2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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SouthSideRyan
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:26 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:
Tim wrote:Then say that instead of making condescending statements about people not learning from last year when that draft goes completely against your point.


no it doesn't. people jumped to conclusions too early about the draft last year when all the signs were that the cubs were going to bring in at least one overslot. now all the signs are that the cubs will bring in at least one overslot. they're clearly going to spend as much as they can without losing a first round pick, since that's what they've done every year since the new rules came in.


That's not entirely true either. They left close to 300K on the table in 2013. Not saying I blame them, it's tough to know who's going to be out there for you, and to nail the number you can get each of your draftees signed for.
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:58 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:As a side note, the 2010 draft looks bad at the top ... but there's a chance four guys from that draft could see decent MLB careers (Szczur, Jokisch, Beeler, and Aaron Kurcz is actually doing okay in the upper levels as a pen arm). No studs from that draft, but honestly ... getting 4 guys up the AAA with a shot at the bigs ... isn't bad. Not great, but not bad.


I think that's pretty unequivocally bad, myself.

That said, the 2011 draft is a good example, there's a bunch of guys who were cause for draft day excitement and then again when they were able to be signed. Gretzky, Lockhart, Dunston, Martin, Maples, Shoulders, the Cubs absolutely won the day(s) of the draft. The certainty about what prospects are better than others after the first...5 picks(not rounds, picks) or so, and sometimes not even then(Schwarber) is vastly, vastly overstated.


I don't think it's an unfair assessment to say that's bad. I just feel differently. I think it's much harder than fans acknowledge to get guys up to AAA (hence why we see so many re-treads at AAA hanging around) and close to a cup of tea in the bigs. 3 of the 4 from 2010 have gotten big league time. If I dug around, I could probably find multiple draft years where teams haven't gotten anyone to the bigs.

By no means am I saying it's a good draft. I guess it comes down to what one views as a win.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Jun 09, 2015 10:01 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Now here's a really bad draft: http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/draft. ... &year=2005


I completely forgot that we drafted Michael Brenly twice.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby ScrubMD » Tue Jun 09, 2015 10:14 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Now here's a really bad draft: http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/draft. ... &year=2005


At least Pawelek had upside at one point.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby TruffleShuffle » Tue Jun 09, 2015 10:27 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:
Tim wrote:Then say that instead of making condescending statements about people not learning from last year when that draft goes completely against your point.


no it doesn't. people jumped to conclusions too early about the draft last year when all the signs were that the cubs were going to bring in at least one overslot. now all the signs are that the cubs will bring in at least one overslot. they're clearly going to spend as much as they can without losing a first round pick, since that's what they've done every year since the new rules came in.


That's not entirely true either. They left close to 300K on the table in 2013. Not saying I blame them, it's tough to know who's going to be out there for you, and to nail the number you can get each of your draftees signed for.


i wonder how much of that was earmarked for daniel poncedeleon.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Tim » Tue Jun 09, 2015 11:14 pm

ScrubMD wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Now here's a really bad draft: http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/draft. ... &year=2005


At least Pawelek had upside at one point.

Are you suggesting Happ doesn't?
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby SRQCub » Tue Jun 09, 2015 11:23 pm

RynoRules wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:


I really hope that Dewees can play CF up the ladder. The idea of him in LF is very unappetizing. He's not going to RF on a 35 arm, that's for sure.


Has anyone ever developed a stronger OF arm through working on form? Mind you I'm not talking about going from 35 to 60; just maybe 35 to 40.


According to Diamond Mines, the first scouting report on Larry Walker listed him as a 4/8 for arm strength, with a future potential of a 5/8. I think history has shown that to be drastically incorrect.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Tim » Tue Jun 09, 2015 11:28 pm

SRQCub wrote:
RynoRules wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:


I really hope that Dewees can play CF up the ladder. The idea of him in LF is very unappetizing. He's not going to RF on a 35 arm, that's for sure.


Has anyone ever developed a stronger OF arm through working on form? Mind you I'm not talking about going from 35 to 60; just maybe 35 to 40.


According to Diamond Mines, the first scouting report on Larry Walker listed him as a 4/8 for arm strength, with a future potential of a 5/8. I think history has shown that to be drastically incorrect.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby wvcbxl » Wed Jun 10, 2015 4:17 am

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Little Slide Rooter » Wed Jun 10, 2015 6:07 am

toonsterwu wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Now here's a really bad draft: http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/draft. ... &year=2005


I completely forgot that we drafted Michael Brenly twice.


