Today's wish list...

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby biittner77 » Tue Nov 24, 2015 6:51 am

sneakypower wrote:Heyward's led off the game 126 times in his career, with a .866 OPS

i'd be ok with that


Especially considering that Maddon bats the pitcher 8th.
snoodmonger wrote:Schwarber dong was as swaggy a dong as you're gonna see, fellas. If he'd dropped the bat cleanly, it would've jumped up and flipped itself.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Tim » Tue Dec 01, 2015 11:58 am

Updating this for my whims as of today and rumors of only $30M being available...

----------------------------------

First, some assumptions.

1) the crowdsourced contract estimates at Fangraphs are correct (they're typically low for the big contracts)
2) there is $30M free cash currently available
3) reasonable backloading is allowed on FA contracts
4) The Marlins are being honest when they say Fernandez is NOT available

-----------------------------------

Needs:

1) SP
2) CF
3) SP Depth
4) Bullpen Depth
5) Farm Depth

------------------------------------

The Plan:

Even though SP need is #1, I'm going to fill CF first and then plan around it. Heyward at 8/$184M is my first move. I'm going to backload the deal a bit and also give him an opt-out after four years so he can hit the market again when he's 30. His 2016 salary hit will be $18M and it will ramp up like this: 18, 20, 22, 24, 25, 25, 25, 25.

Next I have to address SP.

With $12M left in the budget, pretty much any free agent pitcher I would like here is out of reach if the team wants to address the other needs. So...trading time. The only problem is that I don't want to trade our major league assets if I can avoid it. The only team talking about taking prospects in return for cheap and effective pitching is atlanta. So...I'm going to address SP and Bullpen Depth in one shot. I'm going to send Contreras, McKinney and Underwood to Atlanta for Shelby Miller and Jason Grilli. Miller is first year arb eligible and I'll estimate $2M there. Grilli is a steal at $3.5M. That still leaves me $6.5M in my budget.

Next is SP Depth.

We have a full rotation at this point with Arrieta/Lester/Shark/Hendricks/Hammel. I'm actually okay with leaving Hammel in the rotation, but I really want to add depth in case of injury. The best way to do that is by adding a player with options. Yaisel Sierra is my main target here. The main comp used for his contract is Raisel Iglesias. He got a seven year contract for $23M that paid a $5M bonus up front and then cheap salaries. I'll assume something similar here and say that he'll cost us $5M in 2016.

Farm:

At this point I only have $1.5M left in the budget. So I'm going to make a couple moves at this point. I'll trade Wood and Coghlan for the best return I can get for each guy. I don't expect to get much for Wood (I'll non-tender if I can't get anything), but I'm hoping for an upside arm for Cogs. That should free up an additional $10M. I now have $11.5 left in the budget and I'm going to use all that on Cubans.

I'll also explore what value I can get in return for Castro. If I can add a potential impact arm near the majors, I'm going to make the trade. But if I can't get someone that adds real depth for 2016 I will pass on the trade. If I do make the trade, I'll also invest his $7M salary for 2016 in IFA and consider that as part of the return on the trade. Given the situation, I'll see if creative accounting can be used to borrow his 2017 $9M salary to use on IFA this year, as well. That would give me quite a few potential impact guys in return for Castro.

---------------------

So, for my $30M available (plus $10M more by trading Wood & Cogs) I add:

Heyward
Miller
Grilli
Sierra
Prospects in return for Wood/Cogs
Cubans and other IFA

If the Castro trade works out, I also add:

AA/AAA MLB-ready arm ready to step into the rotation
another whole bunch of Cubans and other IFA

---------------------

So...there's the plan as of this morning. I'm sure it'll be different again tomorrow.
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Dec 01, 2015 12:14 pm

FYI, MLB Trade Rumors has pretty good arb estimates: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/p ... -2016.html

To your specific plan, they project Miller for 4.9 million.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Tim » Tue Dec 01, 2015 12:15 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:FYI, MLB Trade Rumors has pretty good arb estimates: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/p ... -2016.html

To your specific plan, they project Miller for 4.9 million.

I guess that's three million less for Cubans, then.
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby davell » Tue Dec 01, 2015 12:28 pm

The IFA money isn't likely affecting ML payroll. They made a serious run on Moncada and that was after our off season was over last year. There's got to be a separate fund they've got for it.
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Backtobanks » Tue Dec 01, 2015 12:55 pm

Tim wrote:Updating this for my whims as of today and rumors of only $30M being available...

----------------------------------

First, some assumptions.

1) the crowdsourced contract estimates at Fangraphs are correct (they're typically low for the big contracts)
2) there is $30M free cash currently available
3) reasonable backloading is allowed on FA contracts
4) The Marlins are being honest when they say Fernandez is NOT available

-----------------------------------

Needs:

1) SP
2) CF
3) SP Depth
4) Bullpen Depth
5) Farm Depth

------------------------------------

The Plan:

Even though SP need is #1, I'm going to fill CF first and then plan around it. Heyward at 8/$184M is my first move. I'm going to backload the deal a bit and also give him an opt-out after four years so he can hit the market again when he's 30. His 2016 salary hit will be $18M and it will ramp up like this: 18, 20, 22, 24, 25, 25, 25, 25.

Next I have to address SP.

With $12M left in the budget, pretty much any free agent pitcher I would like here is out of reach if the team wants to address the other needs. So...trading time. The only problem is that I don't want to trade our major league assets if I can avoid it. The only team talking about taking prospects in return for cheap and effective pitching is atlanta. So...I'm going to address SP and Bullpen Depth in one shot. I'm going to send Contreras, McKinney and Underwood to Atlanta for Shelby Miller and Jason Grilli. Miller is first year arb eligible and I'll estimate $2M there. Grilli is a steal at $3.5M. That still leaves me $6.5M in my budget.

Next is SP Depth.

We have a full rotation at this point with Arrieta/Lester/Shark/Hendricks/Hammel. I'm actually okay with leaving Hammel in the rotation, but I really want to add depth in case of injury. The best way to do that is by adding a player with options. Yaisel Sierra is my main target here. The main comp used for his contract is Raisel Iglesias. He got a seven year contract for $23M that paid a $5M bonus up front and then cheap salaries. I'll assume something similar here and say that he'll cost us $5M in 2016.

Farm:

At this point I only have $1.5M left in the budget. So I'm going to make a couple moves at this point. I'll trade Wood and Coghlan for the best return I can get for each guy. I don't expect to get much for Wood (I'll non-tender if I can't get anything), but I'm hoping for an upside arm for Cogs. That should free up an additional $10M. I now have $11.5 left in the budget and I'm going to use all that on Cubans.

I'll also explore what value I can get in return for Castro. If I can add a potential impact arm near the majors, I'm going to make the trade. But if I can't get someone that adds real depth for 2016 I will pass on the trade. If I do make the trade, I'll also invest his $7M salary for 2016 in IFA and consider that as part of the return on the trade. Given the situation, I'll see if creative accounting can be used to borrow his 2017 $9M salary to use on IFA this year, as well. That would give me quite a few potential impact guys in return for Castro.

---------------------

So, for my $30M available (plus $10M more by trading Wood & Cogs) I add:

Heyward
Miller
Grilli
Sierra
Prospects in return for Wood/Cogs
Cubans and other IFA

If the Castro trade works out, I also add:

AA/AAA MLB-ready arm ready to step into the rotation
another whole bunch of Cubans and other IFA

---------------------

So...there's the plan as of this morning. I'm sure it'll be different again tomorrow.


Your rotation includes Shark? I didn't see how you fit him into the budget.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby David » Tue Dec 01, 2015 12:56 pm

Believe he means Shelby
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Tim » Tue Dec 01, 2015 1:03 pm

Yeah,that was an editing fail.
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Tue Dec 01, 2015 2:42 pm

Let's say we sign Price and trade for Archer... Who pitches leadoff?

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby davell » Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:56 pm

I know he's not even available yet, but after the Lackey move.....Yasiel Sierra is a perfect fit. Forget a trade, just add him and hold onto Javy and Soler. Still would leave us money to address CF.
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Tryptamine » Sat Dec 05, 2015 1:27 pm

davell wrote:I know he's not even available yet, but after the Lackey move.....Yasiel Sierra is a perfect fit. Forget a trade, just add him and hold onto Javy and Soler. Still would leave us money to address CF.


If the return is Teheran or Miller I agree, but if we're talking Salazar or Carassco then I want the trade.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby David » Sat Dec 05, 2015 1:30 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
davell wrote:I know he's not even available yet, but after the Lackey move.....Yasiel Sierra is a perfect fit. Forget a trade, just add him and hold onto Javy and Soler. Still would leave us money to address CF.


If the return is Teheran or Miller I agree, but if we're talking Salazar or Carassco then I want the trade.


what about one of the rosses
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Tryptamine » Sat Dec 05, 2015 1:37 pm

David wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
davell wrote:I know he's not even available yet, but after the Lackey move.....Yasiel Sierra is a perfect fit. Forget a trade, just add him and hold onto Javy and Soler. Still would leave us money to address CF.


If the return is Teheran or Miller I agree, but if we're talking Salazar or Carassco then I want the trade.


what about one of the rosses


I like Tyson quite a lot, but I'm still not sure I want to give up Javy for only 2 years in return. If a deal with Starlin and prospects could get it done then by all means. As far as his brother, I don't think the Nationals are realistically shopping him even with Giolito likely ready in 2017 and Fedde+Lopez the year after that. This becomes especially truly if Strasburg is moved before he hits FA next year.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Tim » Tue Dec 08, 2015 12:42 pm

I'm not going to do the full thing again, but I'll do the shortcut version.

1) Heyward

Yeah, I'm pretty much good at that point. Every position is filled, the rotation is full of capable starters and the bullpen is pretty flush. But to add pitching depth, here's scenario a:

2a) Sign lots of cubans, including the mlb-ready or near mlb-ready arms. I prefer this scenario as I'd like to keep all the young hitters if I can. It both mitigates the risk with any single individual and also strengthens the bench considerably. I trust Joe to keep everyone active and happy.

2b) Trade Javy for Gausman. While I'd prefer to keep Javy, I'd be open to a trade for the right guy. Gausman might be that guy. It creates a logjam in the rotation and forces a move of Hammel or Hendricks to a trade/pen/Iowa. It seems to be a slightly inefficient use of resources to me, but Gausman has a pretty big upside to make it worthwhile. Oh yeah, also sign a lot of cubans. They just don't have to include the major league ready arms in this case.

2c) Trade Javy for Snell/McGee. This one lets us store Snell in Iowa for now to either come up to replace a starter in 2016 for injury/performance reasons or to take the place of Hammel in the 2017 rotation. It also gets us immediate value in the form of McGee for 2016. Oh yeah, also sign a lot of cubans. They just don't have to include the major league ready arms in this case.
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Tim » Tue Dec 08, 2015 9:11 pm

okay, so, yeah.

1) Heyward.

This is about the most obvious move ever. He's reportedly asking for 10 years, so there's plenty of room to ramp up the salary when we have the improved revenues. Please, oh please, let this happen.

2) Dump Wood for the best return possible.
3) If necessary, dump Montero for the best return possible.

There's your 2016 Heyward salary. If Miggy doesn't need to be dumped, all the better.

4) Add one more late inning reliever. They say they're stretching out Cahill and they're almost certainly dumping Wood. Unless they're really confident about Ramirez's health or Patton/Edwards being ready for prime time, it wouldn't hurt to have another arm at the end of the pen to go with Rondon/Strop/Grimm. Much as I hate to say it, if it really is possible to get Snell & McGee for Javy I might go for it at this point.

5) I'm torn at this point between dumping any remaining cash into Cubans or into reclamation pitchers. If Cliff Lee's medicals look okay, I'd be really tempted to sign him to a one year deal.
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby David » Tue Dec 08, 2015 9:25 pm

i'm going to use this thread for my pie in the sky lineup (which really only requires one move at this point)

Zobrist
Heyward
Rizzo
Bryant
Schwarber
Soler
Montero
P
Russell

and then Russell becomes Barry Larkin
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby rawaction » Fri Dec 11, 2015 6:48 pm

So, what's the next move? Obviously as it stands, the Cubs could go into battle with this team and nobody would bat an eye. But how good COULD the Cubs get? How good SHOULD they get try to get?

There are still out there for trades/signings the Cubs are still going after. Baez/Rays pitching, Soler/Indians pitching, still looking at CF options, outside chance still looking at Gordon.

But my questions is what SHOULD the Cubs do?

Option 1 example- trade Soler+ for Carrasco
Option 2 example- Trade Baez+ for Cobb/McGee
Option 3 example- Trade Hammel, Coghlan, Wood, prospects, and/or money for rotation, bullpen, bench depth

Opt 1-
Heyward, need CF, Schwarber, Russell, Bryant, Zobrist, Rizzo, Montero, Baez utility
Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Carrasco, Hendricks, Warren

Opt 2-
Soler, Heyward, Schwarber, Russell, Bryant, Zobrist, Rizzo, Montero
Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Hammel, Hendricks, Cobb, Warren
McGee, Rondon, Strop, Grimm, Brothers, Cahill, etc.

Opt 3-
Soler, Heyward, Schwarber, Russell, Bryant, Zobrist, Rizzo, Montero, Baez utility
Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Hammel, Hendricks, Warren, similar SP to Warren
Rondon, Strop, Grimm, Brothers, Cahill, RP similar to Brothers

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Dec 11, 2015 6:52 pm

3
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Tim » Fri Dec 11, 2015 9:46 pm

If we can both trade Hammel for prospects and still start Hammel, I'm for option 3.
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Tim » Fri Dec 11, 2015 9:48 pm

Seriously, though, unless the offer is overwhelming I'd prefer the Cubs just hang onto the young dongers.
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Dec 11, 2015 9:50 pm

Yeah I'm completely fine holding steady with what we have now and going into the year with it outside of IFA and minor league contracts/ST invites.
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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Tryptamine » Fri Dec 11, 2015 10:01 pm

2017 FA has no one of value other than Strasburg and Carlos Gomez so I'd prefer hang onto the youngsters and farm as trade bait should Theo need to make a move at the deadline or in winter 2017.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Fri Dec 11, 2015 10:16 pm

Of course it would suck to have an injury happen to Bryant or Russell but there'd be something really cool with just plugging Javy in there and let him do his thing. I mean, how rare is that? To have a young talent of Baez's level backing up two other young talents of Bryant and Russell's level?

Team Keep Javy.

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby Duke Silver » Fri Dec 11, 2015 10:22 pm

JennieGarthAlgar wrote:Of course it would suck to have an injury happen to Bryant or Russell but there'd be something really cool with just plugging Javy in there and let him do his thing. I mean, how rare is that? To have a young talent of Baez's level backing up two other young talents of Bryant and Russell's level?

Team Keep Javy.


Kinda like when Addison went down against the Cards in the playoffs and we were like, "Oh, what's that? We lost our stud, young shortstop? How about this other one goes 4-5 and hits a three-run dong to finish you guys off?"

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Re: Today's wish list...

Postby davell » Fri Dec 11, 2015 10:29 pm

If we're able to sustain this payroll(I think with the playoff revenue, attendance increase, extra TV deal money, and upped ticket prices)......I'm done. Don't mess with the depth.

If we have even a bit more room, just add pen help. Use anyone outside of Torres or Contreras for the best we can get.

Add as many Cubans as we possibly can(I'm confident we will) Sierra would be awesome and could take the place of the pen help even for now. Or added depth to the rotation, either way, he'd be my singular top target from here on out.

And honestly, I hope Theo and Jed take a break. They [expletive] deserve it.
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