Today's wish list...

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Tim
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Today's wish list...

Postby Tim » Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:52 am

First, some assumptions.

1) the crowdsourced contract estimates at Fangraphs are correct (they're typically low for the big contracts)
2) there is $40M free cash currently available
3) reasonable backloading is allowed on FA contracts
4) The Marlins are being honest when they say Fernandez is NOT available

-----------------------------------

Needs:

1) SP
2) CF
3) SP Depth
4) Bullpen Depth
5) Farm Depth

------------------------------------

The Plan:

Even though SP need is #1, I'm going to fill CF first and then plan around it. Heyward at 8/$184M is my first move. I'm going to backload the deal a bit and also give him an opt-out after four years so he can hit the market again when he's 30. His 2016 salary hit will be $18M and it will ramp up like this: 18, 20, 22, 24, 25, 25, 25, 25.

Next I have to address SP.

With $22M left in the budget, Price, Greinke, Zimmerman and Cueto are effectively out of reach if I want to address 3-5 on my list. Looking at the next tier of pitchers gives: Shark, Lackey, Gallardo, Kazmir, Iwakuma, Leake & Chen. Lackey is a prick and I don't trust Gallardo. That leaves Shark, Kazmir, Iwakuma, Leake and Chen. At this point in their careers, the last four of those guys are similar in statistical profile. Average to below strikeout rates, below average walk rates and somewhat elevated HR rates for several. The arm in this group with clear upside above the rest is Shark. He's crowdsourced at 4/$16M per. I'll backload that a bit to 14/16/16/18.

Next is SP Depth.

We have a full rotation at this point with Arrieta/Lester/Shark/Hendricks/Hammel. I'm actually okay with leaving Hammel in the rotation, but I really want to add depth in case of injury. The best way to do that is by adding a player with options. Yaisel Sierra is my main target here. The main comp used for his contract is Raisel Iglesias. He got a seven year contract for $23M that paid a $5M bonus up front and then cheap salaries. I'll assume something similar here and say that he'll cost us $5M in 2016.

Bullpen Depth is up.

I really want Darren O'Day. But I only have $3M left in the budget. So I'm going to make a couple moves at this point. I'll trade Wood and Coghlan for the best return I can get for each guy. I don't expect to get much for Wood (I'll non-tender if I can't get anything), but I'm hoping for an upside arm for Cogs. That should free up an additional $10M. I'll use $6M (in 2016) to sign O'Day, giving him 6/7/8 on his deal. To fill in for Wood in the pen, I'll sign Blevins to a $1.5M deal. That gives me Rondon/O'Day/Strop/Grimm at the back end of the pen with Blevins there as my loogy and a litany of contenders to fill the rest.

Farm:

Hopefully I added depth here with the Cogs & Wood trades. I have $5.5 left in the budget and I'm going to use all that on Cubans. I'll also explore what value I can get in return for Castro. If I can add a potential impact arm near the majors, I'm going to make the trade. I'll also invest his $7M salary for 2016 in IFA and consider that as part of the return on the trade. Given the situation, I'll see if creative accounting can be used to borrow his 2017 $9M salary to use on IFA this year, as well. That would give me quite a few potential impact guys in return for Castro.

---------------------

So...there's the plan as of this morning. I'm sure it'll be different again tomorrow.
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Little Slide Rooter
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Little Slide Rooter » Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:26 am

Free agent RHP Andury Acevedo.

http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/11/19/chicago-cubs-sign-free-agent-righty-andury-acevedo/

Hey, how about that. Happy Chanauka to me. But in all seriousness, if Theo and Co. like him, I like him.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby davell » Thu Nov 19, 2015 6:44 pm

I keep going back to them somehow having the money to make a run on Moncada. I think the one time expense helps our matters somehow on these situations. At any rate, I think we'll spend 10-15 mill on the 23 and under Cubans(at least) without counting the overage and not have it count against the payroll. Whether there's been a built up slush fund or not, I have no idea. But I fully expect us to be extremely active on that front.

