Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Which is most likely to bust?

Russell
0
No votes
Bryant
0
No votes
Soler
2
6%
Schwarber
0
No votes
Baez
29
94%
 
Total votes: 31

sontensei
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Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby sontensei » Mon Aug 03, 2015 12:18 pm

Out of the super prospects who do you think is the most likely to bust?
When I say bust, it is in regards to becoming a top mlb'er.. these guys are already good enough to be everyday players for some team.

Russell
Bryant
Soler
Schwarber
Baez

My opinion is that Soler is the biggest risk to bust due to his legs. 2nd would be Baez..

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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Aug 03, 2015 12:21 pm

it is without a doubt baez
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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby OleMissCub » Mon Aug 03, 2015 12:32 pm

Baez definitely.

I think Schwarber will compete for a batting title one day.

I also think Billy Beane had it right when he told Theo after the Russell trade: "Congratulations, you just got Barry Larkin."
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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby sneakypower » Mon Aug 03, 2015 12:48 pm

if i had to handicap chances of having three-plus 3-WAR seasons in their pre-FA period:

Baez: 25%
Soler: 33%
Schwarber: 66%
Russell: 85%
Bryant: 90%
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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby apete6 » Mon Aug 03, 2015 12:50 pm

Will Baez or Soler put up more career WAR as a Cub than Castro?

I'd say yes to both.

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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Aug 03, 2015 12:58 pm

Yeah its a battle between Soler and Baez...have to go with Baez as others have. I am just very perplexed as to why Soler has hit with so little power this year. I know he's had bad luck with line drives this year but 5 HRs in 283 ABs is extremely perplexing. He's 23 so its not like he's a 20 year old with still developing power. We've seen the power. He should be hitting one to the moon at least once a week. Perhaps its just a really unlucky year, and perhaps the little amount of time he spent in the minors means that he still has room to grow, but its slightly concerning at this point.
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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby sontensei » Mon Aug 03, 2015 1:11 pm

UMFan83 wrote:Yeah its a battle between Soler and Baez...have to go with Baez as others have. I am just very perplexed as to why Soler has hit with so little power this year. I know he's had bad luck with line drives this year but 5 HRs in 283 ABs is extremely perplexing. He's 23 so its not like he's a 20 year old with still developing power. We've seen the power. He should be hitting one to the moon at least once a week. Perhaps its just a really unlucky year, and perhaps the little amount of time he spent in the minors means that he still has room to grow, but its slightly concerning at this point.


not even his power is concerning me as much as his legs, i saw 2 games this weekend up in milwaukee and when he runs it just looks strange..

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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby rawaction » Mon Aug 03, 2015 1:24 pm

All of these guys have seen the majors. Only 1 is not in the majors now. And the primary reason he's not is because he was so horribly bad when he was in the majors last. So, yeah, I'm going to go with that guy.

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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Aug 03, 2015 1:32 pm

Baez is the easy pick, but Soler this year has been hugely perplexing and a bit worrisome.
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David
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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby David » Mon Aug 03, 2015 1:32 pm

sneakypower wrote:if i had to handicap chances of having three-plus 3-WAR seasons in their pre-FA period:

Baez: 25%
Soler: 33%
Schwarber: 66%
Russell: 85%
Bryant: 90%


makes me happy to see you that high on bryant (and baez, really)

kinda depressing where we're at with georgie, though.
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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Aug 03, 2015 1:34 pm

3 out of the 5 making seems about right.
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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby Burt Macklin, FBI » Mon Aug 03, 2015 2:14 pm

When talking about busts from this group, the strikeout rates all around are concerning. It's just so hard to be a good player while striking out 30% of the time. I would put the bust potential like this:

1) Javy - Everyone is hopeful he's making some adjustments (myself included) but you can't discount last season in the majors either.
2) Soler - the strikeouts are up, the power is gone, his .375 BABIP suggests regression. If he can adjust his plate discipline, he'll be a good player. But that last sentence has been a eulogy to many, many players.
3) Schwarber - His strikeout rate is very reasonable for his power. His numbers are going to come down a bit as BABIP normalizes but they still should be very good. The question really comes down to where he can play defense.
4) Bryant - The K-rate is concerning, but he does enough well that I think his odds of busting are quite low. His K's and a potential move to LF may relatively limit his ceiling, however.
5) Russell - He's shown great adjustment so far in reducing his K's and increasing his walks every month. Plus, his defense is already excellent.

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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby sneakypower » Mon Aug 03, 2015 2:32 pm

David wrote:
sneakypower wrote:if i had to handicap chances of having three-plus 3-WAR seasons in their pre-FA period:

Baez: 25%
Soler: 33%
Schwarber: 66%
Russell: 85%
Bryant: 90%


makes me happy to see you that high on bryant (and baez, really)

kinda depressing where we're at with georgie, though.

we actually have a pretty good idea of what to expect from Soler, Russell, Bryant:
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i can see Soler being Castro-esque where he's seen to have never fulfilled his potential and being viewed as a disappointment but sustaining cheap, average production for a little while
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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Aug 03, 2015 2:48 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Baez is the easy pick, but Soler this year has been hugely perplexing and a bit worrisome.


All I want out of Soler is cheap RH power. I tried to offer up some knocks when he was a prospect - loved chasing sliders low and away, some length to his swing (so that K:BB of his in the minors was kinda bs, which shouldn't be such a surprise for other reasons such as ARL, SSS), stiff if you put him next to Bryant or Russell - speed and defense were going to be meh, maybe even a little full of himself - but understandably nobody was having it. It really doesn't matter much either since the Cubs have him at the right ages and for cheap, everyone will get to be a little right in the course of his contract. He's not the most likely to bust, definitely Baez, but I just never got into him. The Savior stuff didn't help, that got 10-15 minutes.

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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Aug 03, 2015 2:58 pm

Holy crap when did Soler get to negative fWAR.

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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby Burt Macklin, FBI » Mon Aug 03, 2015 3:05 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Holy crap when did Soler get to negative fWAR.


July wRC+ of 69 did the trick :(

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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby sneakypower » Mon Aug 03, 2015 3:08 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Holy crap when did Soler get to negative fWAR.

UZR update, most likely
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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby soccer10k » Mon Aug 03, 2015 9:26 pm

apete6 wrote:Will Baez or Soler put up more career WAR as a Cub than Castro?

I'd say yes to both.


Baez no, Soler yes.
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Re: Which of the "Future Stars" most likely to BUST?

Postby ARCubsFan » Mon Aug 03, 2015 9:33 pm

It's either Baez or Soler. I'd go Baez just because of the swing and miss in his game. Soler's defense is brutal but he seems like he's gonna be a guy that is gonna figure it out on offense and dominate.


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