Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Do you expect Javier Baez to be traded?

Yes (Before Opening Day)
4
11%
Yes (After Opening Day)
4
11%
No
30
79%
 
Total votes: 38

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Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby StylesClash » Thu Dec 24, 2015 9:03 am

Pretty simple question here. Do you believe Javy Baez will be dealt before the start of the regular season, during the season itself, or stay on Chicago's 25 man roster the entire year.

Also how many at bats do you project Baez to receive, as well as his slash line. I'm predicting either inconsistency from Hendricks or Hammel struggling will lead to Baez being packaged along with McKinney or Almora, during the regular season, for a Starting Pitcher. And unless someone in the starting lineup gets hurt or underachieves I don't see Baez getting that many at bats, which will lead to a tolerable, but not ideal, slash line of 260/290/410.

After being dealt mid season to a team in clear cut rebuild mode, I think being given consistent playing time will lead to a better slash line of 270/300/430.

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby Tedward » Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:04 am

With Castro being dealt to NYY, I think it's a safe bet that Javy is a Cub for all of 2016. What other options do we have at SS if Russell tweaks his hammy?

With the Cubs loading up on relievers, I think it's possible we see an 8 man pen, and only 12 position players. We know Ross takes one of the bench spots, and it may only allow for two additional bench players. Javy can play SS, 2B, and 3B, any maybe the OF. His versatility & ability to play several positions keeps him a Cub for 2016, IMO

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby StylesClash » Thu Dec 24, 2015 3:01 pm

Tedward wrote:With Castro being dealt to NYY, I think it's a safe bet that Javy is a Cub for all of 2016. What other options do we have at SS if Russell tweaks his hammy?

With the Cubs loading up on relievers, I think it's possible we see an 8 man pen, and only 12 position players. We know Ross takes one of the bench spots, and it may only allow for two additional bench players. Javy can play SS, 2B, and 3B, any maybe the OF. His versatility & ability to play several positions keeps him a Cub for 2016, IMO


The offensive expectations for Russell for 2016 really aren't that high. If worse came to worse and Russell suffered a nagging injury a defensive minded shortstop could always be acquired, slotted into the nine hole, and the offensive downgrade likely wouldn't be enough to take down the potency of the lineup.

But when you look at the rotation two pitchers are on the wrong side of 30, one blew by his single season innings total in 2015, and another two years in a row has fallen apart in the second half, I see the likelihood for the need to acquire another starting pitcher near the deadline to be rather high.

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Dec 24, 2015 7:25 pm

Not traded at all. Plays himself back to Iowa by June, dealt for minimal return in the offseason.

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby muntjack » Thu Dec 24, 2015 9:36 pm

.290/.325/.485, in the lineup everyday by May, either as the full time 2B or moving around.

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby sneakypower » Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:52 pm

fwiw nobody with a strikeout rate above 25% hit .290 last year
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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby Cubs Fan Dan » Fri Dec 25, 2015 3:40 am

Plays a surprisingly decent CF once per week. Gets 430 ABs hits .263/.307/.464 w/17 HR's and 17 SB's.

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby Stu » Fri Dec 25, 2015 4:39 am

What if Tampa offered Jake O and Kiermaier for Javy and Soler? Do you do that deal?

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby illiniguy » Fri Dec 25, 2015 6:19 am

Stu wrote:What if Tampa offered Jake O and Kiermaier for Javy and Soler? Do you do that deal?

So fast before Tampa can try and take the offer off of the table.
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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby The Logan » Fri Dec 25, 2015 10:40 am

illiniguy wrote:
Stu wrote:What if Tampa offered Jake O and Kiermaier for Javy and Soler? Do you do that deal?

So fast before Tampa can try and take the offer off of the table.


My love of dong heavy offense disagrees with that, though I acknowledge Kiermaier's presence as the best defensive CF'er in baseball and how valuable that would be allowing Heyward to stay in RF where he is the best defensive RF in baseball.

With how defensive metrics aren't particularly exact, I wonder how much of Kiermaiers WAR value is skewed from flawed metrics?

He was a 7.3 rWAR and 5.5 fWAR player last year. And it was pretty much all defensive value. Is it worth having a light hitting ultra elite defensive outfielder over an average fielding and above average hitting outfielder?

