Cubs Reportedly NOT Offering Arbitration
According to reports released today, the Cubs will not be offering arbitration to Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg or Reed Johnson. Two of these decisions are very understandable. I think the Cubs will still try to sign Johnson, but do not want to be at risk of having to give him a raise through the arbitration process. They are very likely to cut ties with Gregg. However, the decision to not offer arbitration to Rich Harden is inexcusable (with one caveat).
Despite having a somewhat down year in 2009, Rich Harden is one of the best pitchers in MLB when he's on the mound.
- 3.39 Lifetime ERA (behind only Pedro, Santana, Oswalt, Peavy, Webb, Unit & Smoltz among active starters)
- 9.4 K/9IP (behind only Unit, Wood & Pedro among active starters)
- .633 win % (behind only Pedro, Santana, Oswalt, Halladay, Hudson, Unit & Cliff Lee among active starters)
- 1.237 WHIP (14th among active starters)
Harden's problem throughout his career has been staying healthy. However, he has made it through the last two seasons reasonably healthy. Now, the one caveat mentioned above is this: If Rich's arm is hanging by a thread and the Cubs know this, then I can understand the move. I don't believe that's the case since Harden has been able to take the mound the majority of the past couple years, but that would be a reasonable excuse. But only if the injuries are severe enough that Harden has no chance of signing a multi-year deal with another team.
Let's look at the risk/reward of the situation:
| Stays with Cubs | Signs with Another Team | |
|---|---|---|
| Cubs Offer Arby | The Cubs get one of the best pitchers in MLB signed to a relatively low-risk, one year deal. | The Cubs get a 1st round supplemental draft pick |
| Cubs Don't Offer | Cubs are free to negotiate any deal to try and keep Harden, but will likely have to go multiple years and full market value to keep him. | Cubs get nothing. |
If the Cubs offer arbitration, they either get draft pick compensation (which will significantly benefit the farm system and eventually the major league team) or they get to keep one of the best pitchers in baseball on a one-year deal. So even if you call Harden staying with the Cubs a "neutral" outcome (neither good nor bad), they still only have neutral or good outcomes. If the Cubs don't offer arbitration, then they really have no positive outcomes possible.
The reason the Cubs are in this position is obvious - the lack of discipline in spending has put the team into the position where they cannot take the risk of Harden being awarded $10+ M in arbitration. However, what has put them in this position is reckless spending on non-essential pieces of the team such as Miles and Grabow. Take those contracts off the team and taking the risk on Harden is that much easier.
So...every time Miles is grounding out weakly to second base or Grabow's tendency to allow baserunners catches up with him - just remember that the money paid to those players could have instead been used to pay one of the best players in MLB.
