Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Can Heyward handle CF?

Yes
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YES
2
2%
YEEEEESSSSSS ffs
25
26%
 
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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:13 pm

Cable will be dead by then. Cubs Network will be the premier team-run streaming service and make 800 gajillion dollars.

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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby David » Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Cable will be dead by then. Cubs Network will be the premier team-run streaming service and make 800 gajillion dollars.


considering what stuff like netflix and hbo now cost, I'm probably on the high end of this but I'd pay $20-25 a month if I had to.

it'd be interesting to see what the sweet spot would be for the highest they could charge while not sacrificing profit through volume/subscribership
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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby David » Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:22 pm

The funniest thing to me about the people who critique this deal because so much of his value comes from these fancy newfangled sabermetrics (particularly fielding) when, if he were actually being paid what those sabermetrics say he's worth, he'd be getting like $40-50M a year.

People are [expletive] morons.
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Re: RE: Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby Andy » Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:57 pm

David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Cable will be dead by then. Cubs Network will be the premier team-run streaming service and make 800 gajillion dollars.


considering what stuff like netflix and hbo now cost, I'm probably on the high end of this but I'd pay $20-25 a month if I had to.

it'd be interesting to see what the sweet spot would be for the highest they could charge while not sacrificing profit through volume/subscribership

I pay for MLB TV now and would gladly redirect all of that ($11 roughly per month) to a Cubs streaming network. Probably go a little higher.

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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Dec 13, 2015 3:18 pm

David wrote:The funniest thing to me about the people who critique this deal because so much of his value comes from these fancy newfangled sabermetrics (particularly fielding) when, if he were actually being paid what those sabermetrics say he's worth, he'd be getting like $40-50M a year.

People are [expletive] morons.


Imagine it as a 3-year deal worth (whatever the frontloading works out to) with a five-year player option for another $100m if he gets hurt.

Does the real value of that get close to $40m?

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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Sun Dec 13, 2015 3:19 pm

For this team, I'd pay in excess of $50 a mn
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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby David » Sun Dec 13, 2015 3:26 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
David wrote:The funniest thing to me about the people who critique this deal because so much of his value comes from these fancy newfangled sabermetrics (particularly fielding) when, if he were actually being paid what those sabermetrics say he's worth, he'd be getting like $40-50M a year.

People are [expletive] morons.


Imagine it as a 3-year deal worth (whatever the frontloading works out to) with a five-year player option for another $100m if he gets hurt.

Does the real value of that get close to $40m?


yes, because my argument was clearly about what would happen in a worst case scenario rather than what should be expected.
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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Dec 13, 2015 3:50 pm

David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
David wrote:The funniest thing to me about the people who critique this deal because so much of his value comes from these fancy newfangled sabermetrics (particularly fielding) when, if he were actually being paid what those sabermetrics say he's worth, he'd be getting like $40-50M a year.

People are [expletive] morons.


Imagine it as a 3-year deal worth (whatever the frontloading works out to) with a five-year player option for another $100m if he gets hurt.

Does the real value of that get close to $40m?


yes, because my argument was clearly about what would happen in a worst case scenario rather than what should be expected.


You misunderstand. I'm asking about the expected value.

The difference between what he's getting those first three years and $120m ($40m a year) might be as little as $35m. Is the the existence of the opt-out worth $35m to him *on average* over what he would get without it? That's what I'm asking. In the worst-case scenario, it's worth around $100m. In most scenarios, it's worth $0. But what's the weighted average?

I don't think it gets there, but it gets a big chunk of the way there.

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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby mul21 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 4:34 pm

17 Seconds wrote:my favorite post from the heyward thread on gatewayredbirds, made right after he signed and they started pretending to like gordon more:

Who cares about age really? It's not like Gordon is 35, he's 31. We probably have 2-3 more highly productive years from him. Heyward started in the league really young, so that's not a real fair comparison. They're basically the exact same player lol. Just one is older. Over the next 3 season their will be minimal to no difference in their performance.


