Exactly a month until the draft. Who are we gonna take???

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
CubColtPacer
Superstar
Posts: 13461
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 1:08 pm

Postby CubColtPacer » Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:37 pm

JeffH wrote:We are going to have a dominant, middle-of-the-order college hitter who plays a premium defensive position fall into our lap and we are going to blow it.

Only the Cubs.


And several other clubs if most of the mock drafts are to be believed.

User avatar
Mephistopheles
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 8726
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 11:29 pm
Contact:

Postby Mephistopheles » Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:41 pm

cuubs4life wrote:
Mephistopheles wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Cubs can do much better than Beau Mills at 3.


Cubs can do much better than Beau Mills, Josh Vitters, Jarrod Parker or Dudley Doolittle at 3, but unfortunately they won't. :x



they really cant do much better than parker or vitt at 3


Wieters..............
hes not "much" better

User avatar
TruffleShuffle
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 50813
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:47 am
Location: Perth, W.A.
Contact:

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:43 pm

JeffH wrote:We are going to have a dominant, middle-of-the-order college hitter who plays a premium defensive position fall into our lap and we are going to blow it.

Only the Cubs.


it makes me laugh how teams will balk spending a few million extra dollars in the draft, but then throw obscenely overpriced contracts at mediocre free agents.

CubColtPacer
Superstar
Posts: 13461
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 1:08 pm

Postby CubColtPacer » Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:47 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:
JeffH wrote:We are going to have a dominant, middle-of-the-order college hitter who plays a premium defensive position fall into our lap and we are going to blow it.

Only the Cubs.


it makes me laugh how teams will balk spending a few million extra dollars in the draft, but then throw obscenely overpriced contracts at mediocre free agents.


A lot of that is PR-signing free agents, even mediocre ones, can sell tickets.

User avatar
RynoRules
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 9840
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Free Cities

Postby RynoRules » Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:53 pm

I just saw keith law's mock on ESPN - he has us taking Vitters. Can someone help me understand what makes Wieters so much better? I ask b/c I know little about both.

User avatar
TruffleShuffle
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 50813
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:47 am
Location: Perth, W.A.
Contact:

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:55 pm

CubColtPacer wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:
JeffH wrote:We are going to have a dominant, middle-of-the-order college hitter who plays a premium defensive position fall into our lap and we are going to blow it.

Only the Cubs.


it makes me laugh how teams will balk spending a few million extra dollars in the draft, but then throw obscenely overpriced contracts at mediocre free agents.


A lot of that is PR-signing free agents, even mediocre ones, can sell tickets.


that must be why wrigley is selling out this year... jason marquis!

User avatar
CoolHandLuke
All-Star
Posts: 3872
Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2004 2:48 pm
Location: Niles

Postby CoolHandLuke » Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:07 pm

RynoRules wrote:I just saw keith law's mock on ESPN - he has us taking Vitters. Can someone help me understand what makes Wieters so much better? I ask b/c I know little about both.


Some people hate high schoolers for no good reason except that Ryan Harvey and Luis Montanez sucked.

Also, position scarcity. I want Wieters, but I wouldn't be too upset with Vitters. Although as far as high school hitters go, I think I would prefer Moustakas or Heyward.
Last edited by CoolHandLuke on Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
TruffleShuffle
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 50813
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:47 am
Location: Perth, W.A.
Contact:

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:18 pm

coolhandluke84 wrote:Some people hate high schoolers for no good reason except that Ryan Harvey and Luis Montanez sucked.


The Cubs have had a very poor track record when it comes to drafting high school hitters... but more importantly, the Cubs have a need at catcher, and also have a need for high-OBP players. Wieters is a polished college bat who fills both those needs. That's the bigger reason why I'd hate drafting Vitters or Moustakas.

User avatar
Mephistopheles
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 8726
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 11:29 pm
Contact:

Postby Mephistopheles » Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:51 pm

the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either

User avatar
TruffleShuffle
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 50813
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:47 am
Location: Perth, W.A.
Contact:

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:56 pm

Mephistopheles wrote:the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either


good point... have the Cubs spent many high draft picks on college hitters though? I think a lot more have been on high school bats.