Thanks for that little resource, BTW. Am I the only one who didn't know that we drafted Sonny Gray in the late rounds of 2008? I know that type of thing happens all the time, IE 2003 Tim Lincecum, but damn.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Stannis » Wed Jun 10, 2015 6:49 am

toonsterwu wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Now here's a really bad draft: http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/draft. ... &year=2005


I completely forgot that we drafted Michael Brenly twice.


in the same draft! hendry was loyal to his guys.
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby ScrubMD » Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:07 am

Tim wrote:
ScrubMD wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Now here's a really bad draft: http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/draft. ... &year=2005


At least Pawelek had upside at one point.

Are you suggesting Happ doesn't?


I was referring to Hayden Simpson. I posted the 2010 draft as an example of a poop draft, Raisin posted 2005.

Happ was my top choice this year (of guys who would reasonably be available at 9).

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby ScrubMD » Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:15 am

"Cubs go with 3B Matt Rose in the 11th round. I guess they're really unhappy with Bryant's defense." -Harold Reynolds, probably

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Smack » Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:19 am

ScrubMD wrote:"Cubs go with 3B Matt Rose in the 11th round. I guess they're really unhappy with Bryant's defense." -Harold Reynolds, probably


Bryant can't play forever.
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Tim » Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:33 am

ScrubMD wrote:
Tim wrote:
ScrubMD wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Now here's a really bad draft: http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/draft. ... &year=2005


At least Pawelek had upside at one point.

Are you suggesting Happ doesn't?


I was referring to Hayden Simpson. I posted the 2010 draft as an example of a poop draft, Raisin posted 2005.

Happ was my top choice this year (of guys who would reasonably be available at 9).

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Bruno7481 » Wed Jun 10, 2015 11:07 am

Cubs drafting some Indiana University buddies of Schwarber's. RHP's Jake Kelzer and Scott Effross. Kelzer is 6-7, was also in the IU swim team.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby craig » Wed Jun 10, 2015 11:21 am

Cubs haven't signed an overslot guy after round 13 in any of the previous three drafts. Unless Wilson ends up not signing for some reason, I doubt that will change this year either.

I think their $$$ was basically invested after round 4 with Wilson. Hopefully Berg or some $100-slot guy emerges eventually as a big-league contributor.

Good scouting, development, and luck can sometimes get a guy for $0.1 or less. But I think this was pretty much a 4-round draft. Hopefully some of the four $$ guys work out.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Wed Jun 10, 2015 11:35 am

With the way all these intriguing prep guys are dropping, it's fairly clear that signability was a factor. Looking at it with the knowledge that these guys aren't likely to sign ... this draft was ridiculously thin. It'll likely still turn out quality players, but man, it was thin.

Every once in awhile, a depth draft is needed. I imagine this draft will probably fill some holes in the system and provide some useful system pieces, and maybe a couple guys that reach the majors.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Tim » Wed Jun 10, 2015 11:58 am

That's a whole bunch of college kids
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SouthSideRyan
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:16 pm

This is all Truffle's fault.
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:22 pm

Don't mind the strategy going college picks and guys that could move faster and may be a little safer but have lower ceilings, I guess. Since our window is just opening now for long-term contention (and we already have guys up and in the minors that are/could be roster cornerstones) it will be nice to, hopefully, have some quick movers to provide MLB help as role players. If you want to look at it from a glass half full standpoint
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Tryptamine » Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:29 pm

What an awful draft. The 4th most exciting prospect is the side arming 85MPH reliever from UCLA.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Deeg » Wed Jun 10, 2015 1:15 pm

Finally an overslot guy - in the 26h round. Jared Padgett (Florida HS lefty) is a longshot to sign drafted that late, but the Cubs certainly should have some money and he is about a 4th-round talent. I sure hope all this extra money isn't targeted for Wilson, because I don't think he's worth it.
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 10, 2015 1:19 pm


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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Wed Jun 10, 2015 1:21 pm

I Want to hope on Padgett, but if they felt confident, tthey probably pop him earlier.

I Hope we get Cresto signed. Wonder about Twomey.


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