2016 NSBB Cubs Top 50 Prospect Discussion

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Tim
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Re: 2016 NSBB Cubs Top 50 Prospect Discussion

Postby Tim » Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:49 am

I split the topic off from the thread that was two years old and fixed the sticky threads in the forum.

As for my top 10...it changes every single time I look at it.
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craig
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Re: 2014 NSBB Cubs Top 50 Prospects

Postby craig » Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:18 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:Torres is no Profar, who showed more power, patience, speed, and better plate discipline at the same age.

True. Age 18, A-ball:
Torres: .722 OPS, Profar .883
K/HR ratio: Torres 38:1 Profar: 5:1 (115/3, versus 63:12)
XBH: Torres 32, Profar 57
K/BB: Torres 3:1, Profar 1:1.

Torres is an excellent prospect, but looking at what Profar did at same age reminds why Profar was such a buzz back then. I guess I'd be more excited about Torres if either it was widely projected that he'd have pretty good power, or if he profiled as an excellent contact guy. Hopefully the contact will grow steadily. But early on, his K-rate has been a red flag, particularly for a modest power guy. I never really like to see 38:1 K/HR ratios. For him to tighten that up quite a bit next year will obviously be one of the things I watch for.

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Re: 2016 NSBB Cubs Top 50 Prospect Discussion

Postby davell » Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:24 am

In no way do I put Torres in the same class of prospect as Profar was, but I'm not concerned about an 18 year olds 21% K rate in full season ball either.
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Re: 2014 NSBB Cubs Top 50 Prospects

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:10 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:Torres is no Profar, who showed more power, patience, speed, and better plate discipline at the same age.


Okay, not the greatest comparison, admittedly, but I was just more focusing on the fact that Profar wasn't a guy who had plus tools and was viewed more as a guy with good, across the board tools, as is Torres. There is still some expectation that Torres will grow into some power.

Edit: Not to drag this side discussion to far, but I do feel like I should clarify why I made the comparison. From a production standpoint, Torres does not, in any way, match up to what Profar did in Hickory in 2011 (Hickory is a fantastic hitter's park ... but Kane County played as a hitter's park in 2014 and I'm guessing the numbers haven't dramatically changed, although Kane County played as a pitcher's park before then). What made Profar so unique was his readiness and polish for a guy who really didn't have any plus tools. That's the comparison point I was making - Profar was viewed as a guy with across the board average tools, maybe above average, that played better because he was just more polished. Now, it's fair to say that Profar probably had a couple tools closer to plus than Gleyber does, but I wanted to give some clarity as to why I made said comparison.

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Re: 2016 NSBB Cubs Top 50 Prospect Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:25 am

Pivoting a bit to a separate name, but I'm somewhat curious how Frandy de la Rosa performs in Kane County next year (I expect he starts there). He's not a shortstop, and the strikeouts are still too high, but it was an interesting start for a young kid. He did hit better in the 2nd half (or post-ASB), albeit SSS. Sure feels like in another year, or with another organization, de la Rosa might be getting some more discussion.

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Re: 2016 NSBB Cubs Top 50 Prospect Discussion

Postby David » Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:32 am

toonsterwu wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:Torres is no Profar, who showed more power, patience, speed, and better plate discipline at the same age.


Okay, not the greatest comparison, admittedly, but I was just more focusing on the fact that Profar wasn't a guy who had plus tools and was viewed more as a guy with good, across the board tools, as is Torres. There is still some expectation that Torres will grow into some power.

Edit: Not to drag this side discussion to far, but I do feel like I should clarify why I made the comparison. From a production standpoint, Torres does not, in any way, match up to what Profar did in Hickory in 2011 (Hickory is a fantastic hitter's park ... but Kane County played as a hitter's park in 2014 and I'm guessing the numbers haven't dramatically changed, although Kane County played as a pitcher's park before then). What made Profar so unique was his readiness and polish for a guy who really didn't have any plus tools. That's the comparison point I was making - Profar was viewed as a guy with across the board average tools, maybe above average, that played better because he was just more polished. Now, it's fair to say that Profar probably had a couple tools closer to plus than Gleyber does, but I wanted to give some clarity as to why I made said comparison.



toonsterwu wrote:Pivoting a bit to a separate name, but I'm somewhat curious how Frandy de la Rosa performs in Kane County next year (I expect he starts there). He's not a shortstop, and the strikeouts are still too high, but it was an interesting start for a young kid. He did hit better in the 2nd half (or post-ASB), albeit SSS. Sure feels like in another year, or with another organization, de la Rosa might be getting some more discussion.


