Arrieta: Consider yourself lucky he lets you cheer for him

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Transmogrified Tiger
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Arrieta: Consider yourself lucky he lets you cheer for him

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri May 30, 2014 9:23 am

Big all-caps bold faced caveat: Arrieta has 5 starts and 25 IP this year, all conclusions are of a "let's see if this continues and actually becomes something real" sort.

Brett had a bit this morning about Arrieta's spike in ground balls: http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/05/3 ... ball-stud/

That made me curious if his pitch mix had changed at all this year, and sure enough it has. After not throwing a cutter at all prior to arriving in Chicago, it's up to 10% of his pitches this year, replacing his slider. What effect is that having? Well the aforementioned increase in ground balls is a big one, if he qualified he'd be 22nd of 101 qualifiers in GB% after being well in the lower half in years prior. Maybe just as important as the ground balls is what the cutter is doing to LH hitters. Arrieta's career line against RH and LH:

RH: 875 PA, .245/.319/.365/.684, 20 HR
LH: 1028 PA, .270/.356/.468/.823, 36 HR

And now this year with heavy cutter usage:

RH: 59 PA, .294/.356/.333/.689, 0 HR
LH: 52 PA, .271/.327/.333.660, 1 HR

Like mentioned above, we're talking about 100 PA so there's a ton of other reasons for that to have happened, but the combination of cutter usage, ground balls, and LH effectiveness is difficult to ignore. Arrieta's start so far has him on a pace for nearly a 4 fWAR season, so he could even regress a bit from this pace and still be a nice success story, especially since he's under team control for 3 more years.

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri May 30, 2014 9:26 am

It's going to take one bad inning to blow these stats up.

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri May 30, 2014 9:33 am

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby Banedon » Fri May 30, 2014 9:40 am

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby Soul » Fri May 30, 2014 10:56 am

KyleJRM wrote:It's going to take one bad inning to blow these stats up.


Gotta have faith, a'faith, a'faith.
What doesn't kill you makes you stronger usually leaves a scar.

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby neely crenshaw » Fri May 30, 2014 11:39 am

I thought the same with Wood last year. Kept waiting for the other shoe to drop but it didn't.
Arrieta certainly has the stuff to be a very solid starter.

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby David » Fri May 30, 2014 11:43 am

neely crenshaw wrote:I thought the same with Wood last year. Kept waiting for the other shoe to drop but it didn't.
Arrieta certainly has the stuff to be a very solid starter.


Wood this year would be more of an example than last year. Last year was more flukish.
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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby David » Fri May 30, 2014 11:43 am

Seems like more cutters has been a common theme.
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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby Gilby » Fri May 30, 2014 11:49 am

David wrote:Seems like more cutters has been a common theme.


Take that, Orioles.

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri May 30, 2014 11:52 am

Gilby wrote:
David wrote:Seems like more cutters has been a common theme.


Take that, Orioles.


Imagine Bundy and Bosio...

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby CubinNY » Fri May 30, 2014 4:26 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Gilby wrote:
David wrote:Seems like more cutters has been a common theme.


Take that, Orioles.


Imagine Bundy and Bosio...

Hopefully come August 1st it won't be such a dream.

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby Ryno12 » Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:43 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Gilby wrote:
David wrote:Seems like more cutters has been a common theme.


Take that, Orioles.


Imagine Bundy and Bosio...


I was just going to post that this is why I want Bundy in a Shark deal really bad. No surprise that Raisin beat me to the punch.

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby North » Tue Jun 03, 2014 12:08 am

Arrieta has been good up until this point because of unsustainable strikeout numbers and a rapid grounder spike despite his pitches not moving differently. His strikeout numbers, according to looking strike %, swinging strike %, and first pitch strike %, correlate to about a 7.7 K/9. And after factoring in zone %, his BB/9 correlates to about a 3.7 BB/9. His 53% grounder number is high because he is getting more grounders on his fastball and on his curveball. Remember, though, those pitches aren't moving differently and the velocity is basically the same. So the grounders aren't a result of his "stuff" changing. Even though he isn't throwing the fastball in a specific location that is different from previous years, he is throwing the curve at a higher rate down in the zone now. That's probably why he is getting more grounders on the pitch. However, the sample is small and after one or two starts, those numbers potentially normalize.

Arrieta's current peripherals suggest that 7.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and throw in a HR/9 of 0.8 by years end. Those numbers equal about a 3.9 FIP, which is on the cusp of league average.

