Fecal League Tracking 2013

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
User avatar
Irrelevant Dude
All-Star
Posts: 4912
Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 10:40 pm
Location: Stuck in the 80's

Re:

Postby Irrelevant Dude » Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:21 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:Tanking isn't going to happen in MLB because immediate impact players in the draft are so rare.

I couldn't disagree more. With the new CBA, there are more incentives for teams to tank and they will continue to do so unless changes are made to the system. You can't just look at draft position. A team's record also impacts their amateur draft budget, international draft budget, and protected pick status for Type A free agents.
Retired User Name: Jody, Jody Davis (2005-2012)

User avatar
Sammy's Boombox
Formerly eb14play2
Posts: 4660
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2008 8:52 am
Location: Kansas City, MO

Re: Re:

Postby Sammy's Boombox » Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:26 pm

Irrelevant Dude wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Tanking isn't going to happen in MLB because immediate impact players in the draft are so rare.

I couldn't disagree more. With the new CBA, there are more incentives for teams to tank and they will continue to do so unless changes are made to the system. You can't just look at draft position. A team's record also impacts their amateur draft budget, international draft budget, and protected pick status for Type A free agents.


Theo said that if you don't make the playoffs you're better off finishing in the bottom 10 and that if it came a point in the season where they knew they would not compete that we would see another sell off and an awful finish. We did.
CUBS PACKERS MIZZOU

User avatar
RammyFanny
All-Star
Posts: 3711
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 2:08 pm

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby RammyFanny » Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:56 pm

Well, we're officially going to be 4th or 5th. Should be tied with the Twins assuming they don't come back late. We've got the tiebreaker.
Image

User avatar
A New Era
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 6012
Joined: Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:47 pm

Re: Re:

Postby A New Era » Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:08 pm

Sammy's Boombox wrote:
Irrelevant Dude wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Tanking isn't going to happen in MLB because immediate impact players in the draft are so rare.

I couldn't disagree more. With the new CBA, there are more incentives for teams to tank and they will continue to do so unless changes are made to the system. You can't just look at draft position. A team's record also impacts their amateur draft budget, international draft budget, and protected pick status for Type A free agents.


Theo said that if you don't make the playoffs you're better off finishing in the bottom 10 and that if it came a point in the season where they knew they would not compete that we would see another sell off and an awful finish. We did.


This is the right way to do it. I would rather end up with pick #4, CJ Edwards, Mike Olt, Neil Ramirez ++ than the #15 pick and Garza for the rest of the year on a faint hope of competing.
Image

User avatar
Sammy's Boombox
Formerly eb14play2
Posts: 4660
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2008 8:52 am
Location: Kansas City, MO

Re: Re:

Postby Sammy's Boombox » Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:16 pm

A New Era wrote:
Sammy's Boombox wrote:
Irrelevant Dude wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Tanking isn't going to happen in MLB because immediate impact players in the draft are so rare.

I couldn't disagree more. With the new CBA, there are more incentives for teams to tank and they will continue to do so unless changes are made to the system. You can't just look at draft position. A team's record also impacts their amateur draft budget, international draft budget, and protected pick status for Type A free agents.


Theo said that if you don't make the playoffs you're better off finishing in the bottom 10 and that if it came a point in the season where they knew they would not compete that we would see another sell off and an awful finish. We did.


This is the right way to do it. I would rather end up with pick #4, CJ Edwards, Mike Olt, Neil Ramirez ++ than the #15 pick and Garza for the rest of the year on a faint hope of competing.


That is the point. The right way to do it under the current CBA is to tank when it is obvious you will not be close to competing and have players that are worth more than a sandwich pick that you do not plan on having around the next time you compete. They should take away the incentive to tank games after some cutoff point (such as the trade deadline). It could severely affect the competitiveness in late season games when certain teams are trying to make the postseason. It also makes for dreadfully awful baseball for many teams for extended months. That cannot be good for the game overall.
CUBS PACKERS MIZZOU

User avatar
TruffleShuffle
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 50813
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:47 am
Location: Perth, W.A.
Contact:

Re: Re:

Postby TruffleShuffle » Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:30 pm

Sammy's Boombox wrote:That is the point. The right way to do it under the current CBA is to tank when it is obvious you will not be close to competing and have players that are worth more than a sandwich pick that you do not plan on having around the next time you compete. They should take away the incentive to tank games after some cutoff point (such as the trade deadline). It could severely affect the competitiveness in late season games when certain teams are trying to make the postseason. It also makes for dreadfully awful baseball for many teams for extended months. That cannot be good for the game overall.


after the trade deadline, there's really not a huge incentive to tank. moving up a few spots in the draft isn't very important in baseball, certainly not like it is in (for example) basketball. and every major professional sport has some incentive to tank, whether it be to increase chances in the lottery (nba) or making the draft order simply the reverse order of finish.

the much bigger reason to "tank" and not finish 15th is because it makes far more sense to turn an asset like garza into edwards, olt, ramirez and grimm than it does to win another two games the rest of that season, and still miss the playoffs.

