2014 Draft Discussion

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:41 pm

seanimal wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:Does the 2nd opinion automatically invalidate their own doctor's opinion?


no, and that's not what i'm suggesting. what i'm suggesting is that any reasonable attempt to validate a serious, impactful medical finding would involve seeking a second opinion. seek a second opinion, and at least there is plausible deniability. a third and it's clear the intent was on getting it right. one team physician making a risk diagnosis that just happens to be awfully convenient towards the immediate goals of the franchise? how is this not suspect behavior?


It wasn't the Assistant GM all of a sudden saying he didn't like his motion in some video review, this was an actual doctor giving his medical opinion. Talk of it being convenient for the Astros and how it's suspect seems to cast aspersions on him with no evidence. Like I said Andrews can disagree with it, and I'd side with him over the Astros doctor, but if I employed a medical professional for these things and his opinion was that there was a potential issue, you're damn right I'd go back with an amended offer. Even with 2 more medical opinions disagreeing with your team doctor, I don't know that it would change my opinion that much. My guy said there could be an issue, unless they exposed him as an utter quack, that concern is still there.

SouthSideRyan wrote:They said they reached out to him and he wouldn't return their calls. That doesn't jeopardize his amateur status.
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we don't know that yet as the ncaa hasn't ruled on his eligibility, afaik. that being said, that's just pure devil's advocate to refuse to acknowledge that the specific mention of calls to his "advisor" (as opposed to his family) were anything other than a smear


They haven't ruled yet, and they may yet rule against Aiken, but I haven't seen much in terms of evidence of malice on the Astros part when it comes to his amateurism. Luhnow has come across as a smart guy during his FO tenure, I guess I just find it hard to believe that he'd make an Amaro like gaffe like that.
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby davell » Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:49 pm

That's yet to be determined. One, if Aiken and his family were truly pissed, it's possible they told him not to bother. 6.5 or nothing type of thing. Hell, for all we know, their price went UP after being flown in and instead of getting announced, they get a half price offer instead.

Two, and this is what's truly unknown by us-is what Close may think the MLBPA may get done. Make the Astros pay the 6.5? Free Agency? Who knows?

I'll say this though.......And it's obvious, but if the end result here winds up with Aiken receiving UNDER 5 mill, Close failed.

Their approach however, makes me think they've got an insurance policy in place that's covering his arm for at least that amount.
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby craig » Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:28 pm

I agree with south side. Houston has their own specialist who looked things through, and ultimately they need to make an evaluation. Was it a bad evaluation medically? Perhaps so. Given the magnitude of all this, seems to me they had enough time where they could and should have gotten not one but more like a dozen extra opinions.

Was Andrews one of the second-opinions they consulted with, and he got the full imagine and everything? Or is he just giving his opinion based on what he's heard on the internet?

As the author of that article implied, it totally doesn't seem like the Astros were looking for a pretext. If so, as the author suggested, they'd not have waited until round 22 to pick some interesting overslot. If so, they'd not have had Nix all lined up for a press-conference. Seems to me that they liked Aiken as the clear top guy, and had Aiken and Nix all lined up and they were good with that, and then boom, very much AGAINST their wishes, the doctor comes back with concerns from the physical. So suddenly they are in scramble mode and canceling the Nix stuff.

They then had a lot of weeks to review the medical stuff and get lots of additional opinions. Given their general incompetence, perhaps they blew that too. But it sure sounds like they should have had time to further think and study, and they seemed to stick to their concerns. If their medical opinions had predominantly agreed that it was not an issue, as I'm understanding is Andrews view, I'd think they'd have come back to the original deal that they wanted in the first place.

Aiken and Nix can go back to the draft in 11 months. But Houston, I think, has had the biggest losses in this whole deal. I can't imagine they'd have done that if it was all a pretext. Sure seems to me that they must have thought the UCL issue really was pretty problematic, or else they'd not have given up Aiken, Nix, and a ton of reputation. Their concerns may be wrong or ill-informed, but I doubt that they are insincere and all pretension.

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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby Outshined_One » Thu Jul 24, 2014 11:20 pm

seanimal wrote:also, let's not forget that the astros have every right to change their mind. that's totally legit. it's the disingenuity and unprofessionalism that i take issue with


Image

My biggest problem with this whole situation is how the Astros potentially screwed Aiken and Nix out of their college eligibility. Say what you will about the NCAA's ridiculous rules and how the MLB draft is handled, but the Astros knew what they were doing when they talked about negotiating directly with Close after Aiken went unsigned.

If this just were about the Astros not signing Aiken because of his medicals, that would have been one thing. But this whole things comes off as petty and vindictive because of what the Astros did.

