How Much to Offer Pujols?
In the last article, it was argued whether or not one of the big free agent first basemen should be pursued (they should). The natural next question is how high the bidding can get before it doesn't make sense any longer. This article will show that the Cubs should pursue Pujols as long as the total value of the contract stays below $230-250M.
Intro:
First, about the potential contract. The long held rumor is that Albert was looking for a 10/$300M contract going into 2011. After the worst year of his career this past season, he's not going to get that. The offer he has in hand from St. Louis is rumored to be in the neighborhood of 9/$200M. That will be used as a baseline for evaluation in the article.
The method which will be used to arrive at that number is to look at the most comparable players through age 31 for Albert, then look at how those players aged. It's worth spending a few words up front to talk about the risks that are involved in signing a player of this age to a long-term contract. The two obvious ones are a decline in perfomance and injuries shortening the player's career. As it turns out, the first risk is fairly quantifiable and the second one is much more difficult.
The metric that will be used for the comparisons is wOBA. This metric represents a rate measure of a player's offensive contribution. I limited the comparison to offense because of the difficulties in comparing a first baseman to some of the great CF's of all time in Griffey, Mantle and Mays. I also used a rate metric instead of a counting stat such as WAR to focus on performance changes for the players instead of the playing time reductions due to injury. I wanted to reduce the impact of injuries because the medicine and conditioning of the eras involved is so dramatically different.
The Comps:
Jimmy Foxx:
Jimmy Foxx was one of the all-time great players. Before Alex Rodriguez broke the record, he was the youngest player in baseball history to reach 500 home runs - a record he held for 68 years. Unfortunately, Foxx declined precipitously at age 34. The reason for the steep decline is rumored to be one of drinking problems and severe sinus issues.
While Foxx looks like an extreme cautionary tale, his story also highlights some of the mitigating factors in these comparisons. The first of those is the advances in medicine since the playing days of most of Albert's most comparable players. It is unimaginable that sinus issues would derail the career of a player in this day and age. We'll also revisit this same issue when we talk about some of the injuries that have shortened the careers of other greats.
The second rumor of drinking issues is another reason that Pujols is a good target for a lengthy contract despite his age. By most every account, Albert has a nearly spotless makeup and very few concerns about him having issues along the lines of the ones that derailed the careers of Foxx, Manny Ramirez or others.
Ken Griffey, Jr.:
Comparisons between Pujols and Griffey are difficult, at best. Pujols has been a better hitter in most every year of his career up through age 31, whereas Griffey also provided great value on defense in CF. Griffey was much more athletic than Pujols, which would normally lend itself to longevity. However, Griffey often put himself in harm's way on the field by crashing into walls, other outfielders and the simple exertion of covering the ground he did in center field. The second half of his career saw a steady decline in his rate stats and an even more precipitous decline in counting stats as the injuries took their toll.
I do not feel Griffey is a good comp for Pujols. First off, Griffey was already having some of his leg issues by age 31. Secondly, because of the rigors of his position on the field and how he played it, those leg injuries became more and more serious as time went on.
Griffey does provide a cautionary tale for signing Pujols, though. Not only has Albert had some injury issues of his own that are somewhat troublesome, but the pattern heading into the contract has similarities, as well. Griffey entered his age 32 season having declined for five straight years. While Albert's decline has only lasted three years, it is certainly a very strong concern given what became of Griffey's career after that stage.
Frank Robinson:
Robinson is a great comparison for Pujols. While Pujols has been a better offensive player to this point in their careers, they have had a very similar profile to this point. They were both reasonably athletic corner infielders. The comp is a very natural one.
Robinson's career going forward paints a pretty favorable picture for what Pujols could do from here on. The average wOBA of his age 29, 30 and 31 seasons was .424. Over the next eight seasons, he was always within 15% of that number, with his low mark being a .362 at age 36. In all, he averaged a bit over 92% of that .424 over those eight seasons (.391).
Hank Aaron:
Hank Aaron is everyone's best case scenario when it comes to aging. He was simply a better player in the second half of his career. Pujols has been a significantly better player through age 31, but even the most optimistic projection will put him short of Aaron's age 32-42 seasons.
Other than the fact that getting better with age is indeed possible, I don't think much can be drawn from this comparison.
Lou Gehrig:
Lou Gehrig was a phenomenal baseball player. His performance at age 35 and after tells us very little about how to project Pujols, though. Unless Albert develops a life-altering disease in the next few years, this is one comparison that can be tossed for projection reasons.