Yeah, the near immediate shift from "Oh god we want/need him so bad" to "Meh, he's not that great anyway and his production is easily replaced" was pretty amazing. A few voices of reason over there, but mostly just completely delusional crazies.
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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby Duke Silver » Sun Dec 13, 2015 4:50 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
David wrote:The funniest thing to me about the people who critique this deal because so much of his value comes from these fancy newfangled sabermetrics (particularly fielding) when, if he were actually being paid what those sabermetrics say he's worth, he'd be getting like $40-50M a year.

People are [expletive] morons.


Imagine it as a 3-year deal worth (whatever the frontloading works out to) with a five-year player option for another $100m if he gets hurt.

Does the real value of that get close to $40m?


yes, because my argument was clearly about what would happen in a worst case scenario rather than what should be expected.


You misunderstand. I'm asking about the expected value.

The difference between what he's getting those first three years and $120m ($40m a year) might be as little as $35m. Is the the existence of the opt-out worth $35m to him *on average* over what he would get without it? That's what I'm asking. In the worst-case scenario, it's worth around $100m. In most scenarios, it's worth $0. But what's the weighted average?

I don't think it gets there, but it gets a big chunk of the way there.


Yeah, I'm not following you on this line of thinking. Unless I am interpreting your post wrong, you seem to be suggesting that the value of the opt-out for Heyward is in having those five extra years after the opt-out date... just in case. It would make sense if he were only offered three-year deals. But, he was offered multiple, presumed 8-year deals. The value in the opt-out for him isn't in the $100 or so million left on the contract after the opt-out date. The value is in the possibility of making more than the $100 million he still had left on the contract, if he were to opt out and sign a new deal over those years.

Moreover, looking at it this way: Say he truly was worth five wins per year, and say a win is worth $8 million on the open market. And say he plays to that five-win mark in each of those three years. He would still be getting shorted that $35 million in those first three years. So even if he then opted out and signed at a fair rate, based on how many wins he was projected to be worth -- this after three more five-win seasons would probably look something like his ZiPS does right now (around 17 wins over those remaining five years). So, at $8 million per win, he's looking at a bump of around $35 million or so over the $100 he was still owed to him before opting out. So, say he opts out and signs at a fair rate the next time around: He's still getting shorted that original $35 million from outperforming the first three years of his contract.

He simply didn't get signed to a fair amount based on what sabermetrics says he is worth. And the opt-out can't make up for those $35 million he is missing out on over those first three years.

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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby David » Sun Dec 13, 2015 6:12 pm

i want a damn press conference time already, preferably for tomorrow
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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby Sammy's Boombox » Sun Dec 13, 2015 6:14 pm

I'm hoping for the day where I can get just MLB and just NFL on my TV and it be consistently high quality. The Internet is getting there, but it's not 100% reliable.
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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:28 pm

David wrote:The funniest thing to me about the people who critique this deal because so much of his value comes from these fancy newfangled sabermetrics (particularly fielding) when, if he were actually being paid what those sabermetrics say he's worth, he'd be getting like $40-50M a year.

People are [expletive] morons.


Yeah I've tried multiple times to communicate this, and it just does not stick. Heyward with no plus defense is a younger Justin Upton in RF or a slightly older Mookie Betts in CF, but tell someone that and the follow up becomes 'well Upton hits for power and that's what people pay for' or 'I don't think we can assume Heyward will be an average defender in CF'. The dissonance is REALLY strong.

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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby Duke Silver » Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:12 pm

Using this ZiPS projection:
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Let's assume he plays right field every single year, since that's where the whole dissonance is coming from. Let's say we take those ZiPS projections and take away all of his defensive runs saved. Let's also say that each win is worth exactly ten runs, for simplicity. And assume that ZiPS has the cost per win exactly right in these projections. So for the first year, take away: 1.2 wins * $6.5 per win = $7.8 to take away. For the second year, take away: $1.2 * 6.8... etc. After taking away all of his defensive runs saved, we have taken away $60.08 million from his $221.2 million cumulative expected value, according to ZiPs. So Jason Heyward is projected to be worth $161.12 million over those 8 years, if he were to merely be a league-average defensive right fielder for every single year of this deal.

