Castro

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Tim
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Castro

Postby Tim » Sun May 05, 2013 2:10 am

So...

I took a lot of heat last August for saying that I was concerned about Castro's growth as an offensive player. Sure enough, his production did increase the remaining portion of last year. We're only 130 PA into this season, but he's doing the same darned thing he did to begin last year - walk in around 2-3% of his PA.

We're certainly still early in the season. But with Castro currently sitting at an OPS under .700, I can confidently state that I'm not excited about his start to the year.

I believe I had sneaky, TT, and n&g amongst others telling me that reducing the projection for Starlin based on last year (to that point) was silly. Everyone still feel that way?
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Re: Castro

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun May 05, 2013 7:16 am

I seem to recall getting a lot of heat after 2011 for saying I didn't think he was a .340 BABIP hitter in the majors long-term.

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Re: Castro

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun May 05, 2013 7:26 am

Yes.
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Re: Castro

Postby davell » Sun May 05, 2013 8:37 am

I'm a bit disappointed in his walk rate, but its been a month. If he's at a sub .700 OPS at the ASB, talk to me. My guess is he'll be much closer to .800 than .700 though at that point.Wasn't his OPS like .715ish or so heading into yesterday? A 3-4 day with a couple of doubles and he'd have been around .750ish and this wouldn't have been brought up. The fact that sub-.700 was brought up just seems very cherry picked here.
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Re: Castro

Postby yanrslatr » Sun May 05, 2013 9:18 am

ugh

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Re: Castro

Postby Little Slide Rooter » Sun May 05, 2013 9:22 am

He was in the .800s not long ago at all. A month into the season, even a 5-7 day rough patch can really show on the slash line, as can a hot streak.

He's actually hit a ton in that the past 10 days, raising his BA from .267 to .282. but then down to .273 after yesterday's 0fer. He just hasn't been walking so much, and it's probably not abnormal for a young player on a hot streak with that bat to be more interested in hitting than the free base.

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Re: Castro

Postby Tim » Sun May 05, 2013 10:33 am

Mental note: Posting at 3am is generally a bad idea
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Re: Castro

Postby New York Cubs Fan » Sun May 05, 2013 10:33 am

Is Starlin really only 5'10"?

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Re: Castro

Postby Tim » Sun May 05, 2013 10:34 am

New York Cubs Fan wrote:Is Starlin really only 5'10"?

No
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Re: Castro

Postby Tim » Sun May 05, 2013 10:35 am

I will flip the question around, though...

Is there anyone that is happy with the progression he's making on offense from year to year?
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Re: Castro

Postby New York Cubs Fan » Sun May 05, 2013 10:37 am

Tim wrote:
New York Cubs Fan wrote:Is Starlin really only 5'10"?

No


Yeah, he looks taller than that. Idk why he's listed at that height. I was looking at his page due to this thread and was really surprised by the listing.

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Re: Castro

Postby New York Cubs Fan » Sun May 05, 2013 10:40 am

Tim wrote:I will flip the question around, though...

Is there anyone that is happy with the progression he's making on offense from year to year?


No. The only area he has improved on is his power. I am disappointed by the rate he is progressing. I haven't reached a high level of concern because he's still so damn young, but there is absolutely cause for some amount of concern when evaluating his development.

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Re: Castro

Postby Tryptamine » Sun May 05, 2013 12:35 pm

Tim wrote:I will flip the question around, though...

Is there anyone that is happy with the progression he's making on offense from year to year?


I don't know how you can be. There isn't any progress at all.

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Re: Castro

Postby Tim » Sun May 05, 2013 12:41 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
Tim wrote:I will flip the question around, though...

Is there anyone that is happy with the progression he's making on offense from year to year?


I don't know how you can be. There isn't any progress at all.

His power is unquestionably progressing. He also stole more the past couple years than his rookie year.

However, it was easy to dream really big things when he had so much success at 20 and 21. He's still a really good player to have locked up and we'll continue to see growth in his power numbers as he matures. I was really hoping to see more progress in his approach under this regime, though.
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Re: Castro

Postby CubinNY » Sun May 05, 2013 1:34 pm

Tim wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
Tim wrote:I will flip the question around, though...

Is there anyone that is happy with the progression he's making on offense from year to year?


I don't know how you can be. There isn't any progress at all.

His power is unquestionably progressing. He also stole more the past couple years than his rookie year.

However, it was easy to dream really big things when he had so much success at 20 and 21. He's still a really good player to have locked up and we'll continue to see growth in his power numbers as he matures. I was really hoping to see more progress in his approach under this regime, though.

Yea, the approach of nearly everyone is hacktastic.

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Re: Castro

Postby 17 Seconds » Sun May 05, 2013 2:08 pm

i'm disappointed that he's lost a bit of the hit tool without any improvement in his approach/discipline

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Re: Castro

Postby Banedon » Sun May 05, 2013 9:07 pm

I nearly began this thread earlier this week. Was gonna complain about his lack of walks, but it almost exactly mentions last April. Maybe hes just a slow starter? In any case, hes definitely not had a great start.