One thing to note at this point, though, is the caliber of players Pujols is most similar to through age 31. Other than Ruth and Williams, this is pretty much a who's who of the inner circle of the hall of fame hitters. There is a lot of room to decline from Albert's current status in the game and to still provide great value in his next contract.
Mickey Mantle:
Mantle is one of the players who would have benefitted tremendously playing today's game. At that time, injuries to his legs ended his career at age 36. Could he have played longer and more effectively with today's options for surgery, rehab and conditioning? Almost certainly. How much longer and better? It is impossible to say.
A quick note on that blue line that appears in all the graphs. That line represents the average performance of all players of that age. Some of the attentive readers may have been noting something unusual about that line...it actually rises pretty consistently through age 36 and holds pretty steady even through age 42.
That could easily be taken as an encouraging sign for projecting a player's value as he ages.
Unfortunately, using it in that way would be erroneous. The reason is that only the better players "survive" to keep playing at older ages. The poorer players get weeded out before they reach their 30's. The fact that the line stays relatively constant as the lower performers start to get excluded means that the players remaining in the study decline in performance as they age. The right way to look at that line would be to look at the players who played until age 36 and how their composite careers trended over time while excluding the players who didn't play that long.
Mel Ott:
Mel Ott is one of the most overlooked greats in baseball. The first NL player to reach 500 home runs, he did that at a time when the baseballs used in the NL and AL were actually different. The NL averaged 21% fewer HR during his career and peaked at 41% fewer HR. Injuries effectively ended his career at age 36, though he tried to play through it to little success at age 37.
Again, a potential cautionary tale, but one which is diminished given the resources of the different eras.
Juan Gonzalez:
Pujols was a much better hitter at most every age when compared to Gonzalez. JuanGone simply didn't have as much margin for decline as Albert. Add in allegations of PED abuse, lousy makeup, preexisting injuries going into age 32 and other isues and Gonzalez does not tell us much about how Pujols is likely to perform in years to come.
Willie Mays:
Mays is another player who was very dissimilar to Pujols. One of the great defensive CF's of all time, Mays was certainly much more athletic than Pujols. That would generally help a player age more gracefully. Mays was no exception to that rule. Though he wasn't the player from ages 36 - 42 that he was in his younger years, he certainly provided his teams with good production and even had a late career resurgence at ages 39 and 40.
Manny Ramirez:
Manny is the most contemporary player to Pujols in this comparison. As such, he's the player who had the most similar access to modern medicine and conditioning. His aging profile helps show the benefit of playing in this era, too. Manny held his offensive value exceptionally well through age 38.
Where Manny becomes a tough comparison is that Manny was, well, Manny. Issues with his makeup forced him to miss time later in his career. PED usage influenced his numbers in unknown ways. He suddenly retired from the game after 17 at bats in his final season because he apparently lost the motivation required to play the game at a high level.
Even with all of those factors, as a conteporary to Pujols he still represents one of the closest comparisons available. On the whole, Manny is a reason to be pretty optimistic about what Albert could do as he ages.
Additional Considerations
Several issues were touched upon during the comparisons that deserve reinforcement.
On the plus side of why Albert is a good bet going forward are his athleticism, his durability and his makeup. While Pujols will never be confused with Juan Pierre on the basebaths, he has shown the ability to consistently steal around 10 bases per year at a success rate. Combined with his excellent defense at first base and it highlights that he is athletic enough to age well. He has also been extremely durable throughout his career to date having missed five games or fewer seven times in his career and never missing more than 19 games in a single season. He also has a personality / makeup that is amongst the best in baseball. Not only is he very unlikey to go off the reservation to end his career like Fox, Gonzalez and Ramirez, but he has been a big asset to his community through his foundation efforts.
There are several warning signs that shouldn't be ignored, though. The biggest of these is the three straight years of decline which finds him with the lowest wOBA and WAR of his career in 2011. Projecting his value going forward depends heavily on whether this is considered a temporary dip or if 2011 alone is used as the basis of projection going forward. Additionally, even though he has been very durable throughout his career, he has been prone to many small injuries such as plantar fasciitis and shoulder issues. Those small injuries are likely to add up and start to have an impact as he ages.
In part two of the article, I will project Albert's value going forward and reach a conclusion about what types of contract offers would make sense for him.