EDIT: He was 7.3 rWAR, not 7.7
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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby Tim » Fri Dec 25, 2015 11:11 am

The Logan wrote:
illiniguy wrote:
Stu wrote:What if Tampa offered Jake O and Kiermaier for Javy and Soler? Do you do that deal?

So fast before Tampa can try and take the offer off of the table.


My love of dong heavy offense disagrees with that, though I acknowledge Kiermaier's presence as the best defensive CF'er in baseball and how valuable that would be allowing Heyward to stay in RF where he is the best defensive RF in baseball.

With how defensive metrics aren't particularly exact, I wonder how much of Kiermaiers WAR value is skewed from flawed metrics?

He was a 7.7 rWAR and 5.5 fWAR player last year. And it was pretty much all defensive value. Is it worth having a light hitting ultra elite defensive outfielder over an average fielding and above average hitting outfielder?

And...How much does 81 games at Wrigley factor into the answer?
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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby mul21 » Fri Dec 25, 2015 11:13 am

Somewhere like Coors or Petco I could see that as a reasonable approach, but as small as Wrigley is, I don't think that's the way to go.
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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Dec 25, 2015 11:54 am

With Kiermaier in CF, the Rays might be willing to part with Desmond Jennings. Jennings and Odorizzi for Soler + a bunch of prospects.

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Fri Dec 25, 2015 2:24 pm

Javy is too valuable to us as a utility guy/backup this year. We need him more than we need to use him in a deal for a SP. We can win a WS with this team as it currently is, and if by mid season Theo wants to upgrade the rotation or CF I think he'll be able to accomplish it without using Javy.

I mean, we all know Javy's warts, so does every other GM out there. There may some teams that dont want him and would prefer a grouping from the likes of Torres/Jiminez/McKinney/Happ/Almora, etc

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby David » Fri Dec 25, 2015 2:45 pm

yeah, i guess you'd have to take Kiermaier but damn it it'd go against every fiber of my being. i want maximum dongs.
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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby sneakypower » Fri Dec 25, 2015 8:52 pm

The Logan wrote:
illiniguy wrote:
Stu wrote:What if Tampa offered Jake O and Kiermaier for Javy and Soler? Do you do that deal?

So fast before Tampa can try and take the offer off of the table.


My love of dong heavy offense disagrees with that, though I acknowledge Kiermaier's presence as the best defensive CF'er in baseball and how valuable that would be allowing Heyward to stay in RF where he is the best defensive RF in baseball.

With how defensive metrics aren't particularly exact, I wonder how much of Kiermaiers WAR value is skewed from flawed metrics?

He was a 7.3 rWAR and 5.5 fWAR player last year. And it was pretty much all defensive value. Is it worth having a light hitting ultra elite defensive outfielder over an average fielding and above average hitting outfielder?

EDIT: He was 7.3 rWAR, not 7.7

he had crazy statcast readings; (going off memory) he led baseball in OF throws over 100 MPH and had something like the 3rd fastest average max speed, right up there with some absolute burners who you'd expect in such lists

i don't mean to argue that i wholeheartedly agree he's worth 3 wins or whatever from catching baseballs, but between his incredible physical tools and reading a (great) piece like this that illustrates his dedication and talent you get the idea he's indisputably very valuable

all that being said, he's probably a bad fit for Wrigley imo
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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby StylesClash » Sat Dec 26, 2015 10:02 am

While I understand the appeal in Baez off the bench, I think the upside isn't as high as people think. Lets say Addison Russell's tweaks his hamstring in early May, requiring a DL stint, giving Baez the Shortstop job. The idea of a 23 year old extremely aggressive hitter excelling in a starting role, after being on the bench for an extended period of time, is fairly unrealistic in my mind.

Plus there's there's the mental makeup of Baez to consider. How will a 23 year old with incredible physical tools, who has excelled in the Minors, react to sporadic playing time? Will he pout? Will he be able to get into a rhythm while only hitting once per game?

I could easily see Baez not adjusting well to a part time role. This would hurt not only his stats, but his trade value, should a Starting Pitcher be needed come July.

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby Duke Silver » Sat Dec 26, 2015 10:58 am

StylesClash wrote:While I understand the appeal in Baez off the bench, I think the upside isn't as high as people think. Lets say Addison Russell's tweaks his hamstring in early May, requiring a DL stint, giving Baez the Shortstop job. The idea of a 23 year old extremely aggressive hitter excelling in a starting role, after being on the bench for an extended period of time, is fairly unrealistic in my mind.

Plus there's there's the mental makeup of Baez to consider. How will a 23 year old with incredible physical tools, who has excelled in the Minors, react to sporadic playing time? Will he pout? Will he be able to get into a rhythm while only hitting once per game?

I could easily see Baez not adjusting well to a part time role. This would hurt not only his stats, but his trade value, should a Starting Pitcher be needed come July.


While you could argue that Baez's stats only looked decent because of BABIP, he seemed to react fine to sporadic playing time in September and in the playoffs last year.

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby davell » Sat Dec 26, 2015 12:21 pm

I don't see sporadic playing time. He'!l get into most every game as a PH/defensive replacement that he isn't already starting in. And he'll start a ton too. With the versatility we've got, he'll be starting plenty while Soler/Schwarber/Zobrist/Russell get days off. Not to mention, he becomes a full time player if anyone goes on the DL.

My prediction is 477 AB's with a .261/.300/.454 line. 16 HR with a 31.1% K rate.
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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby Backtobanks » Sat Dec 26, 2015 4:20 pm

davell wrote:I don't see sporadic playing time. He'!l get into most every game as a PH/defensive replacement that he isn't already starting in. And he'll start a ton too. With the versatility we've got, he'll be starting plenty while Soler/Schwarber/Zobrist/Russell get days off. Not to mention, he becomes a full time player if anyone goes on the DL.

My prediction is 477 AB's with a .261/.300/.454 line. 16 HR with a 31.1% K rate.


I still don't see that many AB's unless someone is seriously injured. A PH usually gets 1 AB, while a defensive replacement may not get any. I still question how often Baez will start in the OF and I don't believe Joe is going to bench Zobrist too often in favor of Baez.

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby davell » Sat Dec 26, 2015 5:26 pm

Not the point. Zobrist doesn't HAVE to play 2B. He can play LF/RF with Javy taking 2B on days Soler or Schwarber are rested. There'll be plenty of AB's for Javy, as long as he can handle them.
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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby Gilby » Sat Dec 26, 2015 7:25 pm

I don't think lack of AB's will be a huge issue. With the way the roster is currently constructed, he'll probably essentially be platooning with Schwarber. Also with Zobrist's age/knee issues and Russell's hammy history, he'll see time in those spots as well.

As far as predictions go, I lean more toward Kyle on this one. I just think MLB pitchers will eat him alive until we can't afford to carry him on the roster anymore. I obviously hope I'm wrong. The dude is super fun to watch with that ridiculous swing and his flashiness on defense (I still think his overall ability on defense is overrated). But I just don't think that approach is good enough to sustain any real success.

I like Adam Warren and I expect Zobrist to be really solid for at least a few years, so I'm not upset by that trade, but I expect Starlin to outperform Javy by a lot in 2016.

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby Tim » Sat Dec 26, 2015 7:35 pm

I like the Steamer projection: .252/.302/.457 across 335 PA
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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby Vanilla Ice » Sat Dec 26, 2015 8:31 pm

davell wrote:Not the point. Zobrist doesn't HAVE to play 2B. He can play LF/RF with Javy taking 2B on days Soler or Schwarber are rested. There'll be plenty of AB's for Javy, as long as he can handle them.

I've gotta think that Coghlan will be soaking up a good portion of the Soler/Schwarber off days, though

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Re: Javy Baez 2016 Prediction

Postby davell » Sat Dec 26, 2015 9:10 pm

Vanilla Ice wrote:
davell wrote:Not the point. Zobrist doesn't HAVE to play 2B. He can play LF/RF with Javy taking 2B on days Soler or Schwarber are rested. There'll be plenty of AB's for Javy, as long as he can handle them.

I've gotta think that Coghlan will be soaking up a good portion of the Soler/Schwarber off days, though


I would agree, but I think he'll be dealt before Opening Day, likely for bullpen help.
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