2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Vinestal
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Vinestal » Wed Jun 10, 2015 3:01 pm

Deeg wrote:Finally an overslot guy - in the 26h round. Jared Padgett (Florida HS lefty) is a longshot to sign drafted that late, but the Cubs certainly should have some money and he is about a 4th-round talent. I sure hope all this extra money isn't targeted for Wilson, because I don't think he's worth it.

There was an article on his college site reporting he turned down 3rd round money from the Cubs already.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Wed Jun 10, 2015 4:06 pm

The chances of a 20+ round overslot pick signing were slim anyways. Feels like the pick of Padgett is more a "hey keep us in mind in 3 years" pick.

I think I'm intrigued what happens with Twomey. Another lefty "pitchability" guy, but with a good changeup, some downward action on his 2-seamer. If he gets a breaking ball going, could be interesting.

I really wonder if the Cubs, after Happ, looked at the board and the amount of slot money, and said, there really isn't much and it's much better to just add some depth and shoot hard for upside in the international market. It's always important to have some system guys in place to help, and sometimes, some of them may surprise. Happ, at the end of the day, is the key, for the obvious (he's the 1st round pick) and for the fact that a lot of the guys that he's somewhat similar to in our system (McKinney/Zagunis come to mind, if Happ moves to LF) may end up being trade bait this summer, and Happ could conceivably fill any system gaps that may emerge. I hope Happ can play 2nd, and I hope he goes to South Bend to play next to Torres, as that would be a fun experiment to see.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Little Slide Rooter » Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:46 pm

They way I see it, unless we're talking a signability gamble such as Maples, beyond the first 5 rounds (and that's being very generous,) everything's a humongous crap shoot. Is there really that thick a line separating the #150 draft prospect from the #300? With high schoolers in the mix, you're essentially paying for the right to sculpt the raw talent of a kid that may be out of baseball before he's old enough to drink.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby craig » Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:59 am

toonsterwu wrote:With the way all these intriguing prep guys are dropping, it's fairly clear that signability was a factor. Looking at it with the knowledge that these guys aren't likely to sign ... this draft was ridiculously thin. It'll likely still turn out quality players, but man, it was thin.

Every once in awhile, a depth draft is needed. I imagine this draft will probably fill some holes in the system and provide some useful system pieces, and maybe a couple guys that reach the majors.


Don't think depth draft applies here. You get 40 picks, so you can take as many $100K college roster fills as you want any and every draft. Not much different this time, other than that This draft was college organizational/roster fillers, Kellogg, and the four $$ guys.

This wasn't a spread-it-around draft; they went all in on the four top guys. After they sign Kellogg and 24 other $100K (or less) college guys, maybe if you click you hit on one of those. Sometimes a Kellogg might turn into a James Russell/Sean Marshall, and sometimes a $100K guy might turn into role player. Maybe somebody will turn into last-year's Chesny Young or better, and reach high minors or even find a big-league role. Ryan Williams has reached AA, for $5K bonus. So commanding no $$ doesn't prove you can't get to AA or perhaps beyond. Maybe Berg will be the cheap senior niche guy who finds a useful role as a Roogy, perhaps in majors someday, or else for years in minors and Indy leagues. Maybe the next CBA they'll expand the rosters, and it will be easier for a team to carry a Roogy.

But every year there is chance to draft a bunch of $100K college guys, roster fillers with the hopes that one or two emerge as more. This is no different.

We just went more quality-over-quantity than usual. The four $$ guys are where this draft will sink or swim, from the perspective of the major-league team. Much simpler that way than usual.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Thu Jun 11, 2015 8:36 am

craig, that's what I meant by depth draft - a lot of "college organizational/filler" guys that can be seeded throughout the system, perhaps enough cheaper sign guys that get into the upper levels of the minors. I think sometimes we under-appreciate the necessity, if not the significance of "organizational filler" guys as it pertains to maintaining a healthy system, as they allow the top players to develop at a suitable. At the end of the day, though, this is a touch spin, because at the end of the day, the draft will be judged by the number of guys that make it to the majors (I argued a few posts back that 2010 really isn't that bad on account of Beeler/Jokish/Szczur/Kurcz, but even then, I'd be the first to recognize that it won't be considered a good draft in any way/shape/form).

