There are a lot of Top 10, 20 and 30 prospect lists out there so I’m going to make a Top 25 list instead. Obviously, this list is very opinionated but I have seen most of these guys play first-hand for at-least a decent sample size of games and at the very least, have taken into account the reports on certain guys by scouts and also members within the Cubs organization. I also take into account the character and maturity of each player, because in my opinion, that does indeed play a factor in development. I do not list a ton of past numbers and stats for each player, but I obviously used those when ranking them. Last year, we saw the system produce a handful of players who look to have bright futures with the Cubs or elsewhere in MLB. I also think it’s safe to say that we’ve only scratched the surface as the depth and prosperity of the system could be at its highest point in quite some time. So, without further adieu….

1. Brett Jackson – OF L/R

Very rarely, do you see a guy with the quantity and quality of tools that Brett has. He tops my list because of his ability to pretty much do anything on the field. Classic five-tool potential. Offensively, could be looking at a 25-25 guy consistently and has established himself as one of the few hitters in this system that is willing to take a walk. He still swings and misses maybe too much, but is a gap-to-gap hitter that can hit lefties just as well as righties and the breaking-ball as well as the fastball. Defensively, he has a decent arm out there but has surprisingly terrific range and really is just a “natural” CF. Last season between Daytona and Tennessee, the 2009 1st rounder hit .297 with a .395 OBP and .888 OPS. He homered 12 times, doubled 32 times and tripled 14 times in 580 plate appearances. He is a charismatic, outgoing guy that really understands what being a Cub is all about, which Cubs fans will appreciate. Overall, Brett’s game really fits in to where the direction of the game is headed. He’ll be in Cubs camp but will likely start at Double-A.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: Mid-2011

2. Chris Archer – RHP

Although Brett is #1 on my list, I believe Chris has the highest ceiling in the organization. The only reason he’s #2 (and he bags on me about everyday because I told him I have him second) here is because he still needs to prove to me and everyone else that he can harness his command on a consistent basis. He has gotten better with it, but still has work to do. However, right now, that’s a big snag for any top pitching prospect trying to make it to the league. BUT, he has absolutely terrific stuff. Acquired in the Mark DeRosa trade in late 2008, Chris has a mid 90’s fastball that currently tops at 97 with a devastating slider and a much-improved changeup. The 22 year-old was the Cubs MiLB Pitcher of the Year and had a great experience playing for Team USA (with buddy Brett Jackson) this fall. Last season, he went 15-3 in stops in Daytona and Tennessee with a 2.34 ERA while striking out 149 in 142.1 innings. On top of all this, Arch is always willing to learn more, get better, and really is just second to none when it comes to character. There’s not one bigger Archer supporter than me out there, and right now, I see him as a top of the rotation starter for the Cubs, hopefully for several years, but will probably start the year where he finished it, at Double-A.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: Mid-2011

3. Trey McNutt - RHP

Unlike the first two, I have barely seen McNutt throw in person (just one start). But from everything I’ve been told, he’s the real deal. He made the unorthodox jump from Peoria to Daytona to Tennessee all in one season and was successful at each stop. A 32nd round pick in 2009, Kenneth “Trey” is out of the mold of several Cubs pitching prospects, past and present, possessing a mid 90s heater with some tight breaking stuff. He struck out over a batter an inning in his three pit-stops, notching a 10-1 record with a 2.48 ERA in 25 starts. The 21 year-old also probably starts at Double-A like the two I listed above him and could be a 1 or 2 starter at the ML level one day.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: Sometime 2012

4. Josh Vitters – 3B/1B R/R

Soooo many people are down on Vitters after another injury-plagued, inconsistent season in 2010. I’ll admit, he’s #4 on my list more because of potential than accomplishment. His best run came in the first half of 2009 with Peoria, where he clubbed 12 home runs in one month and was later promoted at mid-season to Daytona. Defensively, no one else besides one other (see Junior Lake later) needs more work, but getting some time at 1st base during the AFL should give him more versatility. Offensively, he’s overaggressive and rarely walks, which is an understatement. However, he makes a lot of contact and has extremely quick hands. Bottom line, the ball absolutely flies off his bat and he was starting to make strides at Tennessee before getting injured later in the 2010 season. And let’s not forget he was one of the youngest regulars in all of Double-A, at 20 years of age up until August. Quiet, nice guy that might not realize the pressures that surround a 1st round pick coupled with the Cubs, which may be a blessing. He’s still a project for sure, but when the kid is one, there are not much that are better.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: Sometime 2012

