2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

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2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:51 am

Kiley with lots of words: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting ... nt-4788201

Highlights:

I was told a few players with the DPL didn’t make this stateside trip and likely won’t be working out for scouts anymore because they’re believed to already have verbal deals worked out.  The best prospect of this bunch not making the trip has a name you’ll recognize: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.  I won’t mention the team that every scout I talked to said Guerrero has a deal with, but the rumored price tag is $3.2 million.  Here’s a video from the only time I scouted him, in January 2014 in the DPL underclass showcase.

...

CF Starling Heredia may be the top prospect in this class and his price tag is rumored to be around $3.5 million, with multiple scouts mentioning the Cubs as the most interested team, though that isn’t a done deal by any means.  Heredia hit some balls out to center field in BP and ran a 6.62 time in the 60, both plus tools to go with his plus bat speed.  His speed plays down a bit in games right now, but it’s common for kids like this to get a little faster in the next few years.

He’s advanced at the plate for his age because, despite a leg kick some coaches would want to immediately tone down, Heredia does a good job staying balanced, keeping his head very still and tucking his hands in to get around on the inside pitch.  His swing still breaks down in a couple game swings above, but some teenage toolsheds never show that level of feel for a swing, especially with that Manny Ramirez-style swing that’s so common on the island.


Other top prospects:

  • SS Wander Javier - possible $2 million bonus
  • RF Franklin Reyes - possible $2 million bonus
  • RHP Luis Medina
  • RF Juan Soto
  • RF Robert Barreras
  • SS Onil Cruz
  • Jeffey Ramos
  • 3B Welin Liriano
  • SS Jeison Guzman

And looking at 2016-17:

I’m often asked way before July 2nd if that year’s international signing class of Latin 16-year-olds has a franchise type, once-a-decade player—Miguel Cabrera, Miguel Sano, Felix Hernandez, etc.—which is the question I often find myself asking scouts to open a discussion about the top players in the class. In short, there isn’t that player (yet) for next July 2nd, though I’ll get another look at many of the top players in the class next month. There are already rumors of a player in the upcoming class having a deal for $3 million, but multiple players get about that much every year, even with the new international pools in place, so that doesn’t automatically make him that super elite prospect.

However, there is a player for the 2016 July 2nd period, 22 months from now, that is drawing that kind of scouting attention. He’s 14 years old and he’s a Venezuelan shortstop named Kevin Maitan.

You hear almost every star player from a Latin country eventually used as a comparison for a raw teenager, but international scouts generally don’t invoke Miguel Cabrera. That’s the Bo Jackson-type talent you don’t use to compare to teenagers. Even Vladimir Guerrero gets comp’d sometimes, though with Vlady’s son being in this year’s July 2nd crop and having similar mannerisms, that at least makes some sense.

Maitan has been compared to Cabrera by most of the scouts I’ve asked about him. He’s unusually physically mature for his age and flashes all the tools you want to see to throw that Cabrera comp around: he can play shortstop pretty well now, he’s got more raw power than most kids a few years older than him, he has smooth actions in defense and at the plate and so on.

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Angency Thread

Postby Agony and Ivy » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:22 pm

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/yoan-moncada-to-hold-showcase.html

Yoan Moncada is seeking free agency and that could be a game changer depending on when he's declared a FA. Git r done Theo! I want ALL THE SHORTSTOPS!

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Angency Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Nov 03, 2014 12:03 am

Agony and Ivy wrote:http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/yoan-moncada-to-hold-showcase.html

Yoan Moncada is seeking free agency and that could be a game changer depending on when he's declared a FA. Git r done Theo! I want ALL THE SHORTSTOPS!


Theo can't sign Yoan unless he's still free on 7/2/15 (technically, we just need to get to 6/15/15 since no one can sign international guys tied to the bonus pools between 6/16 and 7/1) and I don't think it'll get dragged out that long.

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Angency Thread

Postby treebird » Mon Nov 03, 2014 12:21 am

fix the title

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Nov 03, 2014 1:23 am

Ack. Sorry about that.

