Minor League Pitcher of the Year

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Tim
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Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby Tim » Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:53 pm

At the risk of being mocked endlessly (no, there won't be a cash reward), let's pick a minor league player of the year and minor league pitcher of the year.

The criteria can be anything you want, just explain your answer.
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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:17 pm

Edwards Jr - Easily the most dominant of the pitchers in the system this year. I'm an optimist about the walks, but beyond that probably the best bet for an impact arm in the system right now, even if its "only" as a reliever.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby Tryptamine » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:19 pm

Ryan Williams.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby Tim » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:24 pm

Tryptamine wrote:Ryan Williams.

Easy choice.
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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby ctcf » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:25 pm

I was just going to post Williams. While it's probably not the sexiest choice, he zipped through the system and honestly, could quite conceivably be a back of the rotation option coming out of Spring Training next year which is just nuts. That makes him my number 1.

After that, I really like what I saw from Pierce Johnson when he got his time in this year.
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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:25 pm

Tryptamine wrote:Ryan Williams.


Yep. Reached AA less than year after getting drafted, 2.79/2.86 ERA/FIP in a very healthy sample, elite HR prevention, and enough velocity and results with hit prevention to think he can keep going with a less-than-exhilirating K rate.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby Tim » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:27 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Edwards Jr - Easily the most dominant of the pitchers in the system this year. I'm an optimist about the walks, but beyond that probably the best bet for an impact arm in the system right now, even if its "only" as a reliever.

The guy that was 10th in FIP (out of the pitchers I have in my tracking list) was easily the most dominant? Heck, David Garner had nearly the strikeout rate and less than half the walks. He's nowhere near the prospect status of CJr, but that isn't really what determines the answer to this particular question for me.
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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:13 pm

How do you calculate minor league FIP? "The same way you do major league FIP" wouldn't be my first thought, and my guess is thats the formula used. Beyond the Ks, I really think Edwards' hit and home run rates get undersold. They're a big part of the dominance. IIRC from a post on minorleagueball, his batted ball profile this year was mostly ground balls and non-pulled fly balls. Excellent season in a new role, walks be gosh darned.

Williams is a good pick in a Logan Watkins/Nick Sawyer kind of way. I'd give him the title just because it looks good on the trade bait resume.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby davell » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:41 pm

Williams is an easy choice.
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby Duke Silver » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:42 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:How do you calculate minor league FIP? "The same way you do major league FIP" wouldn't be my first thought, and my guess is thats the formula used. Beyond the Ks, I really think Edwards' hit and home run rates get undersold. They're a big part of the dominance. IIRC from a post on minorleagueball, his batted ball profile this year was mostly ground balls and non-pulled fly balls. Excellent season in a new role, walks be gosh darned.

Williams is a good pick in a Logan Watkins/Nick Sawyer kind of way. I'd give him the title just because it looks good on the trade bait resume.


Williams is a good pick because he had the best season of any of our minor league pitchers.

I would probably have to go through at least 3 or 4 guys before getting to Edwards for this award. Just off the top of my head: Williams, Markey, and Pierce Johnson all had better seasons.

For one, they were starters. They pitched more innings. And they were more successful in those innings.

I know you keep saying over and over, "Ah, forget about the walks." But, it's hard to do that when he walked like 7 guys per 9 innings. It was a pretty horrible year for him, mainly because he is a much, much better prospect than those guys and didn't pitch like it.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:29 pm

I agree with Duke's top three - Williams, Markey and Johnson (who is knocked a bit for having fewer innings).

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:32 pm

Horrible year? Not even kinda sorta, but I'm down to agree to disagree. It's whatever because guys like Williams and Markey often win these kind of org awards, but this was not a horrible year for Edwards.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby CubsWin » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:33 pm

Minor League Pitcher of the Year is very different from the organization's best pitching prospect. It's the prospect who had the best season. And that clearly goes to Ryan Williams. On the year, 14-3, 2.16, 98/18 K/BB, 0.90 WHIP, .214 OppBA. On top of all that, his story is the best. 10th rounder made good, jumping from Low-A to AA and still performing well.

If Duane Underwood hadn't gotten injured and missed 2 months, he would've made this choice a lot harder. It's unusual for a short season guy to even get a mention for this award because of the lack of playing time, but Oscar De La Cruz's season was pretty special. His emergence from being an unheralded IFA signing to someone on par with Carson Sands and Justin Steele is impressive. He gets an honorable mention from me.
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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:46 pm

CubsWin wrote:Minor League Pitcher of the Year is very different from the organization's best pitching prospect. It's the prospect who had the best season. And that clearly goes to Ryan Williams. On the year, 14-3, 2.16, 98/18 K/BB, 0.90 WHIP, .214 OppBA. On top of all that, his story is the best. 10th rounder made good, jumping from Low-A to AA and still performing well.