5. Brandon Guyer – OF R/R

Where is the love for Brandon??? The guy had one bad half of a season (beginning of 2009), and many people have written him off. Like Brett Jackson, he can really do anything on the diamond. Offensively, he’s a gap-to-gap guy with some pop and is blessed with very good speed and an overall knack for running the bases. Defensively, he can play all three positions and play them well. He’s older than most prospects on this list, but just recently has come into his own, finally getting over several nagging injuries that have plagued him at times during his young career. Guyer’s line at Tennessee this year was .344/.398/.588 which translates to a .986 OPS. He also stole 30 bags and was only caught 3 times. No typo in the last sentence, I promise. Also, the Cubs MiLB Player of the Year shows fantastic character willingness to get better. The 5th rounder from 2007 could be the LF of the future if it wasn’t for another High School term for Sori.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: Late-2011

6. Hak-Ju Lee – SS L/R

I saw Lee play a handful of times last year, and I witnessed pretty much what I had expected. Ridiculously quick to the ball at the shortstop position with plenty of range. According to Peoria voice Nathan Baliva and some of Lee’s former teammates at Boise and Peoria, he gets rid of the ball faster than any player they have ever seen. He didn’t put up the flashiest numbers offensively at Class-A in 2010, but did hit .282 with 22 doubles and 32 stolen bases, only being caught 7 times. The 19 year-old left-handed hitter also played for the World Team in the MLB Futures Game this past season (Brett Jackson played for Team USA). He probably won’t develop much power but could project as a leadoff man at the ML level one day.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: 2013

7. Chris Carpenter – RHP

To me, Carp is the third best pitching prospect in the system. Many people might have Jay Jackson ahead of him, but I’ll explain why I don’t later on. He can pump it up there from the low to the mid 90s, and can hit the mid 90s consistently if he comes in as a reliever. A 3rd round pick a couple of years back, he made the rare jump from Peoria to Daytona to Tennessee in 2009 (much like McNutt but a year earlier). He’s also a bit older than most people on here but was drafted out of Kent State as a 22 year-old. He still has a lot of kinks to get out of his delivery, but has a mature presence on the mound and could be pitching in Cubbie-Blue sometime this season. Whether he projects as a middle or back of the rotation kind of guy or a later innings bullpen guy remains to be seen. He’s been used exclusively as a starter in the Cubs system but has been coming out of the ‘pen in the AFL, where he was recently named to the AFL Rising Stars Game (along with Vitters).
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: Sometime 2011

8. Jay Jackson – RHP

I probably have Jackson just a tad lower than most. Most people at least have him ahead of Carpenter. But there’s a reason to the madness. While Jackson has just great stuff, his level of maturity is yet to be desired. Mid 90s fastball, variety of breaking stuff and a changeup gives him a nice arsenal. However, the one snag in his development has been character issues. In 2009, he was demoted to Daytona because of an off-the-field issue and later in the season moved up to Iowa at the end of the season instead of Tennessee, because the Cubs did not want to ruin the Smokies team chemistry, as they were making a run at the Southern League crown. This is just a microcosm of what has gone on with Jay Jackson. After a terrific first half in Iowa in 2010, he tailed off badly in the second half. He was never able to readjust to a starting role there after the Cubs experimented with him as a reliever mid-season. Keep in mind, he just turned 23 this off-season and has time to mature. If he does, the Cubs might’ve found a #3 starter. If not, we could be looking at a bust. I’ve been on the “trade Jay Jackson” bandwagon for a long time while his value was high, before everyone else had found out about his off-the-field issues.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: Sometime 2011 (possibly as reliever)

9. Welington Castillo – C R/R

Wely is another example of seeing his stock drop drastically because of one bad half. At the beginning of 2009, he struggled at the outset with Tennessee after finishing the 2008 season there strongly. Prior to 2009, Baseball America had him ranked as the #4 prospect in system. He finished up well in 2009, had a solid 2010 with Triple-A Iowa before getting the bump to the bigs near the end of the season. Despite playing somewhat sparingly, the 23 year-old backstop showed flashes of really nice play. He was touted as a defensive catcher but has become far from a liability at the plate. Even though the Cubs might not have a blue chip prospect at the catching position, they certainly seem to have some decent depth at it. He should get the nod to backup Geo Soto when the team breaks camp.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: Opening Day 2011 (Already made debut)

10. Junior Lake – SS R/R

Believe me, I cringe sometimes when I see Lake play just as much as one who has seen him does. He’ll frustrate you deeply by botching routine defensive plays and by never being able to lay off a breaking ball in the dirt at times. However, I think people forget how young he is. He turned 19 just before he started for Peoria on Opening Day 2009. In fact, he was scheduled to start the season in Boise that year with Starlin Castro in Peoria. However, Castro was so impressive during Spring Training that they had to bump him up a level to Daytona. As a result, Lake became the everyday shortstop with Peoria, even though he wasn’t quite ready. He hit nearly .250 with 7 homers but made 42 errors in ’09, and improved that to .264 with 8 homers and a .731 OPS but still with 41 errors in ’10. He isn’t a good basestealer yet but has very good speed. Defensively, he has terrific range with a plus arm. Offensively, he’s still as raw as can be but we saw a huge improvement from him in the second half of 2010. More over, other than Vitters, the ball jumps off his bat when he connects better than anyone else on this list. Potential earns him this Top-10 ranking. Lake will probably begin the season at Tennessee.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: 2013

11. Hayden Simpson – RHP

Now I haven’t seen him pitch, but then again, who has? After being surprisingly selected in the Cubs in the 1st round in last year’s draft, the 21 year-old has yet to throw one pitch in game action for the Cubs organization. This makes it very difficult to rank him so obviously he could be way high or way low at #11. But after talking with several people within the Cubs front office and system, it’s pretty clear that they are enamored with the kid. We’ve all heard the Tim Lincecum comparisons and how Scouting Director Tim Wilken has been known to pull a rabbit out of a hat, but this ranking goes beyond that. The Cubs feel extremely lucky that no one else found this hopeful “diamond in the rough.” The rest is well documented. Very nice fastball, quirky delivery, etc. Looking forward to seeing how he does in his first professional season in ’11, likely starting with Mesa or Boise before heading to Peoria later in the year.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: ???

12. Reggie Golden – OF R/R

Another person on this list I have never seen in person ha! Golden was the Cubs 2nd round pick in last year’s draft and we didn’t get much of a sample size with him either. The just turned 19 year-old had just 17 plate appearances with Mesa last year, hitting .333 with a double and a stolen base. He’s extremely raw but his labeled as a high ceiling type of player. Possessing good speed and power, Golden was a gamble by the Cubs that could surprise everyone by starting in center for Peoria come Opening Day.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: ???

13. Darwin Barney – SS/2B R/R

I think Barney gets overlooked sometimes because he’s not a great offensive player and doesn’t own the potential that some of these other infielders on the list do. That being said, he’s nearly as sure-handed as it gets defensively at the shortstop position. Obviously, with Castro anchoring that position for hopefully several years to come, we’ll see a lot of Darwin at 2nd base. The scouting reports on him have always stated that if he can find a way to hit adequately, he’ll be a ML player. His bat has been good enough to get by through his Minors career and even in his brief stint with the Cubs in ’10. Offensively, he still doesn’t walk enough and can be a singles machine at times, but he has time to get better. I know, I know, Cubs fans are probably saying right now “OH NO, Another Ryan Theriot!!!” Not the case though, as he is a fantastic defender that won’t be making mistakes on the basepaths. He may never be a starter at the ML level, but should be a valuable utility player for the Cubs. The guy is flat-out a winner, having won back-to-back championships at the NCAA level with Oregon State and winning a State Championship in high school before that. Unless the Cubs unexpectedly acquire a second baseman through free agency or via trade, Barney could be the platoon partner for Blake DeWitt next season if the Cubs don’t offer arb to Jeff Baker (please NO!).
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: Opening Day 2011 (Already made MLB debut)

14. Robinson Chirinos – C R/R

Oldest player on my list at 26, and also probably higher than almost any list out there. I love Chirinos, always have. I saw him for a whole season as a shortstop with Peoria in 2006, where he was one of the top defenders even then. His development has come slow, large in part to being switched to a backstop prior to the 2008 season. Defensively, he has a strong arm and has a great knack for calling a game. His pitchers love him for good reason. Offensively, he had an outstanding year, hitting a combined .326 with 18 homers, 28 doubles and 74 RBIs in stints at Tennessee and Iowa. Along with fellow Smokies catcher Stevie Clevenger, he was named to the Southern League All-Star Game. More than statistics, I’ve heard through many people and through his peers that he’s one of the smartest hitters around. Several Cubs Minor Leaguers, including top ones, often go to him for advice as he is known for his unique approach to hitting, focusing on the war versus a pitcher instead of just the one-pitch battles. Pretty much everyone I talk to says Chirinos would be in the big leagues right now for other teams, but is saddled behind Soto and Castillo for the time being. He should be the starting catcher at Iowa when the season begins.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: Late 2011

