Arrieta: Consider yourself lucky he lets you cheer for him

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Big all-caps bold faced caveat: Arrieta has 5 starts and 25 IP this year, all conclusions are of a "let's see if this continues and actually becomes something real" sort.

Brett had a bit this morning about Arrieta's spike in ground balls: http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/05/3 ... ball-stud/

That made me curious if his pitch mix had changed at all this year, and sure enough it has. After not throwing a cutter at all prior to arriving in Chicago, it's up to 10% of his pitches this year, replacing his slider. What effect is that having? Well the aforementioned increase in ground balls is a big one, if he qualified he'd be 22nd of 101 qualifiers in GB% after being well in the lower half in years prior. Maybe just as important as the ground balls is what the cutter is doing to LH hitters. Arrieta's career line against RH and LH:

RH: 875 PA, .245/.319/.365/.684, 20 HR
LH: 1028 PA, .270/.356/.468/.823, 36 HR

And now this year with heavy cutter usage:

RH: 59 PA, .294/.356/.333/.689, 0 HR
LH: 52 PA, .271/.327/.333.660, 1 HR

Like mentioned above, we're talking about 100 PA so there's a ton of other reasons for that to have happened, but the combination of cutter usage, ground balls, and LH effectiveness is difficult to ignore. Arrieta's start so far has him on a pace for nearly a 4 fWAR season, so he could even regress a bit from this pace and still be a nice success story, especially since he's under team control for 3 more years.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's going to take one bad inning to blow these stats up.

[Sammy Sofa]

[Banedon]

[Soul]

It's going to take one bad inning to blow these stats up.

Gotta have faith, a'faith, a'faith.

[neely crenshaw]

I thought the same with Wood last year. Kept waiting for the other shoe to drop but it didn't.
Arrieta certainly has the stuff to be a very solid starter.

[David]

I thought the same with Wood last year. Kept waiting for the other shoe to drop but it didn't.
Arrieta certainly has the stuff to be a very solid starter.

Wood this year would be more of an example than last year. Last year was more flukish.

[David]

Seems like more cutters has been a common theme.

[Gilby]

Seems like more cutters has been a common theme.

Take that, Orioles.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Seems like more cutters has been a common theme.

Take that, Orioles.

Imagine Bundy and Bosio...

[CubinNY]

Seems like more cutters has been a common theme.

Take that, Orioles.

Imagine Bundy and Bosio...

Hopefully come August 1st it won't be such a dream.

[Ryno12]

Seems like more cutters has been a common theme.

Take that, Orioles.

Imagine Bundy and Bosio...

I was just going to post that this is why I want Bundy in a Shark deal really bad. No surprise that Raisin beat me to the punch.

[North]

Arrieta has been good up until this point because of unsustainable strikeout numbers and a rapid grounder spike despite his pitches not moving differently. His strikeout numbers, according to looking strike %, swinging strike %, and first pitch strike %, correlate to about a 7.7 K/9. And after factoring in zone %, his BB/9 correlates to about a 3.7 BB/9. His 53% grounder number is high because he is getting more grounders on his fastball and on his curveball. Remember, though, those pitches aren't moving differently and the velocity is basically the same. So the grounders aren't a result of his "stuff" changing. Even though he isn't throwing the fastball in a specific location that is different from previous years, he is throwing the curve at a higher rate down in the zone now. That's probably why he is getting more grounders on the pitch. However, the sample is small and after one or two starts, those numbers potentially normalize.

Arrieta's current peripherals suggest that 7.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and throw in a HR/9 of 0.8 by years end. Those numbers equal about a 3.9 FIP, which is on the cusp of league average.

Bosio hasn't really done much to Arrieta because his pitches aren't much different. I don't know where Brett is getting his sinker usage, but Pitch f/x showed that Arrieta's spike in sinkers isn't a result of Bosio. He was throwing more sinkers in 2012 than he is now by about 5%. He's only thrown the cutter 21 times this season, and his grounder increase aren't a result because of that.

There is nothing bad about a 3.9 FIP pitcher in the back end of a rotation, but that's not the type of pitcher we want starting in a playoff series.

[sneakypower]

lol top-10 in starter FIP right now (min. 30 IP)

[UK]

lol top-10 in starter FIP right now (min. 30 IP)

Before the season, I would've never believed that in mid-June their worst starter would basically have the same FIP as James Shields and Liriano.

[CubinNY]

I'd take Arrieta in a playoff start.

[flyseye]

lol top-10 in starter FIP right now (min. 30 IP)

Top 5 now.

[wekse]

this [expletive]' guy is good...that cutter is nasty.

[KingCubsFan]

Big all-caps bold faced caveat: Arrieta has 5 starts and 25 IP this year, all conclusions are of a "let's see if this continues and actually becomes something real" sort.

Brett had a bit this morning about Arrieta's spike in ground balls: http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/05/3 ... ball-stud/

That made me curious if his pitch mix had changed at all this year, and sure enough it has. After not throwing a cutter at all prior to arriving in Chicago, it's up to 10% of his pitches this year, replacing his slider. What effect is that having? Well the aforementioned increase in ground balls is a big one, if he qualified he'd be 22nd of 101 qualifiers in GB% after being well in the lower half in years prior. Maybe just as important as the ground balls is what the cutter is doing to LH hitters. Arrieta's career line against RH and LH:

RH: 875 PA, .245/.319/.365/.684, 20 HR
LH: 1028 PA, .270/.356/.468/.823, 36 HR

And now this year with heavy cutter usage:

RH: 59 PA, .294/.356/.333/.689, 0 HR
LH: 52 PA, .271/.327/.333.660, 1 HR

Like mentioned above, we're talking about 100 PA so there's a ton of other reasons for that to have happened, but the combination of cutter usage, ground balls, and LH effectiveness is difficult to ignore. Arrieta's start so far has him on a pace for nearly a 4 fWAR season, so he could even regress a bit from this pace and still be a nice success story, especially since he's under team control for 3 more years.

Cutter usage now up to 19.7% (and slider down to 2.2%).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-jake- ... se-chavez/

[davell]

So which is it? Has he thrown the cutter 21 times all year, 19.7% of the time, or 40% of the time? These numbers are so far off I question if any of them are correct.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So which is it? Has he thrown the cutter 21 times all year, 19.7% of the time, or 40% of the time? These numbers are so far off I question if any of them are correct.

Not sure where the 21 is coming from, but the 19.7% is the year total, and the 40% is in recent starts, and the author was combining the slider and cutter(for reasons I get but I'm not sure I would do).

[David]

So which is it? Has he thrown the cutter 21 times all year, 19.7% of the time, or 40% of the time? These numbers are so far off I question if any of them are correct.

The 21 times post by North is from like 2-3 weeks ago.

I guess if he's thrown it as high as 40% of the time in recent starts and 20%ish on the year, it could make sense (or at least make more sense)

[sneakypower]

So which is it? Has he thrown the cutter 21 times all year, 19.7% of the time, or 40% of the time? These numbers are so far off I question if any of them are correct.

i was confused about that too, then i realized he was still talking about Jesse Sanchez

[davell]

Ah, both those things make sense then.