Bosio hasn't really done much to Arrieta because his pitches aren't much different. I don't know where Brett is getting his sinker usage, but Pitch f/x showed that Arrieta's spike in sinkers isn't a result of Bosio. He was throwing more sinkers in 2012 than he is now by about 5%. He's only thrown the cutter 21 times this season, and his grounder increase aren't a result because of that.

There is nothing bad about a 3.9 FIP pitcher in the back end of a rotation, but that's not the type of pitcher we want starting in a playoff series.

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby sneakypower » Mon Jun 09, 2014 1:36 pm

lol top-10 in starter FIP right now (min. 30 IP)
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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby UK » Tue Jun 10, 2014 9:48 am

sneakypower wrote:lol top-10 in starter FIP right now (min. 30 IP)


Before the season, I would've never believed that in mid-June their worst starter would basically have the same FIP as James Shields and Liriano.

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby CubinNY » Wed Jun 18, 2014 3:56 pm

I'd take Arrieta in a playoff start.

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby flyseye » Wed Jun 18, 2014 7:12 pm

sneakypower wrote:lol top-10 in starter FIP right now (min. 30 IP)


Top 5 now.

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby wekse » Thu Jun 19, 2014 6:31 am

this [expletive]' guy is good...that cutter is nasty.

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby KingCubsFan » Thu Jun 19, 2014 9:04 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Big all-caps bold faced caveat: Arrieta has 5 starts and 25 IP this year, all conclusions are of a "let's see if this continues and actually becomes something real" sort.

Brett had a bit this morning about Arrieta's spike in ground balls: http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/05/3 ... ball-stud/

That made me curious if his pitch mix had changed at all this year, and sure enough it has. After not throwing a cutter at all prior to arriving in Chicago, it's up to 10% of his pitches this year, replacing his slider. What effect is that having? Well the aforementioned increase in ground balls is a big one, if he qualified he'd be 22nd of 101 qualifiers in GB% after being well in the lower half in years prior. Maybe just as important as the ground balls is what the cutter is doing to LH hitters. Arrieta's career line against RH and LH:

RH: 875 PA, .245/.319/.365/.684, 20 HR
LH: 1028 PA, .270/.356/.468/.823, 36 HR

And now this year with heavy cutter usage:

RH: 59 PA, .294/.356/.333/.689, 0 HR
LH: 52 PA, .271/.327/.333.660, 1 HR

Like mentioned above, we're talking about 100 PA so there's a ton of other reasons for that to have happened, but the combination of cutter usage, ground balls, and LH effectiveness is difficult to ignore. Arrieta's start so far has him on a pace for nearly a 4 fWAR season, so he could even regress a bit from this pace and still be a nice success story, especially since he's under team control for 3 more years.

Cutter usage now up to 19.7% (and slider down to 2.2%).

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Jun 19, 2014 9:21 am


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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby davell » Thu Jun 19, 2014 10:05 am

So which is it? Has he thrown the cutter 21 times all year, 19.7% of the time, or 40% of the time? These numbers are so far off I question if any of them are correct.
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Jun 19, 2014 10:08 am

davell wrote:So which is it? Has he thrown the cutter 21 times all year, 19.7% of the time, or 40% of the time? These numbers are so far off I question if any of them are correct.


Not sure where the 21 is coming from, but the 19.7% is the year total, and the 40% is in recent starts, and the author was combining the slider and cutter(for reasons I get but I'm not sure I would do).

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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby David » Thu Jun 19, 2014 10:13 am

davell wrote:So which is it? Has he thrown the cutter 21 times all year, 19.7% of the time, or 40% of the time? These numbers are so far off I question if any of them are correct.


The 21 times post by North is from like 2-3 weeks ago.

I guess if he's thrown it as high as 40% of the time in recent starts and 20%ish on the year, it could make sense (or at least make more sense)
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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby sneakypower » Thu Jun 19, 2014 10:16 am

davell wrote:So which is it? Has he thrown the cutter 21 times all year, 19.7% of the time, or 40% of the time? These numbers are so far off I question if any of them are correct.

i was confused about that too, then i realized he was still talking about Jesse Sanchez
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Re: Arrieta: Another Bosio success story?

Postby davell » Thu Jun 19, 2014 10:20 am

Ah, both those things make sense then.
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.


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