15. Rafael Dolis – RHP

Dolis is sometimes a forgotten Cubs prospect, large in-part because he had been in Daytona for seemingly forever. But he started his pro career early and is still only 22 years-old (Will be 23 on Opening Day 2011). He throws a very heavy sinker (can reach higher 90s) with late movement. After not pitching for the Cubs in 2008, he made 41 appearances between 2009 and 2010 for the D-Cubs before finally moving up to Double-A mid-season. There, he went 5-4 with a 4.07 ERA in 12 starts to close out the year. Even though he has been exclusively a starter with the Cubs, I see his future as a power-arm reliever that could help in the late innings one day. He’ll probably add to the loaded roster at Tennessee to start the year.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: Sometime 2012

16. D.J. LeMahieu – IF R/R

Another LSUer drafted by the Cubs in the early rounds, taken in the 2nd in the 2009 draft following a National Championship for LeMahieu. He was labeled a safe pick at the time, a gamer who does all the little things. He doesn’t have the greatest range, but is sure-handed defensively. Offensively, he has a solid approach and has shown the ability to be an excellent handler of the bat. He was solid in 2010, spending the entire year in Daytona and batting .312 with 2 homers, 24 doubles and a .732 OPS. However, this off-season, the Cubs are putting him on the same regimen as they once did with Tyler Colvin. They are trying to move him to 3rd base, and as a result, they have really put their efforts into bulking him up and making him develop a power stroke at the plate. That is why he is a wild card on this list. If all goes as plans, he also might start the year at Double-A.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: 2012-2013

17. Jae-Hoon Ha – OF R/R

If it’s one thing we know for sure, it’s that the Cubs have exasperated all the angles when it comes to scouting in Asia. Ha is another product of the prevalent presence the Cubs have there. In fact, a lot of people rank him higher than I do, but he sits right here for me until I see more of his production from a bigger sample size. After a mediocre start with the Cubs in Boise in 2009, Ha really burst onto the season with Peoria in 2010, batting .317 with 7 long balls and 46 RBIs in 309 plate appearances. He also posted an OPS slightly over .800 and recorded the biggest highlight of his young career, homering in a Chiefs game against Kane County at Wrigley Field in July ’10. Ha just turned 20 on October 29 and was definitely one of the more pleasant surprises in the system last season. He’ll likely begin the season in Daytona.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: 2014

18. Ryan Flaherty – IF L/R

I almost feel bad dropping Ryan “Flash” Flaherty this low, because I really like him as a guy. He has shown very good character since being drafted by the Cubs in the Supplemental round (#41 overall) in 2008. Unfortunately, I just don’t put his value as high as others because he’s a classic case of a “tweener” to me. He was drafted as a shortstop out of Vandy, but doesn’t seem to own the range of a middle infielder. On the other hand, he might not have enough offensive power to be a corner infielder. He’s been a slow starter in his first two full seasons as a pro, and turned it on in the later months. After a great spring in 2010, Flaherty made the jump straight to Tennessee from Peoria but struggled mightily out of the game. He was later sent back to Daytona, where he enjoyed a solid rest of the season. He has been hovering over the .300 mark with over a .400 OBP during the AFL. It is a luxury that he swings a left-handed bat, but he does have somewhat of an upper-cut swing, and to me he at most projects as a bat of the bench down the road. The Cubs need to find a position for him and hope his bat continues to progress.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: 2012-2013

19. Aaron Kurcz – RHP

I have never seen Kurcz in person but the Cubs hope they got themselves a steal in the 10th round of last year’s draft. In his first year in the organization, the 20 year-old righty was virtually unhittable at Mesa and Boise. Coming exclusively out of the ‘pen, Kurcz posted a 1.98 ERA in 26 appearances with 9 saves and an astounding 48 strikeouts in 27.1 innings. He will likely be the closer for Peoria in 2011 and projects down the road to be one of those signature power arms near the back end of the bullpen.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: ???

