Prospects who were never Cubs

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TruffleShuffle
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Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Jun 17, 2011 4:53 pm

general discussion thread for prospects who aren't in the cubs' system and have never been in the cubs' system.

some guys i like:
-bryce harper (duh... d-bag but going to be a beast)
-mike trout (again, duh... question to me is whether he's an above-average player or a superstar. can see him being a superstar because he doesn't have elite power but secondary skills are more important in the post-everyone-is-on-steroids era).
-shelby miller (not looking forward to him beating up on the cubs for the next 5-10 years)
-matt moore (should be fun watching him miss a lot of bats... also has sliced BB/9 IP rate from 5.1 to 3.8 to 2.8 the last 3 years)
-just about every prospect in the royals' system.
-billy hamilton - i'm not all that high on him, i just think it's awesome that he tries to steal every time he reaches base. he has 50 SB in 60 games this year, with a .291 OBP.
-dee gordon - again, i'm not all that high on him... was at a phillies-dodgers game and he pinch ran for a guy who singled in the 9th inning. it was 3-0 and the phillies were not really concerned about him, but i swear he would've had a decent chance of scoring on a routine single to cf. extremely fast but needs to improve rest of his game.

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby Bunts Lick Butts » Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:00 pm

Shelby Miller is so ungodly good, it makes me sick. He was born in 1990 and is currently sporting a 1.35 ERA in AA.
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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:09 pm

imb! wrote:Shelby Miller is so ungodly good, it makes me sick. He was born in 1990 and is currently sporting a 1.35 ERA in AA.


the weird part about his numbers is that he strikes out a TON of guys (12.38 K/9 IP) but he is sort of hittable (155 H in 172 IP). most guys who miss that many bats have really low hit rates (like matt moore). i guess it's probably just a command thing; his walk rate is only okay and maybe he just misses his spot in the strike zone too frequently. could also be a sample size thing, or maybe he has bad defenses behind him.

either way, i'd sure as hell take a guy who is dominating AA at age 20. he's gotta be in the discussion for best pitching prospect in the minors (others - matt moore, julio teheran, who am i missing?)

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby Little Slide Rooter » Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:20 pm

We can only hope that by the time Millers ready, Pujols is long gone, be it as a Cub or somewhere else and the Cards are in a desperate rebuilding phase.

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:25 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:
imb! wrote:Shelby Miller is so ungodly good, it makes me sick. He was born in 1990 and is currently sporting a 1.35 ERA in AA.


the weird part about his numbers is that he strikes out a TON of guys (12.38 K/9 IP) but he is sort of hittable (155 H in 172 IP). most guys who miss that many bats have really low hit rates (like matt moore). i guess it's probably just a command thing; his walk rate is only okay and maybe he just misses his spot in the strike zone too frequently. could also be a sample size thing, or maybe he has bad defenses behind him.

either way, i'd sure as hell take a guy who is dominating AA at age 20. he's gotta be in the discussion for best pitching prospect in the minors (others - matt moore, julio teheran, who am i missing?)


They're further away but I like Jameson Taillon and Zach Lee.

Also, there's Martin Perez, who nearly signed with the Cubs.

I think I'd go Teheran, Miller, Taillon, Moore, Perez in that order as the top 5 pitching prospects in the minors now.

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby Bunts Lick Butts » Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:38 pm

Teheran tossed like 150 innings as a 19-year old, that seems like a lot to me.
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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby illiniguy » Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:49 pm

I know he's off to a slow start, but I love me some Wil Myers.
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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Jun 17, 2011 6:08 pm

imb! wrote:Teheran tossed like 150 innings as a 19-year old, that seems like a lot to me.


he had a game in may where he threw 120 pitches. i have him as a keeper in a fantasy league and was not at all happy about that.

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby Splendid Splinter » Fri Jun 17, 2011 9:19 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:general discussion thread for prospects who aren't in the cubs' system and have never been in the cubs' system.

some guys i like:
-mike trout (again, duh... question to me is whether he's an above-average player or a superstar. can see him being a superstar because he doesn't have elite power but secondary skills are more important in the post-everyone-is-on-steroids era).



