cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

well?

less than 5% #wearedead
3
8%
5-10%
2
5%
10-20%
1
3%
20-30%
12
30%
30-40%
6
15%
40-50%
2
5%
over 50% the cubs are still the favorites i am insane
14
35%
 
Total votes: 40

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:56 pm

David wrote:on the other hand, fortunately, in such a small sample, the odds are pretty easily defied.


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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby George Hayduke » Tue Oct 20, 2015 6:29 pm

soccer10k wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:
George Hayduke wrote:There are 15 possibilities remaining for the W/L outcomes of the rest of the NLCS. Five of them with the Cubs winning it, ten of them with the Mets winning it. So even if you thought each game was a total coin flip, the Cubs have a 33% chance of coming back. If you think the Cubs are actually the better team (I do) and also factor in that the Cubs have an extra home game in the remaining five (if you think HFA means something), I'd put the odds somewhere in the upper 30's, maybe 40% Not fantastic, but far from impossible. That said, tonight is pretty much must-win, or the odds drop to single digits. :beg:


That's unfortunately not how the calculation works. Think of it a team down 3-0 needing to win 4 in a row to win a series (0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5=0.0625=6.25%) whereas your calculation puts it at 1 potential outcome for the 0-3 team, and 4 for the 3-0 team 20%-80%

Our current coin flip chances are 15.625% which funnily nobody has selected. *I took 30-40


Not that it would change which option but wouldn't the coin flip chances be 18.75%? A 6.25% of winning each of the next four plus four 3.125% chances of winning in 7 (Cubs losing one of Game 3, 4, 5 and 6 but winning the other four).

Nah, SSR is right. Would be 5 winning scenarios divided by ALL possible five game scenarios (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2) = 32. 5 / 32 = 15.625

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby sneakypower » Wed Oct 21, 2015 11:44 am

#wearedoubledead
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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby Careless » Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:55 am

So most of this board is simply delusional.
We are doomed.

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby Careless » Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:55 am

So most of this board is simply delusional.
We are doomed.

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby Banedon » Thu Nov 05, 2015 7:43 am

Timely opinion, thanks.

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Re: cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:36 am

Banedon wrote:Timely opinion, thanks.

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