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby treebird » Mon Nov 03, 2014 2:09 am

no apologies thanks for posting all this stuff like this

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Nov 03, 2014 10:43 am

@BenBadler: Big Devers fan, but Moncada's ahead RT @NYYBaseball2 Loved your article on Moncada! Does Rafael Devers have that same offensive ceiling?


Most publications that ranked IFAs had Devers amongst the top three 16-year olds in 2013, along with Eloy Jimenez and Gleyber Torres. And Devers had a really strong debut season too.

And here's how the Cubs (or Rangers) could still sign Moncada:

@BenBadler: Yes. Make him a big offer, convince him to wait to sign RT @RaisinMan101 Do you see any way Moncada lasts till 7/2/15 for Cubs or Rangers?

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Nov 03, 2014 10:59 am

More from Ben Badler on Moncada and a few other Cuban defectors who fall under the bonus restrictions:

Young infielders Yoan Moncada and Andy Ibanez both are out of Cuba. Moncada, 19, is the subject of tremendous interest among teams, as I get asked nearly every day about what’s going on with Moncada, who’s believed to be in Guatemala. The back story behind Moncada is extremely unusual and a little unseemly, even by typical stories of Cuban players leaving the island, but he’s a tremendous talent who’s better than anyone in the 2015 draft and dominated the Cuban junior leagues much like Jorge Soler and Yasiel Puig did. Neither Moncada or Ibanez are free agents yet, though that should be coming this offseason.

...

The Red Sox could also have interest in Cuban players who fall under the international bonus pools, where they would have somewhat of an advantage over other teams. Like the Yankees and Rays, the Red Sox have already blown well beyond their bonus pool into the maximum penalty range, which means they can’t sign anyone subject to the pools for more than $300,000 the next two signing periods, beginning July 2, 2015, and they’re subject to a 100 percent tax on their 2014-15 pool overage. Since they’re already in the max penalty range, they don’t have to make the decision that most other clubs face over whether it’s worth it to go over their pool sit out on players for more than $300,000 for the next two years.

Moncada and Ibanez are the top names among players subject to the bonus pools, but the Red Sox are known to have scouted 23-year-old righthander Jorge Despaigne in a private workout. In Cuba, Despaigne struggled with his control, though sources in Cuba said Despaigne was one of the country’s more intriguing up-and-coming arms due to his ability to supposedly throw in the mid-90s, although I’ve never seen him enough to confirm that myself. In September, though, Despaigne had an open showcase where he struggled, topping out at 91 mph, so he will have to show more than that to get major league clubs excited. The Dodgers have also held a private workout for Despaigne, who has an open showcase along with Toscano today in the Dominican Republic after the International Prospect League showcase concludes.

• Another Cuban pitcher subject to the bonus pools is Yoan Lopez, a former teammate with Despaigne on Isla De La Juventud. Lopez is a free agent with residency in Haiti, although he still has to obtain a specific license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury before MLB will let him sign. Lopez has not worked out for clubs yet, but he has an open showcase at the Giants’ academy in the Dominican Republic on Saturday. Lopez, 21, is 6-foot-3, 190 pounds and played three seasons in Cuba. Last year in his final season (2013-14), Lopez started seven games and had a 3.12 ERA, 28 strikeouts and 11 walks in 49 innings before he defected midway through the season.

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Nov 03, 2014 11:02 am

Would you rather have our IFA class or a normal IFA class and the ability to go nuts on that guy?

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby Tim » Mon Nov 03, 2014 11:51 am

KyleJRM wrote:Would you rather have our IFA class or a normal IFA class and the ability to go nuts on that guy?

Can still go nuts on him. Just have to go a little extra nuts to convince him to wait until 7/2 to sign.
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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby davell » Mon Nov 03, 2014 1:35 pm

By the way, it's NOT the Cubs on Guerrero Jr, according to Kiley.
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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Nov 05, 2014 4:29 pm

Ben Badler wrote:There’s a high level of excitement among scouts about the 2015 international signing class, but there’s no 16-year-old player in Latin America who is close to Moncada. If Moncada were subject to the 2015 draft, he would be the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick. The top player on Baseball America’s 2015 draft board is Florida high school shortstop Brendan Rodgers, a tremendous prospect who combines good tools with a high baseball IQ. Moncada won’t play shortstop, but he could play just about anywhere else on the field and his tools across the board are spectacular.


Ben Badler theorizes that since the Angels are close to signing Cuban SS Roberto Baldoquin - who would make them go into the bonus penalty realm and isn't universally thought of as worth it - they might now have the motivation to go all out for Moncada since there won't be any additional penalties (just like the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees).

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:26 am

@BenBadler: Big day for international scouts tomorrow. Every team flying in to Guatemala to see a showcase for Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada.


We're probably being too optimistic talking about Yoan in this thread.

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:48 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
@BenBadler: Big day for international scouts tomorrow. Every team flying in to Guatemala to see a showcase for Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada.


We're probably being too optimistic talking about Yoan in this thread.


It's weird to me that people think it's a serious possibility we can convince him to just wait 7 months to sign or whatever.

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Nov 11, 2014 8:59 pm

There's a lot of shady stuff that goes on with IFA, especially Cuba. Additionally, he has yet to be cleared by the US government (which can take quite some time) so he can't sign yet.

More stuff from Badler:

@BenBadler: Unlike when Yasiel Puig showed up in Mexico, scouts won't be disappointed in Yoan Moncada's conditioning. Looks like he could lift a truck.

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby Tryptamine » Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:22 pm

Is there any actual rule that says the Cubs can't say OK come to us with your highest offer and we'll tack on another 5M if you wait until July 2nd to sign?

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:53 pm

Tryptamine wrote:Is there any actual rule that says the Cubs can't say OK come to us with your highest offer and we'll tack on another 5M if you wait until July 2nd to sign?


Outside of the rule of not spending over their cap, no.

And I imagine Moncada's agent wouldn't mind pushing negotiations towards April or May at the very least so they can try to get even better offers from teams like Boston who don't want to risk losing him after 6/15.

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Nov 12, 2014 2:01 am

Tryptamine wrote:Is there any actual rule that says the Cubs can't say OK come to us with your highest offer and we'll tack on another 5M if you wait until July 2nd to sign?


That'd have to fall under tampering
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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby mul21 » Wed Nov 12, 2014 7:28 am

SouthSideRyan wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:Is there any actual rule that says the Cubs can't say OK come to us with your highest offer and we'll tack on another 5M if you wait until July 2nd to sign?


That'd have to fall under tampering


Why? He's not signed with any team at that point. Shady negotiating tactics, yes, but tampering, I don't think it qualifies.
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2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Nov 12, 2014 8:05 am

Maybe they could penalize them on the basis of having a verbal agreement which violates their spending cap.


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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Nov 12, 2014 9:42 am

mul21 wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:Is there any actual rule that says the Cubs can't say OK come to us with your highest offer and we'll tack on another 5M if you wait until July 2nd to sign?


That'd have to fall under tampering


Why? He's not signed with any team at that point. Shady negotiating tactics, yes, but tampering, I don't think it qualifies.


It's coming to a verbal agreement with somebody you're ineligible to sign. It's not unlike entering a verbal contract with a 15 year old.

But Beltre was such a star prospect that the Dodgers wanted to add a year to his actual age to take him off the market immediately. As a result of the investigation, the Dodgers were banned from signing any Dominican-born amateur free agents for a year, and additionally, the team's Dominican academy was also shut down for a year. The Dodgers were fined $50,000 and the scout who signed Beltre, Pablo Peguero, and the Dodgers' head of Dominican operations, the famed Ralph Avila, served one-year suspensions.


Now the Dodgers case was worse because it was a written contract, and they likely enacted in fraud by fudging the birth year for Beltre, but it's still circumventing the rules in place to come to an agreement with a player you're not allowed to.
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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Nov 12, 2014 10:36 am

SouthSideRyan wrote:
mul21 wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:Is there any actual rule that says the Cubs can't say OK come to us with your highest offer and we'll tack on another 5M if you wait until July 2nd to sign?


That'd have to fall under tampering


Why? He's not signed with any team at that point. Shady negotiating tactics, yes, but tampering, I don't think it qualifies.


It's coming to a verbal agreement with somebody you're ineligible to sign. It's not unlike entering a verbal contract with a 15 year old.

But Beltre was such a star prospect that the Dodgers wanted to add a year to his actual age to take him off the market immediately. As a result of the investigation, the Dodgers were banned from signing any Dominican-born amateur free agents for a year, and additionally, the team's Dominican academy was also shut down for a year. The Dodgers were fined $50,000 and the scout who signed Beltre, Pablo Peguero, and the Dodgers' head of Dominican operations, the famed Ralph Avila, served one-year suspensions.


Now the Dodgers case was worse because it was a written contract, and they likely enacted in fraud by fudging the birth year for Beltre, but it's still circumventing the rules in place to come to an agreement with a player you're not allowed to.


Well, verbal agreements already happen before a team is eligible to sign a player - about a half dozen of the top 7/2 prospects for 2015 already have verbal agreements with teams and the Yankees went nuts doing this last 7/2 (and might have reneged on a verbal agreement too with no consequence).

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Nov 12, 2014 10:39 am

Passan says Moncada might get $40 million (which works out to $80 million with penalties): http://sports.yahoo.com/news/meet-the-l ... 16654.html

In Guatemala City on Wednesday, officials from all 30 major league teams are expected to attend the first official showcase for Moncada. He’ll hit. He’ll take ground balls at shortstop, his natural position, and perhaps third base, where many expect him to end up. They’ll see him in great shape, perhaps wearing a jersey with his name and the No. 24 he sported in Cuba. And then they’ll wait.

Major League Baseball currently is conducting its standard investigation into Moncada’s permanent residency in Guatemala and has yet to clear him. The Office of Foreign Assets Control must also unblock Moncada before he can sign with a team. Once that happens, the bidding is expected to go wild – far more wild than any since baseball implemented new rules in 2012 that were supposed to squash such exorbitant prices.

Two general managers and two other officials familiar with Moncada and Cuban baseball this week all agreed on the expected price once he hits the market: between $30 million and $40 million. While that’s close to what the similarly aged Puig ($42 million) and Soler ($30 million) received, the circumstances for Moncada are entirely different than when Puig and Soler signed in 2012.

...

The upshot: If a team does indeed give Moncada a $30 million deal, it will cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $60 million. Should the bidding jump to $40 million, Moncada would cost $80 million – more than Abreu, Rusney Castillo, Puig, Cespedes, Soler, Alexander Guerrero, Erisbel Arruebarrena or any of the other Cuban defectors to this point.

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:22 pm

The draft screws over amateur domestic talent so hard.

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Re: 2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

Postby Tryptamine » Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:50 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
mul21 wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:Is there any actual rule that says the Cubs can't say OK come to us with your highest offer and we'll tack on another 5M if you wait until July 2nd to sign?


That'd have to fall under tampering


Why? He's not signed with any team at that point. Shady negotiating tactics, yes, but tampering, I don't think it qualifies.


It's coming to a verbal agreement with somebody you're ineligible to sign. It's not unlike entering a verbal contract with a 15 year old.

But Beltre was such a star prospect that the Dodgers wanted to add a year to his actual age to take him off the market immediately. As a result of the investigation, the Dodgers were banned from signing any Dominican-born amateur free agents for a year, and additionally, the team's Dominican academy was also shut down for a year. The Dodgers were fined $50,000 and the scout who signed Beltre, Pablo Peguero, and the Dodgers' head of Dominican operations, the famed Ralph Avila, served one-year suspensions.


Now the Dodgers case was worse because it was a written contract, and they likely enacted in fraud by fudging the birth year for Beltre, but it's still circumventing the rules in place to come to an agreement with a player you're not allowed to.


The Cubs are allowed to sign Moncada, it just has to be for 250K before July 2nd. They're allowed to negotiate and discuss with him all they want so I don't know why they can't say, well we can offer you 250K today, but if you wait until July 2nd we can offer you 45M. It's not tampering because they are allowed to negotiate with him. I'd expect the commissioner's office to be pretty pissed off, but I don't see anything that circumvents it.


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