What I would say is that, while every draft, you always take some "organizational fillers", we took, quantity wise, what seems to be more than expected (a couple other teams without huge pools "gambled" on several prep guys in the teens/twenties that probably won't sign), which does make me wonder if

a) They thought this draft was thin, and getting guys they know can fill a system was something they valued

and/or

b) They are placing strong emphasis on going hard in the international market and felt that they could utilize the combination of the two, draft and IFA, to have a rounded year in terms of new additions.

You are right, at the end of the day, it very well might be nothing but a product of the system leading them to go "all-in" on the top 4 guys.

_____

As a side note, Chesny Young isn't exactly a guy I would consider as a "organizational filler" pick in that, IIRC, he was well-regarded at one of the collegiate leagues ... Northwoods? Don't recall which one right now, but there are some 11th round on college guys that are picked that weren't well-regarded at any point. The guy in this year's draft I would compare to that would be a guy like Kyle Twomey. In all honesty, Twomey is actually quite fascinating and if we can get him signed, that'll be a nice pick-up there.

Thinking about it right now, it's quite possible we spent extra money on Day 3, but just not on HS kids (outside of perhaps Cresto). Twomey's a nice arm and I gotta think he's going to take more than what is essentially "spare change". Rose might cost a bit more than "spare change" as well - he was dinged up this year and could feel that going back to 3rd base and having a strong senior year could push him up. He's a young kid too, would only be 21 in his senior year.

_____

Sort of a separate side note, but Higgins profile at catcher sort of feels like it could be Caratini without the raw power. Of course, Higgins profile also sounds like a bunch of college catchers that never really pan out.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Named After Maddux » Thu Jun 11, 2015 10:44 am

In case anyone is interesting in signings, Yags (of PSD fame) has put together his webpage of signing info again this year. He's going to be putting in a ton of extra information tonight per his last post. Just a heads up, last year he had so much traffic to the website that it crashed consistently.
http://ccdt.webs.com/
Hopefully with more information coming out and SS starting soon we'll find out more about the signings.
Again, quality work by Yags. It's incredible the amount of work he puts into the page.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby CubsWin » Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:09 am

Vinestal wrote:
Deeg wrote:Finally an overslot guy - in the 26h round. Jared Padgett (Florida HS lefty) is a longshot to sign drafted that late, but the Cubs certainly should have some money and he is about a 4th-round talent. I sure hope all this extra money isn't targeted for Wilson, because I don't think he's worth it.

There was an article on his college site reporting he turned down 3rd round money from the Cubs already.

That was before the Cubs made their 3rd round selection, not after he was taken in the 26th round. He also said he wanted $800,000 which is only $69,000 more than than the 3rd round slot ($731,000) he turned down.

It makes me wonder if Hudson agreed to take slot and that's why he was drafted. It also makes me wonder if the Cubs were able to save $650,000 from the 6-10 senior signs and add in $150,000 in overage money if they could still get him.
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby craig » Fri Jun 12, 2015 11:48 am

I wonder how the mechanics of those pre-draft phone calls work. Area scouts who know the kid and his family are making those calls? McLeod makes them all? Madison? Every year we get reports of kids saying they've been called and team X was interested in them for Round Y but the player demanded dollars Z.

I wonder whether between area scouts and McLeod/Madison/Hoyer/Theo etc., whether the Cubs don't have 20 phone conversations going on at the same time with 20 different players? Between Monday night and Tuesday noon they called Padgett, AND Hudson, AND Sands, and two dozen other guys, and got their won't-budge price tags, and then go back and discuss who's the best value-per-dollar. Padget wants $0.8, Hudson $1.2, Wilson $1.5, Sands $1.2? Which are the best values per-dollar? And how can we get the most value given the dollars we've got? Padgett at $0.8 might be better than Hudson at $1.6, but Hudson at $1.2 is better value than Sands at same price and enough better than Padgett so that the savings on Padgett at $0.8 aren't worth it? But I really like Wilson! He's better value than any of those pitchers. OK, Theo, but I don't think other teams are going to take him yet at that price. I think he'll still be available for our round 4 pick at $1.5....

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Jun 14, 2015 3:00 pm

Sounds like Happ must have signed:


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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Sun Jun 14, 2015 4:56 pm

Hmm ... this is quicker than I expected (even though other picks are signing). Sounds like they had a deal in place. Wonder how this affects the rest of the picks in terms of money, and wonder if Happ getting out to Arizona quicker may lead to him skipping Eugene.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby davell » Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:09 am

Happ gets 3 mill, according to Callis. 351,000 under slot.

