Paul Sullivan reported today that Carlos Zambrano has signed with a team in the Venezuelan Winter Leagues and will pitch for them through the end of the calendar year.  That would give him about eight or nine starts in winter ball this year.  Sullivan points out that if the Cubs are looking to deal Zambrano, a good showing in winter ball certainly wouldn't hurt.  While I generally agree with that point, I'd argue that Z is pretty much a known commodity around the majors at this point and how he performs in winter ball probably will not change his value significantly around MLB.  I would also say that unless there are a lot of things he's done that haven't been made public that the Cubs should strongly consider bringing Carlos back unless they can get an unexpected return for him in a trade.

First off, the Cubs rotation currently stacks up like this:  Garza, Dempster, Zambrano, Wells, ?.

That last spot in the rotation could be Andrew Cashner, but he's likely ticketed to the bullpen or to Iowa in 2012 to regain arm strength after missing most of 2011.  The other internal options would be to stretch out Jeff Samardzija or go with a farm product such as Casey Coleman, Chris Rusin, Jay Jackson or others. The lack of depth in the rotation sunk the Cubs this past season and it would be a mistake to put the team in that position once again.

Randy Wells is also not a lock to provide quality starts at the #4 spot in the rotation.  Wells struggled with both injury and performance at times last year.  If Theo is serious about pursuing parallel paths in building the farm and competing in 2012, it may be difficult for the Cubs to put themselves in the position of counting on Wells for 180+ quality innings in the coming season.

So this would mean that if Zambrano is traded, the Cubs would likely need to pursue at least two additional starters for the rotation.  Unless a trade of Zambrano frees up roughly half his salary, it would be difficult to add enough to the pitching depth while also addressing the needs on offense.  Fundamentally, the Cubs would have to get enough salary relief in the trade to replace his likely production on the open market.  If Hoyer and Epstein can find a buyer willing to take on that much salary, then it could be a good move to make the trade.  However, even with his declining production over the past several years, Zambrano's offense adds enough to his overall value that it will not be easy to replace him for less than $5-8M with a free agent.  It would also likely take a multi-year contract whereas Zambrano is only on the books for a single season longer.

In the end, I think the best move for the Cubs is to keep Zambrano and try to make the best of the situation.