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Re: RE: Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby Andy » Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:19 pm

Sammy's Boombox wrote:I'm hoping for the day where I can get just MLB and just NFL on my TV and it be consistently high quality. The Internet is getting there, but it's not 100% reliable.

It's getting closer but I'm not sure it's all that close yet. The MLB TV app on my smart TV is pretty solid but isn't always a good picture. It'd be nice if it wasn't a full minute and a half behind live action too.

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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:26 pm

Duke Silver wrote:Yeah, I'm not following you on this line of thinking. Unless I am interpreting your post wrong, you seem to be suggesting that the value of the opt-out for Heyward is in having those five extra years after the opt-out date... just in case. It would make sense if he were only offered three-year deals. But, he was offered multiple, presumed 8-year deals. The value in the opt-out for him isn't in the $100 or so million left on the contract after the opt-out date. The value is in the possibility of making more than the $100 million he still had left on the contract, if he were to opt out and sign a new deal over those years.

Moreover, looking at it this way: Say he truly was worth five wins per year, and say a win is worth $8 million on the open market. And say he plays to that five-win mark in each of those three years. He would still be getting shorted that $35 million in those first three years. So even if he then opted out and signed at a fair rate, based on how many wins he was projected to be worth -- this after three more five-win seasons would probably look something like his ZiPS does right now (around 17 wins over those remaining five years). So, at $8 million per win, he's looking at a bump of around $35 million or so over the $100 he was still owed to him before opting out. So, say he opts out and signs at a fair rate the next time around: He's still getting shorted that original $35 million from outperforming the first three years of his contract.

He simply didn't get signed to a fair amount based on what sabermetrics says he is worth. And the opt-out can't make up for those $35 million he is missing out on over those first three years.



OK, lemme try again to see if I'm making sense.

When we say "Sabermetrics says this player is worth $X per year," we don't mean forever, we mean in the very short term. Jason Heyward's 4.8 Steamer projection for next year might be worth $40m, but it drops as you get further into the muddy future. *If* players like Heyward took two-year deals, they'd get something like 2/$80.

But why don't they take those kinds of deals? Because there's an incentive on both sides to stretch the deal out. The player wants security by locking in earnings, and the people in charge of the team have an incentive to value the present because no GM's reputation was ever built or job ever saved by not screwing over his successor eight years down the road. We talk about this all the time, how you overpay in the later years of the deal to get value in the early years.

OK, still making sense? Good. So now we get into Heyward's contract specifically.

Glossing over the PA thresholds for the sake of simplicity, this is for all practical purposes a 3-year deal with a 5-year player option that is only going to be exercised if something awful has happened and he's no longer going to get big money as a free agent. So why isn't he getting $115m in those first three years like his projection and $/WAR would imply it's worth? Well, you can attribute that to "Lol the market isn't valuing these players right" if you wish, but I think it's far more likely that fans doing the evaluating are severely underestimating the value of these one-way insurance policies for players. Having your big payday locked in if you collapse but still having the freedom to get an even bigger payday is worth a lot of money. Fangraphs estimated that David Price's opt-out was worth $10m, and I thought that was a bit low, but it's a significantly less valuable opt-out than Heyward's is (older player, pitcher, more backloaded deal).

So we can absolutely state with certainty that the opt-out is worth *something*. The only question is, is it worth enough to make up for the difference between $115m and what he's making these three years? I think the answer is "maybe not, but it's in the ballpark." It's like we are paying the insurance premiums on a policy that pays out $100m if he can't warrant a nine-figure deal in three years.

If that still doesn't make sense, screw it, I'll just go back to fapping over Fangraphs' projections.

