2014 Draft Discussion

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
User avatar
Cubswin11
Superstar
Posts: 10503
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 2:17 pm

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:39 am

wekim81 wrote:Even if Aiken goes JUCO and declares next year..and even if he's healthy..i expect the issue with his elbow to keep him from ever seeing a 5M signing bonus again.

If he goes the JUCO route and dominates/stays healthy I could easily see him getting $5 million+, plus i'd imagine there are other team's doctors that are of the same mindset of the ones Aiken/Close got to review his MRI and said it shouldn't be an issue.
Screw Pitchers

User avatar
CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 84788
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 8:20 am
Location: Pasadena, CA

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:50 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
wekim81 wrote:Even if Aiken goes JUCO and declares next year..and even if he's healthy..i expect the issue with his elbow to keep him from ever seeing a 5M signing bonus again.

If he goes the JUCO route and dominates/stays healthy I could easily see him getting $5 million+, plus i'd imagine there are other team's doctors that are of the same mindset of the ones Aiken/Close got to review his MRI and said it shouldn't be an issue.


Agreed. Stay healthy and he should be in the top 5 mix and get a $5 million bonus. He has quite a bit of room for negotiation since he'd only be a college freshman.

User avatar
wekim81
Starter
Posts: 589
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2009 11:09 pm

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby wekim81 » Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:42 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
wekim81 wrote:Even if Aiken goes JUCO and declares next year..and even if he's healthy..i expect the issue with his elbow to keep him from ever seeing a 5M signing bonus again.

If he goes the JUCO route and dominates/stays healthy I could easily see him getting $5 million+, plus i'd imagine there are other team's doctors that are of the same mindset of the ones Aiken/Close got to review his MRI and said it shouldn't be an issue.


Agreed. Stay healthy and he should be in the top 5 mix and get a $5 million bonus. He has quite a bit of room for negotiation since he'd only be a college freshman.

I don't see it at all. I guess we'll see what happens. To me, he's damaged goods.

User avatar
mul21
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 7135
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 11:53 am
Location: Hell (a.k.a. St. Louis)
Contact:

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby mul21 » Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:20 pm

He's not hurt and doctors who know what they're talking about have said as much. He's not at any higher risk of blowing out his elbow than any other 18 year old flame thrower. He'll get his money, and a lot of it.
I like beer.

User avatar
CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 84788
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 8:20 am
Location: Pasadena, CA

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:24 pm

wekim81 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
wekim81 wrote:Even if Aiken goes JUCO and declares next year..and even if he's healthy..i expect the issue with his elbow to keep him from ever seeing a 5M signing bonus again.

If he goes the JUCO route and dominates/stays healthy I could easily see him getting $5 million+, plus i'd imagine there are other team's doctors that are of the same mindset of the ones Aiken/Close got to review his MRI and said it shouldn't be an issue.


Agreed. Stay healthy and he should be in the top 5 mix and get a $5 million bonus. He has quite a bit of room for negotiation since he'd only be a college freshman.

I don't see it at all. I guess we'll see what happens. To me, he's damaged goods.


I don't know how you can actually say he is damaged goods. There's a lot of misinformation out there but it does sound like some really well thought of doctors/surgeons think he's healthy.

davell
Superstar
Posts: 15883
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:55 pm

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby davell » Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:24 pm

Seriously, [expletive] Andrews said he's fine.
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

User avatar
David
Hall of Fame
Posts: 45384
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2003 6:33 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby David » Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:27 pm

He was just joking.
Image

User avatar
CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 84788
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 8:20 am
Location: Pasadena, CA

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:37 pm

davell wrote:Seriously, [expletive] Andrews said he's fine.


And I don't think Dr. Andrews cares about an agent-team spat.

User avatar
wekim81
Starter
Posts: 589
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2009 11:09 pm

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby wekim81 » Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:23 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
davell wrote:Seriously, [expletive] Andrews said he's fine.


And I don't think Dr. Andrews cares about an agent-team spat.

So you don't think there's a chance that with all this "mis-information" that's out there - there's not a nonzero chance he's got a shaky UCL that's gonna go eventually? I do.

