In the last article, we looked at the 2011 season and what went wrong with the Cubs rotation.  This time we’ll take a look at how to fix things for 2012.  All five starters from last year’s opening day rotation are still under contract / control for 2012, but only two of them are considered to be sure things to open 2012 in the Cubs starting five.  Depending on what the Cubs decide to do with Zambrano, there are needs for a #2 and likely a #4 starter, as well.

Sure Things:

There are two sure bets for the rotation:  Garza and Dempster.  Garza’s progress from last season sets him up as an ace for the coming years.  Dempster exercised his player option for 2012, which cements his place on the team.  Ryan is a solid #3 starter at this point in his career, but shouldn’t be counted on as the second best pitcher on a team that wants to seriously compete.

The Problem Child:

As discussed in the last article, Carlos Zambrano has had a number of performance issues to go along with his off-field problems over the past few years.  As a quick recap, Carlos has not pitched 200 IP in a season since 2007.  He cannot be counted on for major innings in the coming season.  He has also suffered from declining numbers as a pitcher, with increased walks and home runs and decreased strikeouts.

These declines have come along with a high reliance on a cut fastball.  If the Cubs feel Z can put the off field issues behind him…and they feel he is past his nagging injury issues…and they feel they can get him to use his more effective pitches such as his slider more often…then it may make sense to bring Carlos back as the #4 or #5 pitcher in 2012.

While Theo has done his best to talk about Zabrano being an asset to the team and saying that the relationship between team and pitcher are not beyond repair, the common assumption is that the Cubs will do their best to trade Carlos this offseason.  They’ll try to maximize the salary freed up so that they can apply those savings to replacing him in the rotation.

Internal High Ceiling:

It is fair to say that 2011 was Jeff Samardzija’s breakthrough season.  Not only was he able to stick in the majors all season long, but he ended up the season as a heck of a reliever.  He had a 1.26 ERA over the past two months of the season.  He struck out a lot of hitters all year long, but dramatically reduced his walk rate as the season went along (9.39 – 5.52 – 4.70 – 3.86 – 3.38 – 3.55).  He mixes four pitches that all showed as above average offerings in 2011 (fastball, slider, split finger, cut fastball).  He also has been relatively injury-free throughout his career and has a body type that seems fitted for a starter’s workload.  It is safe to say that Samardzija represents a high-potential starter if he can continue his progress and hold his velocity and command deep into games.  The risk with Jeff is that the switch to the rotation causes him to regress and give up the progress he made this season.  It also opens up a hole at the back end of the bullpen that will need to be addressed.

That brings us to Andrew Cashner.  The former first round pick has had many durability issues in converting back to a starting pitcher.  He was a starter for his first two years in college, then was a closer during the year in which he was drafted.  Since the Cubs drafted him, they have tried to very slowly expand his innings.  Unfortunately, he has yet to pitch more than 111.1 innings an any professional season.  He likely represents the highest potential of any arm that could be plugged into the rotation from within the system, but his durability questions are severe.  There are also questions on what would be the best way to get maximum value from Cashner going forward.  He could be returned to Iowa and build arm strength as a starter, he could be placed in the bullpen for 2012 or the Cubs could put him in the major league rotation.   All of these have risk associated with them.

One interesting idea floated on the NSBB forum was to “piggyback” Samardzija and Cashner in hopes of getting a combined 250 IP out of them in 2012.  What this means is that the two players would each pitch for 3-5 innings every fifth day.  They could either rotate which starts the game or one of them could start each time.  Each pitcher would be under a strict pitch count and the goal would be to get 7-8 innings from the combination of the two every fifth day.   It is very unlikely that the Cubs would take this approach, but the idea has a lot of merit.

Internal Low to Moderate Ceiling:

Randy Wells had a rough 2011.  After suffering the injury early in the year, it is likely that he tried to return to the rotation too soon.  It took Wells a while to get going, but it has been pointed out that he pitched significantly better to close out the season.  The Cubs would likely be fine with Wells in the #5 spot in the rotation, but it would be hard to count on him given the injury and performance risk after 2011.

Which is the real Casey Coleman?  The finesse pitcher who didn’t strike out or walk many batters?  Or the one who was able to strike out eight batters per nine innings – though it cost him his command of the strike zone?  Either way Coleman is a fine pitcher to have at Iowa in case of injury.  The Cubs will be in trouble if he is counted upon in the opening day rotation, however.

