Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Discussion about other teams, non-cubs players, baseball history, sabr vs scouting, etc.

What will the win total of St Louis be in 2016?

Under 88 Wins
19
53%
88 Wins Exactly
3
8%
89-93 Wins
13
36%
Above 93 Wins
1
3%
 
Total votes: 36

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David
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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby David » Tue Dec 29, 2015 8:40 am

StylesClash wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
StylesClash wrote:
David wrote:yes, the majority of lefties do worse and/or poorly against lefties. even rizzo probably won't continue to do as well against them as he has (but he's still probably better than your typical lefty vs them). that's not a big deal.

and heyward wouldn't be overpaid even if you pretended his defensive contribution was average, which is obviously nowhere near the truth.


160 or so at bats per year of poor offensive production is pretty significant when you're paying someone 20 million a year. From what I've heard Schwarber's minor league track record against lefties is rather good. If he can manage to put together an OPS of around 750 against lefties, while Heyward continues to struggle to the tune of around 660 or so, I'll be curious if there will be consideration of putting Baez in a Center Field platoon (atleast in smaller parks).

A ~.660 OPS against LHP would have been about top 20 in baseball last year for CF, add in likely plus defense and Heyward should be starting in CF almost every game against LHP.


As you stated before, at Wrigley there isn't a lot of ground to cover. So if Baez is able to show he's capable in Center Field I think a platoon, in smaller parks, is an option which should be considered. Baez putting together a lefty OPS of over 700 is fairly realistic in my mind. Plus it's not a bad idea to give someone who has a lot of big league starts under his belt the occasional day off.


i wouldn't do it as a straight platoon, as that isn't necessarily nor do i think it makes us better. starting baez in cf in wrigley against the especially tough LHP would be fine and i might even expect it. at least for as long as baez can show competence.
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Cubswin11
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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Dec 29, 2015 9:00 am

David wrote:
StylesClash wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
StylesClash wrote:
David wrote:yes, the majority of lefties do worse and/or poorly against lefties. even rizzo probably won't continue to do as well against them as he has (but he's still probably better than your typical lefty vs them). that's not a big deal.

and heyward wouldn't be overpaid even if you pretended his defensive contribution was average, which is obviously nowhere near the truth.


160 or so at bats per year of poor offensive production is pretty significant when you're paying someone 20 million a year. From what I've heard Schwarber's minor league track record against lefties is rather good. If he can manage to put together an OPS of around 750 against lefties, while Heyward continues to struggle to the tune of around 660 or so, I'll be curious if there will be consideration of putting Baez in a Center Field platoon (atleast in smaller parks).

A ~.660 OPS against LHP would have been about top 20 in baseball last year for CF, add in likely plus defense and Heyward should be starting in CF almost every game against LHP.


As you stated before, at Wrigley there isn't a lot of ground to cover. So if Baez is able to show he's capable in Center Field I think a platoon, in smaller parks, is an option which should be considered. Baez putting together a lefty OPS of over 700 is fairly realistic in my mind. Plus it's not a bad idea to give someone who has a lot of big league starts under his belt the occasional day off.


i wouldn't do it as a straight platoon, as that isn't necessarily nor do i think it makes us better. starting baez in cf in wrigley against the especially tough LHP would be fine and i might even expect it. at least for as long as baez can show competence.

Yeah obviously there shouldn't be a straight platoon and Heyward won't start 162 games. So over the course of the year if Baez starts for him ~10 times in CF against a particularly tough LHP matchup for Heyward, whether it's a specific pitcher or type of LHP he has struggled most against, I'm completely fine with that.

Also if Baez can only manage roughly a .700 OPS vs LHP I don't know if he's a better option for CF (other than those 10 or so games) vs Heyward at his career average of .660 when you factor in defense.
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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby NonProfitCow » Tue Dec 29, 2015 2:33 pm

Grichuk's bat will fall off a cliff, but he'll provide some defensive value and a SLG heavy ~.700 OPS.
Gyorko will help keep Peralta and Wong fresh, while being a good bench bat and platoon partner for Wong/Adams.
Pena can actually capably back up Molina, so I'd bet on Molina having a bit of an uptick offensively.
Not too worried about Holliday's health.

They're not going to have historic run prevention again, but I expect the offense to score more, as it's almost a dead cat bounce.

No real gaping holes, and a lot of depth. Collection of a lot of valuable players that can be plugged in and moved around.

I say they win 90.

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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby sneakypower » Tue Dec 29, 2015 3:43 pm

StylesClash wrote:
David wrote:yes, the majority of lefties do worse and/or poorly against lefties. even rizzo probably won't continue to do as well against them as he has (but he's still probably better than your typical lefty vs them). that's not a big deal.

and heyward wouldn't be overpaid even if you pretended his defensive contribution was average, which is obviously nowhere near the truth.


160 or so at bats per year of poor offensive production is pretty significant when you're paying someone 20 million a year. From what I've heard Schwarber's minor league track record against lefties is rather good. If he can manage to put together an OPS of around 750 against lefties, while Heyward continues to struggle to the tune of around 660 or so, I'll be curious if there will be consideration of putting Baez in a Center Field platoon (atleast in smaller parks).

i hate to tell you he's going to have like 400 or so plate appearances of poor offensive production
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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby StylesClash » Wed Dec 30, 2015 7:59 am

Have 2016 projection slash lines been released for Piscotty and Grichuk yet? And in general how accurate are sites like fangraphs with their projections?

By the way, its a shame the Cards with able to land Mike Leake. One of their biggest question marks was rotation durability, and they picked up a starter under the age of 30 who's a near lock for around 180 innings and an ERA around four. And signing Leake didn't require giving up one of their first round picks either.

