You'll have to forgive the uninspired title. It was all I could do to avoid making a bad "a byrd in hand" pun.

When the Cubs first signed Marlon Byrd my father asked me what kind of player he was. I responded with something to the effect of “He’s just a pretty average player with a pretty average skillset across the board. He won’t do enough to get you too excited and he won’t do too much to piss you off.”

Marlon Byrd has been somewhat of a pleasant surprise for me. In his first season with the Cubs, Marlon Byrd posted a career best 4.4 fWAR on the basis of some unexpectedly good defense and a slight bit of luck on batted balls. He was the team’s lone All Star representative. And just like that, he had justified the entire cost of his contract.

His 2011 season got off to a less than auspicious start. Since-departed rookie manager Mike Quade began the season with an ill-fated experiment of placing Byrd third in the batting order. Byrd never could adjust to that role, posting a .667 OPS through April while attempting to be a run producer. Upon moving lower into the lineup he recovered nicely, posting an OPS of .924 in May.

On May 21, Byrd was hit in the face by an Alfredo Aceves fastball. He would miss the next six weeks with multiple facial fractures. During the first three weeks of his recovery, Byrd complained that the doctors would not allow him to do any conditioning work at all.

Byrd recovered nicely however, and returned to the Cubs lineup in early July. He would go on to post a very useful .865 OPS. Due to some poor conditioning after the incident though, he would tire in August and September while struggling his way to a 2.0 fWAR season.

(For the uninitiated, approximately 2.0 fWAR is indicative of a league-average starter given full playing time. Byrd pulled that off in 75% of a season during which his face exploded and he dealt with other issues, which is impressive.)

Marlon Byrd has averaged 3.3 fWAR per year during his Cubs career, which places him as a solidly above average starter. Acquiring that sort of production on the free agent market generally costs about twice as much as Byrd’s $6.5 million dollar salary in this last year of his contract. So what can the Cubs expect to get for him?

The answer would appear to be shockingly little.

Marco Scutaro has been averaged 2.7 WAR over the last two years and was being paid $6 million. He was just traded to the Rockies for Clay Mortensen, who is generally regarded as nothing more than filler. The primary gain the Red Sox got from the deal was simple salary relief.

There are other, more comparable players out there widely assumed to be on the trade market. BJ Upton is slightly better but also slightly more costly. The cost conscious Rays still haven’t gotten an offer they’ve deemed worthy to move him. Adam Jones is similarly productive to Byrd, has two years left on his contract, and the rebuilding O’s haven’t gotten any good offers. Andre Ethier is still a Dodger despite the financial woes of the franchise giving them a prime motivator to sell.

The matter is only further complicated when you consider the limited number of suitors. Only the Braves and Nationals are known to be seeking outfield help at this point. It would be folly to completely discount the ubiquitous mystery team, but most teams that might otherwise have interest have settled for lower cost alternatives (see: Ryan Ludwick with Reds, Cody Ross with Red Sox).

Simply put, supply is higher than demand. The only way to ensure Byrd is the one traded is to drop the price.

I still expect to see the Cubs move Marlon Byrd before the deadline; they get nothing if he just walks at the end of the year. And it makes little sense to extend him considering the Cubs are overstocked in the outfield anyways. But given the state of the market, I would not be surprised to see Theo hold onto Byrd until closer to the deadline hoping that the market improves. And when Byrd is moved I’m not expecting a B-level prospect anymore. The return is more likely to be something like a couple borderline C / C+ guys who are in the low minors, with Theo picking up part of Byrd’s contract. Anything more than that is just a victory on Theo’s part.

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