Nix and Aiken can go to JuCo or an Independent League and be draft eligible next year, but their exposure will be limited and my guess is that the pitching coaches at UCLA are better than what Aiken and Nix would get elsewhere. Potentially depriving Nix and Aiken of that option is what tips the scales away from the Astros for me.

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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby Tryptamine » Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:15 am

The biggest problem for me is that Houston's doctor has no grounds for being concerned about Aiken's "small" UCL. There is no documentation or study that suggests having a smaller UCL will more likely lead to TJS. That doctor is completely pulling his prognosis out of his ass with nothing to back it up. How can you pull 3M off the table of an offer on a prognosis that has no evidence to back it up?

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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:21 am

Tryptamine wrote:The biggest problem for me is that Houston's doctor has no grounds for being concerned about Aiken's "small" UCL. There is no documentation or study that suggests having a smaller UCL will more likely lead to TJS. That doctor is completely pulling his prognosis out of his ass with nothing to back it up. How can you pull 3M off the table of an offer on a prognosis that has no evidence to back it up?


So why do you think the doctor said it? Because Luhnow bribed him? What's your medical expertise to say he has no grounds for being concerned about his "small"(why is this quoted?) UCL?
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:24 am

Outshined_One wrote:
seanimal wrote:also, let's not forget that the astros have every right to change their mind. that's totally legit. it's the disingenuity and unprofessionalism that i take issue with


Image

My biggest problem with this whole situation is how the Astros potentially screwed Aiken and Nix out of their college eligibility. Say what you will about the NCAA's ridiculous rules and how the MLB draft is handled, but the Astros knew what they were doing when they talked about negotiating directly with Close after Aiken went unsigned.

If this just were about the Astros not signing Aiken because of his medicals, that would have been one thing. But this whole things comes off as petty and vindictive because of what the Astros did.

Nix and Aiken can go to JuCo or an Independent League and be draft eligible next year, but their exposure will be limited and my guess is that the pitching coaches at UCLA are better than what Aiken and Nix would get elsewhere. Potentially depriving Nix and Aiken of that option is what tips the scales away from the Astros for me.


[expletive]

“The conversation’s with the family,” Luhnow said. “Whether or not the player has an adviser and to what capacity, that’s not my (subject to comment on). … Eligibility is at risk if they have an agent. You can have an adviser, yeah. Certain behaviors might constitute one versus the other. We don’t comment on conversations. Our conversations are all with the families – the player or the families. In the case of an underage player, the family’s important.”


You think nobody will know to scout Aiken and Nix, (guys who were the #1 pick overall, and a player who'd agreed to 1.5M contract) because they're at a JUCO or playing indy ball. Yeah, who can forget how far Bryce Harper and JD Drew's stock fell.
Last edited by SouthSideRyan on Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby CubinNY » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:28 am

SouthSideRyan wrote:
CubinNY wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:Right what the Astros think is a medical problem is the only thing that matters.

Why offer him a contract?


Because they had to in order to sign any of the 3? It's clear you don't know the mechanisms of the draft.

I know the mechanisms of the draft. They changed their strategy as soon as they found a pretext to to get all three instead of just two. The did not negotiate in good faith and tried to exploit an 17 year old for their benefit. How you cannot see that is what is not clear.

If the other non-biased docs, agreed with the Astros it wouldn't be an issue at all. I'd love to know what exactly went on when they talked to their doctor. I imagine it went like this:

"So what do you think doc?"

"Every thing looks structurally sound in his elbow. There are no tears or injuries that I can see. His UCL is smaller than normal but it looks ok."

"what? Smaller than normal? What does that mean."

"It's smaller than normal. UCL's come in all sizes, nothing major."

"Does that put him at high risk for an injury,?" <wink, wink, nod, nod> "know what I mean?"

" Um, all pitchers are at high risk for an injury?"

"Thanks, Doc. We value your opinion."

(Supervisor from Office Space voice)

"Yeah, Mr. Aiken, there is a little problem with your MRI. Our doctor thinks your UCL is small and you are at a high risk for injury, so we'd like to sign you but we are halving our offer to you."

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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:40 am

There seems to be a lot of medical opinion experts on board here.
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby CubinNY » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:43 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:There seems to be a lot of medical opinion experts on board here.

What does that mean? I don't think anyone here is giving an opinion.

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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:47 am

CubinNY wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:There seems to be a lot of medical opinion experts on board here.

What does that mean? I don't think anyone here is giving an opinion.

No, they are casting judgement about what they know about actual doctor's opinions.
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:54 am

CubinNY wrote:
"So what do you think doc?"

"Every thing looks structurally sound in his elbow. There are no tears or injuries that I can see. His UCL is smaller than normal but it looks ok."

"what? Smaller than normal? What does that mean."

"It's smaller than normal. UCL's come in all sizes, nothing major."

"Does that put him at high risk for an injury,?" <wink, wink, nod, nod> "know what I mean?"

" Um, all pitchers are at high risk for an injury?"

"Thanks, Doc. We value your opinion."

(Supervisor from Office Space voice)

"Yeah, Mr. Aiken, there is a little problem with your MRI. Our doctor thinks your UCL is small and you are at a high risk for injury, so we'd like to sign you but we are halving our offer to you."


That's almost certainly how it went down. Nailed it.
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jul 25, 2014 10:05 am

Whether or not Houston's comments after the signing deadline hurt Aiken's eligibility (they probably do), the NCAA probably will find Aiken and Nix ineligible because they came to a verbal agreement with the Astros (think back to Daniel Poncedeleon in 2013 who had a verbal agreement with the Cubs but failed his physical and was ruled ineligible). The advisor/agent situation probably would be more in line with Ben Wetzler's suspension (not completely ineligible, just suspended for 25% of a season).

It's a shame for college baseball because these are the types of players that could really help grow the sport.

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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby Tryptamine » Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:34 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:The biggest problem for me is that Houston's doctor has no grounds for being concerned about Aiken's "small" UCL. There is no documentation or study that suggests having a smaller UCL will more likely lead to TJS. That doctor is completely pulling his prognosis out of his ass with nothing to back it up. How can you pull 3M off the table of an offer on a prognosis that has no evidence to back it up?


So why do you think the doctor said it? Because Luhnow bribed him? What's your medical expertise to say he has no grounds for being concerned about his "small"(why is this quoted?) UCL?


There is no history proving that this is a concern and there is no study saying this should be a concern. I see a team who had a physician who was unsure about the impact of a small UCL and the Astros decided that they'd take that uncertainty and use it as leverage to try and grab Marshall who was previously thought to be unsignable. So unless the doctor specifically said he is more likely to get injured, there is no proof of this, I put the blame on the Astros front office and not the doctor.

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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby craig » Fri Jul 25, 2014 1:38 pm

So, Houston signed none of Aiken, Nix, or Marshall, primarily because they were most prioritized on signing Marshall. They had the first pick in the draft, wink-wink, and selected aiken the player they wanted the most; but they dumped him, wink-wink, because they wanted Marshall, who was like #56 in BA's list. They set up the Nix press-conference in advance, wink-wink as a really tricky way to make the scam even more amazing. And they did all of this and stuck to their position and signed none of the three players, wink-wink, because they wanted #56 Marshall so much that it was worth sacrificing both Aiken and Nix on the chance that they might get all three. So, they risked and lost everything all on account of a insincere wink-wink fabricated pretext concern, all for the sake of #56 Mac Marshall who they still didn't get.

If Mac Marshall is THAT desirable, I hope he's going to JC so that the Cubs have a chance to get him next summer! He must be something amazing if he's the most valuable guy in the draft and more valuable than the #1 pick.

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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 1:44 pm

And the plan has been in the works for years back to when they hired an incompetent doctor who doesn't know a UCL from an ACL
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby davell » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:04 pm

If the Astros were truly of the opinion that Aiken's injury was a concern, why wouldn't they just offer the minimum to him to insure the future pick? Because that way, they would have not had to worry about having "damaged goods" accept their offer.

But no, they raised their bid quite a bit and may have gone even higher, thus proving they preferred him to the 2nd pick next year. "Injury" and all.

They got greedy, by trying to get more than they originally thought they could, pissed off Aiken and it blew up in their faces. Not sure why this is so hard to comprehend.
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby Tangled Up in Plaid » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:08 pm

tl;dr of this discussion: Astros are douchey, even if what they did is technically within the rules.

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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:08 pm

davell wrote:If the Astros were truly of the opinion that Aiken's injury was a concern, why wouldn't they just offer the minimum to him to insure the future pick? Because that way, they would have not had to worry about having "damaged goods" accept their offer.

But no, they raised their bid quite a bit and may have gone even higher, thus proving they preferred him to the 2nd pick next year. "Injury" and all.

They got greedy, by trying to get more than they originally thought they could, pissed off Aiken and it blew up in their faces. Not sure why this is so hard to comprehend.


They preferred him AND Nix to the 2nd pick next year. No Aiken = No Nix, No Marshall. I don't understand why that is so hard to comprehend.
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:15 pm

craig wrote:So, Houston signed none of Aiken, Nix, or Marshall, primarily because they were most prioritized on signing Marshall. They had the first pick in the draft, wink-wink, and selected aiken the player they wanted the most; but they dumped him, wink-wink, because they wanted Marshall, who was like #56 in BA's list. They set up the Nix press-conference in advance, wink-wink as a really tricky way to make the scam even more amazing. And they did all of this and stuck to their position and signed none of the three players, wink-wink, because they wanted #56 Marshall so much that it was worth sacrificing both Aiken and Nix on the chance that they might get all three. So, they risked and lost everything all on account of a insincere wink-wink fabricated pretext concern, all for the sake of #56 Mac Marshall who they still didn't get.

