The big news is that Aramis Ramirez has re-signed with the Cubs, along with Kerry Wood. Reports are that both signed very team-friendly deals. Current reports have Aramis accepting a 5/$70M deal with a mutual option for a sixth year and Wood taking a one year deal with a low base and lots of incentives. These moves have definitely put the Cubs in a better position for 2007. Let’s take a look at where things stand and what work remains to be done. But first I want to comment quickly on re-signing Aramis.

I have very mixed feelings about the signing. There’s no question that we are in a much better position to compete in 2007 and 2008 with him than without him. That is particularly true since he seems to have signed a much below market deal. I will be enthusiastic about this deal if he did not receive a full no trade clause with the contract. In which case, I will love the production from him for the first few years of the deal and then suggest trading him before he declines. I am very glad that the Cubs did not have to do a six or seven year deal at more than $15M per year to get this done, though.

Courtesy of NSBB member HoopsCubs, here are the current commitments in 2007:

Let’s guess that we’re adding on $15M for Aramis and $3M for Wood. That puts current payroll at $60.63M. Then we need to add on estimates for the arbitration eligible and pre-arbitration players (estimates courtesy of NSBB member LeftCoastCubFan).

That brings the total up to $77.58. There are media reports that the Cubs payroll could reach as high as $115M this season. That would leave us $37.42M left to spend. The open positions are:

Let’s take a look at the offense first. In 2006, they had a hard time getting on base and hit with little power. That dreadful combination led to the third lowest run total in major league baseball. Adding a healthy Lee back into the lineup helps, but it is hard to project what he will provide in 2007. Even an optimistic projection would have him significantly below where he was at in 2005. But even his career average production adds to the offense when compared with Mabry and the other options the Cubs trotted out at 1B in his absence in 2006. Let’s be incredibly generous and say that boost is good enough to leapfrog as many as 10 other teams in offensive production (which would be a very significant boost, indeed, representing about a 50 run increase). That would still leave the Cubs with the 17^th ranked offense in baseball. Other significant additions will still be required to put the offense in the top third.

1. ???
2. Murton – RH
3. Lee – RH
4. Ramirez – RH
5. ???
6. Barrett – RH
7. Jones – LH
8. Izturis – Switch
   

The open positions are 2B and CF (or RF if Jones were switched to CF). Fortunately, there are good options available at both positions and the Cubs have a lot of money to spend. Realistically, the team could add a premier bat and another quality bat (and we’ll get to the pitching in a bit) and still fit under payroll. Let’s start by filling the premier position first, then fill the other spot with a quality bat.

Barring a trade for Alex Rodriguez or Miguel Tejada to play SS, which is very unlikely, the best bats on the market are Alfonso Soriano and JD Drew. Each player has plusses and minuses, though. Soriano had a huge year in 2006, but does not have a stellar track record of production. He will provide power without a doubt, but has not done a good job of getting on base throughout his career. Defensively, he is untested in center field and has the reputation of a butcher at second base.  Still, his performance in 2006 cannot be ignored any more than Derrek Lee’s breakout year in 2005 should be swept under the table. The big question is what kind of contract it will take to get Soriano. Reports are that he wants a contract similar to the one Carlos Beltran signed in 2005 for seven years and $119M.

The alternative big bat on the market is JD Drew. Everything about Drew is fantastic except for his ability to stay on the field. Whether that flaw is due to his physical nature, his “heart” / desire or luck, it is hard to commit a long term deal to a player with his injury history. He opted out of the last two years of his deal that would have earned him around $11M per year. The safe assumption would be that he’ll get at least a four to five year offer in the area of $13M / year this time around since he is somewhat less of an injury risk this time around than the last time he was on the market.

If it comes down to a choice between the two, Drew seems to have an expected performance / risk ratio. He also provides the Cubs with a left handed power bat to break up the foursome of Murton / Lee / Ramirez / Barrett in the middle of the order. Soriano is more comfortable in the leadoff spot and has produced significantly better in that spot throughout his career. That diminishes the value of his power since he will often come up with the bases empty.  He also has not proven to be the consistent on base threat the Cubs need to have in front of Lee / Ramirez.

Assuming that one of these two is signed to play CF, there are a very large number of options available at second base. Ray Durham is a pretty clear winner in this field if his contract demands are reasonable for a player in his mid-30’s who has a significant injury history. Given the nature of these things, though, that isn’t likely to be the case. He should be the #1 target, but if he cannot be acquired at a good price, then the team should move on to the next player. Although I am hoping that the rights to the next player have already been acquired. The next player on my list would be Akinori Iwamura from Japan. He has been a consistent performer in Japanese baseball for the past three years, is still reasonably aged and will be much cheaper than other options. The bidding for him has already finished, though, so hopefully the Cubs have made that move and won his rights.

On the pitching side…things are very messy and it is much harder to make clean decisions on what to do. There are two rotation spots that are certain – Zambrano and Rich Hill. Beyond that, it is anyone’s guess. Wade Miller has been re-signed and Prior will be back. What the Cubs will get out of those two is anyone’s guess. Then there are youngsters Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol, Angel Guzman, Juan Mateo and JK Ryu. The common consensus seems to be that the Cubs will acquire two free agent starters and the seven players listed above will be counted upon to fill a single rotation slot.

In the bullpen things are overflowing. There are now four spots locked down to players under contract: Dempster, Wood, Eyre and Howry. Whichever of Prior and Miller that are not in the rotation will be in the bullpen (assuming health, of course). Wuertz and Ohman are both deserving of their spots in the pen. Any of the five players listed above, plus David Aardsma, Roberto Novoa and any of the five young pitchers listed above could fill roles.

With all that being said, it comes down to the team needing to fill two starter spots. Current rumors have Boston winning the bidding for the premier pitcher on the market, Daisuke Matsuzaka with an enormous bid for his negotiating rights. If the rumors are wrong and the Cubs won his rights, that would lock down the #2 starter. But let us assume that the rumors are true. Then we are looking at a free agency class where the bidding will become intense for a pitcher whose main positive is that he stays healthy (Zito) and a pitcher whose main negative is that there are tremendous concerns about his ability to stay healthy (Schmidt).

To me, I just can’t see either pitcher being worth the risk. I think Zito would get eaten alive with home runs in Wrigley in the summer. Schmidt’s random velocity from game to game over the past couple seasons points to an imminent injury or performance decline.

I hate to say this, but given the current options on the market, I would go bargain shopping for pitching this offseason. Then I’d take my available payroll and dump it into the offense. I would trade Izturis to free up an additional $4M (I’d put Theriot and his superior plate approach at SS). Take the $41M and give $17 to Soriano to play second base, $13M to Drew to play CF. Take the other eleven and get a couple innings eaters who have upside and fill out the bench. Count on one of the seven options to step up and really grab another spot in the rotation (making one of the two acquisitions expendable by mid-season).

It goes against my nature to recommend a patchwork pitching staff. But given the internal options and the choices on the market, I think it is the way to go in 2007. Just make sure the offense will be able to get leads. The pen should be strong enough to bring the games home if we can be winning in the 7^th, 8^th and 9^th.