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Re: Castro

Postby Beer Kaese » Sun May 05, 2013 9:57 pm

I am concerned. He looks more and more like a guy who hits on the back half of a quality lineup. I expected an improved walk rate before improved power.
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Re: Castro

Postby SouthSideRyan » Sun May 05, 2013 10:53 pm

It's probably going to be a light switch, again you guys don't deserve him.
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Re: Castro

Postby Omar » Mon May 06, 2013 12:21 am

Banedon wrote:Maybe hes just a slow starter?


For reference, Castro's career splits by month:

Code: Select all

I         Split  G GS  PA  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
    April/March 75 75 332 317 40 101 16  5  4  38 16  4 10 41 .319 .340 .438 .779 139   9   2  0  3   0   6  .353   106
            May 80 80 342 326 35  97  9  6  6  44  7  2 13 50 .298 .322 .417 .739 136  12   0  0  3   3   6  .333    95
           June 80 79 332 303 36  82 19  5  3  26  6  7 22 50 .271 .318 .396 .714 120   8   1  2  4   5   4  .311    89
           July 75 74 316 299 37  84 17  5  6  32  5  4 14 48 .281 .314 .431 .746 129   8   1  1  1   3   6  .317    96
         August 86 85 380 357 54 109 21  4  7  35 13  6 21 66 .305 .347 .445 .793 159   6   2  0  0   0   3  .359   109
       Sept/Oct 79 77 342 309 34  91 19  2  4  23 12  8 24 33 .294 .355 .408 .763 126  11   6  1  2   3   3  .318   103


First Half vs. Second Half

Code: Select all

I      Split   G  GS   PA   AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
    1st Half 262 260 1116 1049 123 305 49 19 14 119 29 14 52 164 .291 .323 .414 .737 434  34   3  2 10  10  17  .330    95
    2nd Half 213 210  928  862 113 259 52  8 16  79 30 17 52 124 .300 .346 .435 .781 375  20   9  2  3   4  11  .335   107


Let the analysis begin...

(These stats include 2013 numbers)

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Re: Castro

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon May 06, 2013 8:03 am

I don't think it helps his development that he's the centerpiece on a crappy team coming off a 100 loss year and on pace to lose 100 more. But he doesn't seem to have taken a step back, more like hit a plateau. It happens.
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Re: Castro

Postby sneakypower » Mon May 06, 2013 8:04 am

ignoring the OP's insufferable, self-congratulatory, smug tone for a minute...

when Robin Yount was Castro's age, he had over 3500 career PAs of .270/.308/.364 hitting
(for reference, Castro's sitting at .295/.333/.423 now)

when Alan Trammell was Castro's age, he held a career .275/.347/.356 line

when Rod Carew was Castro's age, he held a career .299/.346/.408 line

when Barry Larkin was Castro's age, he held a career .254/.310/.380 line

when Roberto Alomar was Castro's age, he held a career .286/.343/.394 line

when Pete Rose was Castro's age, he held a career .271/.327/.350 line

when Miguel Tejada was Castro's age, he hadn't had a single MLB AB yet and was still working on his .271/.346/.442 career MiLB line


i know a whole month seems like a real long time but i'm going to go with "it's still too early"
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Re: Castro

Postby Tim » Mon May 06, 2013 10:22 am

sneakypower wrote:ignoring the OP's insufferable, self-congratulatory, smug tone for a minute...

when Robin Yount was Castro's age, he had over 3500 career PAs of .270/.308/.364 hitting
(for reference, Castro's sitting at .295/.333/.423 now)

when Alan Trammell was Castro's age, he held a career .275/.347/.356 line

when Rod Carew was Castro's age, he held a career .299/.346/.408 line

when Barry Larkin was Castro's age, he held a career .254/.310/.380 line

when Roberto Alomar was Castro's age, he held a career .286/.343/.394 line

when Pete Rose was Castro's age, he held a career .271/.327/.350 line

when Miguel Tejada was Castro's age, he hadn't had a single MLB AB yet and was still working on his .271/.346/.442 career MiLB line


i know a whole month seems like a real long time but i'm going to go with "it's still too early"

It's actually his fourth season - I'm not judging this on one month.

Also, you ignored the question of whether you're happy with his development at this point. Starlin has 2000+ PA's in his career. He's definitely young and there's definitely time to mature as a hitter. But the simple question is: are you happy with the progress he's making at this point?
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Re: Castro

Postby Hawk4Hall » Mon May 06, 2013 10:38 am

Thread title needs to be changed to Cassie.

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Re: Castro

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon May 06, 2013 10:42 am

When a whole bunch of not HOF hitters were Castro's age, they hit some stuff too


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