Just to clarify, Gleyber never played at KC and Frandy won't be. The Cubs A ball affiliate is South Bend now.
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Re: 2016 NSBB Cubs Top 50 Prospect Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:49 am

yeah, brain cramp there on my part when looking at the park factors. South Bend seems to limit power to some extent, based on a quick scan of three year park factors.

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Re: 2016 NSBB Cubs Top 50 Prospect Discussion

Postby Tryptamine » Wed Nov 04, 2015 5:30 am

So much harder than it was a year ago, but here we go.

1)Gleyber:Above average tools across the board except for power and even that may end at a decent 15 per year. He has been pushed very hard so I'm not going to worry too much about a declining BB%. Not an immense ceiling, but a safe bet to be a regular as far as 19 year olds go.

2)Contreras:His explosion couldn't have come at a better time. Vastly improved K rate, climbing BB% and supposed 1.85 to 1.90 pop times. The only guy in the system I have no interest in moving and the Cubs opening day starting catcher in 2017.

3)Jiminez:Nice bounce back after a disappoint 2014. He had a surprisingly low 17.2K% despite prodigious power. For me he unquestionably holds the highest ceiling of all the position players.

4)McKinney:Great plate discipline and good contact skills. Likely relegated to a corner outfield position, his current 10-15HR pop needs to increase for him to be truly exciting. As is, I could see him becoming a David Dejesus type.

5)Happ:I'm going to try and no panic about the bad K rates at lower levels and focus on the better than advertised, power and speed. To go along with a nice BB%. I could see his ceiling as a 20/20 guy which would be a steal if he can stick at 2B or CF.

6)Almora: I'm buying on his improved BB% and power to go with his already elite contact skills. His 2nd half .301/.370/.464 line at AA was a resounding success for a player who will still be 21 when the 2016 season begins.

7)Underwood: Two potential plus pitches with a third that should be at least above average if he can locate it. 2016 will be big for him, because he needs to start showing he can miss some bats. 5.89K/9 isn't going to cut it. Still, the ceiling is substantial

8)Edwards: I'd like to see him spend the entirety of 2016 in a final effort to see if he has any hope of sticking as a starter. The stuff is filthy and his ability to not give up hard contact is otherworldly. Even if he doesn't stick, he's a closer in the making.

9)Cease: Supposedly touched 97-99 in just about all his starts coming off TJS. The control was a bit erratic but that was too be expected. Probably the highest ceiling for a pitcher in the sytem

10)Eddy: Not sure who to believe. One person talks about him like he's just another guy while another talks about him like he's a borderline top 50 talent in the minors.

11)Zagunis:Between the amazing plate discipline, strong arm, moderate power and speed, Zagunis should be able to find a niche as a 4th OFer. If the defense is good enough, I could even see 2nd team starter.

12)Pierce: Already 24, this is the year he has to show if he's going to be a starter going forward or if he's going to be relegated to the pen. The stuff is too good for the poor K rate 6.82K/9. If he does go to the pen I think he can be a strong set up man.

13)Steele: If we're talking about what is as opposed to what might be in the future, Steele has been well ahead of Cease and Sands. He doesn't have Dylan's upside, but he still has middle of the rotation stuff.

14)Candelario: Big bounce back year after nearly falling into the failed prospect abyss. It all depends on his ability to stick at 3B. Another year of his 2015 numbers with solid defense reviews and I'd have him safely in the top 10, but if he ends up at 1B I'm not sure I have him in my top 25.