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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby Duke Silver » Sun Dec 13, 2015 10:22 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:Yeah, I'm not following you on this line of thinking. Unless I am interpreting your post wrong, you seem to be suggesting that the value of the opt-out for Heyward is in having those five extra years after the opt-out date... just in case. It would make sense if he were only offered three-year deals. But, he was offered multiple, presumed 8-year deals. The value in the opt-out for him isn't in the $100 or so million left on the contract after the opt-out date. The value is in the possibility of making more than the $100 million he still had left on the contract, if he were to opt out and sign a new deal over those years.

Moreover, looking at it this way: Say he truly was worth five wins per year, and say a win is worth $8 million on the open market. And say he plays to that five-win mark in each of those three years. He would still be getting shorted that $35 million in those first three years. So even if he then opted out and signed at a fair rate, based on how many wins he was projected to be worth -- this after three more five-win seasons would probably look something like his ZiPS does right now (around 17 wins over those remaining five years). So, at $8 million per win, he's looking at a bump of around $35 million or so over the $100 he was still owed to him before opting out. So, say he opts out and signs at a fair rate the next time around: He's still getting shorted that original $35 million from outperforming the first three years of his contract.

He simply didn't get signed to a fair amount based on what sabermetrics says he is worth. And the opt-out can't make up for those $35 million he is missing out on over those first three years.



OK, lemme try again to see if I'm making sense.

When we say "Sabermetrics says this player is worth $X per year," we don't mean forever, we mean in the very short term. Jason Heyward's 4.8 Steamer projection for next year might be worth $40m, but it drops as you get further into the muddy future. *If* players like Heyward took two-year deals, they'd get something like 2/$80.

But why don't they take those kinds of deals? Because there's an incentive on both sides to stretch the deal out. The player wants security by locking in earnings, and the people in charge of the team have an incentive to value the present because no GM's reputation was ever built or job ever saved by not screwing over his successor eight years down the road. We talk about this all the time, how you overpay in the later years of the deal to get value in the early years.

OK, still making sense? Good. So now we get into Heyward's contract specifically.

Glossing over the PA thresholds for the sake of simplicity, this is for all practical purposes a 3-year deal with a 5-year player option that is only going to be exercised if something awful has happened and he's no longer going to get big money as a free agent. So why isn't he getting $115m in those first three years like his projection and $/WAR would imply it's worth? Well, you can attribute that to "Lol the market isn't valuing these players right" if you wish, but I think it's far more likely that fans doing the evaluating are severely underestimating the value of these one-way insurance policies for players. Having your big payday locked in if you collapse but still having the freedom to get an even bigger payday is worth a lot of money. Fangraphs estimated that David Price's opt-out was worth $10m, and I thought that was a bit low, but it's a significantly less valuable opt-out than Heyward's is (older player, pitcher, more backloaded deal).

So we can absolutely state with certainty that the opt-out is worth *something*. The only question is, is it worth enough to make up for the difference between $115m and what he's making these three years? I think the answer is "maybe not, but it's in the ballpark." It's like we are paying the insurance premiums on a policy that pays out $100m if he can't warrant a nine-figure deal in three years.

If that still doesn't make sense, screw it, I'll just go back to fapping over Fangraphs' projections.


Yeah, I get what you are saying now. I've been thinking about this all wrong.

And the more I think about it, the more I am not sure what to think of the value of this opt-out. Just looking at that ZiPS projection, their $/win measures out pretty close to $8 million per win, over the course of the next 8 years, total. That seems to be about what the market is at right now. But, obviously $/win will be inflated as time goes on, which they have accounted for. So, a team pays for X amount of wins right now at an average of $8 per win, knowing they are overpaying in the final years, despite an inflated $/win. However, over the final five years on Heyward's deal, he is probably still getting underpaid. He's different from a Greinke or Price, in the sense that this deal never really looks bad on a per-year basis. He's lined up pretty closely each year to what he's actually worth. But, by front-loading it, it lessens the excess value early on. That's all clear.

