Thursday May 17 , 2012

Zambrano to the Yanks?

For better or worse, the Cubs have finally traded Milton Bradley and can commence with other business. With that piece of business completed comes the rumor that the Yankees have inquired about trading for Carlos Zambrano. The Cubs should see if they can make a deal and radically restructure the team.

Why would the Cubs want to trade Zambrano when they are low on pitching talent at this point?

Here are the relevant parts of Big Z's contract:

  • 2010 : $17.875M
  • 2011 : $17.875M
  • 2012 : $18M
  • 2013 : $19.25M vesting player option

Carlos has been a good pitcher for the Cubs, but hasn't shown to be worth that kind of money in quite some time. Whatever measure you favor for evaluating pitchers, the glory days of Carlos are back in the days of Dusty Baker. Zambrano does not even show the durability of an ace any longer and his innings pitched have been on a steady decrease for quite a while, reaching only 188 IP in 2008 and only 169IP in 2009.

I believe the Cubs should ask for Phil Hughes and one of Arodys Vizcaino or Manny Banuelos.  This would give the Cubs someone they could immediately put in the rotation to replace Carlos and another arm with some upside.  The prospect could be negotiated, but Hughes has to be part of the deal to fill the empty rotation spot.  Heck, if we only got Hughes and the $73M in salary relief, it would probably be a beneficial deal.  I think Hughes will produce as well as Zambrano in 2010 while earning about $17M less.

The money saved could be used in many different ways. Here's a couple:

Jason Bay could be signed for RF (leaving Kosuke in center).  Other than his injury-plagued 2007, Bay has been one of the most consistent producers in baseball the past five years.  He will sign a more reasonable contract than Holliday and will likely provide just as much value.

The 2010 money could be pocketed right now for investment in over-slotting draft picks, international signings and player acquisition at the deadline. We could then use the money next winter on some of the stellar options available in next season's FA class such as Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee  and Jose Reyes. Okay, well, Joe Mauer and everyone else.

Personally, I strongly favor the idea of investing the savings from Z to fill the farm system in 2010 and then going hard after Mauer next offseason.  Z's contract would obviously only cover the first few years of what is likely to be a six to eight year deal for Mauer.  However, freeing up the salary to go after one of the truly special players in MLB while also filling the farm system and getting as good or better production on the mound seems like an easy choice.

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