the best 1B/Power hitters in the game if he reaches his potential. Not quite of Pujols/Helton caliber, though... perhaps Richie Sexson. Some defensive issues to work out. Could stand to improve his discipline, though his power will likely help him in that regard. |
2 |
4 |
Felix Pie | Loads of talent, but still pretty raw. His all-round tool set means his floor is pretty high, as well as his ceiling. Some concern over whether or not his power will ever develop. Speed should help keep his BA high, but needs more discipline to maintain a good OBP. In summary: Loads of potential with a long way to go to reach it, but sill a lot of time to get there. |
3 |
1 |
Angel Guzman | Was very close to reaching a very high ceiling before the injuries set in. If he bounces back fully and can stay healthy, is good enough to be the #1 prospect. Many lingering health concerns, though. First, will he ever be able to put together a fully healthy season? Hasn't yet. Second, will he recover completely from surgery? May lose some effectiveness after a serious injury. |
4 |
8 |
Ryan Harvey | Higher ceiling than Pie, perhaps… more power and discipline. Farther to go, esp. with injury setbacks. Still hasn’t proven much professionally. Maintaining a healthy K-rate is key. Weak on low & away strikes. Good bat speed, but a long swing. Not atypical of a power hitter, though... Dopirak had similar issues and was able to shorten his swing. |
5 |
14 |
Jason Dubois | Perhaps the surest bet in the system. Not the highest of ceilings but still pretty good. Will very likely be a fair/decent corner OF in the majors. |
6 |
22 |
Billy Petrick | Good sinker, makeup. Loads of potential, but like many high-potential guys he’s not there yet. |
7 |
20 |
Renyel Pinto | Good fastball and change. Pretty close to majors at this point. |
8 |
23 |
Sean Marshall | Good control. Some injury risk. Great curve, but needs a third pitch. Still a long way to go, and a lot left to prove |
9 |
27 |
Jon Leicester | Needs to keep the BB down. Has been able to do that recently, helping fulfill the high reward part of high risk/high reward. Very close to the majors and very close to his ceiling, which isn't terribly high but not bad either. Would make a decent starter, but needs more AAA work for that to happen. |
10 |
Carlos Marmol | Good mid-90s heater. Still pretty young, despite being in the system for a long time. | |
11 |
Grant Johnson | Injury concerns. Little professional experience as yet. Nice mid-90’s fastball, good slider | |
12 |
Matt Murton | Good contact/discipline, but needs to develop more power to make the bigs as an outfielder. Lost some patience after coming to Cubs, but could just be a blip on the radar. Looks to post good OBP, but power is the big concern here… .425 career SLG. Not great in the outfield, weaker arm. Not a lot of speed. Defensive issues may force him to 1B, where he has far less value. | |
13 |
Mike Wuertz | Very good slider. Not many options beyond that, though. Probably limited to a reliever without more of a pitch selection. | |
14 |
9 |
Ricky Nolasco | Not many positives, not may negatives. Good K/BB. Decent stuff... Fastball’s pretty straight, and not much in way of offspeed pitches. Projects as a #4 starter. Strikes out more people than you think he would based on his stuff. Young for his league. |
15 |
Geovanny Soto | Good Defense, decent all-round. Most advanced of the three catchers. Not many strengths, but not a lot of weaknesses, either. Still young for his league. Best bet to reach majors of our catching prospects, but probably the lowest ceiling. | |
16 |
5 |
Bobby Brownlie | Will he ever get his speed back? If not, his MLB future is very doubtful. Pitches don’t have enough movement to survive without a good fastball. (Minor league version of Matt Morris?) Curve has also declined along with his fastball. |
17 |
Richard Lewis | Great 2004 season, but was inflated by a high BABIP. Good defender, has decent speed. Looks to hit for pretty good average. Too many strikeouts for someone who looks to be a contact/speed type hitter. Could be a decent MLB starter. Getting old for a prospect. | |
18 |
Mark Reed | Good contact, OBP for a catcher… hasn’t shown much beyond rookie ball, though. Also has some defensive concerns | |
19 |
19 |
Matt Craig | Craig comes in exactly where he did on last year's prospect list, at #19. The 23-year-old, switch-hitting 3B posted a very similar 2004 season to his 2003 campaign, just a level higher. Decent average, nice patience, and pretty good power (20 HR in the AA Southern League last year). He tends to strike out quite a bit, though that's mitigated by the far amount of walks he's able to work. New news with Craig since the rankings were done...we'll have to see how testing positive for steroids use impacts his future. This could knock him down the list. |