20. Alberto Cabrera – RHP

Cabrera appears just on the cusp of having his breakout season. Last year, he got off to a dynamite start in Daytona before probably being prematurely “upped” to Tennessee, where he couldn’t get anyone out. He does have terrific movement on all of his pitches and his ball comes out extremely heavy. Overall in 2010 between Daytona and Tennessee, Cabrera went 7-9 with a 4.24 ERA in 28 appearances, striking out 125 in 136 innings. He certainly has big league potential. He just needs to show more consistency on his path up as the maturation process keeps rolling. The just turned 22 year-old will likely start at Tennessee unless the staff there is just too crowded.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: 2013-2014

21. Chris Rusin – LHP

Maybe I don’t show Rusin enough love after the remarkable statistics he put up in 2010. I hope he proves to be better than his #21 ranking on my list. The 2009 4th rounder split last year between Daytona and Tennessee, actually pitching better for the Smokies at the end of the year. He posted a 3.36 ERA in 20 Daytona appearances and a miniscule 1.89 ERA in four starts in the Southern League. Between the two stops, he struck out 99 in 110 innings. The southpaw just turned 24 and could begin the year at Double-A.

22. Robinson Lopez – RHP

It can be very easy to pile on Jim Hendry for some of the trades that he has made. But in this case, it looks like he got good value, at least in theory. Lopez, along with two other pitching prospects, came over from Atlanta in the Derrek Lee trade. He was outstanding in his first year as a pro in 2009, and put up solid numbers at just age 19 between Class-A for Atlanta and Chicago. In 28 appearances including 18 starts, Lopez posted a 4.19 ERA and struck out 76 in 103 innings. He certainly is out of a different mold than most Cubs pitching prospects. He’ll either start back in Peoria or move up to Daytona to begin the year.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: 2013-2014

23. Marquez Smith – 3B R/R

Smith has been about as steady as it comes after another strong campaign in 2010. The guy just continues to hit just everywhere he goes, finishing the year with the I-Cubs with a line of .314/.384/.574, clubbing 17 homers and driving in 53 in 342 plate appearances. An 8th round pick in 2007, Smith never projects as a starter at the big-league level but could be a viable bat off the bench in the future. He’ll begin the season as the everyday 3rd baseman for Iowa and will try to avoid the fate of becoming a 4A player.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: Late 2011

24. David Cales - RHP

Cales is the only Chicago-born player on the list. After growing up a Sox fan, the right-hander was selected by the Cubs in the 24th round of the 2008 draft. Used only as a reliever, Cales has put up solid numbers in each of his first three seasons. He’s gotten off to terrific starts the last two years, only to fade later in the year after a promotion both years. He strikes out a bit under one per frame, but Cubs brass has been impressed with how quickly he’s moved through the system. The 23 year-old is currently pitching in the AFL and projects as a solid reliever hopefully sooner than later.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: Late 2011

25. Kyler Burke – OF L/R

I’m sorry, but I am NOT giving up on Kyler Burke just yet and that’s why he gets the final spot on my list. I know he had a horrendous 2010, and quite frankly, really hasn’t had a good Minor League career other than his MVP-type season in 2009. That year with Peoria, Burke put up a line of .303/.405/.505 which calculated to an OPS of .910 (if you’re not quick with the math). He also led the Midwest League in walks with 78 and doubles with 43. He was near the top with 93 runs scored and stole 14 bases in 16 attempts. He’s a very down-to-earth guy and is very mature for his age, making him very easy to root for. Unfortunately, he has been unable to string two good seasons together after batting just .212 with a .607 OPS in Daytona last year. Maybe I’m not 100% objective with this pick, but if you look at what he is capable of, maybe I am. He could start again in Daytona until he proves he can hit at that level. Defensively, he does an excellent job all-around.
Hopeful Estimated Arrival: ???

Narrowly missing the cut: Michael Brenly – C, Matt Cerda – IF, Steve Clevenger – C, Blake Parker – RHP, Kyle Smit – RHP, Logan Watkins – IF

I love the depth here. Again, this is just my opinion. I’m sure many will disagree, but I’ve been fortunate to see many of these guys on a regular basis and how they have grown. I’m looking forward watching them progress even more and hope that the organization has planted enough seeds with this depth that a good chunk of them will be contributing at a high level for the Cubs for several years.