I think I kind of agree on the 40 mill range to work with too, just not sure whether it's a flat 140 number or if it's 130 and we deal off Wood and Coghlan to get there.
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby mdwilla » Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:40 pm

Heyward 18
Price 18
Shark 15

Backload all the deals you have the Cubs adding new revenue streams every year, TV deal, and Jackson $$$ coming off the books.
Give Heyward the opt out.

Trade Hammel/Wood/Coghlan for bullpen pieces or minor leaguers.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:54 pm

Price isn't signing anywhere for an $18 million salary next year.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby soccer10k » Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:17 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Price isn't signing anywhere for an $18 million salary next year.


Max Scherzer made $15M this year - $10M in salary and a $5M signing bonus.
Albert Pujols made $12M in 2012.
Shin-Soo Choo made $14M in 2014 and 2015 before bumping up to either $20M or $21M the next 5 years.
Josh Hamilton made $15M each of his first two years (first year had a $10M bonus as well), then went $23M, $30M, $30M
In Theo we trust.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:29 pm

I think you can create a little wiggle room with backloading, but that example is too extreme to be a good idea. Jackson is the only dead money that's getting freed up in the next few years, other guys are going to get raises, and while TV money might be coming eventually, we're talking about multiple guys making upwards of 40 million a year near the end of those deals.

Also I would not be fulfilling my role if I didn't reiterate that signing Heyward and Price is impossible. Signing multiple FA w/ > 20 million AAV is not going to happen.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Tryptamine » Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:35 pm

My ideal Scenario
I believe we were sitting at about 112M assuming all arbitration cases were tendered.
Non Tender Wood (-7M)
Samardzija 4/60 (+15M)
Trade Soler(2m)+Hammel(11M)+5M to Indians for Salazar+Justus Sheffield (-8M)
Heyward 10/200 (+20M)
O'Day 4/32(+8M)
Trade Candelario or Vogelbach for Will Smith(MIL)

That should put payroll at roughly 133M, leaving about 7M for whatever else(Vladmir Gutierrez/Yasiel Sierra).

1B:Rizzo
2B:Castro
SS:Russell
3B:Baez
RF:Bryant
CF:Heyward
LF:Schwarber
C:Montero

Bench:Ross,LaStella,Szczur,Coghlan,C.Villanueva
SP:Arrieta,Lester,Salazar,Samardzija,Hendricks
RP:Rondon,O'Day,Strop,Grimm,Smith,Richard,Ramirez

Offense improves slightly. Defense at (3B,RF and CF improves. BP and SP drastically improve.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby BigbadB » Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:25 am

Tryptamine wrote:My ideal Scenario
I believe we were sitting at about 112M assuming all arbitration cases were tendered.
Non Tender Wood (-7M)
Samardzija 4/60 (+15M)
Trade Soler(2m)+Hammel(11M)+5M to Indians for Salazar+Justus Sheffield (-8M)
Heyward 10/200 (+20M)
O'Day 4/32(+8M)
Trade Candelario or Vogelbach for Will Smith(MIL)

That should put payroll at roughly 133M, leaving about 7M for whatever else(Vladmir Gutierrez/Yasiel Sierra).

1B:Rizzo
2B:Castro
SS:Russell
3B:Baez
RF:Bryant
CF:Heyward
LF:Schwarber
C:Montero

Bench:Ross,LaStella,Szczur,Coghlan,C.Villanueva
SP:Arrieta,Lester,Salazar,Samardzija,Hendricks
RP:Rondon,O'Day,Strop,Grimm,Smith,Richard,Ramirez

Offense improves slightly. Defense at (3B,RF and CF improves. BP and SP drastically improve.