If Mac Marshall is THAT desirable, I hope he's going to JC so that the Cubs have a chance to get him next summer! He must be something amazing if he's the most valuable guy in the draft and more valuable than the #1 pick.


SouthSideRyan wrote:And the plan has been in the works for years back to when they hired an incompetent doctor who doesn't know a UCL from an ACL


Come on, no one in this thread believes the Astros were pulling some long con to add Marshall to their draft class. People in here are saying once provided with a questionable interpretation of an MRI, they tried to be opportunistic in adding Marshall in an unethical and possibly sleazy manner. It certainly goes with the current Astros regime's reputation.

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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby davell » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:19 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
davell wrote:If the Astros were truly of the opinion that Aiken's injury was a concern, why wouldn't they just offer the minimum to him to insure the future pick? Because that way, they would have not had to worry about having "damaged goods" accept their offer.

But no, they raised their bid quite a bit and may have gone even higher, thus proving they preferred him to the 2nd pick next year. "Injury" and all.

They got greedy, by trying to get more than they originally thought they could, pissed off Aiken and it blew up in their faces. Not sure why this is so hard to comprehend.


They preferred him AND Nix to the 2nd pick next year. No Aiken = No Nix, No Marshall. I don't understand why that is so hard to comprehend.


They already HAD Nix if they signed Aiken. So, they decided Mac Marshall(their version of Carson Sands) was the make or break point of a draft? They let their rep take a humongous hit for THAT? No. Just no. Close and Aiken told them to [expletive] off because they even tried it.
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:32 pm

davell wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:
davell wrote:If the Astros were truly of the opinion that Aiken's injury was a concern, why wouldn't they just offer the minimum to him to insure the future pick? Because that way, they would have not had to worry about having "damaged goods" accept their offer.

But no, they raised their bid quite a bit and may have gone even higher, thus proving they preferred him to the 2nd pick next year. "Injury" and all.

They got greedy, by trying to get more than they originally thought they could, pissed off Aiken and it blew up in their faces. Not sure why this is so hard to comprehend.


They preferred him AND Nix to the 2nd pick next year. No Aiken = No Nix, No Marshall. I don't understand why that is so hard to comprehend.


They already HAD Nix if they signed Aiken. So, they decided Mac Marshall(their version of Carson Sands) was the make or break point of a draft? They let their rep take a humongous hit for THAT? No. Just no. .


Wait, isn't that exactly what you're arguing?
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:32 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Come on, no one in this thread believes the Astros were pulling some long con to add Marshall to their draft class.


It appears several people believe just that.
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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby Tryptamine » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:53 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Come on, no one in this thread believes the Astros were pulling some long con to add Marshall to their draft class.


It appears several people believe just that.


Who are these people? We've all been pretty clear that two unexpected things happened which led to this situation. Marshall, who was supposedly not signable, became signable and Houston's doctor found something out of the normal. There was no plan before any of this. Houston's FO thought Aiken's irregularity would create the leverage they needed to get greedy and grab that one last prospect. Once they realized that Aiken wasn't going to cave and it was going to blow up in their face, they threw 5M at AIken so they could land Aiken+Nix.

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Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby davell » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:53 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
davell wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:
davell wrote:If the Astros were truly of the opinion that Aiken's injury was a concern, why wouldn't they just offer the minimum to him to insure the future pick? Because that way, they would have not had to worry about having "damaged goods" accept their offer.

But no, they raised their bid quite a bit and may have gone even higher, thus proving they preferred him to the 2nd pick next year. "Injury" and all.

They got greedy, by trying to get more than they originally thought they could, pissed off Aiken and it blew up in their faces. Not sure why this is so hard to comprehend.


They preferred him AND Nix to the 2nd pick next year. No Aiken = No Nix, No Marshall. I don't understand why that is so hard to comprehend.


They already HAD Nix if they signed Aiken. So, they decided Mac Marshall(their version of Carson Sands) was the make or break point of a draft? They let their rep take a humongous hit for THAT? No. Just no. .


Wait, isn't that exactly what you're arguing?


No, my point is Mac Marshall is a nothing. And if the Astros actually thought Aiken was messed up, adding Marshall wouldn't be near enough to warrant taking that option over the 2nd pick next year. Showing they valued Aiken quite a bit and didn't want this to happen. They got greedy, pissed off Aiken and Close, and for all we know, may have wound up taking their original offer. They just weren't given the chance because they had pissed them off badly enough to where they weren't given the chance.
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