Northsider wrote: Tim wrote:
Northsider wrote:This whole TOR thing seems to illuminate a certain tension between upside and risk; Fangraphs noted the potential risk of losing Arrieta or Lester to injury, and the trade rumors we hear seem to involve trading upside to reduce overall risk. In this frame of reference, Spain's idea amounts to trading upside and time against risk; we hope that an injury doesn't force our hand (and lead to a greater overpay), while watching the value of TOR starters drop as contracts shorten, and prospects develop.
I think it may be possible to make a deal now, though, that provides TOR upside without drastically increasing risk across the team: Trevor Bauer and Dominic Brown.
As we know, the Indians are looking to convert pitching into outfield help. Since Carrasco or Salazar require a Soler centerpiece, Bauer's lack of similar success should reduce the requested OF value - we may be able to make a Coghlan/Candelario/Vogelbach for Bauer/(Mike Clevenger +? Josh Martin or Giovanni Soto?) deal.
This gives the Indians (who actually have OF depth about a year away) a chance to improve their outfield/wait for their prospects without breaking up their rotation, and near-term prospects for 3b and DH which are organizational weaknesses, while giving the Cubs a big-time Bosio project with 3-WAR potential and some pitching or bullpen depth in the suggested names above.
To replace Coghlan, Cubs sign Dominic Brown, who profiles a lot like Coghlan when we signed him (demonstrated offensive upside, hasn't quite been able to put it together in a bad organization, 15-20 K% and decent power/BB%). Risk goes up slightly, but since Coghlan was not expected to be an every day player, Brown should be able to provide an acceptable replacement with some upside of his own, protected against his injury history by playing off the bench.
If we could get Bauer for that package, I suspect the trade would have been made already.
Maybe not that particular package, no, especially with the rest of the suggested return. However, Bauer hasn't managed to break a 4.00 FIP yet, in about two seasons of work, so it's not like he's still the uber-prospect everyone pegged him as. The Indians have had a lot of success, with Salazar and Carrasco and Kluber, and all three of those have developed quicker than Bauer.
I did find an mlbtr article stating they wanted impact talent; maybe Torres/Candelario/Vogey for the change of scenery? Where do you think the pain points are for the Cubs and Indians if the Cubs want Bauer?
Well, I think we match up reasonably well on a Salazar trade. They have needs at 3B, RF, CF & DH. They're looking for major league assets. They know they have the pitching to compete right now, but lack the hitting. Instead of a prospect package, I believe they're looking for someone to plug into the order while they have Kluber, et al in the rotation. I don't think we'd give up Soler for Bauer and I don't think Javy provides enough certainty of production for them to make the trade. The other problem for the Cubs with Bauer is that you're likely downgrading the rotation by going away from Hammel.
To trade Carrasco to us, they'd likely need more of a certain difference maker on offense.
I think Salazar provides a middle ground where both teams could work something out. I also think we could simply propose a trade around some of our higher level hitting prospects for some of their pitching prospects. Almora, McKinney, Candelario, Vogelbach and Villanueva could all potentially provide value for them considering who else they have at those positions. They certainly have depth on the pitching prospect side that we could request in return.