But, now that I think about it... the value for Heyward isn't in recouping money over the first five years after the opt-out. The value is in being able to get those final years of a long deal where he is getting paid more than he is worth, a la Greinke. Under this contract, he can't really do that. But, if things go well, then he will certainly be looking at more than a five-year contract as a healthy 29-year-old. Under such a deal, he will most certainly be getting overpaid as a 34-to-37-year-old, under, say, another 8-year deal three years from now. If he didn't have the opt-out and had to play a full 8 years under this deal, he's probably not getting overpaid for those years under a deal signed as a 34-year-old.

So, yeah, you are right, front-loading the deal and having the opt out is a big deal for Heyward, whereas, it's not so much for a Price, who is older and more likely to be much worse by the time of his opt out.

[expletive], I don't know how to value it... But, either way, I think we got a nice deal. I think he wasn't paid properly for his defense. But, I also think the opt out is worth a lot for him. And it makes things much fairer all the way around.

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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby StylesClash » Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:11 am

Haven't had a chance to be online the past several days due to eye surgery. Have the dollar figures for the first four years of the contract been leaked yet? Also does signing two Type A free agents effect the eligibility to receive compensation when Fowler signs somewhere else?

Hopefully a right handed hitting Outfielder, that excels against lefty pitching, is signed. Heyward has struggled during his career against lefties. And Schwarber, during the fairly small sample size this past season, did too.

If not for the opt out clauses, which Heyward will likely use, I wouldn't like this deal. A player whose key attribute is defensive range, likely wont age well. But when that opt out is used hopefully Heyward will then become the problem of someone else. Then the saved money can be used for an actual impact bat: Bryce Harper :)

PS: what are the odds Montero is dealt (mainly for salary dumping purposes)? A veteran stopgap could then be plugged into the eighth or ninth spot.

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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby Tedward » Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:10 am

StylesClash wrote: Have the dollar figures for the first four years of the contract been leaked yet? Also does signing two Type A free agents effect the eligibility to receive compensation when Fowler signs somewhere else?


Heyward $ figures from 1st 3-4 yrs not out yet. I posted a tweet from Jim Callis earlier in the thread... He confirmed Cubs will lose their 1st two picks, 1st rounder, and the Fowler 1st round sandwich pick (assuming of course he signs elsewhere), resulting from Lackey & Heyward signings. Our 2nd rounder will be our 1st pick assuming we don't sign any more FA's that have been extended QO's.

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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby KingCubsFan » Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:08 am

Tedward wrote:
StylesClash wrote: Have the dollar figures for the first four years of the contract been leaked yet? Also does signing two Type A free agents effect the eligibility to receive compensation when Fowler signs somewhere else?


Heyward $ figures from 1st 3-4 yrs not out yet. I posted a tweet from Jim Callis earlier in the thread... He confirmed Cubs will lose their 1st two picks, 1st rounder, and the Fowler 1st round sandwich pick (assuming of course he signs elsewhere), resulting from Lackey & Heyward signings. Our 2nd rounder will be our 1st pick assuming we don't sign any more FA's that have been extended QO's.

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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby Exile on Waveland » Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:27 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
David wrote:The funniest thing to me about the people who critique this deal because so much of his value comes from these fancy newfangled sabermetrics (particularly fielding) when, if he were actually being paid what those sabermetrics say he's worth, he'd be getting like $40-50M a year.

People are [expletive] morons.


Yeah I've tried multiple times to communicate this, and it just does not stick. Heyward with no plus defense is a younger Justin Upton in RF or a slightly older Mookie Betts in CF, but tell someone that and the follow up becomes 'well Upton hits for power and that's what people pay for' or 'I don't think we can assume Heyward will be an average defender in CF'. The dissonance is REALLY strong.


I think the dissonance is even worse than that. Thinking back to the infancy of the sabermetrics v. scouting debate (or whatever you want to call the latter), the saber people were pretty dismissive of fielding and baserunning for the promotion of offense uber alles (this may or may not be fair, over all, but that was often how it was interpreted/understood by proponents). The scouting folks, almost unanimously, responded with "defense!"/"baserunning!"/"immeasurables!" ... and, eventually, the saber folks started trying to quantify defense and baserunning. And, in doing so, started valuing those skills in context with offense (a far more accurate view as more holistic, in my view).