15)Williams: By all reports the stuff is just so so and yet the guys finshes the season in AA after having not thrown above Short A ball before 2015. He may end up being the cheap answer to replace Hendricks once Hendricks gets to FA.

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Re: 2016 NSBB Cubs Top 50 Prospect Discussion

Postby craig » Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:14 pm

Thanks, Tryptamine, nice writeup.

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Re: 2016 NSBB Cubs Top 50 Prospect Discussion

Postby Bilbo161 » Wed Nov 11, 2015 12:31 pm

Tryptamine wrote:So much harder than it was a year ago, but here we go.

1)Gleyber:Above average tools across the board except for power and even that may end at a decent 15 per year. He has been pushed very hard so I'm not going to worry too much about a declining BB%. Not an immense ceiling, but a safe bet to be a regular as far as 19 year olds go.

2)Contreras:His explosion couldn't have come at a better time. Vastly improved K rate, climbing BB% and supposed 1.85 to 1.90 pop times. The only guy in the system I have no interest in moving and the Cubs opening day starting catcher in 2017.

3)Jiminez:Nice bounce back after a disappoint 2014. He had a surprisingly low 17.2K% despite prodigious power. For me he unquestionably holds the highest ceiling of all the position players.

4)McKinney:Great plate discipline and good contact skills. Likely relegated to a corner outfield position, his current 10-15HR pop needs to increase for him to be truly exciting. As is, I could see him becoming a David Dejesus type.

5)Happ:I'm going to try and no panic about the bad K rates at lower levels and focus on the better than advertised, power and speed. To go along with a nice BB%. I could see his ceiling as a 20/20 guy which would be a steal if he can stick at 2B or CF.

6)Almora: I'm buying on his improved BB% and power to go with his already elite contact skills. His 2nd half .301/.370/.464 line at AA was a resounding success for a player who will still be 21 when the 2016 season begins.

7)Underwood: Two potential plus pitches with a third that should be at least above average if he can locate it. 2016 will be big for him, because he needs to start showing he can miss some bats. 5.89K/9 isn't going to cut it. Still, the ceiling is substantial

8)Edwards: I'd like to see him spend the entirety of 2016 in a final effort to see if he has any hope of sticking as a starter. The stuff is filthy and his ability to not give up hard contact is otherworldly. Even if he doesn't stick, he's a closer in the making.

9)Cease: Supposedly touched 97-99 in just about all his starts coming off TJS. The control was a bit erratic but that was too be expected. Probably the highest ceiling for a pitcher in the sytem

10)Eddy: Not sure who to believe. One person talks about him like he's just another guy while another talks about him like he's a borderline top 50 talent in the minors.

11)Zagunis:Between the amazing plate discipline, strong arm, moderate power and speed, Zagunis should be able to find a niche as a 4th OFer. If the defense is good enough, I could even see 2nd team starter.

12)Pierce: Already 24, this is the year he has to show if he's going to be a starter going forward or if he's going to be relegated to the pen. The stuff is too good for the poor K rate 6.82K/9. If he does go to the pen I think he can be a strong set up man.

13)Steele: If we're talking about what is as opposed to what might be in the future, Steele has been well ahead of Cease and Sands. He doesn't have Dylan's upside, but he still has middle of the rotation stuff.

14)Candelario: Big bounce back year after nearly falling into the failed prospect abyss. It all depends on his ability to stick at 3B. Another year of his 2015 numbers with solid defense reviews and I'd have him safely in the top 10, but if he ends up at 1B I'm not sure I have him in my top 25.

15)Williams: By all reports the stuff is just so so and yet the guys finshes the season in AA after having not thrown above Short A ball before 2015. He may end up being the cheap answer to replace Hendricks once Hendricks gets to FA.


I like your list. I think the only thing worth changing is I would pop Almora up to number 3 or 4 and move the rest down one spot. I agree with your take on Almora's second half and would be really excited if he could continue that improvement in plate discipline. If he does he may be able to man the leadoff position later in the year or in 2017. For now, his D in CF is enough to put him above Mckinney for me anyway.


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