User avatar
CoolHandLuke
All-Star
Posts: 3872
Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2004 2:48 pm
Location: Niles

Postby CoolHandLuke » Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:00 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:
coolhandluke84 wrote:Some people hate high schoolers for no good reason except that Ryan Harvey and Luis Montanez sucked.


The Cubs have had a very poor track record when it comes to drafting high school hitters... but more importantly, the Cubs have a need at catcher, and also have a need for high-OBP players. Wieters is a polished college bat who fills both those needs. That's the bigger reason why I'd hate drafting Vitters or Moustakas.


Oh I agree, I want Wieters, I am just not as negative on high schoolers as you are. High school hitters do sometimes pan out too, and I do like the fact that Wilken is doing the picking. If he wants Vitters, then I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt to the point where I will wait a couple years to see how he turns out.

User avatar
Rob
Superstar
Posts: 12817
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:33 am

Postby Rob » Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:04 pm

Mephistopheles wrote:the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either


Honestly, I think we could plug Wieters straight in as our backup catcher and he'd outperform Blanco. He's the one prospect outside of Price in this draft that I feel is about as close to no risk (read: exposing to the Cubs farm system) as they come. (No Casey Weathers talk... that would be a bigger overdraft at number 3 than Matt Bush was)

User avatar
Mephistopheles
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 8726
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 11:29 pm
Contact:

Postby Mephistopheles » Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:05 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:
Mephistopheles wrote:the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either


good point... have the Cubs spent many high draft picks on college hitters though? I think a lot more have been on high school bats.
how many teams do? most early college picks are always pitchers. the good bat talents sign as high schoolers.

User avatar
Rob
Superstar
Posts: 12817
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:33 am

Postby Rob » Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:08 pm

coolhandluke84 wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:
coolhandluke84 wrote:Some people hate high schoolers for no good reason except that Ryan Harvey and Luis Montanez sucked.


The Cubs have had a very poor track record when it comes to drafting high school hitters... but more importantly, the Cubs have a need at catcher, and also have a need for high-OBP players. Wieters is a polished college bat who fills both those needs. That's the bigger reason why I'd hate drafting Vitters or Moustakas.


Oh I agree, I want Wieters, I am just not as negative on high schoolers as you are. High school hitters do sometimes pan out too, and I do like the fact that Wilken is doing the picking. If he wants Vitters, then I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt to the point where I will wait a couple years to see how he turns out.


If memory serves, the last study I read said that high school hitters, college pitchers, and college hitters all enjoyed about the same average value over the course of the time the team controlled them. High school pitchers were much worse off, and flamed out at a much higher rate.

That, in a nutshell, is why I don't want Parker, or Porcello, or Bumgarner, or Aumont, or Smoker, or Harvey, or Beavan... unless of course one of them slips to us with our supplemental pick (not bloody likely)

CubColtPacer
Superstar
Posts: 13461
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 1:08 pm

Postby CubColtPacer » Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:17 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:
Mephistopheles wrote:the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either


good point... have the Cubs spent many high draft picks on college hitters though? I think a lot more have been on high school bats.


More real high picks have been high schoolers, but college position players have been drafted high as well

Top 10 round position players since 96

1996
2nd round-Quincy Carter-HS
5th round-Chad Myers-college
6th round-Doug Hall-college
9th round-Nate Manning-college

97
5th round-Jaisen Randolph-HS
6th-Matt Mauck-HS
8th-Ron Walker-college
9th-Gary Johnson-college
10th-Mike Amrhien-college

98
1st-Corey Patterson-HS
2nd-Dave Kelton-HS
2nd-Jeff Goldbach-HS
3rd-Robert Bass-HS
6th-Tony Shrager-college
10th-Nate Frese-college

99
2nd round-Mike Mallory-HS
3rd-Ryan Gripp-college
7th-Mike Dzurilla-college
9th-Chris Curry-college
10th-Jim Deschaine-college