20 |
Ronny Cedeno | In November 2003 Jim Hendry saw fit to add Ronny Cedeno to the Cubs 40-man roster. This left a fair number of Cubs fans scratching their heads. At that point, after all, Cedeno was still a 20-year-old kid who had yet to put up an OPS above .600 at any level above rookie ball. Thankfully, Ronny responded to the organization's confidence by having a breakout 2004 season. While a stat line of .279/.328/.401 may not sound impressive at first, it's actually pretty good for a 21 year old middle infielder seeing his first AA experience. That being said, Ronny still has a lot of room for improvement, particularly his BB/K ratio which hasn't improved at all over the past few seasons. | |
21 |
30 |
Rich Hill | Rich may be an all or nothing type of prospect. The lefty has wicked stuff, particularly a nasty curve ball that he showcased during the last spring game of 2005. It's also helped him amass some massive K totals in the minor leagues. With as much raw stuff as Rich has, his potential is through the roof. Unfortunately, he as two big issues working against him: Age and control problems. Along with all those strikeouts, Rich also walked more batters than is healthy and threw a staggering number of wild pitches. He's also a bit old for where he sits on the minor league totem pole, so he doesn't have a whole lot of room for error. Still, his tremendous upside makes him an exciting prospect to watch. |
22 |
Brandon Sing | Heading into the 2004 season, things were looking pretty grim for Brandon Sing. His 2003 ended on a sour note with terrible numbers at AA West Tennessee. As a result, he began his third consective year at Daytona. How did he respond? With the best power showing any Cub prospect has had in a long, long time. (Except for some guy named Dopirak a level below him, that is.) He mashed 32 HR in a fairly pitcher-friendly league, as well as showing some great plate discipline. His OPS of .970 re-established Sing as a good prospect. He now gets another chance to prove himself with the Jaxx, and hopefully this time he'll continue the strides he made last year. | |
23 |
Jon Connolly | Early last season the Cubs traded Felix Sanchez to the Tigers in exchange for Connolly. Connolly isn't the big, overpowering pitcher many of us have come to associate with the organiztion's young guns, but that doesn't mean he isn't effective. While not overpowering enough to strike out a lot of batters, Jon does to other important things very well; keep the ball in the park and not walk anybody. His K/9 of over 4.0 and ERA of 2.40 at Daytona last season earned him a late-season callup to AA as a 21 year old. While he doesn't have the glamour of some of the Cubs' young power arms, if Connolly can continue missing at least a few bats, his control could easily carry him to the majors. | |
24 |
26 |
Jake Fox | Jake probalby has the most offensive potential of all of our catching prospects, mostly due to very good power for a receiver. Unfortunately, Jake may have a hard time sticking it out at catcher. His defense, while improving, is pretty bad. He really needs to work at blocking pitches better. His plate discipline could also stand some work. If he can make enough strides with his defense to stick at C, he has a good chance at becoming a quality MLB player. If not, his future is doubtful. |
25 |
Mike Fontenot | Fontenot came over from the Orioles as a part of the Sosa trade. He has above-average speed and gap-to-gap power. His defense is limited by his weak range and arm. Offensively, he'll need to cut down on his strikeouts. His offensive numbers have been decent in the minors posting a .288 average and a .346 OBP. Fontenot is behind Lewis in the depth chart and won't pass Walker or Hairston, but he has solid offensive skills and could become a usefull part-time player. | |
26 |
17 |
Luke Hagerty | returned to the Cubs after being picked in the Rule 5 draft, Hagerty still has yet to recover from Tommy John Surgery. Once the closest to the majors of the Cubs 2002, Hagerty has thrown under 25 pitches in the 2 years after TJS. If he can ever get healthy, he's still a 6'7" lefty with a plus fastball, slider, and changeup, and will be a factor in the Cubs system. |
27 |
Robert Novoa | Successful debut as a full-time reliever in AAA in 2004. Fastball jumped from the low-to-mid 90s, to a blazing 97mph to go with his hard slurve. Struggled in his first shot in the majors. Must hit his spots to be successful. Despite pretty good stuff, doesn't strikeout very many (6.43 per 9 career) but also doesn't walk many. | |
28 |
10 |
JK Ryu | struggled in 2003 with maturity issues, struggled in 2004 with the injury bug and was held to just 30 innings in relief. The biggest positive of the season for Ryu was his rediscovery of his strikeout pitch. Ryu struck out 31 men in those 30 innings after barely K'ing 7 per 9 in 150+ innings in 03. Jae Kuk is still just 21 years old with an impressive array of pitches, so there's still a future here. No word on whether or not he will continue in the pen or join the AA starting rotation in 2005. |
29 |
Eric Patterson | Like his brother Corey, Eric is a fine athlete with plus speed. Although their swings are similar, Eric is more of a gap hitter and doesn't have the same power as Corey. He also doesn't have the same problems with walks as Corey does. E-Pat will be successful if he learns how to better utilize his speed and make consistant contact. In the field, he is an above-average defender with soft hands and good range. | |
30 |
29 |
Adam Greenberg | Does exactly what a 5'9", 170lb player with no power has to do....play his heart out. Goes 100% every play. He hits (.289 career BA), is extremely patient (.384 career OBP), plays great defense, and runs well (14 triples, 19 steals in 04). Longshot to play for Cubs, but will get a shot in a more results-valueing organization. |
31 |
Darin Downs | Very polished pitcher for such a young age (turned 20 late December). Best pitch is one of the best curveballs in the system. Had problems with control at times, but made enormous strides in K/9 (7.5 in 03 to 9.15 in 04) and H/9 (11.27 in 03 to 8.25 in 04). Should continue to improve in first taste of full-season ball. | |
32 |
Will Ohman | After missing 2 years with arm troubles, Ohman impressed in his return to the mound in 2004, and earned his way on the Cubs 40-man roster. Ohman regained his 93 mph fastball, along with his wicked curve to dominate AAA hitters to the tune of nearly 13 Ks per 9 innings. He followed that up with a dominant winter ball season. The success was short-lived though, as Ohman could not make the Cubs opening day roster. At 27 years old, this could be a make or break year for the southpaw. | |
33 |
6 |
Chadd Blasko | the Cubs 2003 minor league pitcher of the year was also hampered by injury in 04. Arm problems led to Blasko's numbers doing a complete 180. In just 66 2/3 innings, Blasko had a 5.67 ERA, allowed 77 hits, and an alarming 12 longballs. Chadd is still not over his arm troubles and is spending time in extended spring training for at least the first month of the season. |
34 |
Dave Crouthers | Blessed with a mid 90s fastball and a very good slider, but also known for having a weak make-up. Had problems putting bad outings out of his mind, which doesn't suit well for a guy who will be used in relief in 2005. Good strikeout rate, but problematic walk and HR rates will hold him back. | |
35 |
Buck Coats | Physically, looks like the new breed of the big ML shortstops. 6'3", great arm, solid range, and very good speed. Doesn't quite hit like the big boys, though. Increased ISOP from .094 in 03 to a solid .130 in 04, but not surprisingly his contact ability and patience took a dive. After 3 years in the OF, settled down in his 2nd year at SS, cutting his error total nearly in half. | |
36 |
11 |
David Kelton | On May 24, 2003 the course of David Kelton's career changed for good. That was the day he requested a move from 3B, despite the fact that the Cubs had an immediate need at the position. A .331 hitting 3B before the move, became an OF who couldn't .270 in the hitter friendly PCL. Kelton still has a picture perfect swing, solid power, and is a good athlete. He had a solid showing in ML camp this year, and still could have a future, with or without the Cubs. |
37 |
Robert Ransom | Ransom was a 23rd round pick in the 2003 draft, falling that far when some arm troubles hurt his junior year performance at Vanderbilt. A strong performance that summer at the Cape Cod league where he reached the mid- to upper-90's on his fastball convinced the Cubs to sign him to a contract. While Ransom doesn't have a great punch-out breaking ball, he has thrived by throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the park. In 2005, we should see if he can maintain that success in the upper minors. | |
38 |
Alan Rick | has a ton of upside with the bat. At 6'3", he has a pretty LH stroke, which will continue to generate more power as he develops. 33 of his 77 hits went for extra bases, while he met the acceptable level of taking a walk every 10 or so ABs. Because of the height, Rick is very awkward behind the plate. He's slow out of the crouch, has a slow release, and is just mediocre at blocking balls in the dirt. However, he is athletic enough to possibly move to a corner OF spot if the tools of ignorance don't work out. | |