I'm also very curious about Adam Wainwright. I would assume the odds of an Achilles injury leading to chronic issues are well below those of the elbow and shoulder. So if he's able to come close to regaining his 2013/2014 form that's another factor that could help lessen the blow of losing Heyward, Lackey and Lynn.

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Sammy Sofa
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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Dec 30, 2015 9:42 am

I think this is the guy who keeps hacking the board.
Abbc3 Spoiler Show

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David
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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby David » Wed Dec 30, 2015 10:07 am

StylesClash wrote:Have 2016 projection slash lines been released for Piscotty and Grichuk yet? And in general how accurate are sites like fangraphs with their projections?

By the way, its a shame the Cards with able to land Mike Leake. One of their biggest question marks was rotation durability, and they picked up a starter under the age of 30 who's a near lock for around 180 innings and an ERA around four. And signing Leake didn't require giving up one of their first round picks either.

I'm also very curious about Adam Wainwright. I would assume the odds of an Achilles injury leading to chronic issues are well below those of the elbow and shoulder. So if he's able to come close to regaining his 2013/2014 form that's another factor that could help lessen the blow of losing Heyward, Lackey and Lynn.


ZiPS isn't out yet for them. Steamer is:

Piscotty - .267/.327/.407 .319 wOBA 103 wRC+

Grichuk - .249/.296/.445 .317 wOBA 101 wRC+

Projections might be low on both players because both were guys who performed much better in the big leagues than their minors numbers ever really foretold. That may have just been luck (both guys had pretty high BABIPs last year) and that may have been adjustment/development. Probably some combination of the two.
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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby Derwood » Wed Dec 30, 2015 2:08 pm

I can't believe there's actual serious discussion about the 2016 Cardinals. Who the [expletive] cares what those drunks are going to do? Take it to GRB

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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby StylesClash » Thu Dec 31, 2015 6:09 am

David wrote:
StylesClash wrote:Have 2016 projection slash lines been released for Piscotty and Grichuk yet? And in general how accurate are sites like fangraphs with their projections?

By the way, its a shame the Cards with able to land Mike Leake. One of their biggest question marks was rotation durability, and they picked up a starter under the age of 30 who's a near lock for around 180 innings and an ERA around four. And signing Leake didn't require giving up one of their first round picks either.

I'm also very curious about Adam Wainwright. I would assume the odds of an Achilles injury leading to chronic issues are well below those of the elbow and shoulder. So if he's able to come close to regaining his 2013/2014 form that's another factor that could help lessen the blow of losing Heyward, Lackey and Lynn.


ZiPS isn't out yet for them. Steamer is:

Piscotty - .267/.327/.407 .319 wOBA 103 wRC+

Grichuk - .249/.296/.445 .317 wOBA 101 wRC+

Projections might be low on both players because both were guys who performed much better in the big leagues than their minors numbers ever really foretold. That may have just been luck (both guys had pretty high BABIPs last year) and that may have been adjustment/development. Probably some combination of the two.


Are Steamer or ZIP projections usually more accurate? If those are the approximate slash lines Piscotty and Grichuk actually produce in 2016 the Cardinal lineup is in big trouble.

As for the Cub projections, Soler with an OPS barely above 750 is a disappointment. Considering how well Soler ended the season, and his minor league track record, a lot of people on here seem to be expecting a big time breakout season.

It seems as though they're projecting Schwarber to platoon with Baez. If Schwarber doesn't start against lefties and can only produce an OPS of 819 I would be fairly surprised.

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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby Little Slide Rooter » Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:45 am

Who cares? Let us be their problem.

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Sammy's Boombox
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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby Sammy's Boombox » Mon Jan 04, 2016 10:45 am

http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25436059/look-the-cubs-cardinals-videoboard-wars-have-begun

"But we did get upset actually when the Cubs had a better videoboard than us. Especially with how it ended [in the National League Division Series] and all they're doing now, we don't want to be sitting behind the Cubs in anything."


What part of their organization hasn't let it be known that they're really pissed/worried about the Cubs since the end of the season?
CUBS PACKERS MIZZOU

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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby Banedon » Mon Jan 04, 2016 10:58 am

Sammy's Boombox wrote:http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25436059/look-the-cubs-cardinals-videoboard-wars-have-begun

"But we did get upset actually when the Cubs had a better videoboard than us. Especially with how it ended [in the National League Division Series] and all they're doing now, we don't want to be sitting behind the Cubs in anything."


What part of their organization hasn't let it be known that they're really pissed/worried about the Cubs since the end of the season?


It's actually hilarious that they just came out and said it was to compete with the Cubs videoboard.

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jersey cubs fan
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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:25 am

in the future we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, but the videoboard industrial complex.
Tim wrote:"Hawthorne Effect". Basically, people improve their behavior if they know they're being watched. I'm a competitive cur, so having friends that are also doing it drives me to want to "win" daily/weekly challenges and such.

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Re: Cardinal 2016 Expectations

Postby The_Achiever » Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:18 pm

Sammy's Boombox wrote:http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25436059/look-the-cubs-cardinals-videoboard-wars-have-begun

"But we did get upset actually when the Cubs had a better videoboard than us. Especially with how it ended [in the National League Division Series] and all they're doing now, we don't want to be sitting behind the Cubs in anything."


What part of their organization hasn't let it be known that they're really pissed/worried about the Cubs since the end of the season?


This is absolutely delicious, the Cubs are 100% in the heads of the cardinals.

Also I think it's funny how ripped off from Wrigley Busch is. Brick backstop, "rooftops", ballpark village, etc. Too bad they completely missed on the charm. (Although the food is good there).


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