One of the questions confronting the Cubs this offseason is how to reshape the roster.  Quite a bit of ink has been shed in the press that the Cubs are saddled with bad contracts and that they will not have a window to compete for several years.  The good news is that it simply isn't true.  The better news is that incoming President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein is giving signals that he wants to compete in 2012 while also building for the future.

Epstein talked during his press conference about every year in baseball being a chance to compete and that every chance is precious.  This is not what someone would say if they did not plan to compete.  He had every opportunity to come in and talk about needing to rebuild, lay the groundwork for future success, etc.  But he clearly positioned that the Cubs will be taking parallel paths of constructing a roster to win now and bulding the farm to win in the future.

So how can the Cubs compete in 2012?  First, let's take a look at where the team currently stands.  The numbers can be in interpreted in a few different ways, but the cleanest layout I've seen to date was from former NSBB'er HoopsCubs:

• Cubs have 5 players under contract: Soriano ($18.0M), Zambrano (18.0), Byrd (6.5), Marmol (7.0) and Marshall (3.1)
• Cubs have 1 player with a player option: Dempster ($15.5M) - his original option was for 14.0, but he deferred $3M in 2010, which would be split into 2011 and 2012; Dempster picked up the option Saturday, so he's on the team
• Cubs have a ~$3.25M team option on Samardjiza - let's assume they pick that up
• Cubs owe $2M buyouts each to Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Silva.

So far: 7 players at $75.35M

• Cubs have 6 players who are arbitration eligible.  Let's assume they bring back 5 and non-tender Koyie Hill.  I have my arbitration guesses and roles in parantheses:
• Garza ($8.5M, up from  5.95, starting rotation)
• Soto ($4.4M, up from 3.0, starting catcher)
• Wells ($1.75M up from 475K, starting rotation)
• Jeff Baker ($1.4M up from 1.175M, utility)
• Blake DeWitt ($1.0M up from 460K, utility).

So now we're up to: 12 players at $92.4M

• Next, let's assume they have 8 league minimum guys ($450K each on the 25 man roster): Castro (SS), Barney (2B), Brett Jackson (RF), Cashner (bullpen), Russell (bullpen), Carpenter (bullpen), Castillo (back-up catcher) and LaHair (utility).

So now we're up to: 20 players at $96.0M

• Next, let's assume they bring back Reed Johnson for a utility role at $1.0M and Kerry Wood for a bullpen spot at $2.0M.  I have heard Ricketts would like both back.

So now we're up to: 22 players at $99.0M

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Personally, I believe that DeWitt may be non-tendered or traded for a PTBNL.  I also believe that Reed Johnson will not be brought back.  That would bring things to 20 players and $97M.  Either of those spots could be filled internally with players like Ryan Flaherty, DJ LeMahieu, Tony Campana or others.  But that outfield spot could also be filled in more intriguing ways depending on how management wants to proceed.

I've seen estimates for the major league payroll to be anywhere between $130M to $150M.  If the payroll is at $130M, the Cubs are probably going to have to shed some salary to make the moves necessary to compete in 2012.  If the payroll is at $150M, then the Cubs will have tremendous flexibility to add pieces to compete next year and beyond.  For now, let's assume that the payroll is going to hold pretty steady at the major league level at around $130M.

The team currently has two positions open:  third base and first base.  The Cubs had a middle of the pack offense in 2011 and could certainly use an upgrade.  However, the real problem for the team came from the starting rotation.  The team still has all five pitchers from the 2011 opening day rotation on the team.  Many things have changed in the past year, though and only Garza and Dempster should feel comfortable in their spots.  Zambrano's troubles were well documented.  Cashner had injuries that cost him nearly the entire season. Wells had injury issues and struggled when he came back from the DL, though he settled in for the last couple months of the season.  Clearly, the club needs to invest in the rotation for 2012 if they want to compete, though.

So how to spend $30-35M in available funds?

Let's start at first base.  Theo talked about wanting to pay for future performance instead of past performance.  There are two huge FA's in the market that are going to demand enormous contracts - Pujols & Fielder.  Either one would be a perfect fit at first base for the Cubs, who do not have a quality internal option at first base anywhere near the majors.  In this case I'm recommending giving superstar money to one of the top 5 hitters of all time.  There's certainly a lot of risk there, but if you can't decide to make the investment in Pujols you probably won't ever be comfortable signing a star player.  Even his decline should provide very good production.

Other than that, I'm not really recommending mortgaging the future.  I'm hoping our new braintrust can find an undervalued innings-eater in the market and staff the back end of the rotation with him.  After that, I'm hoping that Hoyer & Epstein can make peace with Z and convince Demp to stick around for one more year.  That would give you Garza, Demp, Z, Wells, Shark, Cashner as inhouse options.  If you bring in a good filler-type guy there should be plenty of depth.  The trade market may be the best way to go to fill that last spot.  Danks would be a great fit, but I'm not certain how much Kenny would be looking for.  If the deal is there, take it.

1. Let Aramis walk and spend bigger on 1B & SP, use internal options or cheaper option at 3B
2. Trade Z getting some measure of salary relief, retain Aramis, spend bigger on 1B & SP; fill Z's #4 slot cheaply
3. Trade Byrd & spend on 3B, 1B, SP.  Cubs CF'ers ranked 13^th or 14^th in CF ops, iirc.  His production shouldn't be hard to replace, but we should find a taker if w don't ask for much in return
4. Find a taker for Soriano and eat up to 2/3 of the deal
5. Trade Marmol

My order of preference would probably be:  4, 3, 2, 5, 1.  I don't think we'd get good value for Marmol at this point, but I could be wrong there.  I'd also be concerned that it would push the team to transition Cashner to that role instead of getting him ready to move back to starter in 2013.

On the other hand, if we can find a team willing to take on a good portion of Soriano's deal, that's the obvious preference for me.  But I wouldn't trade him unless we could free up at least $5M.

Fundamentally, though, if we can execute any of these options, put Pujols at 1B and plug in the #2 spot in the rotation with a pitcher like CJ Wilson or Yu Darvish and I think the Cubs could compete in 2012 while setting things up nicely for 2013 and beyond.