Scott Boras is a miracle worker. Just as fans across the nation began to be convinced that Prince Fielder might be forced to take a short term contract with their favorite team, news broke that the Detroit Tigers had signed Prince Fielder to a nine year, two hundred and fourteen million dollar pact. The initial reaction by most Tigers fans seems to be elation… but how happy should they be, really?

There are lots of reasons to think this contract is a poor decision. And I’m going to cover them all.

The Weight

Fielder comes in listed at 5’11” and a hefty 275 pounds. As Rob Neyer astutely pointed out, that’s an extremely unique physique, with no other players under six foot ever weighing so much. But what if we take a look at the closest possible matches? Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs has done just that. His results? Heavier players tend to peak earlier. They also decline sooner and at an accelerated pace compared to their normal-sized counterparts. Given everything we know, despite being merely 27 years old, Fielder is likely at the tail end of his peak already. He’s probably only going to get worse, rather than better.

The Performance

Prince Fielder is a very good hitter. His wOBA ranks the last 5 years have gone 10^th, 50^th, 3^rd, 19^th, and 5^th. His power has alternated in even and odd numbered years, but he’s very obviously a great hitter most of the time. Unfortunately for Tigers fans, defense and baserunning also matter… and Fielder can’t do either.

Over the last 5 years, Fielder ranks 301^st in defensive value by UZR. That’s out of 332 players. He doesn’t fare any better by any other metric – DRS, Total Zone, and the Fans Scouting Report all have him ranked as the worst 1B over that timeframe. Most metrics seem to indicate that he costs his team somewhere around an average of 6 or 7 runs per season with the glove.

On the bases, Fangraphs ranks Fielder dead last amongst that same 332 player sample over the last 5 years, with a total contribution of -27.8 runs. That’s about 5.5 runs per season he costs his team on the bases.

Basically, you can subtract about 12 or 13 runs right off the top of Fielder’s offensive performance. When you consider that Fielder was about 50 runs above average with the bat least season, that’s a quarter of his value he’s giving right back.

So what all does that add up to? His Fangraphs WAR rankings the last five years have gone 27^th, 107^th, 10^th, 64^th, and 24^th.

When his power shows up in full force, he’s one of the top 25 players in the game. When the power doesn’t show, he’s pretty replaceable. On the whole, he’s approximately a 5 win player… which is all star level, but not MVP caliber.

The Contract

Prince Fielder just received the fourth richest contract in the history of baseball. Only Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols have ever been guaranteed more money. Alex Rodriguez has eclipsed Fielder’s best season (6.4 fWAR) nine times in his career. Pujols has also eclipsed that number nine times. Fielder obviously isn’t in a class with either of those two. But maybe he can be worth the money anyways?

Dan Szymborski ran a ZiPS projection and came up with a projected value of $153 million. Dave Cameron came up with a projected value of $156 million. Ryan Campbell had a somewhat rosier projection, with $162 million through just the first seven years of the contract. But no matter how you cut it, he’s not worth that sort of money. And with the weight concerns, he’s certainly not worth handing out nine years… especially when he doesn’t really fit the current roster needs of the team.

The Fit

The Tigers already have a better option at first base in Miguel Cabrera. They also lack a long term opening at DH, with Victor Martinez under contract through 2014 at a cost of more than $12 million per season. Martinez is likely to miss all of 2012 with an ACL tear. The Tigers could conceivably play one of Cabrera/Fielder at DH in 2012 at least, but instead have decided that they would rather play Fielder at 1B and Cabrera at 3B. This is a bad idea.

Miguel Cabrera played 3B through most of his early career in the majors. However, he hasn’t touched the position since the first 14 games of 2008, after which the Tigers decided he wasn’t good enough defensively to handle the hot corner.

That’s right. The Tigers pulled Cabrera off 3B because he was poor defensively. Four years later and significantly heavier, they’re going to toss him back out there.

It was the right decision to pull him off 3B in the first place. UZR hates him less than most, but still saw him as a below average defender. DRS and Total Zone saw him as a complete disaster in the field, costing his team nearly 25 runs over the last two seasons he was manning the position.

We may be about to see one of the most hilariously bad fielding seasons in recent history. And with the spacious LF in Comerica and Martinez slated to return to the DH role in 2013, there’s really nowhere else to move Cabrera unless the team dumps Martinez to another team for a bag of balls.

And that’s without really getting into the fact that players moving up the defensive spectrum have increased likelihood of injuries.

The Summary

The Tigers did make themselves better in the short term with this move. But it’s not as simple as just adding his bat. You have to subtract Cabrera’s defense for playing out of position. All things considered, they’re probably about 3 wins better next year. As for the long term… the Tigers just added a guy who can’t run, can’t field, isn’t projected to age well, is barely worth the average annual value of his contract now… and this contract will pay him like an inner-circle Hall of Famer for the next nine years. That’s a hefty price to pay, and one I’m glad the Cubs avoided.

That said, flags fly forever. Mike Ilitch is going for it. And while the last half of Fielder’s contract will be an albatross that will make things significantly more difficult for the Tigers to compete, the run the Tigers can make with Verlander and Cabrera still on the team will be an exciting time for Tigers fans.