I can understand him not wanting to sign with Houston due to bad blood. That makes sense. I'm just not sure he's ever gonna get that kind of money in the form of a signing bonus down the road. That's all, nothing more. :)

User avatar
Tangled Up in Plaid
Dripping with analytics
Posts: 5900
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 9:30 pm
Location: Sacramento, CA
Contact:

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby Tangled Up in Plaid » Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:25 pm

are there actually people saying now that the astros totally fabricated this UCL thing to get a discount?

User avatar
Cubswin11
Superstar
Posts: 10503
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 2:17 pm

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:27 pm

Tangled Up in Plaid wrote:are there actually people saying now that the astros totally fabricated this UCL thing to get a discount?

I don't think so, I think that their doctor(s) felt there was something wrong/abnormal then Aiken/Close got multiple other doctors (including Andrews) to review the same info and their conclusions were all the same that nothing was wrong/nor a concern.

So they didn't fabricate it, just their conclusion(s) didn't matchup with a handful of other guys.
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Screw Pitchers

User avatar
mul21
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 7135
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 11:53 am
Location: Hell (a.k.a. St. Louis)
Contact:

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby mul21 » Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:28 pm

Tangled Up in Plaid wrote:are there actually people saying now that the astros totally fabricated this UCL thing to get a discount?


No, there are people saying that while he does have a smaller than normal UCL, according to people who are experts (Dr. James Andrews specifically), there's nothing indicating that it makes him a higher risk for blowing out his elbow and he'll still get a very large signing bonus.
I like beer.

User avatar
XZero77
Superstar
Posts: 18605
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2003 4:57 am
Location: The Wastes
Contact:

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby XZero77 » Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:51 pm

mul21 wrote:
Tangled Up in Plaid wrote:are there actually people saying now that the astros totally fabricated this UCL thing to get a discount?


No, there are people saying that while he does have a smaller than normal UCL, according to people who are experts (Dr. James Andrews specifically), there's nothing indicating that it makes him a higher risk for blowing out his elbow and he'll still get a very large signing bonus.


Maybe I'm being presumptuous, but while I don't think the Astros fabricated anything, I think they tried to overplay the abnormality as leverage to get more savings to use on overslot guys. Obviously they didn't think it was dire, or they wouldn't have offered him the reduced amount, either. If you believe enough in the guy to give him 5MM, giving him 6.5MM should not have been a dealbreaker. They got greedy, and it blew up spectacularly in their faces.

davell
Superstar
Posts: 15883
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:55 pm

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby davell » Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:14 pm

You damn near HAVE to offer the minimum. It's only 40% of slot and if you don't, you don't get the pick next year. Not to mention, they obviously knew Aiken wasn't about to accept at that figure.

I have no doubt that the MRI shows stuff that is less than ideal. But they changed course here. You don't lose Aiken just because you can't get Marshall.Nor do you lose him over 1.5 mill. If you're willing to pay him 5, you should be willing to pay the 6.5. The fact they would have paid 5 shows they didn't care THAT much about the results.

I honestly think they got spooked by Appel, seeing all these pitching injuries, and came to terms that pitching needs to be acquired in ways other than at the top of the draft. Hedged their bets with Marshall, but are likely extremely happy they'll have the 2nd pick next year instead. And I'll be beyond shocked if they take pitching high again.

There only real flaw here is its going to hurt them moving forward negotiating with agents. And I honestly think they're underestimating how much.
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

User avatar
SouthSideRyan
is ELL
Posts: 47568
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Chicago Loop

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:00 pm

If you're willing to pay him 5, you should be willing to pay the 6.5. The fact they would have paid 5 shows they didn't care THAT much about the results.


I don't understand this logic at all.
Exile on Waveland wrote: IU smells like poop.

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Hall of Fame
Posts: 49202
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 10:23 am
Location: Puget Sound

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:20 pm

If they're truly willing to offer 5 million to sign Aiken, it means some combination of 1)they think Aiken's elbow is not a complete non-starter and 2) Nix is worth throwing away money on Aiken to get in the fold. The odds that this logic holds at 5 million but not at 6.5 million seems incredibly unlikely given the circumstances of the situation(they are already getting well below market value prices due to it being the draft, not signing Aiken when he/his reps/other docs think he is healthy has negative external effects, etc).

User avatar
SouthSideRyan
is ELL
Posts: 47568
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Chicago Loop

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:46 pm

But they already came up to 5. The Astros don't have to think his arm is worthless just because they saw something amiss in his physical. If they're willing to spend 5, then surely they can go to 6.5...well surely if they'll go up to 6.5, they can pay slot.
Exile on Waveland wrote: IU smells like poop.

