Weak Areas Part 1-The Offense
The Cubs are a little more than two months into their season and this is the time where things really start to shake out. Numbers become a lot more stable and an early season slump has had time to be erased.
It's certainly possible that the Cubs won't be able to do anything at the trade deadline this year. They have the ownership transfer which is once again dragging its heels. Also, the Cubs spent money in the offseason between 07 and 08, at the trade deadline in 08, and in the offseason between 08 and this year. They are going to have to have one opportunity pass them by at some point in order to let the budget settle.
But just in case there is room, where is it needed? One area that it most certainly is not needed is the starting rotation. The Cubs have three starters who have been excellent this season, one who has been above average, and one who has been slightly below average. But that below average one is Rich Harden, who the team is unlikely to replace unless he suddenly went down for the season. And even if they did need to replace him, they still have Sean Marshall who was doing fine before one really bad outing and getting unceremoniously moved to the bullpen.
The area the Cubs have shown a problem in is their offense. What positions can the Cubs conceivably improve though? Let's look position by position here:
LF: Soriano is so far having his worst season by far as a Cub. After a hot streak to begin the season, he has been on a prolonged cold streak which has dragged his OPS down to .783. He is also still limping and the Cubs might do well to sit him for a few games. What they can't do though is replace him long-term, which is what happens when the player has around 100 million left on his deal. Soriano's numbers should improve as he has shown the last couple seasons that one two week hot stretch makes his numbers always skyrocket. We're just waiting for that stretch to come.
CF: This position is just fine. Kosuke's numbers have gone down slightly recently as everybody expected, but he's still at a .900 OPS with a .425 OBP for the season. That's fantastic for a CF. Reed Johnson once again has shown that he can hit left-handers to a clip of an .891 OPS so far.
RF: This is a tricky situation. Bradley still has the large contract and the expectations to produce. He hasn't yet and seems to battling several nagging injuries at once. It might be in the Cubs best interest to DL him for about a month and bring Jake Fox back up and let Hoffpauir/Fox/Johnson split time there. You'll have some defensive issues there, but Hoffpauir in particular has shown that he has pretty good instincts out there that can help overcome lesser range and a lesser arm. For the purposes of the whole season though, the Cubs will have to stick with Bradley and hope that he can find that groove once again.
3B: Oh, the fun of third base. It has been an absolute quagmire since Ramirez went down. I'm only going to talk about the people who replaced Ramirez in the lineup, not necessarily the people who replaced him at 3B (I'll leave the Fontenot talk for 2B). The Cubs have tried Bobby Scales, Aaron Miles, Ryan Freel, Andres Blanco, and even Jake Fox to fill that spot. For the most part, it hasn't worked. If there was going to be one area to trade for, this would have been it. But at this point, Ramirez is probably only a month away. Part of that month is going to be the DH games where the Cubs can afford to hide a player like Blanco in the 9 spot. The Cubs will just have to struggle at this spot in the lineup until Ramirez gets back and hopefully provides some stability if not the same production that we are used to having from him.
SS: Theriot is either slightly outproducing 08 or slightly worse than he was in 08 depending on who you talk to and how much they value OBP. I tend to go into the slightly outproducing 08 category, and Theriot is just fine here at SS. It would cost a lot to upgrade here, and it isn't worth it to displace Theriot even if you did shift him over to 2B.
2B: There has been a lot of talk about possibly replacing Fontenot. I think that talk is ill founded though. First, it is harder than people think to find a 2B who can OPS above 775 or so. 2B is often seen as a more offensive position than it really is.
Plus, Fontenot might actually be a good bet to provide that level of production himself. His OPS is up to .742 as his LD percentage has shot up the last couple weeks. His LD percentage is still much lower than his career in the minors and majors so he still has room to improve. He has certainly enough power to be a regular second baseman, walks enough, and has a swing that is tailored for line drives. In addition, his numbers would be even better if injuries hadn't forced him to play occasionally against left-handers, where he has a paltry .409 OPS. His OPS against right-handers is .818, which is certainly enough to keep him in the lineup. When Ramirez comes back, Fontenot should have less at-bats against left-handers and that combined with increasing that LD percentage should continue shooting his numbers up.
1B: Lee's resurgence has been so welcome to see. After a very tough April, Lee has been hot enough in May and June to bring up his OPS to the .788 level and to bring his OBP up to .355. With a year and half on his deal, Lee would likely be in the lineup regardless of how he hits, but he's showing signs that he will once again be a respectable first baseman. The Cubs also have internal options to replace him if he goes down both with Micah Hoffpauir and Jake Fox.
C: Soto has been one of the biggest disappointments of the 09 season so far. Most people expected him to take a step back from his teriffic 08 campaign, but Soto has struggled mightily both offensively and defensively. He has shown recent signs of coming out of it though. Two very long home runs and some singles spread out between that have started to bring his numbers up. It's going to take a lot more to make him a key part of the lineup again though. Koyie Hill has surpassed all expectations as the backup so far this year. Upgrading at catcher is almost impossible at midseason so even if the Cubs felt that Soto is never going to come around (which I don't believe) they are kind of stuck with hoping that the internal options work out.
The offense is certainly struggling. The Cubs lost Ramirez and had nobody adequate to replace him. Bradley, Soriano, and Soto are all struggling much more than was expected. Lee and Fontenot are doing better but still have a little ways to go.
Overall though, I find very little that can be upgraded. If anything, the Cubs would want to find a person who can play 3B and then hopefully also SS and 2B. Doing so could let them get rid of another one of the Miles/Freel/Scales/Blanco group and give them insurance in case Ramirez needs frequent rest when he comes back. The Cubs could try to find somebody to backup RF, but I can't see them finding anybody better than the in-house options. 2B doesn't appear to be a hole anymore as Fontenot should be able to hold it down when Ramirez comes back. C is a problem, but there is no real solution to it other than hope that the last few days for Soto continues. The Cubs don't need all of their hitters to perform to expectations, but they do need another one or two, and that is going to have to come from just waiting it out.
In my next article, I'll address what has also been seen as a weak area of this team: the bullpen.

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