The upper minors should have much better pitching depth in 2012 than was present in 2011.  No matter what happens, players like Coleman, Rusin and others should be at Iowa to buffer against injuries at the major leagues.

Solving the #2 Spot with a Free Agent:

If the Cubs wish to compete in 2012, there is a desperate need for a #2 (or additional #1) starter on the team.  There are only two starters available on the free agent market that can reasonably fit that description:  CJ Wilson and Yu Darvish.

CJ Wilson is exactly what the Cubs need.  He has been a starter for two seasons after converting from reliever.  In each of those two years he has been among the best starters in MLB.  He got better in season two as a starter.  He would even provide the team with it lone left hander in the rotation.  Unfortunately, he’s going to be very expensive to acquire.  He is easily the best starter on the market with major league experience.  He has talked about how much he loves pitching in Texas.  He is being pursued by the Yankees, who need him as desperately as the Cubs.  The Cubs should absolutely pursue him, but the bidding may exceed his value.

The best starting pitcher in Japanese baseball history may be on the market this season.  Yu Darvish has a significantly better track record (and scouting profile) than Daisuke Matsuzaka or any other pitcher to have come from Japan to the US.  He’s built much more like a prototypical major league pitcher.   Again, the Cubs should absolutely get involved in the bidding to win his services.  The big question is how high the bidding will go.  Theo Epstein paid a $50M posting fee for the rights to then sign Daisuke to an expensive contract.  The Sox got burned fairly badly by that contract after Matsuzaka broke down in the majors.  The question here is whether that experience will keep the overall bidding depressed for Darvish or if the bidding will once again get that high.

That’s about it for ace or near ace caliber pitchers on the free agency market.  Either would fit the Cubs needs very well.  But the Cubs may not want to invest as much as it will take to get either of the two players.

Additional Free Agent Options:

After the big two, there are a number of other pitchers available.  None would solve the problems at the top of the rotation, but the Cubs may need an additional pitcher if they trade Zambrano.  It is also possible that one of these pitchers would be a much wiser investment if they could be had at the right price.

Edwin Jackson has long been a favorite of scouts, but his results have always lagged behind his potential.  He took positive steps in 2011 after working with two of the best pitching coaches in the game.

Mark Buehrle is one of the more consistent pitchers in the game.  He would not provide top level production, but he could be counted on for 200 quality innings.  Unfortunately, he has been outspoken in his disdain for the Cubs and would be very unlikely to end up at Wrigley.

Roy Oswalt is getting older and has injury concerns with his back.  He is still a good pitcher when on the mound, but he is certainly not the dominating pitcher he once was.  He would be an interesting option on a short-term contract, though.

Erik Bedard, Chris Young and Brandon Webb are options if the team wants to sign a pitcher to a one year deal to prove their health.   They cannot in any way be counted upon to provide 180+ innings next season, though.

Other free agents include Hiroki Kuroda, Javier Vazquez, Bruce Chen, Jeff Francis, Joel Piniero, Chris Capuano, Bartolo Colon, Paul Maholm and a few other Japanese pitchers.  Any of these pitchers could be brought on board to fill the bottom end of the rotation if Zambrano is traded.

Trade Targets:

A trade market for starting pitchers is starting to take shape.  Atlanta has firmly put Jair Jurrjens on the market.  Unfortunately, Jurrjens peripherals do not support him being able to sustain the level of performance he has had to date.  The market will probably overprice him due to his ERA.

Oakland has put most all of its team on the market until they can sort through their stadium issues.  Trevor Cahill or Gio Gonzalez would be a good fit for the Cubs rotation if they can be had at a reasonable price.  However, the Cubs likely do not have the upper level prospects to swing the deal at this time.

San Francisco has made it known that Jonathan Sanchez is available.  He is an enticing option with tremendous potential.  However, his control issues are very likely to limit his ceiling.  If he could be had at a reasonable price, he could be a better option to fill the bottom of the rotation than that final list of free agent pitchers, though.

Summary:

Depending on what the Cubs do with Carlos Zambrano, they will need to acquire one or two additional pitchers this offseason.  The ideal solution for another pitcher at the top of the rotation would be CJ Wilson, but the bidding may become too high.

If the Cubs move Zambrano, they will likely need to go outside the organization to fill the fourth spot in the rotation.  There would be a number of good options through free agency or trade for this spot.

The bottom of the rotation will see fierce competition for the last spot amongst Wells, Samardzija and Cashner.