The Case for Pujols / Fielder
There has been a lot of talk in the media that the Cubs should not pursue Fielder or Pujols. The arguments tend to go like this... "The Cubs have too many holes for one guy to fix." "The Cubs won't be ready to compete for another 2-3 years so it would be a waste to sign a big free agent." "The Cubs farm system is "barren" and management should focus on rebuilding the core from the ground up." While these arguments sound reasonable and have some basis in fact, in the end they just don't hold water.
Let's take a look at the arguments against signing an impact player first.
"The Cubs have too many holes for one guy to fix."
This is true. But the Cubs aren't limited to one move this offseason. It is possible for them to add one of the elite 1B and also add a #2 starter. They would still have the resources to plug the gap at 3B and add to the OF depth, as well. That is pretty much the complete list of holes on the team. If the Cubs were to add something like Fielder / Darvish / Cespedes, they would most certainly be competitive in 2012 and all of those guys would be in or near their prime throughout the duration of their contracts.
"The Cubs won't be ready to compete for another 2-3 years so it would be a waste to sign a big free agent."
As seen above, the Cubs certainly have the resources to compete right away. They would still have resources available to be able to simultaneously invest in international free agents and in the draft to build the farm system.
"The Cubs farm system is "barren" and management should focus on rebuilding the core from the ground up."
This one and the one above typically mean that we should wait until we get some impact players from the farm before investing in free agents.
One of the flaws in the "wait until the farm system is churning out players" philosophy rests in how the farm system is currently composed. Those in favor of waiting seem to think the farm will be popping out impact players in 2-3 years. That simply isn't likely to be the case. There are few impact players in the system at all, however there is a good pipeline of players that will be ready to fill roles on the team cheaply over the next several years. The Darwin Barney's of the world may not make huge contributions, but having them available to fill roles in an adequate fashion frees resources to invest in top line talent.
Getting back to the farm's top end talent for a minute: The potential impact guys are far and few between in this farm system. I would argue that there isn't a single impact pitcher anywhere in the entire system (unless someone takes a huge jump). For position players, Baez is probably the most likely impact guy at the and he's at least three years away. If you're looking for the new braintrust to scout, draft, sign and develop players, you're probably looking four years down the road before they reach the majors.
Now, just having these guys reach the majors doesn't mean they will be impact players at that time. They will likely need a minimum of 2-3 seasons in the bigs before they are ready to be part of the core of a championship team.
If we build purely from within, it is going to be a minimum of 5-7 years before we would be ready to sign the big free agents to "put us over the top". If we want to compete any time in the near future, it would be best not to wait for a bunch of impact players from the farm as a signal to start investing in the top line free agents.
On the other hand:
The Cubs have the resources to add enough to the current base to be competitive in 2012 and rebuild the farm at the same time. That is why Theo Epstein talked about pursuing parallel paths in his initial press conference. We have a huge hole at first base and there are two elite first basemen on the free agent market. Either one would provide a presence in the middle of the order that the Cubs haven't had since Sosa. Adding in Castro and Soto gives two other well above average bats in the lineup. Adding another OF such as Yoenis Cespedes or Grady Sizemore in place of Byrd or Brett Jackson would give the team the potential for a well above average lineup. Also acquiring a #2 starter would make this team among the favorites to come out of the NL next season.
Even if we do not end up adding enough other pieces to compete in 2012, these guys aren't signing one year contracts. Our franchise 1B would be around long enough to build a team around him while he's still contributing at a very high level. If nothing else, signing one of those two players would ensure that the team doesn't reach too low a depth while a new core is built.
All that said, there are valid arguments against signing Pujols and Fielder. They are both huge risks to be unproductive at the end of their contracts. Very few contracts of this magnatude have worked out well in the long run for the team. If avoiding the elite first basemen on that basis is argued, then that is a very reasonable position to take (though I'd personally disagree). However, suggesting that the "team isn't ready" for one of those players is hogwash.
Let me know if you disagree in the comments below.
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