cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

on the other hand, fortunately, in such a small sample, the odds are pretty easily defied.

Thatsnothowthisworks.gif

[George Hayduke]

There are 15 possibilities remaining for the W/L outcomes of the rest of the NLCS. Five of them with the Cubs winning it, ten of them with the Mets winning it. So even if you thought each game was a total coin flip, the Cubs have a 33% chance of coming back. If you think the Cubs are actually the better team (I do) and also factor in that the Cubs have an extra home game in the remaining five (if you think HFA means something), I'd put the odds somewhere in the upper 30's, maybe 40% Not fantastic, but far from impossible. That said, tonight is pretty much must-win, or the odds drop to single digits.

That's unfortunately not how the calculation works. Think of it a team down 3-0 needing to win 4 in a row to win a series (0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5=0.0625=6.25%) whereas your calculation puts it at 1 potential outcome for the 0-3 team, and 4 for the 3-0 team 20%-80%

Our current coin flip chances are 15.625% which funnily nobody has selected. *I took 30-40

Not that it would change which option but wouldn't the coin flip chances be 18.75%? A 6.25% of winning each of the next four plus four 3.125% chances of winning in 7 (Cubs losing one of Game 3, 4, 5 and 6 but winning the other four).

Nah, SSR is right. Would be 5 winning scenarios divided by ALL possible five game scenarios (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2) = 32. 5 / 32 = 15.625

[sneakypower]

#wearedoubledead

[Careless]

So most of this board is simply delusional.

[Careless]

So most of this board is simply delusional.

[Banedon]

Timely opinion, thanks.

[jersey cubs fan]

Timely opinion, thanks.

The misery porn was already made; it would be a shame not to use it.