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Hall of Fame
Posts: 49202
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 10:23 am
Location: Puget Sound

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:14 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:But they already came up to 5. The Astros don't have to think his arm is worthless just because they saw something amiss in his physical. If they're willing to spend 5, then surely they can go to 6.5...well surely if they'll go up to 6.5, they can pay slot.


If you offer slot you lose Nix and then you're putting nearly 8 million on Aiken alone. If you're willing to go to 5 that says you're willing to put ~6.5 on Aiken+Nix. If you're willing to do that then my guess is you're willing to put 8 million on Aiken+Nix too, but not necessarily 8 million on only Aiken.

User avatar
SouthSideRyan
is ELL
Posts: 47568
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Chicago Loop

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:50 pm

But why does being willing to put 8m on Aiken+Nix+Marshall mean you're willing to out 8m on Aiken+nix?
Exile on Waveland wrote: IU smells like poop.

User avatar
CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 84788
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 8:20 am
Location: Pasadena, CA

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:51 pm

Nick Faleris at BP with a great analysis of what happened with Aiken, Nix, Marshall and the Astros: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=24223

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Hall of Fame
Posts: 49202
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 10:23 am
Location: Puget Sound

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:56 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:But why does being willing to put 8m on Aiken+Nix+Marshall mean you're willing to out 8m on Aiken+nix?


I didn't say anything about Marshall. All I'm saying is that the odds of the Astros rationally valuing Aiken+Nix at 6.5 million but not willing to go to 8 million for them(losing both and inviting a lot of backlash that will likely have future repercussions) is very unlikely.

davell
Superstar
Posts: 15883
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:55 pm

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby davell » Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:27 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:But why does being willing to put 8m on Aiken+Nix+Marshall mean you're willing to out 8m on Aiken+nix?


I don't think losing Marshall, when you didn't originally think you were signing him anyway, equals the headache attached to re-building trust from agents and potential draft picks.
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

User avatar
CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 84788
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 8:20 am
Location: Pasadena, CA

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:23 am

@NickJFaleris: As general note, Astros had pick of any player in class and wanted Aiken. Next yr comp pick is complete unknown...(cont.)


@NickJFaleris: Aiken would have to be very broken (w/high risk re: return) for unknown comp pick to make up for Aiken and loss of Nix (5th Rdr)...(cont.)


@NickJFaleris: Evidence we have is he's fully functional/healthy, w/relatively short UCL....(cont.)


@NickJFaleris: No evidence structural integrity of ligament is compromised, but disagreement as to inherent risk moving forward.

CubinNY
Superstar
Posts: 19411
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 11:52 am
Location: Pike Road, Al

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby CubinNY » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:24 am

IMO, if they disliked Akein's MRI to the extent that they think he's a greater risk for arm problems you don't offer him a contract. If they only offered him a contract because of the CBA, that kind of sucks for the Astros. But if they used the results as a pretext to parley the other players, that's dirty pool.

If I was the Astros FO and I truly believed he was damaged goods, I would have petitioned MLB for some relief and not sign him. I think they were gambling their shady practice would pay off.

If the Docs think it's not a big deal, it's not a big deal.

User avatar
SouthSideRyan
is ELL
Posts: 47568
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Chicago Loop

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:34 am

CubinNY wrote:IMO, if they disliked Akein's MRI to the extent that they think he's a greater risk for arm problems you don't offer him a contract. If they only offered him a contract because of the CBA, that kind of sucks for the Astros. But if they used the results as a pretext to parley the other players, that's dirty pool.

If I was the Astros FO and I truly believed he was damaged goods, I would have petitioned MLB for some relief and not sign him. I think they were gambling their shady practice would pay off.

If the Docs think it's not a big deal, it's not a big deal.


But their doctor does think it's a big deal. The general public is going to take Andrews's word 100 times out of 100, but a team should trust its own doctors. If he says there's an issue, there's an issue.

The MLB was absolutely not going to give "relief" to the Astros so they could overslot lower round talents. I'd say MLB was quite happy with how this entire ordeal played out.

Why is it dirtier to use an injury concern discovered post-draft to offer a lower contract than to do it with a preexisting injury?
Exile on Waveland wrote: IU smells like poop.


Return to “Amateur Baseball”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest