Ouch! The sky just hit me…

With the news that the Cubs exclusive negotiating period with Aramis Ramirez has passed without him being resigned by the team, many Cubs fans are feeling that the sky just fell. I’m going to change the argument a bit. I think the Cubs are doing the right thing by not signing Ramirez to a long term contract. Before people start thinking that this article is going to be an exercise in apologizing for management, though, let me say that the article will also be an indictment of the team’s ability to plan effectively.

First, why do I think it’s a bad idea to give Ramirez a long term contract? Let’s start the argument with an example.

A few years ago, Mike Lowell was a huge target acquisition for the Cubs. I remember warning at that time that guys with his profile have a tendency to fall off a cliff rather than having a gentle decline after their primes.  In 2003, Lowell appeared in his second straight all-star game at age 29 and was the single hottest name being bandied about at the trade deadline. Florida decided not to trade Lowell as they were making their infamous run after hiring Jack McKeon and Lowell + Lee led that Marlins team to a World Series title.

Again, during that offseason, Lowell’s name was a very common one in the market. As a pending free agent for small-market Florida, they had a tough decision on Lowell and Derrek Lee. Even with Miguel Cabrera on hand to take over 3B, they decided to retain Lowell instead of Lee. Lowell ended up giving them a very significant discount on what he would have received on the open market and they traded away Lee. Lowell rewarded Florida in 2004 with the best season of his career at age 30. But then it all went wrong.

In 2005, Lowell had the worst season of his career. He went from being a fairly elite offensive and defensive player to one of the worst in baseball. His OPS fell to .658. His defense that had once been stellar at 3B slipped significantly. He was shipped out of town to Boston after that season. In 2006, he had something of a renaissance in Boston, but he is no longer considered anything close to the same quality of player he once was.

So what happened? Nothing dramatic, really. He didn’t have a huge injury that you can point to as the basis for his rapid decline. I believe the reason is much simpler. History shows that players that lack athleticism age much more rapidly – particularly players at skill positions and players that battle injuries to the legs or back. Lowell had a couple of things going for him, though. He started off as an excellent defender at 3B and, by all accounts, had a tremendous work ethic.

This brings us back to the subject of the article. It is my firm belief that Aramis will be a DH in the AL by the end of whatever contract he signs now. And he may not even be a very good one by then. He has far too many risk factors to lock into a high dollar, long term contract with a no trade clause. He’s far from the most athletic player on the field. He has a long history of leg problems. He is widely regarded as having a poor work ethic. The only year he has worked hard during the offseason to get in shape was his contract year – which is not necessarily a good indicator of how he will behave during a long-term contract. Granted, Aramis is a much better hitter than Lowell was at his peak, so he has more cushion underneath his current performance level. But I still believe there is a cliff out there with Ramirez’ name on it. And given his lack of defensive prowess and his reported lack of work ethic, I think he’s going to lose his ability to play the field and his offensive production will very rapidly decline in his early 30’s.

In short, I would not want to be the one giving a long term deal to Aramis that contains a no trade clause.

Now, does all this mean that I am “excusing” management for not locking up Ramirez when they had the chance? Yes, actually, it does. However, I believe they have had their doubts about being able to get him locked up for a while now. If they didn’t, they should have been able to see this coming at least 12 months ago. Unfortunately for Cubs fans everywhere, they did nothing about it. They should have traded Aramis either last winter or this past summer if they are following the same logic I used above in not extending their offer to the length that Aramis wanted. They should have strengthened the team at other positions, knowing that they were likely to lose their cornerstone at the hot corner. If they wanted to lock themselves into paying big money on a player much more likely to age well, they should have invested heavily in Carlos Beltran two years ago.

Instead, the Cubs are sitting in a position where they have a lot of money to spend in a free agent class where nobody is deserving of that kind of cash. There is nobody out there that is a no doubt / cornerstone / “face of the franchise” / $100M player. Soriano is flawed both offensively and defensively. He’s also going to be 31 in the first year of his new contract. JD Drew has too much of an injury history and his own work ethic issues.

The Cubs are now in a horrendous position. They are reeling from a 66-96 season. They have one player in Derrek Lee who had a quantum leap in performance in 2005 after making an adjustment to his swing that was not on display in 2006 even before sustaining an injury that often diminishes a player’s future performance. There is one other player in Michael Barrett who is well above average at his position. But Barrett has his own injury history and catchers over age 30 are among the biggest performance risks in the game. They have one promising young player in Matt Murton. The rest of the offense is below average to lousy.

Even with Ramirez, the offense was among the very worst in baseball. The Cubs now have to get at least two big bats to reach an average offense. They could have avoided this foreseeable predicament. Unlike the mess on the pitching side, it was not injuries that put them where they are now. It is a lack of quality planning.

There is only one person to blame for this mess.