Projecting the 2016 Cubs

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David
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Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Sun Nov 15, 2015 12:04 pm

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.as ... &sort=26,d

someone with less laziness/more time (looking at you kyle) than me, figure out how this translates to projected wins for next year's team
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Nov 15, 2015 2:39 pm

David wrote:http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=17&lg=all&players=0&sort=26,d

someone with less laziness/more time (looking at you kyle) than me, figure out how this translates to projected wins for next year's team


I dunno, but some highlights for me include Barret Loux being our fifth-best pitcher and Dan Vogelbach projecting to be a positive baserunner.

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Sun Nov 15, 2015 2:53 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
David wrote:http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=17&lg=all&players=0&sort=26,d

someone with less laziness/more time (looking at you kyle) than me, figure out how this translates to projected wins for next year's team


I dunno, but some highlights for me include Barret Loux being our fifth-best pitcher and Dan Vogelbach projecting to be a positive baserunner.


and dan haren being on our team

you lazy bastard

just take the WAR of guys who would play for us and give me a win total
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby davell » Sun Nov 15, 2015 3:15 pm

How many wins is replacement level at this point?
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Nov 15, 2015 5:01 pm

David wrote:you lazy bastard

just take the WAR of guys who would play for us and give me a win total


Ugh, fine.

I guess put Almora in CF, I can't figure out who else from the list to put in there.

Schwarber (3.2)/Almora (0.6)/Soler(1.4)
Bryant (5.2)/Russell (2.5)/Castro (1.6)/Rizzo (4.6)
Montero (2.0)

Arrieta (5.0)/Lester (4.4)/Hendricks (3.5)/Hammel (2.5)/Johnson (0.9)

Now the tricky part is how to address the bench and pen, considering these projections are based on the assumption that the starters except for catcher all get 600 PA and the rotation guys all throw 200 innings. I'm going to be super lazy and just use the 2014 totals for fWAR from players outside our top 8 position players (-0.2) and bullpen (5.0).

So add it all up, and you get 42.2. Replacement-level is 47.5, so that projects these Cubs to 89.7 wins. That goes up when you add offseason acquisitions, then down when you come out of the fantasy world where everyone is healthy.

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Sun Nov 15, 2015 7:12 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
David wrote:you lazy bastard

just take the WAR of guys who would play for us and give me a win total


Ugh, fine.

I guess put Almora in CF, I can't figure out who else from the list to put in there.

Schwarber (3.2)/Almora (0.6)/Soler(1.4)
Bryant (5.2)/Russell (2.5)/Castro (1.6)/Rizzo (4.6)
Montero (2.0)

Arrieta (5.0)/Lester (4.4)/Hendricks (3.5)/Hammel (2.5)/Johnson (0.9)

Now the tricky part is how to address the bench and pen, considering these projections are based on the assumption that the starters except for catcher all get 600 PA and the rotation guys all throw 200 innings. I'm going to be super lazy and just use the 2014 totals for fWAR from players outside our top 8 position players (-0.2) and bullpen (5.0).

So add it all up, and you get 42.2. Replacement-level is 47.5, so that projects these Cubs to 89.7 wins. That goes up when you add offseason acquisitions, then down when you come out of the fantasy world where everyone is healthy.


and then up when the Soler hits 42 hr's
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Sun Nov 15, 2015 7:12 pm

90 win projection is pretty high for a projection

90 win projection before actually addressing 1-2 rotation spots (one of them possibly, if not likely, at an elite level) and centerfield is awesome.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Nov 15, 2015 7:41 pm

David wrote:90 win projection is pretty high for a projection

90 win projection before actually addressing 1-2 rotation spots (one of them possibly, if not likely, at an elite level) and centerfield is awesome.


Part of that is the "everyone stays perfectly healthy and productive" fantasyland of using the Steamer600 projections, but yes, this team is really really good on paper. At a glance, easily the best in the division and right with the Dodgers.

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Nov 15, 2015 8:25 pm

You can technically add a win to that projection by putting Baez's 2.5 projected fWAR in front of Castro too.

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby davell » Sun Nov 15, 2015 8:29 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:You can technically add a win to that projection by putting Baez's 2.5 projected fWAR in front of Castro too.


I'd just put him in CF, since he's supposedly going to get some time there next year.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Fri Dec 11, 2015 4:53 pm

lol no need
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 6:46 pm

MLBN has a 2016 season preview/offseason overview thing for the NL Central on at 7 CT tonight, FWIW. Figured this is the best thread to post this.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Sun Dec 13, 2015 6:57 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:MLBN has a 2016 season preview/offseason overview thing for the NL Central on at 7 CT tonight, FWIW. Figured this is the best thread to post this.


this better be good. i'm sitting through 5 minutes of for love of the game for it.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:07 pm

i feared this was going to be verducci saying a bunch of stupid crap about heyward

this is the same stuff they aired last week after the signing. just piecing together a bunch of clips.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:09 pm

David wrote:i feared this was going to be verducci saying a bunch of stupid crap about heyward

this is the same stuff they aired last week after the signing. just piecing together a bunch of clips.

Yeah, doesn't appear to be any new content. Just all the clips they've already done on every team edited into 1 "segment" on each team.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:53 pm

FG has the Cubs at 51.6 WAR for next year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.as ... &teamid=17

According to this link below, a replacement level team would win 47.7 games, which means the Cubs would project to 99.3 wins.

That's if Soler is a steaming pile of crap again (just less so) while still getting 500+ PA.

EDIT - I forgot to include the link below:

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/di ... fwar-rwar/
Last edited by David on Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:55 pm

That is Steamer, not ZiPS. ZiPS hasn't been released for all teams yet, and when it does I believe Fangraphs' depth charts use a Steamer/ZiPS mix (approx. 50/50).

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:57 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:That is Steamer, not ZiPS. ZiPS hasn't been released for all teams yet, and when it does I believe Fangraphs' depth charts use a Steamer/ZiPS mix (approx. 50/50).


yeah i caught myself on that (wasn't sure if it was steamer or zips so i went generic with FG) and ninja-edited so now you look like a crazy.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Brian » Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:49 pm

my projection - we all should purchase some looser fitting pants

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby SouthSideRyan » Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:58 pm

Brian wrote:my projection - we all should purchase some looser fitting pants


Well, everyone but the bum.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:12 pm

I don't even know how to wrap my head around a 90-win projection. Like you can come in -10 against your projection like last year's Nats and still probably be in the Wild Card game.

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:00 pm

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the ... ar-either/

It’s been a good week for the Chicago Cubs. On Tuesday, they swooped into the bidding on coveted second baseman Ben Zobrist and inked him to a four-year, $56 million deal. Then on Friday, news came that the Cubs had also agreed to an eight-year, $184 million contract with outfielder Jason Heyward, likely the best player on the free-agent market this winter. In conjunction with Chicago’s existing stable of young talent, the additions of Heyward and Zobrist have at least one well-known algorithm projecting them to be the best team in baseball next season.

It wasn’t long ago that we wrote enthusiastically about the Cubs’ chances to snap their 108-year championship drought, only to see them swept in the NLCS. We don’t (completely) want to put the stink on them again, so we’ll be brief. FanGraphs’ depth charts call for Chicago’s roster to produce a collective 52.6 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2016. After adjusting things so that all of MLB has 2,430 total wins,1 that roughly works out to a true-talent projection of 99 wins for the Cubs — a ridiculously high number.

What does it mean for Chicago’s chances of breaking The Curse? According to the relationship between talent forecasts and World Series odds, which FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver and I researched for a trade-deadline article earlier this year, a team with 99-win talent will win a championship about 15 percent of the time:


For reference, a team that is already in the playoffs (beyond the wild card round) has around a 1/8 chance (or 12.5%).

I read that as being a virtual lock to make the playoffs (and then do a little better than the standard crapshoot 1/8 chance).
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:01 pm

A 15% chance before the season starts is a [expletive] huge percentage.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:02 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:A 15% chance before the season starts is a [expletive] huge percentage.


Yup.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:07 pm

this would also mean our current +650 odds are pretty much spot on.
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