It's more about how good Edwards was this year. We're talking a guy who struck out 1/3 of the batters he faced, allowed 8 XBHs - 7 of them doubles, allowed a sub-.500 OPS including a sub-.300 OBP and sub-.150 BAA....These are some dominant numbers. That he happened to already be the best pitching prospect is coincidence, I was on the fence about him until this performance.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby CubsWin » Tue Sep 08, 2015 12:36 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
CubsWin wrote:Minor League Pitcher of the Year is very different from the organization's best pitching prospect. It's the prospect who had the best season. And that clearly goes to Ryan Williams. On the year, 14-3, 2.16, 98/18 K/BB, 0.90 WHIP, .214 OppBA. On top of all that, his story is the best. 10th rounder made good, jumping from Low-A to AA and still performing well.


It's more about how good Edwards was this year. We're talking a guy who struck out 1/3 of the batters he faced, allowed 8 XBHs - 7 of them doubles, allowed a sub-.500 OPS including a sub-.300 OBP and sub-.150 BAA....These are some dominant numbers. That he happened to already be the best pitching prospect is coincidence, I was on the fence about him until this performance.

You'll get no argument from me that Edwards isn't a very good pitching prospect. His numbers speak for themselves. In fact I wrote a post earlier this year comparing his OppBA, HR rate and K% to the minor league numbers of current successful major leaguers. Those three stats are keys for me when evaluating a pitcher.

Walk rate is as well, of course, and his walks this year were concerning. Going back over his career, he's never struggled with walks like this before which gives me hope that it won't plague him in the future for too long. But it seemed to come on when he returned from his DL stint with a shoulder injury late in 2014, and he's yet to have an extended period of time where he hasn't walked hitters at a pretty decent clip.

There is a small sample of his last 8 appearances where he was more like his pre-injury self. Since July 27th, 10.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R (unearned), 4 BB, 13 Ks. Hopefully, he can carry this type of performance forward.

But, again, this discussion is about the pitcher with the best minor league season. IP play a big roll in that distinction. Carl threw 55.1 innings. Ryan Williams - 141.2. That sort of knocks Edwards out of the race right there. Ryan isn't half the prospect Carl is, but that's not the criteria for this award.
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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby Duke Silver » Tue Sep 08, 2015 1:56 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:Horrible year? Not even kinda sorta, but I'm down to agree to disagree. It's whatever because guys like Williams and Markey often win these kind of org awards, but this was not a horrible year for Edwards.


I don't think he was horrible. I just think it was a horrible year for him, being that he entered the year in most people's Top 100. I guess, in the sense that he stayed healthy after dealing with injury last year, I shouldn't say horrible. Because it would have been worse if he just didn't pitch. But, a Top 100 prospect being moved to the pen and then walking around 18% of hitters he faced is not a good thing.

And, yeah, guys like Williams and Markey often win these org awards because they have better seasons than prospects that are ranked higher than them. I'm not saying Markey is better than Edwards, just that he had a better year.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby Duke Silver » Tue Sep 08, 2015 2:05 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
CubsWin wrote:Minor League Pitcher of the Year is very different from the organization's best pitching prospect. It's the prospect who had the best season. And that clearly goes to Ryan Williams. On the year, 14-3, 2.16, 98/18 K/BB, 0.90 WHIP, .214 OppBA. On top of all that, his story is the best. 10th rounder made good, jumping from Low-A to AA and still performing well.


It's more about how good Edwards was this year. We're talking a guy who struck out 1/3 of the batters he faced, allowed 8 XBHs - 7 of them doubles, allowed a sub-.500 OPS including a sub-.300 OBP and sub-.150 BAA....These are some dominant numbers. That he happened to already be the best pitching prospect is coincidence, I was on the fence about him until this performance.


How were you on the fence about Edwards until this performance? He's literally always struck out a ton of guys, limited extra-base hits, and been, generally, unhittable. He's done this year what he's always done, in that regard. Except, now, he is walking guys at a rate that would make Carlos Marmol blush. And, he's not even starting anymore.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby Little Slide Rooter » Tue Sep 08, 2015 8:55 am

Ryan Williams: full season of consistant good numbers.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby mul21 » Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:21 am

Slide Castro Slide wrote:Ryan Williams: full season of consistant good numbers.