I've seen Trout several times already. I live in Fayetteville, AR and the Northwest Arkansas Naturals' stadium is like 5 minutes from me so I've seen a lot of AA ball in the Texas League this year. I've seen all 8 games (2 series) that the Travelers (Angels AA team) been here so far. I'm hoping that Trout will still be around the next time they come back (Aug. 5th-8th) so I can watch him some more. I wrote a personal scouting report on Trout after the 2 series. This is my first scouting report ever so bear with me as I haven't started/finished the summary part and it might not be the greatest (as I probably hype him up too much and doesn't critique his weakness enough)... Hopefully if he's still there in August and possibly Sept. as well (last series of the season for Naturals/Travelers) so I can watch him again and either tweak my report or add more to it.

Mike Trout Scouting Report

Projection:
Let me tell you that the guy is LEGIT... Of course anything can happen in the future, but right now, Trout is going to be a superstar. He might not be that HR machine/slugger type superstar, but more along the line of Carlos Beltran/Grady Sizemore 5 tools type superstar. I know some people compare Trout to Johnny Damon. While I can see some of the similarity, Trout is better than that, by a good margin IMO based on his tools. Trout got better arm/speed/eye. I wouldn't complain though if he has a career like Damon's or being compared to him either. For Trout's potential career year (while using Damon as a comparsion), Damon's 2000 season is pretty close, but I would add like 10 HRs and about 20 BBs which would put the OPS at about .980ish I think. That's a career year, not peak. Peak wise (lets say 5 years)... I can see him in the .850-.920 OPS range. The comparsion I like to use (even though the guy is still young and who knows how he'll end up) for Trout is Andrew McCutchen.

Build:
On Baseball-Reference, they have him as 6'1 200 lbs. He looks like to me he's about 215, maybe 220 IMO and the height is probably right (I'm 6'2-6'3 230-240 and when he signed my card, he was smaller and a tad shorter than me). For comparsion, I saw Brett Jackson in 2009 at Peoria and he's a tad taller, but skinnier than Trout (that could be different now with B Jax). From looking at him, I can't really see him adding that much more weight until he gets older (in the mid 30s) or just quits working out or something. He already got broad shoulders and a running back build. People at the games have said that he's stocky, but I don't see it. He's not like Marlon Byrd. He holds his weight well.

Hitting:
I'm going to go into more details in the other parts of hitting so this part will be short. He got the tools to be a perennial .300 hitter. He does use the whole field.

Swing:
I'm going to try to do this part, but I'm not exactly an expert or really knows the mechanics of the swing yet. He does have a wide stance and seems balanced through the whole swing. He just lift the front leg up a little bit and that's it. The swing looks like it's short, quick, and a little compact, but a strong swing though. It's more of a "contact with gap power" type swing. He got some loft in his swing, but not enough to be a slugger. He does drive the ball and come off the bat well so I can see a bunch of doubles/triples coming from him. Bat speed looks good and fast. One thing I did noticed though is that his weakness at the plate looks like to be pitches that are inside. I wanna say Starlin Castro, but I don't know if that's a good comparsion.

Power:
He got the power. There's no denying that, but will we see his full potential??? I think it depends on if he wants to add more loft to his swing (who knows how that'll end up though) or not. The HR I saw was a line drive that stayed up/rises. It wasn't like a rocket line drive like Albert Pujols or a bomb like Prince Fielder. Trout's going to hit for doubles and triples with his line drives swing and speed. If I had to project his HR range, Cal Ripken, Jr is a good comparsion (mid teens to high 20s) if you mix up his HR years. I think you can safely say that he won't be a slugger or hit 30+ HRs (unless he add loft in his swing or career power year), but above average to great power as a leadoff or 2 hitter and for a CF.

Eye:
People talk about his hitting or contact skills, but I think his approach/eye is underrated. It might be as great as his speed IMO. He has great feel of the strike zone. Has very good patience and discipline at the plate. He, for the most part, didn't swing at the first pitch. I think I saw him chase like 1 bad pitch so it seems like he doesn't chase them that often or is a bad ball hitter. He does shorten his swing when he has 2 strikes and try to hit opposite field (think Ryan Theriot). Does adjust quickly.

