Projecting the 2016 Cubs

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:31 pm

David wrote:when the [expletive] is our zips coming out?


this week, per Szymborski

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Mon Dec 28, 2015 1:18 pm

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Mon Dec 28, 2015 1:46 pm

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby DiceMan4221 » Mon Dec 28, 2015 2:38 pm

Sooooo glad to see the above gif after reading that tweet. I THINK I might have half a clue what the tweeter was attempting to do, but I have 0% of a clue what insight the actual stats and comps in the tweet should provide.
And who, according to Showalter, best exemplifies high-buttedness? Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee. "I don’t want to say he’s got a perfect butt, but when I look at it I say, Wow."

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Tim » Mon Dec 28, 2015 2:39 pm

DiceMan4221 wrote:Sooooo glad to see the above gif after reading that tweet. I THINK I might have half a clue what the tweeter was attempting to do, but I have 0% of a clue what insight the actual stats and comps in the tweet should provide.

The hidden columns show what Cubs pitchers go with that forecast and comp. The top ones are pretty easy.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby DiceMan4221 » Mon Dec 28, 2015 2:48 pm

Tim wrote:
DiceMan4221 wrote:Sooooo glad to see the above gif after reading that tweet. I THINK I might have half a clue what the tweeter was attempting to do, but I have 0% of a clue what insight the actual stats and comps in the tweet should provide.

The hidden columns show what Cubs pitchers go with that forecast and comp. The top ones are pretty easy.

...but why should I care that Arrieta is as good as some random year of Oral? Or that (maybe) Hendricks is as good as a feisty pock-marked turncoat? I can't see the mystery column so why should I give a flying poo? Most of those names mean absolutely nothing to me.
And who, according to Showalter, best exemplifies high-buttedness? Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee. "I don’t want to say he’s got a perfect butt, but when I look at it I say, Wow."

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby The Logan » Mon Dec 28, 2015 4:06 pm

I'm more perplexed by the use of "offensive comp" when talking about pitchers.
"I don't think this team improves by trading Scott Feldman," Samardzija said.

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Dec 28, 2015 4:08 pm

The Logan wrote:I'm more perplexed by the use of "offensive comp" when talking about pitchers.

It's quite possible after seeing the projected awesomeness Symborski's brain was melted a little bit.
Screw Pitchers

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Tue Dec 29, 2015 10:52 am

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Carson Cistulli ‏@cistulli 5m5 minutes ago
Rough depth chart for Cubs with projected WAR c/o @DSzymborski. Full post tomorrow at FanGraphs dot internet.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Dec 29, 2015 10:53 am

Holy smokes, 50 fWAR. I don't think I've ever seen that.

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Tue Dec 29, 2015 10:54 am

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Tue Dec 29, 2015 1:17 pm

The Logan wrote:I'm more perplexed by the use of "offensive comp" when talking about pitchers.


I thought that kind of confusing, too. And I had no idea there was a hidden column.

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Dec 29, 2015 2:05 pm

David wrote:Image

Carson Cistulli ‏@cistulli 5m5 minutes ago
Rough depth chart for Cubs with projected WAR c/o @DSzymborski. Full post tomorrow at FanGraphs dot internet.



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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby CubinNY » Tue Dec 29, 2015 7:43 pm

How accurate is this stuff?

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Tue Dec 29, 2015 8:45 pm

CubinNY wrote:How accurate is this stuff?


Usually 1000%

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby jersey cubs fan » Tue Dec 29, 2015 10:10 pm

JennieGarthAlgar wrote:
CubinNY wrote:How accurate is this stuff?


Usually 1000%

http://youtu.be/pjvQFtlNQ-M
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Tue Dec 29, 2015 10:25 pm

last year's projections had us around 85-86 wins IIRC, which is pretty good considering we had so many things go right and had a 90 win pythag. they were definitely much closer than any of the "expert" prognosticators.

oh and none of the systems liked arrieta all that much.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Dec 30, 2015 10:39 am

Screw Pitchers

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Dec 30, 2015 11:15 am

Among position players, the strengths are unsurprising. Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward, and Anthony Rizzo amassed a total of 18 wins between them in 2015. Because negative regression is the rule, and not the exception, with regard to these sorts of star-level performances, ZiPS doesn’t call for an exact repeat of last year’s production. As a trio, however, that group is expected to log around 15 wins. That figure alone would represent a better mark than the overall totals posted by the position players of eight clubs in 2015.


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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby CubInOK » Wed Dec 30, 2015 12:34 pm

All that, and they only project Soler for 1 WAR...

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby The Logan » Wed Dec 30, 2015 3:57 pm

CubInOK wrote:All that, and they only project Soler for 1 WAR...


I was gonna say they're not too fond of Jorge. If he breaks out and starts fulfilling some of that potential then this team is gonna be other worldy, which they're already pretty close to.
"I don't think this team improves by trading Scott Feldman," Samardzija said.

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby davell » Wed Dec 30, 2015 4:02 pm

I think Russell IS a 4 WAR guy in 2016. Granted, it's only 1 from where he's projected at, but that's something anyway.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed Dec 30, 2015 6:40 pm

CubInOK wrote:All that, and they only project Soler for 1 WAR...


Probably a little high, but I guess I can see it.

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby bukie » Wed Dec 30, 2015 6:44 pm

Cubs have 5 players projected to 5 WAR or higher. The other 11 projections combined have 7 players projected to 5 WAR or higher (Donaldson, Price, Betts, Machado, McCutchen, Felix Hernandez, Votto).
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Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Wed Dec 30, 2015 10:00 pm

bukie wrote:Cubs have 5 players projected to 5 WAR or higher. The other 11 projections combined have 7 players projected to 5 WAR or higher (Donaldson, Price, Betts, Machado, McCutchen, Felix Hernandez, Votto).



I mean HOLY [expletive]
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