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Friday July 30 , 2010

Cubs sign Jason Marquis to 3 yr, $20M contract

I have been in favor of signing Marquis to a disposable contract. This isn’t it. Unfortunately, this market for pitching...

is such that even starters who struggled mightily in the most recent season have enough demand that my concept was just not tenable. On the whole, this deal could work out well for the Cubs. Marquis is a pitcher capable of putting up good numbers and keeping the team in the game for a large number of innings. However, I am not certain that he’s much of a better gamble than letting the kids fight for that spot with the DL crew.

What is certain is that the pitching staff for the Cubs is now very deep, though much of the quality can be challenged, especially in the rotation. Here is how I see things stacking up right now:

Pitcher
Projected Role
Contract
Status
DL Risk?
Options?
Zambrano
Starter - Ace
Arby eligible
Fairly Low
Lilly
Starter
4 years
Medium
Hill
Starter
Renewable
Low
Yes
Marquis
Starter
3 years
Minimal
Miller
Starter - Swing
1 year
High
Prior
Starter
Arby eligible
High
Guzman
Starter
Renewable
Medium
Yes
Marmol
Starter
Renewable
Medium
Yes
Marshall
Starter
Renewable
High
Yes
Mateo
Starter
Renewable
Medium
Yes
Gallagher
Starter
Minor League
Low
Yes
Ryu
Swing
Renewable
Medium
Yes
Cotts
Swing
Arby eligible
Low
Dempster
Relief
2 more years
Low
Wood
Relief
1 year
High
Eyre
Relief
2 more years
Low
Howry
Relief
2 more years
Low
Ohman
Relief
Arby eligible
Low
Wuertz
Relief
Arby eligible
Medium
Novoa
Relief
Renewable
Low
???
Rusch
Swing
1 more year
High


Key:

Green – Guaranteed major league contract / out of options / secured spot on team
Red – Either likely to start season on DL or very big risk of spending majority of season on DL
Blue – Likely to be in minors to start the season

By my count, that makes 15 pitchers who:  have guaranteed contracts; are out of options; or who have secured a spot on the team (Hill). I think this number will be at 14 to start the season with Rusch on the DL. It could either be down to 13 if Prior cannot start the year healthy. There are mixed reviews on the likelihood of that, but it seems certain that he’ll pitch at some point during 2007. His spot on the roster needs to be considered. I believe that Novoa is out of options, which means that he’s likely to be traded or cut at some point as the bullpen is looking very full without him. Miller looked to be healthy to end the season in 2006, so he gets the fifth spot in the rotation by default unless Prior is ready to go.

At this point, here is my best guess at the pitching staff to start the year:

  • Starters – Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, Miller
  • Relievers – Dempster, Wood, Howry, Eyre, Wuertz, Ohman, Cotts
  • DL – Prior, Rusch
  • Iowa – Guzman, Marmol, Marshall, Mateo, Ryu
  • Odd man out - Novoa
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