There is no 'a' in the word consistent. But you are, in fact, very consistent.........ly bad at spelling it.
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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Sep 08, 2015 11:59 am

Duke Silver wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
CubsWin wrote:Minor League Pitcher of the Year is very different from the organization's best pitching prospect. It's the prospect who had the best season. And that clearly goes to Ryan Williams. On the year, 14-3, 2.16, 98/18 K/BB, 0.90 WHIP, .214 OppBA. On top of all that, his story is the best. 10th rounder made good, jumping from Low-A to AA and still performing well.


It's more about how good Edwards was this year. We're talking a guy who struck out 1/3 of the batters he faced, allowed 8 XBHs - 7 of them doubles, allowed a sub-.500 OPS including a sub-.300 OBP and sub-.150 BAA....These are some dominant numbers. That he happened to already be the best pitching prospect is coincidence, I was on the fence about him until this performance.


How were you on the fence about Edwards until this performance? He's literally always struck out a ton of guys, limited extra-base hits, and been, generally, unhittable. He's done this year what he's always done, in that regard. Except, now, he is walking guys at a rate that would make Carlos Marmol blush. And, he's not even starting anymore.


The starter/reliever thing is irrelevant to me. Williams definitely gets points for his innings total, and he's a reasonable/sensible choice for what is, often enough, a pretty weak indicator of an award.

This is how I see Edwards' season in the minors:

- BAA below .150
- OBPA below .300
- SLG below .200 (!!!!!)
- ~33% K rate
- ~16% K-BB%
- 8 XBHs allowed, 7 of them doubles

No other pitcher in the system has numbers like that, let alone in a new role at AA/AAA. To me, he's the only arm in the minors who performed his way into a position to make an impact on the Cubs. That's the goal of a minor league player in the end.

Samardzija was a really good reliever in 2011 with a K-BB below 10%, Tyler Clippard had some control issues early on, Betances, Andrew Miller, Billy Koch...My guess is that the starter to reliever transition isn't super smooth, but if that guy can make guys miss and induce weak contact he's going to be alright. Marmol himself was an excellent reliever for years, even if a little dramatic.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby Gilby » Tue Sep 08, 2015 8:41 pm

Schlitter was pretty dominant out of the pen.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby CubsWin » Thu Sep 10, 2015 2:50 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:The starter/reliever thing is irrelevant to me. Williams definitely gets points for his innings total, and he's a reasonable/sensible choice for what is, often enough, a pretty weak indicator of an award.

This is how I see Edwards' season in the minors:

- BAA below .150
- OBPA below .300
- SLG below .200 (!!!!!)
- ~33% K rate
- ~16% K-BB%
- 8 XBHs allowed, 7 of them doubles

No other pitcher in the system has numbers like that, let alone in a new role at AA/AAA. To me, he's the only arm in the minors who performed his way into a position to make an impact on the Cubs. That's the goal of a minor league player in the end.

If you want to ignore the impact of innings pitched, go right ahead. If you want to ignore the history of what this award typical has meant and create your own definition, go right ahead.

Once again, the award goes to the pitcher with the best season. Not the best pitcher. Wait, lots of people have said that a lot already. Never mind. Carry on...
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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Sep 10, 2015 7:58 am

CubsWin wrote:If you want to ignore the impact of innings pitched, go right ahead. If you want to ignore the history of what this award typical has meant and create your own definition, go right ahead.

Once again, the award goes to the pitcher with the best season. Not the best pitcher. Wait, lots of people have said that a lot already. Never mind. Carry on...


Tim wrote:The criteria can be anything you want, just explain your answer.


If you want to ignore the impact of having a pitcher hold hitters to a sub-.300 SLG and .500 OPS while K'ing 1/3 of them because he's not a starter, feel free.

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Re: Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Postby CubsWin » Fri Sep 11, 2015 3:27 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
CubsWin wrote:If you want to ignore the impact of innings pitched, go right ahead. If you want to ignore the history of what this award typical has meant and create your own definition, go right ahead.

Once again, the award goes to the pitcher with the best season. Not the best pitcher. Wait, lots of people have said that a lot already. Never mind. Carry on...


Tim wrote:The criteria can be anything you want, just explain your answer.


If you want to ignore the impact of having a pitcher hold hitters to a sub-.300 SLG and .500 OPS while K'ing 1/3 of them because he's not a starter, feel free.

I'm not ignoring them. I acknowledged them strongly in my first post to you, saying you won't get an argument from me on whether or not Edwards is a very good pitching prospect. I agree he's the best pitching prospect the Cubs currently have. Underwood and Cease are gaining on him but not there yet.

It seems though, given the award typically goes to the pitcher with the best season (not the best pitching prospect), you are ignoring the history of the award and the importance of innings pitched in your argument. If you want to change the context of the award to argue for your guy, go right ahead. I'm fine with that.
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