Speed:
The best tool he has. It's amazing how fast he is. Again it looks naturally fast instead of like Joey Gathright/Dee Gordon speed burner. It's doesnt look like he got gears, but instead he just gradually gets faster and faster (when he's going for a double or triple). Had 2 infield singles that I've seen and being a RH hitter, that's impressive. Also bunted 3 times as well (one he popped up, one was sac bunt and reach safely in the other) and looks REALLY comfortable doing bunts which is rare for a guy his age. I can see him using that bunt as a weapon if the 3B or 1B is playing deep or just isn't paying attention. Rocco Baldelli is a good comparsion cuz he's a RH hitter who was extremely fast from home to 1B. His baserunning seems to be good. Now as for his basestealing (again small sample), it needs some work, but can definately improve on it. His jump isn't the greatest, but his speed makes up for it right now. I still see him as a 30+ SBs guy in the majors, but he might have double digits in caught stealing though to do it.

Defense:
The guy is great defensively. Runs good routes, get good jumps, and because of those 2 things and his speed, his range is great. While his arm looks to be just average, but accurate (at least the games I've seen him in so far, he only had like 2 chances to show off his arm so super small sample). Which is weird cuz his arm is considered great or plus from some people so I don't know what to think of his arm at the moment. He honestly reminds me of Andruw Jones out there. What I mean by that is he makes everything out there looks easy or natural. He just... glides (tried to think of a different/better word) out there. Overall though, I would compare him again to Rocco Baldelli.

Summary:


I'm hoping to see Shelby Miller (just been hearing how AWESOME he is from everyone) as well. Springfield Cardinals are playing here for a 4 game series and he's not pitching. There is still 2 more series with Springfield in July so I'm hoping he pitches in both series so I can get to see him and take some notes as well.

Is there anybody else that someone want me to look at from the Texas League as I will go to more games this summer??? Positional players will be easier for me to scout as most of them play everyday while I might not see the pitcher at all. Plus I'm still learning how to scout pitchers as well.
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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Jun 17, 2011 9:22 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:They're further away but I like Jameson Taillon and Zach Lee.

Also, there's Martin Perez, who nearly signed with the Cubs.

I think I'd go Teheran, Miller, Taillon, Moore, Perez in that order as the top 5 pitching prospects in the minors now.


i'd probably agree with the names though maybe i'd have a different order. taillon it's so hard to say because he's only pitched a small handful of games as a high school draftee. i'd probably put moore ahead of taillon and maybe ahead of miller. teheran was most people's #1 coming into this year and aside from a couple of mediocre big league starts, he hasn't done anything to lose that evaluation.

jacob turner has also been very good at AA, putting up a 2.94 ERA so far at age 20. he hasn't been as dominant as miller but just as effective.

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby Splendid Splinter » Fri Jun 17, 2011 9:28 pm

Trout taking a lead at 1B...
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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Jun 17, 2011 10:01 pm

Splendid Splinter wrote:Is there anybody else that someone want me to look at from the Texas League as I will go to more games this summer??? Positional players will be easier for me to scout as most of them play everyday while I might not see the pitcher at all. Plus I'm still learning how to scout pitchers as well.


nice report. i think i remember reading in baseball america that his arm is his weakest tool, which would mesh with your evaluation of him.

as for TL guys, i'll take a look through the league rosters.

arkansas: not much else there. watch loek van mil, just because you'll be watching the tallest pitcher in baseball history.

corpus christi: astros' system is lousy but some of their prospects are here. probably the most interesting guy to me is 2B jose altuve, who's like 5'5" and is hated by scouts, but he's been destroying the ball this year (.398/.438/.613/1.051 at two levels). even with poor physical appearance, you have to take notice when a 21 year old guy puts up those numbers at high A and AA. j. villar (ss) was one of their better prospects coming into this year; just based on stats he's been overmatched since his promotion to AA, but he's only 20. j.d. martinez (of) was one of their top 10 prospects according to BP; he's hit for a pretty empty good average so far this year.

frisco: martin perez (sp) is regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. engel beltre (of) is supposed to have great tools, but hasn't hit since reaching AA. tommy mendonca (3b) has put up good numbers; don't know much about him. robbie erlin (sp) had video game numbers (54 ip, 5 bb, 62 k) at high A; he's been more hittable since reaching AA but still shows great command and is young for the level.

midland: grant green (ss) was a high draft pick but has been mediocre this year. steven parker (3b) was #10 prospect coming into this year. jeremy barfield isn't much of a prospect, but he's another one of the barfield clan.

will get to the rest another time.

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby illiniguy » Sat Jun 18, 2011 11:19 am

Anyone on here get a chance to see Kane County at all? I'm really curious to hear what people think of Yordano Ventura.
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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby Outshined_One » Sat Jun 18, 2011 12:01 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:I think I'd go Teheran, Miller, Taillon, Moore, Perez in that order as the top 5 pitching prospects in the minors now.


Taillon's given up the same number of BBs as HRs this season (4). That's unbelievable.

I'd probably throw Jacob Turner into that mix, but I get the feeling the Tigers will somehow screw him up like they've done with pretty much every pitching prospect they've had since Verlander.

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby Shilzzz » Sat Jun 18, 2011 12:04 pm

would you say trout has a plus-plus rump?

it's pretty cool to see guys like randall delgado, teheran, rubby de la rosa, etc getting call ups earlier than projected ETAs. matt moore is a stud
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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby TruffleShuffle » Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:14 pm

mike trout has 10 hr, 8 triples and 9 hr and an ops just shy of 1.000 in AA as a 19 year old. i'd really like to know how he made it to #25 in that draft because his tools are fantastic and he's been amazing since the day he signed with the angels.

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby Bunts Lick Butts » Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:18 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:mike trout has 10 hr, 8 triples and 9 hr and an ops just shy of 1.000 in AA as a 19 year old. i'd really like to know how he made it to #25 in that draft because his tools are fantastic and he's been amazing since the day he signed with the angels.


I remember reading that it was because he was from NJ and scouts were worried about the competition level, I think. Wasn't there some NJ-area flameout a year or two before?
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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby TruffleShuffle » Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:25 pm

imb! wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:mike trout has 10 hr, 8 triples and 9 hr and an ops just shy of 1.000 in AA as a 19 year old. i'd really like to know how he made it to #25 in that draft because his tools are fantastic and he's been amazing since the day he signed with the angels.


I remember reading that it was because he was from NJ and scouts were worried about the competition level, I think. Wasn't there some NJ-area flameout a year or two before?


maybe billy rowell? orioles drafted him early in 2006 and he has been awful. off the top of my head, he's the only really high south jersey draft pick in the last 6 years besides trout.

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby Bunts Lick Butts » Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:27 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:
imb! wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:mike trout has 10 hr, 8 triples and 9 hr and an ops just shy of 1.000 in AA as a 19 year old. i'd really like to know how he made it to #25 in that draft because his tools are fantastic and he's been amazing since the day he signed with the angels.


I remember reading that it was because he was from NJ and scouts were worried about the competition level, I think. Wasn't there some NJ-area flameout a year or two before?


maybe billy rowell? orioles drafted him early in 2006 and he has been awful. off the top of my head, he's the only really high south jersey draft pick in the last 6 years besides trout.


Yep, it was Rowell.

I remember seeing video of him taking BP and his power looked ungodly.
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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:40 pm

Yeah, it was questions about his playing competition.

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Jun 29, 2011 8:57 pm

donovan tate (#3 overall pick by padres in 2009 draft, $6m bonus) has been suspended for 50 games for a second positive drug test.

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 29, 2011 9:13 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:donovan tate (#3 overall pick by padres in 2009 draft, $6m bonus) has been suspended for 50 games for a second positive drug test.


He tested positive for Spice, a synthetic cannabis.

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby jame.gumb » Thu Jun 30, 2011 6:54 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:donovan tate (#3 overall pick by padres in 2009 draft, $6m bonus) has been suspended for 50 games for a second positive drug test.


He tested positive for Spice, a synthetic cannabis.


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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby KingCubsFan » Thu Jun 30, 2011 8:19 am

Tate won't be as big of a bust as Bush, but he's certainly trying.

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Re: Prospects who were never Cubs

Postby TruffleShuffle » Thu Jun 30, 2011 8:38 am

actually he'd be a bigger bust, since bush was a signability pick forced by ownership and tate was a bonus baby who received twice what bush got.


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