... and now the scouting folks are complaining that saber folks are valuing defense and baserunning? :-k
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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:41 am

Just from antecdotal observation, it seems like the highest paid players are usually underpaid relative to "$8m = a win" types of reasoning, while middle and lower tier players have the biggest variance, some are underpaid, many are overpaid, etc.

Am I off base?
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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:52 am

David wrote:The funniest thing to me about the people who critique this deal because so much of his value comes from these fancy newfangled sabermetrics (particularly fielding) when, if he were actually being paid what those sabermetrics say he's worth, he'd be getting like $40-50M a year.

People are [expletive] morons.


Adrian Beltre was a FA steal three times over a decade as people questioned the combo of consensus elite defense and contextually or outright above average offense! Three times! Going back to 2004 or 2005!

It was fun watching people bash fielding metrics when it came to Heyward, but praise Fowler for a few minutes of possibly average defense in CF based on many of those same metrics.

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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby sneakypower » Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:54 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
David wrote:The funniest thing to me about the people who critique this deal because so much of his value comes from these fancy newfangled sabermetrics (particularly fielding) when, if he were actually being paid what those sabermetrics say he's worth, he'd be getting like $40-50M a year.

People are [expletive] morons.


Yeah I've tried multiple times to communicate this, and it just does not stick. Heyward with no plus defense is a younger Justin Upton in RF or a slightly older Mookie Betts in CF, but tell someone that and the follow up becomes 'well Upton hits for power and that's what people pay for' or 'I don't think we can assume Heyward will be an average defender in CF'. The dissonance is REALLY strong.

he seems like a really easy type of player to advocate, even to meatballs; just say he possesses every skill that helps a team win, which is true...and say something like "just watch him play and you'll understand"- they'll eat it up!

i dunno, that seems like a much easier point to make than trying to argue that Schwarber doesn't give away like a run per game in LF or whatever
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sneakypower
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Re: Jason Heyward to CUBS!!!

Postby sneakypower » Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:01 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:OK, lemme try again to see if I'm making sense.

When we say "Sabermetrics says this player is worth $X per year," we don't mean forever, we mean in the very short term. Jason Heyward's 4.8 Steamer projection for next year might be worth $40m, but it drops as you get further into the muddy future. *If* players like Heyward took two-year deals, they'd get something like 2/$80.

But why don't they take those kinds of deals? Because there's an incentive on both sides to stretch the deal out. The player wants security by locking in earnings, and the people in charge of the team have an incentive to value the present because no GM's reputation was ever built or job ever saved by not screwing over his successor eight years down the road. We talk about this all the time, how you overpay in the later years of the deal to get value in the early years.

OK, still making sense? Good. So now we get into Heyward's contract specifically.

Glossing over the PA thresholds for the sake of simplicity, this is for all practical purposes a 3-year deal with a 5-year player option that is only going to be exercised if something awful has happened and he's no longer going to get big money as a free agent. So why isn't he getting $115m in those first three years like his projection and $/WAR would imply it's worth? Well, you can attribute that to "Lol the market isn't valuing these players right" if you wish, but I think it's far more likely that fans doing the evaluating are severely underestimating the value of these one-way insurance policies for players. Having your big payday locked in if you collapse but still having the freedom to get an even bigger payday is worth a lot of money. Fangraphs estimated that David Price's opt-out was worth $10m, and I thought that was a bit low, but it's a significantly less valuable opt-out than Heyward's is (older player, pitcher, more backloaded deal).

So we can absolutely state with certainty that the opt-out is worth *something*. The only question is, is it worth enough to make up for the difference between $115m and what he's making these three years? I think the answer is "maybe not, but it's in the ballpark." It's like we are paying the insurance premiums on a policy that pays out $100m if he can't warrant a nine-figure deal in three years.

If that still doesn't make sense, screw it, I'll just go back to fapping over Fangraphs' projections.

fwiw i don't think teams would agree to 2/80, largely because of likely luxury tax implications
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