2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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CaliforniaRaisin
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2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:49 am

Kiley McDaniel on the top 2016 and even 2017 prospects: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/20162017 ... y-edition/

2016:

1. Alec Hansen, RHP, Oklahoma
2. Riley Pint (18.6), RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas HS (KS), LSU commit
3. Blake Rutherford (19.0), CF, Chaminade Prep HS (CA), UCLA commit
4. Nick Banks, RF, Texas A&M:
5. Austin Bergner (19.1), RHP, Windemere Prep HS (FL), No commit

Note: After talking to some sources that have seen most or all of these top 5 players, this seemed like the cutoff for the elite, potential strong 1-1 choices and you could put them in almost any oder. For reference, there is maybe one of those players in the 2015 draft crop, so to already have at least five (and you could argue for another five that I identify below) this early in the process, particularly from the prep side, is a great sign for the top of this draft class. I’ll be a little more brief in my notes for the rest of the top 30.

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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby CubInOK » Wed Apr 29, 2015 5:52 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
5. Austin Bergner (19.1), RHP, Windemere Prep HS (FL)

What a MFer.

FDB

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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Apr 29, 2015 8:22 am

So what's the strategy good teams take when they are picking 20 or later? Or I should ask what are some type of moves we should expect this front office to make picking later? HS guys who drop for signability? College guys with safer floors (so we can keep pumping talent to MLB to the minors in a smaller window)?
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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Apr 29, 2015 8:26 am

We shouldn't have a 1st round pick next year.
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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Apr 29, 2015 8:33 am

SouthSideRyan wrote:We shouldn't have a 1st round pick next year.

Forgot about that whole FA rule... But yeah, hopefully we don't have one
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CaliforniaRaisin
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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:38 am

CubInOK wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
5. Austin Bergner (19.1), RHP, Windemere Prep HS (FL)

What a MFer.

FDB


Same HS as Nick Gordon.

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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:52 am

MFer Nick Gordon
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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Thu May 21, 2015 9:28 am

Kiley put Connor Jones at 8, I think, but if you only take his 2nd half of this season ... he'd be up there top 5. He's gotten that much better, particularly once the pressure shifted to him when Nate Kirby got hurt. If he goes like this all of 2016, I wouldn't be surprised if Jones is 1-1. The breaking ball's gotten better. He's got the frame, and the changeup is still quality, while still able to generate groundballs. I have enough concerns on Hansen and Puk that I don't think they are locks to stay there, and a good, top college arm likely tops most prep guys, unless prep guy is some super-elite level talent.

Of course, Jones scuffled in the first half a bit, so he really needs a dominant 2016 to solidify his case as a top 5-10 guy.

Decided to go look at Kiley's list ... Has the elite up to 7 now.

As for 2017, it's obviously way early to tell, but I have my doubts Bukauskus stays that high. He's ... normal human height, but really undersized for a pitcher. There's some effort as well. A long way to go.

Pavin Smith that high is a bit ... odd. I love the bat. The bat is really good, and he's going to get a lot stronger with a lot more pop, but he's a 1st/LF guy. Not Vogelbach, but as he gets bigger/stronger, likely becomes below average in the OF. Hard to see that type staying that high. If there is one UVA guy that I'd be curious about, it'd be Adam Haseley, but there's a lot of work to do. Derek Casey (who the Cubs were reportedly interested in) will likely slot as a Saturday or Sunday starter next year, and could take big steps after showing signs this year as a weekday starter, then getting hurt. Really too far off to assess 2017.

___

That said, we should be way down this list, so only way we got any of the top guys is if some 2015 dynamic occurred where a bunch of guys get hurt/struggle and slide.

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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jul 16, 2015 2:46 pm

AJ Puk

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CaliforniaRaisin
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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Aug 13, 2015 7:09 am


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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby apete6 » Thu Aug 13, 2015 8:17 am

SouthSideRyan wrote:We shouldn't have a 1st round pick next year.


Couple months late, but now that Price has been traded, he won't require a pick (similar to Lester this year, though it didn't matter). So, we should still have a 1st round pick somewhere in the 20s unless we sign Heyward or someone like that instead of Price.