With the 5% overage, seniors in 6-10, and now this-if Hudson and Wilson take up that much extra, I'll be surprised.
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby bauermj » Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:37 am

CubsWin wrote:
Vinestal wrote:
Deeg wrote:Finally an overslot guy - in the 26h round. Jared Padgett (Florida HS lefty) is a longshot to sign drafted that late, but the Cubs certainly should have some money and he is about a 4th-round talent. I sure hope all this extra money isn't targeted for Wilson, because I don't think he's worth it.

There was an article on his college site reporting he turned down 3rd round money from the Cubs already.

That was before the Cubs made their 3rd round selection, not after he was taken in the 26th round. He also said he wanted $800,000 which is only $69,000 more than than the 3rd round slot ($731,000) he turned down.

It makes me wonder if Hudson agreed to take slot and that's why he was drafted. It also makes me wonder if the Cubs were able to save $650,000 from the 6-10 senior signs and add in $150,000 in overage money if they could still get him.


You may be on to something. $356k saved on picks 7 & 10; $351k saved on pick 1 = $707k + overage

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby craig » Mon Jun 15, 2015 10:50 am

davell wrote:Happ gets 3 mill, according to Callis. 351,000 under slot.

With the 5% overage, seniors in 6-10, and now this-if Hudson and Wilson take up that much extra, I'll be surprised.


I won't. Might end up with $0.1-0.3 left over at the end, but I expect that Wilson will take them very close to their limit.

I thought I heard that Hudson was about $350 over, or something like that. Basically Hudson will use up the Happ money, and Dewees is rumored to be slot. So, 1-3 composite right on slot.

Wilson will eat up all the rest, I think. I'm assuming overage and senior signing will enable him to get somewhere in the $1.5-1.2 range, and there won't be anything meaningful left.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:33 pm

If there is anything left, I think it probably goes to Rose and Twomey. I doubt (could be wrong) they make those two picks to start Day 3 unless they had a clear idea what it would take, and whether or not they could clear the money for it. I think craig's probably got the general gist right - Wilson probably eats up most of the savings from the senior signs, and they use the rest on Rose and/or Twomey.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby CubsWin » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:48 pm

Speaking of the college seniors the Cubs are likely to save some cap money on, 6th rounder Preston Morrison just beat a very good LSU team in the CWS. Here's a nice write-up on him and the game from ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/13078377/tcu-pitcher-preston-morrison-picks-right-postseason-first
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:53 pm

CubsWin wrote:Speaking of the college seniors the Cubs are likely to save some cap money on, 6th rounder Preston Morrison just beat a very good LSU team in the CWS. Here's a nice write-up on him and the game from ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/13078377/tcu-pitcher-preston-morrison-picks-right-postseason-first


Saw the game, he was very sharp. Located well and got ground balls, IIRC.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:03 pm


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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Tangled Up in Plaid » Mon Jun 15, 2015 5:18 pm

he knows how to pitch, thank god

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Tryptamine » Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:56 pm

Wow, I didn't think Kellog would get anywhere near that type of money. That's crazy for a guy whose ceiling is rotational depth.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby toonsterwu » Mon Jun 15, 2015 9:16 pm

He's a junior, though. I don't know if I had any expectations, to be quite honest. I simply figured he'd get near slot.

If there's any savings to go after guys like Rose and Twomey, it's probably with the seniors.

As a side note, tough one of Peltzmeier today, giving the walkoff 2 run shot. He did leave it over the plate, although it was tailing a bit, enough that you probably tip your cap to the hitter as much as you say it was a bad pitch.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Jun 15, 2015 9:45 pm

Any word on where Dewees is projected to sign at?
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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby UK » Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:31 am

Seen on Twitter that DJ Wilson signed with no released financials yet.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby UK » Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:39 am

Also 35th rounder Taylor Jones is headed back to Gonzaga and 40th rounder Dom Defense is headed to Norman, OK.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby craig » Wed Jun 17, 2015 4:58 pm

Rose signed.
Dewees is reported to have been straight slot deal.

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Re: 2015 Cubs Picks Discussion

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 17, 2015 5:37 pm

7th rounder Craig Brooks got $5,000 and 10th rounder Vimael Machin for $2,000.

That's $707,300 saved between those two and Ian Happ.


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