00
1st-Luis Montanez-HS
2nd-Bobby Hill-HS
3rd-Nic Jackson-college
5th-Gary Banks-HS
7th-Ryan Jorgenson-college
10th-Blake Blesi-college

2001
3rd-Ryan Theriot-college
5th-Brendan Harris-college
8th-Warren Hanna-college
10th-Corey Slavick-college

2002
2nd-Brian Dopirak-HS
3rd-Matt Craig-college
4th-Alan Rick-HS
6th-Chris Walker-college
7th-Joey Mohahan-college
8th-Jason Fransz-college
9th-Adam Greenberg-college
10th-Keith Butler-college

03
1st-Ryan Harvey-HS
3rd-Jake Fox-college
4th-Tony Richie-college
7th-Kyle Boyer-college
9th-Drew Larson-college
10th-Casey McGehee-college

The Cubs have been terrible at developing any type of hitter-both HS and college. There have been more HS hitters taken in the first 5 rounds, and more college hitters taken overall in the top 10 rounds. They simply haven't done a good job of either.

User avatar
TruffleShuffle
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 50813
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:47 am
Location: Perth, W.A.
Contact:

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:28 pm

CubColtPacer wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:
Mephistopheles wrote:the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either


good point... have the Cubs spent many high draft picks on college hitters though? I think a lot more have been on high school bats.


More real high picks have been high schoolers, but college position players have been drafted high as well

Top 10 round position players since 96

1996
2nd round-Quincy Carter-HS
5th round-Chad Myers-college
6th round-Doug Hall-college
9th round-Nate Manning-college

97
5th round-Jaisen Randolph-HS
6th-Matt Mauck-HS
8th-Ron Walker-college
9th-Gary Johnson-college
10th-Mike Amrhien-college

98
1st-Corey Patterson-HS
2nd-Dave Kelton-HS
2nd-Jeff Goldbach-HS
3rd-Robert Bass-HS
6th-Tony Shrager-college
10th-Nate Frese-college

99
2nd round-Mike Mallory-HS
3rd-Ryan Gripp-college
7th-Mike Dzurilla-college
9th-Chris Curry-college
10th-Jim Deschaine-college

00
1st-Luis Montanez-HS
2nd-Bobby Hill-HS
3rd-Nic Jackson-college
5th-Gary Banks-HS
7th-Ryan Jorgenson-college
10th-Blake Blesi-college

2001
3rd-Ryan Theriot-college
5th-Brendan Harris-college
8th-Warren Hanna-college
10th-Corey Slavick-college

2002
2nd-Brian Dopirak-HS
3rd-Matt Craig-college
4th-Alan Rick-HS
6th-Chris Walker-college
7th-Joey Mohahan-college
8th-Jason Fransz-college
9th-Adam Greenberg-college
10th-Keith Butler-college

03
1st-Ryan Harvey-HS
3rd-Jake Fox-college
4th-Tony Richie-college
7th-Kyle Boyer-college
9th-Drew Larson-college
10th-Casey McGehee-college

The Cubs have been terrible at developing any type of hitter-both HS and college. There have been more HS hitters taken in the first 5 rounds, and more college hitters taken overall in the top 10 rounds. They simply haven't done a good job of either.


Right, but 1st/2nd round picks are far more likely to develop than later round picks. Looking at those:

2nd round - Quincy Carter - made the big leagues (in the NFL)
1st round (3rd overall) - Corey Patterson - we all know how this turned out
2nd round - David Kelton (bum)
2nd round - Jeff Goldbach (bum)
2nd round - Mike Mallory (bum)
1st round (3rd overall) - Luis Montanez (bum)
2nd round - Brian Dopirak - well on his way to becoming a bum
1st round - Ryan Harvey - see Dopirak

College:
2nd round - Bobby Hill - AAAA player


so it's not fair to compare the success of the lower-drafted college players to the more highly-rated high school players. Plus, look at the guys who have actually made it to the big club the past couple of years. Murton (Red Sox college draftee) and Theriot made the big leagues, and Brendan Harris is having a solid year so far for the D-Rays. Eric Patterson is working his way up the ladder, and Jake Fox has become a good offensive prospect. Meanwhile, just about every high school player on your list was a complete non-factor at the big league level, save Corey Patterson.