Heyward is going to be more expensive than $20m a year. He's the prize bat in free agency and there are lots of big market teams that will be making offers. Tim's numbers are probably a little closer to reality, and even those might be low.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:19 pm

- Sign a big dollar FA at SP(Price/Greinke) or CF(Heyward)
- At the other spot, sign an intermediate FA(Leake/Samardzija/Maeda or Span)
- Trade for Teheran, hopefully with Castro as the only MLB piece
- Throw a prospect to Oakland for Craig Gentry
- Add a ~3 million dollar reliever(Cahill, add Grilli to the Teheran deal, Mike Dunn, etc)

That gets you to roughly 145-148 million. Backloading the 2 FA deals slightly makes sure you fit even on the low end of the budgetary range, and also makes sure this plan isn't so fragile that you can't pay a higher than anticipated price for the FAs. If there's more wiggle room, use that plus the playoff revenue(if it's not going towards Maeda's posting fee) to try and get Sierra to be the 7th starter. The end result is something like:

(Heyward or Span)/Rizzo/Bryant/Schwarber/Soler/Montero/Baez/Russell

Arrieta/Lester/(Price/Greinke or Shark/Leake)/Teheran/Hendricks

Rondon/Strop/Grimm/(Grilli/Dunn/Cahill)/Hammel/free for all of Ramirez/Edwards/Cook/Patton/Acevedo/Rosscup/etc

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby SouthSideRyan » Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:49 pm

Gentry was DFAd today so he shouldn't cost much
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:57 pm

Yep. Bourjos is a fallback in a similar vein, but I put better odds on Gentry bouncing back to previous highs than Bourjos.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:57 pm

Gentry seems like an inexpensive early solution to what could end up being a nuisance later on. It would be nice to get in a competent RHH who can play any OF spot including CF so soon into the offseason. I say all this probably assuming too much on landing Heyward, but hopefully not.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby rawaction » Sat Nov 21, 2015 9:30 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:Gentry seems like an inexpensive early solution to what could end up being a nuisance later on. It would be nice to get in a competent RHH who can play any OF spot including CF so soon into the offseason. I say all this probably assuming too much on landing Heyward, but hopefully not.


Gentry was DFA'd, I think he could probably be had on a minor league contract, with roster invite at this point.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Tryptamine » Sat Nov 21, 2015 12:14 pm

rawaction wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:Gentry seems like an inexpensive early solution to what could end up being a nuisance later on. It would be nice to get in a competent RHH who can play any OF spot including CF so soon into the offseason. I say all this probably assuming too much on landing Heyward, but hopefully not.


Gentry was DFA'd, I think he could probably be had on a minor league contract, with roster invite at this point.


He'd definitely be superior to Szczur as a 5th OFer option. If he came real cheap I'd be game.

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David
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby David » Sat Nov 21, 2015 1:32 pm

yeah gimme gentry as a bench guy.
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby tspain » Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:02 pm

So give me your lineup then. Who is your leadoff hitter?

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:06 pm

tspain wrote:So give me your lineup then. Who is your leadoff hitter?


If that's at all directed towards my idea, the position players are listed in batting order. Heyward or Span would lead off, although I'm not overly worried about who hits in a particular spot.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby sneakypower » Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:15 pm

mdwilla wrote:Heyward 18
Price 18

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby tspain » Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:22 pm

I was actually asking Tim, but thanks for your answer. This really leaves us without a leadoff hitter.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby David » Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:30 pm

tspain wrote:I was actually asking Tim, but thanks for your answer. This really leaves us without a leadoff hitter.


which isn't an actual position, so that's ok since it leaves us with a hitter better than what you're describing as a leadoff hitter

you'd rather have a "leadoff hitter" in the lineup than jason heyward?
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:32 pm

tspain wrote:I was actually asking Tim, but thanks for your answer. This really leaves us without a leadoff hitter.


How? All the alternatives listed here are almost identical if not a little bit better offensively than Fowler.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Gilby » Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:38 pm

Leadoff hitters can't be 6'5'', 245 lbs. It's a rule.

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Tim
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Tim » Sat Nov 21, 2015 3:08 pm

tspain wrote:So give me your lineup then. Who is your leadoff hitter?

I'd put Heyward at leadoff.

Heyward
Bryant
Rizzo
Soler
Schwarber
Baez
Montero
Russell

Arrieta
Lester
Shark
Hendricks
Hammel

Rondon
O'Day
Strop
Grimm
Blevins
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby sneakypower » Sat Nov 21, 2015 5:39 pm

Heyward's led off the game 126 times in his career, with a .866 OPS

i'd be ok with that
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