User avatar
CubsWin
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5791
Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2003 3:25 am
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby CubsWin » Fri Sep 27, 2013 6:54 pm

Most likely it doesn't make a difference whether you pick 4th or 5th, but it can. We won't know how many "elite" prospects or where the 1st tier in prospects drops off until next May. If the Cubs pick 5th and there are clearly 4 elite prospects in next year's draft, then this whole tracking of the draft pick thing takes on a greater significance. We just can't know that yet.
"I know my title is general manager, but I consider myself the director of spending for the N.Y. Yankees." — Brian Cashman.

davell
Superstar
Posts: 15883
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:55 pm

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby davell » Fri Sep 27, 2013 6:58 pm

If we want 4, we need to get swept, because the Twins are doing their damndest to lose.
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

User avatar
WrigleyField 22
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 8355
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 4:48 pm
Location: hnderstabxcwhsg

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 7:19 pm

Baseball adds two playoff spots: Incentive to tank increases.

Sorry I'm not seeing it and since the new CBA I'm not seeing some huge increase in bottom dweller sell offs. There do seem to be a few more buyers though.
ImageImage

User avatar
CubsWin
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5791
Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2003 3:25 am
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby CubsWin » Fri Sep 27, 2013 11:49 pm

Magic number for the 4th pick is 2 with 2 to play.
"I know my title is general manager, but I consider myself the director of spending for the N.Y. Yankees." — Brian Cashman.

User avatar
A New Era
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 6012
Joined: Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:47 pm

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby A New Era » Sat Sep 28, 2013 5:49 pm

Cubs lost, Twins lost. It's gonna go down to the last game, god dammit.

Only silver lining is we win in a tie. But still a possibility with a win and a twins loss, we lose the 4th pick.
Image

davell
Superstar
Posts: 15883
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:55 pm

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby davell » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:52 pm

Shark has been completely useless the entire 2nd half: no doubt in my mind he throws a gem tomorrow to finish the season on "a high note " costing us 4.
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

User avatar
David
Hall of Fame
Posts: 45384
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2003 6:33 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby David » Sat Sep 28, 2013 7:01 pm

davell wrote:Shark has been completely useless the entire 2nd half: no doubt in my mind he throws a gem tomorrow to finish the season on "a high note " costing us 4.


Second half xFIP of 3.68.
Image

davell
Superstar
Posts: 15883
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:55 pm

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby davell » Sat Sep 28, 2013 7:10 pm

David wrote:
davell wrote:Shark has been completely useless the entire 2nd half: no doubt in my mind he throws a gem tomorrow to finish the season on "a high note " costing us 4.


Second half xFIP of 3.68.

I love advanced stats, but he's sucked. Unlucky somewhat? Maybe a bit. But he's walking more guys and getting hit hard. Just not a fan of his season, at least to what I was thinking it could be.
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

User avatar
TruffleShuffle
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 50813
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:47 am
Location: Perth, W.A.
Contact:

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby TruffleShuffle » Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:39 pm

davell wrote:
David wrote:
davell wrote:Shark has been completely useless the entire 2nd half: no doubt in my mind he throws a gem tomorrow to finish the season on "a high note " costing us 4.


Second half xFIP of 3.68.

I love advanced stats, but he's sucked. Unlucky somewhat? Maybe a bit. But he's walking more guys and getting hit hard. Just not a fan of his season, at least to what I was thinking it could be.


his second half line drive percentage is lower than the first half. his walk rate was up half a walk per 9 innings though.

User avatar
CubsWin
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5791
Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2003 3:25 am
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby CubsWin » Sun Sep 29, 2013 2:47 am

There are 4 possible outcomes to the Cubs and Twins games today. Both teams lose, both teams win, the Twins win & the Cubs lose or the Cubs win & the Twins lose. Only the last scenario winds up with the Cubs picking 5th instead of 4th. That might lead one to believe that the Cubs have a 75% chance of picking 4th. Um, no.

The Twins have Scott Diamond who is terrible and has been even worse recently going up against Ubaldo Jiminez who is good and has been even better recently. If Cleveland wins, there in the wildcard. They have every reason to win.

The Cards would have had Joe Kelly pitching for them today, he of the big fastball and low ERA, except they decided to make a last minute change to a pitcher who has given up more hits than innings pitched, has a WHIP of 1.56 and has walked more than he's struckout.

I'd put the Cubs chances of picking 4th next June at 50/50.
"I know my title is general manager, but I consider myself the director of spending for the N.Y. Yankees." — Brian Cashman.

User avatar
mul21
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 7135
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 11:53 am
Location: Hell (a.k.a. St. Louis)
Contact:

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby mul21 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 9:04 am

CubsWin wrote:There are 4 possible outcomes to the Cubs and Twins games today. Both teams lose, both teams win, the Twins win & the Cubs lose or the Cubs win & the Twins lose. Only the last scenario winds up with the Cubs picking 5th instead of 4th. That might lead one to believe that the Cubs have a 75% chance of picking 4th. Um, no.

The Twins have Scott Diamond who is terrible and has been even worse recently going up against Ubaldo Jiminez who is good and has been even better recently. If Cleveland wins, there in the wildcard. They have every reason to win.

The Cards would have had Joe Kelly pitching for them today, he of the big fastball and low ERA, except they decided to make a last minute change to a pitcher who has given up more hits than innings pitched, has a WHIP of 1.56 and has walked more than he's struckout.

I'd put the Cubs chances of picking 4th next June at 50/50.


It's not like the Cards have nothing to play for. They need to finish ahead of the Braves for home field because the Braves hold the tie breaker. I have a feeling they'll put forth a good effort today.
I like beer.

User avatar
mul21
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 7135
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 11:53 am
Location: Hell (a.k.a. St. Louis)
Contact:

Re: Re:

Postby mul21 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 9:06 am

TruffleShuffle wrote:
Sammy's Boombox wrote:That is the point. The right way to do it under the current CBA is to tank when it is obvious you will not be close to competing and have players that are worth more than a sandwich pick that you do not plan on having around the next time you compete. They should take away the incentive to tank games after some cutoff point (such as the trade deadline). It could severely affect the competitiveness in late season games when certain teams are trying to make the postseason. It also makes for dreadfully awful baseball for many teams for extended months. That cannot be good for the game overall.


after the trade deadline, there's really not a huge incentive to tank. moving up a few spots in the draft isn't very important in baseball, certainly not like it is in (for example) basketball. and every major professional sport has some incentive to tank, whether it be to increase chances in the lottery (nba) or making the draft order simply the reverse order of finish.

the much bigger reason to "tank" and not finish 15th is because it makes far more sense to turn an asset like garza into edwards, olt, ramirez and grimm than it does to win another two games the rest of that season, and still miss the playoffs.


Another big reason to tank is to get a protected pick and not have to give up your first rounder, especially if you think you're close to competing and are likely to go after a FA with a qualifying offer attached.
I like beer.

User avatar
Tangled Up in Plaid
Dripping with analytics
Posts: 5900
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 9:30 pm
Location: Sacramento, CA
Contact:

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby Tangled Up in Plaid » Sun Sep 29, 2013 10:25 am

So the Cubs have a "tiebreaker" over the Twins for the 4th pick if they end up with the same record? Why?

davell
Superstar
Posts: 15883
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:55 pm

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby davell » Sun Sep 29, 2013 10:34 am

Tangled Up in Plaid wrote:So the Cubs have a "tiebreaker" over the Twins for the 4th pick if they end up with the same record? Why?

Worse record in 2012.
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

User avatar
Tangled Up in Plaid
Dripping with analytics
Posts: 5900
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 9:30 pm
Location: Sacramento, CA
Contact:

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby Tangled Up in Plaid » Sun Sep 29, 2013 10:35 am

davell wrote:
Tangled Up in Plaid wrote:So the Cubs have a "tiebreaker" over the Twins for the 4th pick if they end up with the same record? Why?

Worse record in 2012.


That's... weird.

davell
Superstar
Posts: 15883
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:55 pm

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby davell » Sun Sep 29, 2013 10:43 am

Tangled Up in Plaid wrote:
davell wrote:
Tangled Up in Plaid wrote:So the Cubs have a "tiebreaker" over the Twins for the 4th pick if they end up with the same record? Why?

Worse record in 2012.


That's... weird.

You like a coin flip better, because I don't see a lot of options that make more sense.
Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

User avatar
Tangled Up in Plaid
Dripping with analytics
Posts: 5900
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 9:30 pm
Location: Sacramento, CA
Contact:

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby Tangled Up in Plaid » Sun Sep 29, 2013 1:12 pm

Was going to suggest a Hell in a Cell match with Theo Epstein vs. whoever runs the Twins.

User avatar
ctcf
Hall of Fame
Posts: 25527
Joined: Sun Jun 29, 2003 9:33 am
Location: Derplyn
Contact:

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby ctcf » Sun Sep 29, 2013 1:51 pm

Looking like a safe bet right now.

User avatar
Vinestal
All-Star
Posts: 4863
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2003 12:06 pm
Contact:

Re: Fecal League Tracking 2013

Postby Vinestal » Sun Sep 29, 2013 3:03 pm

Well we win the 4th pick! hooray Id have rather picked first but I guess I'll settle for 4th its better than 5th. lol


Return to “Amateur Baseball”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest