2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

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Derwood
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2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby Derwood » Mon Mar 23, 2009 12:32 pm

Want to let everyone know that the tiebreaker question is WHEN will be Lou's first ejection, not HOW MANY ejections he'll have. Please go back and edit your entry before the deadline.

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TruffleShuffle
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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Apr 03, 2009 11:20 am

1. Number of Cubs wins, 2009
88

3. Number of runs scored, 2009
875

4. Number of runs allowed, 2009
650


16.4 wins below their pyth... yikes

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Apr 03, 2009 12:00 pm

the average NSBB'er is picking the cubs to underperform their pythagorean winning percentage by 4.35 wins. :x

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby Southpaw19 » Fri Apr 03, 2009 12:11 pm

As long as they win the division, I could care less how many games they win April 6 - Oct 4.
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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby NCCubFan » Fri Apr 03, 2009 1:45 pm

Southpaw19 wrote:As long as they win the division, I could care less how many games they win April 6 - Oct 4.
Me too. I care about them winning 11 games after Oct. 4.
Beautiful words: Former GM Jim Hendry

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby Andy » Fri Apr 03, 2009 2:12 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:the average NSBB'er is picking the cubs to underperform their pythagorean winning percentage by 4.35 wins. :x

I think I had us overperforming our Pythagorean by like 9 games last year. I fixed that this time around.

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Apr 03, 2009 2:19 pm

Andy wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:the average NSBB'er is picking the cubs to underperform their pythagorean winning percentage by 4.35 wins. :x

I think I had us overperforming our Pythagorean by like 9 games last year. I fixed that this time around.


by having us underperforming our pythagorean by like 9 games this year?

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby soccer10k » Fri Apr 03, 2009 3:00 pm

NCCubFan wrote:
Southpaw19 wrote:As long as they win the division, I could care less how many games they win April 6 - Oct 4.
Me too. I care about them winning 11 games after Oct. 4.


Assuming there are no makeup games or one game playoffs, of course.
In Theo we trust.

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby Mike Aller » Fri Apr 03, 2009 4:29 pm

My predictions lie pretty heavily one Bradley or Harden not getting injured (for any great length). It's ballsy.

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby CubbieBum » Fri Apr 03, 2009 5:31 pm

Mike Aller wrote:My predictions lie pretty heavily one Bradley or Harden not getting injured (for any great length). It's ballsy.


Well I finished fourth last year so I will keep with my strategy which is to pick on a whim for everything.


This is off the topic but the guy in Aller's sig in the first row all the way to the left has to be the shortest guy to ever attend a NBA game.
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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby Derwood » Fri Apr 03, 2009 5:54 pm

oh crap, i didn't even figure out my pythag. I ought to look into that...

EDIT: I was only 3 games under, which is within a reasonable margin

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby Andy » Fri Apr 03, 2009 7:19 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:
Andy wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:the average NSBB'er is picking the cubs to underperform their pythagorean winning percentage by 4.35 wins. :x

I think I had us overperforming our Pythagorean by like 9 games last year. I fixed that this time around.


by having us underperforming our pythagorean by like 9 games this year?

I have us at +153 in runs and +16 in wins. Am I missing something?

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Apr 03, 2009 8:04 pm

Andy wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:
Andy wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:the average NSBB'er is picking the cubs to underperform their pythagorean winning percentage by 4.35 wins. :x

I think I had us overperforming our Pythagorean by like 9 games last year. I fixed that this time around.


by having us underperforming our pythagorean by like 9 games this year?

I have us at +153 in runs and +16 in wins. Am I missing something?


Image

plug in the numbers, multiply by 162 and see how many wins you've got.

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby TruffleShuffle » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:27 am

now that the deadline has passed, here are the predictions of RS/RA and the pythagorean # of wins, versus the # of wins that each user predicted:

Spoiler: show
Rocket - 88 wins, pyth 92.8 wins, -4.8 vs expected
Bob Sanders - 93 wins, pyth 93.5 wins, -0.5 vs expected
Big Shooter - 93 wins, pyth 95.5 wins, -2.5 vs expected
CubbieBum - 93 wins, pyth 101.6 wins, -8.6 vs expected
eb14play2 - 93 wins, pyth 98.5, -5.5 vs expected
sweetpeteman - 92 wins, pyth 97.2, -5.2 vs expected
cubbinalltheway - 94 wins, pyth 98.2, -4.2 vs expected
The Logan - 95 wins, pyth 96.0, -1.0 vs expected
Aramis Fan - 93 wins, pyth 103.3, -10.3 vs expected
Mike Aller - 91 wins, pyth 96.8, -5.8 vs expected
Enn Tea - 93 wins, pyth 96.4, -3.4 vs expected
Butters - 90 wins, pyth 89.4, +0.6 vs expected
NC Cub Fan - 95 wins, pyth 91.3, +3.7 vs expected
Andy - 89 wins, pyth 97.6, -8.6 vs expected
Mark Prior's Calves - 90 wins, pyth 95.5, -5.5 vs expected
mhuber - 92 wins, pyth 94.4, -2.4 vs expected
Shilzzz - 92 wins, pyth 94.9, -2.9 vs expected
moochpuppy - 88 wins, pyth 83.7, +4.3 vs expected
SouthSideRyan - 94 wins, pyth 94.0, same as expected
soccer10k - 92 wins, pyth 93.7, -1.7 vs expected
Vanilla Ice - 91 wins, pyth 94.5, -3.5 vs expected
manbearcub - 90 wins, pyth 89.4, +0.6 vs expected
CliftonHanger - 93 wins, pyth 108.0, -15.0 vs expected
JimSorgi - 89 wins, pyth 93.8, -4.8 vs expected
Roast - 94 wins, pyth 99.7, -5.7 vs expected
karenmac - 93 wins, pyth 94.6, -1.6 vs expected
rawaction - 92 wins, pyth 97.2, -5.2 vs expected
PingHitter - 89 wins, pyth 94.7, -5.7 vs expected
Derwood - 91 wins, pyth 96.0, -5.0 vs expected
Laurens - 90 wins, pyth 102.2, -12.2 vs expected
TruffleShuffle - 93 wins, pyth 93.8, -0.8 vs expected
Southpaw - 88 wins, pyth 104.4, -16.4 vs expected
vance - 95 wins, pyth 94.7, +0.3 vs expected
tinkertini - 90 wins, pyth 104.4, -14.4 vs expected
Mark_R - 91 wins, pyth 89.0, +2.0 vs expected


overall, the average nsbb pick has the cubs underperforming their pythagorean wins by 4.33. oops.

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby Derwood » Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:55 pm

I calculated mine at -3, not -5.

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby NCCubFan » Sat Apr 04, 2009 2:19 pm

I'm one of the optimists. I have them overperforming by 3.7 wins.
Beautiful words: Former GM Jim Hendry

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby NCCubFan » Sat Apr 04, 2009 2:20 pm

I went ahead and locked the entries thread since the deadline has passed.
Beautiful words: Former GM Jim Hendry

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby Derwood » Sat Apr 04, 2009 2:26 pm

NCCubFan wrote:I went ahead and locked the entries thread since the deadline has passed.


thanks

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby TruffleShuffle » Sat Apr 04, 2009 3:20 pm

the average NSBB picks:
wins: 91.7
wins over the cards: 9.7
runs scored: 835
runs allowed 680.7
aramis ramirez HR: 29.9
alfonso soriano SB: 20.2
ryan theriot batting average: .2935
milton bradley RBI: 87.3
ryan dempster wins: 14.9
sean marshall ERA: 4.11
carlos zambrano K: 162.1
rich harden IP: 152

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby Butterscup » Mon Apr 20, 2009 5:08 pm

wow my pythag is pretty much right on

i mean...i calculated that ahead of time.

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby UK » Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:38 pm

The bullpen will create the positive pythag. record.

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby NCCubFan » Thu Jul 02, 2009 9:02 pm

Looks like karenmac came closest on the tie-breaker (2 days off on the date of Lou's first ejection). A few others were within a week.
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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby Derwood » Thu Jul 02, 2009 9:08 pm

NCCubFan wrote:Looks like karenmac came closest on the tie-breaker (2 days off on the date of Lou's first ejection). A few others were within a week.


doesn't look like many of us are going to be close on anything.

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby karenmac » Fri Jul 03, 2009 7:09 pm

NCCubFan wrote:Looks like karenmac came closest on the tie-breaker (2 days off on the date of Lou's first ejection). A few others were within a week.


Woot! That and not totally stinking in the HR Derby almost make up for the crappy seasons my fantasy teams are having :)

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Re: 2009 NSBB Predictions Contest - Discussion

Postby Derwood » Mon Oct 05, 2009 8:54 am

I'll try to get to tallying up people's scores tomorrow (tuesday)


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