User avatar
TruffleShuffle
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 50813
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:47 am
Location: Perth, W.A.
Contact:

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:29 pm

Mephistopheles wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:
Mephistopheles wrote:the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either


good point... have the Cubs spent many high draft picks on college hitters though? I think a lot more have been on high school bats.
how many teams do? most early college picks are always pitchers. the good bat talents sign as high schoolers.


that would certainly explain why two years ago, five of the top seven picks and 10 of the top 30 were college bats.

User avatar
Mephistopheles
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 8726
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 11:29 pm
Contact:

Postby Mephistopheles » Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:36 pm

and last year there were two taken in the first round. the year before the one you mentioned there were four taken in the first round. it obviously depends on the year but in general most of the top bats dont go to college. In general most of the top arms do not, but there are always a lot of projectable arms that do go to college and evolve into elite guys, like Price.

this year there will probably be 3 or 4 of them.

User avatar
TruffleShuffle
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 50813
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:47 am
Location: Perth, W.A.
Contact:

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:25 pm

Mephistopheles wrote:and last year there were two taken in the first round.


If by two you mean four, then you're correct.

User avatar
UK
Superstar
Posts: 19469
Joined: Thu May 15, 2003 8:38 am

Postby UK » Thu Jun 07, 2007 6:02 am


User avatar
Outshined_One
Blam.
Posts: 31943
Joined: Mon Oct 20, 2003 1:38 am
Location: Chicago, IL

Postby Outshined_One » Thu Jun 07, 2007 6:09 am



3. Cubs. Chicago would have taken Vitters had Kansas City passed, but there's no shame in taking Indiana prep righthander Jarrod Parker, who showed electric stuff all spring. A rumor that the Cubs would overdraft Virginia first baseman/lefthander Sean Doolittle circulated in the final days before the draft, but he's a target at No. 48, not at No. 3.

Projected Pick: Jarrod Parker, rhp, Norwell (Ind.) HS.


I can live with that.

User avatar
CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 84788
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 8:20 am
Location: Pasadena, CA

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 07, 2007 6:57 am



Did it really only come up an hour ago? Meh, should have gone to sleep earlier. When will I learn?

User avatar
CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 84788
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 8:20 am
Location: Pasadena, CA

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 07, 2007 7:00 am

Surprises of Callis' mock draft: Mesoraco at 7, Schmidt at 9 (!), Wieters at (Lincecum, then Wieters? wow, that's back-to-back first round steals for the Giants), Weathers at 11, Porcello at 24.

Callis was wrong with the Cubs pick the last two years (who was right last year?).

User avatar
JonnyRed
All-Star
Posts: 1409
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:36 pm
Location: Libertyville, IL

Postby JonnyRed » Thu Jun 07, 2007 9:33 am

I don't understand the concern of possibly spending a few extra millions to draft and sign the player we need, whether it's Price, Wieters (my hope) or Vitters? The Cubs are likely to fetch $800+M from a new owner, and whoever is brought in will not be looking to run a low-budget team. Anyone else feel this way?

User avatar
NCCubFan
Hall of Fame
Posts: 22170
Joined: Tue Apr 22, 2003 9:42 pm
Location: near Raleigh, NC

Postby NCCubFan » Thu Jun 07, 2007 9:38 am

JonnyRed wrote:I don't understand the concern of possibly spending a few extra millions to draft and sign the player we need, whether it's Price, Wieters (my hope) or Vitters? The Cubs are likely to fetch $800+M from a new owner, and whoever is brought in will not be looking to run a low-budget team. Anyone else feel this way?
Yes.
Beautiful words: Former GM Jim Hendry


Return to “Amateur Baseball”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests