cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

well?

less than 5% #wearedead
3
8%
5-10%
2
5%
10-20%
1
3%
20-30%
12
30%
30-40%
6
15%
40-50%
2
5%
over 50% the cubs are still the favorites i am insane
14
35%
 
Total votes: 40

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cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby treebird » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:11 am

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby David » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:14 am

ask me in 12 hours


(my answer was 20-30%)
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby weis21 » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:15 am

30-40 percent. They win tonight and set the stage for a magical comeback.

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:15 am

i am insane
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby CubInOK » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:19 am

I didn't die from the meth I injected in my forehead, so I'm now insane.

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:31 am

100% they win in 6.
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby jersey cubs fan » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:32 am

I had them sweeping in 4, so being down 0-2 doesn't really change the end result.
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby UMFan83 » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:35 am

If they win tonight, my feelings about this series improve dramatically. Right now I think around 30-40%
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:37 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:I had them sweeping in 4, so being down 0-2 doesn't really change the end result.

They didn't want Artieta and Lester to have to go on too long of a rest between series. Plus all three home game revenues and getting to see sad Mets fan in their home park game six just made the most sense to punt these first two. (Also a extra chance to hit up another Broadway show).
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby David » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:45 am

UMFan83 wrote:If they win tonight, my feelings about this series improve dramatically. Right now I think around 30-40%


yeah. i am a little deflated but i'll be back in full blown cubs hype mode if they win tonight. especially if the dong show returns to wrigley.
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:08 am

0%. Also Arrieta's arm falls off due to the innings he's logged this year. We spend the entire offseason going betting everything on a Heyward chase only for him to decide to take less money to go back to St. Louis, after which anyone else worth spending money on is already gone. Castro has yet another prolonged slump in the first half in 2016, Baez sucks as the starting 3b (Bryant in CF), we go -4 against pythagorean in the first half, and we limp to a 79-83 finish.

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:37 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:0%. Also Arrieta's arm falls off due to the innings he's logged this year. We spend the entire offseason going betting everything on a Heyward chase only for him to decide to take less money to go back to St. Louis, after which anyone else worth spending money on is already gone. Castro has yet another prolonged slump in the first half in 2016, Baez sucks as the starting 3b (Bryant in CF), we go -4 against pythagorean in the first half, and we limp to a 79-83 finish.

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby Derwood » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:46 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:0%. Also Arrieta's arm falls off due to the innings he's logged this year. We spend the entire offseason going betting everything on a Heyward chase only for him to decide to take less money to go back to St. Louis, after which anyone else worth spending money on is already gone. Castro has yet another prolonged slump in the first half in 2016, Baez sucks as the starting 3b (Bryant in CF), we go -4 against pythagorean in the first half, and we limp to a 79-83 finish.


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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby George Hayduke » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:17 pm

There are 15 possibilities remaining for the W/L outcomes of the rest of the NLCS. Five of them with the Cubs winning it, ten of them with the Mets winning it. So even if you thought each game was a total coin flip, the Cubs have a 33% chance of coming back. If you think the Cubs are actually the better team (I do) and also factor in that the Cubs have an extra home game in the remaining five (if you think HFA means something), I'd put the odds somewhere in the upper 30's, maybe 40% Not fantastic, but far from impossible. That said, tonight is pretty much must-win, or the odds drop to single digits. :beg:

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby sneakypower » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:19 pm

#wearedead :(
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby SouthSideRyan » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:24 pm

George Hayduke wrote:There are 15 possibilities remaining for the W/L outcomes of the rest of the NLCS. Five of them with the Cubs winning it, ten of them with the Mets winning it. So even if you thought each game was a total coin flip, the Cubs have a 33% chance of coming back. If you think the Cubs are actually the better team (I do) and also factor in that the Cubs have an extra home game in the remaining five (if you think HFA means something), I'd put the odds somewhere in the upper 30's, maybe 40% Not fantastic, but far from impossible. That said, tonight is pretty much must-win, or the odds drop to single digits. :beg:


That's unfortunately not how the calculation works. Think of it a team down 3-0 needing to win 4 in a row to win a series (0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5=0.0625=6.25%) whereas your calculation puts it at 1 potential outcome for the 0-3 team, and 4 for the 3-0 team 20%-80%

Our current coin flip chances are 15.625% which funnily nobody has selected. *I took 30-40
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby David » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:27 pm

on the other hand, fortunately, in such a small sample, the odds are pretty easily defied.
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby George Hayduke » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:30 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
George Hayduke wrote:There are 15 possibilities remaining for the W/L outcomes of the rest of the NLCS. Five of them with the Cubs winning it, ten of them with the Mets winning it. So even if you thought each game was a total coin flip, the Cubs have a 33% chance of coming back. If you think the Cubs are actually the better team (I do) and also factor in that the Cubs have an extra home game in the remaining five (if you think HFA means something), I'd put the odds somewhere in the upper 30's, maybe 40% Not fantastic, but far from impossible. That said, tonight is pretty much must-win, or the odds drop to single digits. :beg:


That's unfortunately not how the calculation works. Think of it a team down 3-0 needing to win 4 in a row to win a series (0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5=0.0625=6.25%) whereas your calculation puts it at 1 potential outcome for the 0-3 team, and 4 for the 3-0 team 20%-80%

Our current coin flip chances are 15.625% which funnily nobody has selected. *I took 30-40

Yeah, you're right, I sucked that up.

That is...far more depressing.

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby rocket » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:25 pm

sweep the 3 games at wrigley and then everything starts to go wrong
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:04 pm

rocket wrote:sweep the 3 games at wrigley and then everything starts to go wrong

Ooohhh, next poll idea; predict the reason the curse continues. We've had a black cat, fan interference, a botched DP... decades of organizational incompetence. Probably something with Castro (#13)
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby Liam Neeson » Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:10 pm

FATALISM THREAD 2.0

NICE, GLAD TO BE HERE

GIF IS RELEVANT

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby rocket » Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:13 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
rocket wrote:sweep the 3 games at wrigley and then everything starts to go wrong

Ooohhh, next poll idea; predict the reason the curse continues. We've had a black cat, fan interference, a botched DP... decades of organizational incompetence. Probably something with Castro (#13)


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Do it for Kent.

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:26 pm

Hm maybe lightning strikes the old scoreboard and kills everyone in the stadium. Except the Mets who decided to grab a drink at Murphys Bleachers during the rain delay.

That's game 5 obviously, which the Cubs win 75-2 after the game is called due to rain after 7. A Dan Vogelbach led team of minor league misfits puts on their best dongsmith impression and win game 6 but narrowly lose game 7 on a Daniel Murphy walk off to (insert Cubs minor league pitcher who we later learn is gay).
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby wvcbxl » Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:52 pm

Randomness favors the Cubs. 8-)
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby soccer10k » Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:16 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
George Hayduke wrote:There are 15 possibilities remaining for the W/L outcomes of the rest of the NLCS. Five of them with the Cubs winning it, ten of them with the Mets winning it. So even if you thought each game was a total coin flip, the Cubs have a 33% chance of coming back. If you think the Cubs are actually the better team (I do) and also factor in that the Cubs have an extra home game in the remaining five (if you think HFA means something), I'd put the odds somewhere in the upper 30's, maybe 40% Not fantastic, but far from impossible. That said, tonight is pretty much must-win, or the odds drop to single digits. :beg:


That's unfortunately not how the calculation works. Think of it a team down 3-0 needing to win 4 in a row to win a series (0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5=0.0625=6.25%) whereas your calculation puts it at 1 potential outcome for the 0-3 team, and 4 for the 3-0 team 20%-80%

Our current coin flip chances are 15.625% which funnily nobody has selected. *I took 30-40


Not that it would change which option but wouldn't the coin flip chances be 18.75%? A 6.25% of winning each of the next four plus four 3.125% chances of winning in 7 (Cubs losing one of Game 3, 4, 5 and 6 but winning the other four).
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