39 |
Jermaine Van Buren | Once a top starting pitching prospect in the minors, Van Buren dominated as a closer in the Cubs system in 2004. Allowed an unthinkable 23 hits in 53 innings in AA, while striking out 64 men. Features a mid 90s fastball and a decent slider. Got a shot as a NRI in spring training, but didn't impress. Has a lot of competition to get a shot as a RH reliever. | |
40 |
25 |
Jason Wylie | a struggling starter in college, the Cubs also turned Wylie into a dominant minor league closer. Wylie struck out nearly a man for each of his near 100 minor league innings, while giving up just 1 HR as a closer in 02 and 03. However, Jason too struggled with injury in 2004, which held him to 8 innings. Once that mid 90s fastball and devastating slider take the mound again, has a chance to rise through the minors as a short reliever. |
41 |
Kevin Collins | has only 1 real tool, but Collins has possibly the best raw power in the system. Outslugged Brian Dopirak at Lansing last season, but was much, much older. Made the switch to LF last season, and will likely never be more than a below average OF. As usual with a power prospect, his ability to put the ball in play will be the key to his success. | |
42 |
Sean Gallagher | 12th round draft pick in 2004 put up strong numbers in Rookie ball last season. 44 Ks, 3.12 ERA in 34 2/3 innings. Features a low 90s fastball and one of the best curves to come out of the 04 draft. Not much projectability, but knows how to pitch. | |
43 |
Carlos Vasquez | Though added to the 40-man roster after the 03 season, Vasquez is still very raw. People are down on him, but he does have a career ERA under 4, near 2:1 K/BB, and is the toughest Cub minor leaguer to take deep. Hasn't K'd more than 6 per 9 the last 2 years, so he will need to lower BB/9 and continue to get groundballs. Very lively arm, and at only 22 in AA this year, has time. Note - another positive steroids test after the list was compiled. |
|
44 |
Russ Rohlicek | prototypical situational lefty. In 2 seasons as a reliever, Rohlicek has allowed just 6 hits per 9 IP, struck out a man per inning, and has given up just 2 HRs in over 117 innings. Did walk nearly 5.5 batters per 9, though. Wildness caused him to fail miserably in ML camp, after being placed on the 40-man roster this past offseason. Will go to AAA with a chance to earn a callup this season. | |
45 |
Bo Flowers | Flowers is a great athlete with exceptional speed who has yet to translate his tools into performance. He has power potential but hit just 5 home runs last season. He also needs to improve his stolen base percentages. The biggest problems Flowers faces is improving his BB/K ratios. He's walked just 33 times in 533 minor league at-bats while striking out 149 times. Flowers will be just 21 next season, so he still has time to improve. | |
46 |
Mitch Atkins | Nice build at 6'3" over 200 lbs. Good low 90s fastball, with a developing slider and changeup. Very early in his career with plenty of time to improve and make noise in a system loaded with RHPs. | |
47 |
Scott Moore | In the 2002 draft, the Tigers took Moore as the eighth overall pick in the draft. He has shown power hitting 14 home runs in 391 at-bats last season in the Florida State League. Moore has also shown patience at the plate drawing 49 walks last year. But his career batting average is just .240; he strikes out way too much, and his speed is below average. His defense needs more work. The Cubs hope he can turn it around in 2005. | |
48 |
Dwaine Bacon | The fastest player in the system also has the distinction of being the most patient. 147 BBs the last 2 seasons to go with 134 stolen bases. Problem is, he strikes out at an alarming rate for a guy with 0 power. Near 33% K rate has him as just a .239 career hitter. Despite speed, he's a below average defensive OF. Very remote chance for career at 26, with no signs of cutting down Ks. | |
49 |
Micah Hoffpauir | very fundamentally sound. Good hands and footwork, very good defense at 1B. Typical sweet LH stroke, Mainly a doubles hitter, who uses all fields. Needs to develop HR power as a corner IF/OF. Similar to Mark Grace without the patience. | |
50 |
JJ Johnson | JJ Johnson- Just couldn't hit in full-season baseball. Raised his average by over 40 points after 2 poor seasons in Low A. But as the batting average returned, the patience went (27 BB, 387 ABs), and the power was almost non-existant (.113 ISOP). Once a top 15 prospect after a NWL MVP season, barely cracks the top 50 now. |
Honorable Mentions:
- Luis Montanez
- Wilqin Duran
- Chris Shaver
- Jeremy Blevins
- Elvin Puello
- Nic Jackson
- Carmen Pignatiello
- Alberto Garcia
- Kyle Boyer
- Ryan O'Malley
- Dave Cash
- Chris Mowday
- Randy Wells