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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Aug 13, 2015 2:00 pm

apete6 wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:We shouldn't have a 1st round pick next year.


Couple months late, but now that Price has been traded, he won't require a pick (similar to Lester this year, though it didn't matter). So, we should still have a 1st round pick somewhere in the 20s unless we sign Heyward or someone like that instead of Price.


Would probably be best if they did both. The two top FAs! Worth it!

---

Toonster, agreed on Jones being pretty studly. I like him better than Hansen and think he's the top college RHSP. Puk's a possible freak THO, so should be good competition between he and Jones for the top college arm.

Okey's a good all around C prospect, but not really big on any position players yet after him. RHP

Zack Jackson reminds me a little of James Shields:



How could I post just that video without the tweet? This would be the direct link:

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/B91oEiuIIAIGcIj.mp4

Anyway - fastball/changeup RH with long limbs on a 6'3"/6'4" frame. Might be my second favorite college RHSP after Jones with Quantrill down.

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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Aug 17, 2015 3:15 pm


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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Fri Aug 21, 2015 1:03 pm

My perspective of Jackson is somewhat biased. I know the reports and he's an intriguing arm, but two years of watching UVA bats get to him eventually ... just not that enthused with him overall. Probably more a testament to UVA bats, even last year's average lineup, than a knock on Jackson. I'm not sure he's a starter, though.

Total side note, but this looks like a good draft to get a solid college guy in the mid-late first. Obviously, a long way to go.

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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby davell » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:02 pm

So we pick 28th. Which certainly shows how great of a season we've had. But it pisses me off that we pick behind teams that are playing in divisional series immediately. I'm fine with the WC game, but I think that division winners with worse records should pick behind all WC teams.
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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby Tim » Tue Oct 13, 2015 10:51 pm

Has anyone posted yet that Kiley is leaving FG to take a job with the Braves?
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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby Tryptamine » Wed Oct 14, 2015 4:56 am

Tim wrote:Has anyone posted yet that Kiley is leaving FG to take a job with the Braves?


Wow, that is seriously a bummer. By far my favorite guy.

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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby davell » Wed Oct 14, 2015 1:35 pm

I didn't know where to put it, but it definitely sucks. He had raised the bar quite a bit for what to expect from these guys, in my mind.
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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Nov 11, 2015 4:55 am

A couple HS arms I like in general, no clue on round:

RHP Alex Speas: Ideal frame and plenty of athleticism, fast arm, big fastball potential and can spin the ball a little. Has no idea where anything is going yet, but I imagine his upside is among the highest for HS RHPs next year.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mC_FvLphEuk

LHP Cole Ragans: Might like him more than the more ballyhoooooed Braxton Garrett. Derek Holland-yish.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OBqCpeYZngs

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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby CubinNY » Fri Nov 13, 2015 1:22 pm

What do the experts think of this draft class? Is it deep (I hope)?

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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Nov 13, 2015 1:25 pm

CubinNY wrote:What do the experts think of this draft class? Is it deep (I hope)?

I don't have any idea on the depth, but I do know that there is no clear 1.1 guy like a Harper or Strasburg.
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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Nov 14, 2015 5:52 pm

Not an expert but some early thoughts:

- I think Zach Collins is Schwarber 2.0 in the sense that he's a LHH college catcher that probably won't play C and can mash. Between the two, he's a better prospect. I think he ends up at 1B when it's all said and done, but as a pro should see C, maybe 3B, and/or COF too. He's the top college bat for me, think he can be a Thome-esque LHH.

- Jason Groome is one of the handful best HS SP prospects to come out this decade. I think he's every bit as good and talented as Giolito, Bundy, and Aiken, and even ahead of my favorite - Allard from last year. All those guys got hurt as seniors, two had surgery. Avoiding injury this coming spring would be huge. Reminds me of Lester.

- AJ Puk is physical freak and might comfortably own the best fastball in the draft. Still hasn't leaned out yet, one of the most projectable bodies in the draft. He will get Andrew Miller comps, I expect it anyway, but a more complete SP prospect coming out of college. I'm thinking more along the lines of Chuck Finley. He needs plenty of work, but extremely rare bundle of tools.

- Those are my top three guys with Collins #1. Can't say I'm extremely high on anyone else right now, but it's November 2015. Connor Jones may be #4 THO, just have not seen the overpowering version yet. Avery Tuck OF is my early favorite HS bat.

- Seems like a weak year for HS bats and college pitching. A few of the better college arms have already had TJ surgery. One of them, Cal Quantrill, would be right with the tippy top guys me if he didn't. Saw him outpitch Kellogg as a freshman.

- There's some depth with college position players, enough OFers where one might emerge. Kyle Lewis from Mercer could be that guy. I like Okey the Clemson C some too.

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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Jan 03, 2016 6:31 pm

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/gr ... -class-16/

That's BA's top 100 HSers as of 12/1/15. Already touched on Groome, he's the goods, but there's some other guys:

- #9 Reggie Lawson is my favorite HS RH so far. He's a John Lackey starter kit as far as the body and game goes. Could easily say Taijuan Walker too, but there's more finesse and nuance to Lawson's game than Walker. After Groome, might have the best fastball command in the HS class with the kind of size, frame, and athleticism teams can dream on. This is the kind of prospect who could take a leap forward, throw harder this spring, and become a top 5 or 10 pick. As is, he's similar to but an all around better prospect than Underwood coming out of HS.

- Ian Anderson, #7 there, might have the highest SP ceiling of all the non-Groome arms. He lacks Lawson's raw size, but has more dominance to his game with his curveball being a better strikeout pitch. Like Lawson, he shows an advanced feel for pitching already but has not made the velocity jump a HS RH would need to get tippy top of the draft hype (or more hype in general). If either of these guys had Pint's velocity but kept everything else the same, it wouldn't even be a contest as to who the better prospects are.

- Alex Speas, #14, has the fastest arm in the bunch and is that physical freak more comparable to a Taijuan Walker or Mike Kopech. Total wild card

- My guess for Rutheford comps will be the good version of Grady Sizemore. Moniak's more bark than bite. Nolan Jones and Avery Tuck are serious competition for not just top HS bat, but top HS player,

- Zach Hess is going to be a tough sign. He's a guy who could go to college and be the Max Scherzer of the 2019 draft. One of those guys who makes it work with a non traditional delivery. I do think he can work with that as a SP, just needs to get much stronger. He's a guy who could sneak into the back of the first or something with a great spring.

- Noooo waaaay is Avery Tuck behind 40 guys in this HS group. Tuck's closer to the top overall HS prospect than where he is on that list.

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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:22 pm

Looking at BA's college list ...http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/160109/ I'm somewhat ambivalent about the college class right now.

On the one hand, that's an excellent college class of arms to start the year. Now, pitchers ... you never know (I think it was, uh, 2006? when there was an awful spring, draft-wise, for a ton of preseason arms.) Still, this college crop seems to have it all - power arms, command guys, ceiling, floor. It looks like a really superb class of arms, and as of now, there looks to be good depth of arms through the first 5 rounds or so. Could see the two Vandy arms (Stone/Kilichowski) make big moves up the ladder.

That said, it's arms, and the college positional players, as of now, seem really ... somewhat underwhelming to me right now. I like Senzel's swing - looks nice and compact, with the potential for pop. Dunno, just seems like a weak crop as of now.

That said, a long way to go, and a lot of changes are bound to happen.

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Re: 2016 MLB Draft Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:22 pm

Looking at BA's college list ...http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/160109/ I'm somewhat ambivalent about the college class right now.

On the one hand, that's an excellent college class of arms to start the year. Now, pitchers ... you never know (I think it was, uh, 2006? when there was an awful spring, draft-wise, for a ton of preseason arms.) Still, this college crop seems to have it all - power arms, command guys, ceiling, floor. It looks like a really superb class of arms, and as of now, there looks to be good depth of arms through the first 5 rounds or so. Could see the two Vandy arms (Stone/Kilichowski) make big moves up the ladder.

That said, it's arms, and the college positional players, as of now, seem really ... somewhat underwhelming to me right now. I like Senzel's swing - looks nice and compact, with the potential for pop. Dunno, just seems like a weak crop as of now.

That said, a long way to go, and a lot of changes are bound to happen.


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