They’re more similar than you think.

Johnny Cueto:

Cueto absolutely blasted through the minor league system. In three years, he went from rookie ball to AAA –and in the process, from a guy scouts considered too small to be taken seriously as a prospect to ranking as high as #34 on Baseball America’s Top 100 list in 2008. Despite being undersized at 5’10” he managed to post a K/9 of 9.41 and combined that with an equally excellent 2.16 BB/9.

In 2008, at the age of 22, Cueto made the starting rotation out of spring training. In his debut he struck out 10, walked none, and only allowed a single hit in his seven innings – a solo home run to uberprospect Justin Upton. He wouldn’t win another game until over a month later… posting an ERA of 5.40 through the end of May.

Cueto had a problem. His 1.50 HR/9 that season was the fifth worst figure in baseball, and his 13.9% HR/FB would tie him for the sixth worst figure. That’s what happens when you’re an extreme flyball pitcher throwing half your games in the bandbox that is the Great American Ballpark.

We haven’t seen the same Cueto since. As a matter of fact, he has completely revamped his entire approach. The most obvious change is in pitch selection. Take a look at these two graphs. The first is from 2008, the latter from 2011. See if you can spot the difference.

(Graphs taken from fangraphs.com)

Cueto is doing two things differently. He has cut his four seem fastball usage from 60% or so of his pitches down to 20%, instead opting for a two seam fastball with significantly more break down-and-in to right handed batters. This has allowed him to induce far more groundballs. He has also altered his slider to break more downwards than the frisbee slider he was showcasing during his rookie season. Once again, the result of this is more grounders.

And when I say more grounders, I mean more grounders. In 2008, Cueto had the 16^th lowest groundball ratio of all 88 qualified pitchers. In 2011, Cueto would have had the 11^th highest groundball ratio of 94 qualified pitchers (he narrowly missed the innings pitched cutoff). But that’s not the only thing he’s doing differently. Not content to merely alter his pitch selection, he has also changed his entire approach to pitching. Don’t believe me? Click here. (jerk)

Okay, I’ll summarize that wall of numbers. Rookie Cueto lived in the zone and relied on his raw stuff to blow by hitters. Crafty Veteran Cueto dances around outside the zone and attempts to induce weak contact early in the count.

The end result of all these tweaks is a completely different pitcher than he was before. Take a look at these graphs. (once again, from fangraphs.com)

Rookie Cueto was an extreme flyball power pitcher with a HR problem. Crafty Veteran Cueto doesn’t strike anybody out but he keeps the ball on the ground and limits free passes. It’s been a very effective transition to this point, culminating in last year’s 2.31 ERA season.

Mike Leake:

Mike Leake was a surprise addition to the Reds rotation out of spring training in 2010. He had yet to throw a pitch in the minor leagues after having been drafted out of Arizona State the year before, but Reds management was so impressed by his performance during the spring that they handed him a job regardless. And for the most part he has rewarded their faith. During the 2010 season, Leake struggled with his control at times – hardly surprising considering his complete lack of experience. But 2011 was a different story.

Leake is actually very similar to our friend Crafty Veteran Cueto. He’s an extreme groundball pitcher with a low strikeout rate and a good walk rate. But what most fans probably don’t realize is that 2011 saw Mike Leake post a better K/9 than Cueto (6.33 to Cueto’s 6.00) as well as a better BB/9 (2.04 to Cueto’s 2.71).

Seriously. Mike Leake posted better strikeout and walk rates than Johnny Cueto. Let that sink in for a bit.

There were three significant differences between Leake and Cueto last season.

1. Leake still gives up way too many home runs.
2. Cueto’s ERA was way out of line with his peripherals (a.k.a. – “He got lucky.”)
3. Leake was busted shoplifting about $60 worth of shirts from a Macys.

#3 probably isn’t terribly relevant, but who could resist mentioning it?

The ERA Indicators:

So what do our trusty ERA indicators say about these two players last season?

FIP: Cueto – 3.45, Leake – 4.22

xFIP: Cueto – 3.90, Leake – 3.68

SIERA: Cueto – 3.93, Leake – 3.76

Not surprisingly, the one ERA indicator that believes HR/FB is primarily a pitcher skill (FIP) likes Cueto better. Meanwhile, the other two systems believe HR/FB is influenced more heavily by luck and tend to prefer Leake ever so slightly.

Ultimately, they both look like they should be low-mid 3’s ERA guys pitching in front of what should be a pretty good Reds defense.

Showdown:

Uhhh… they’re pretty much the same guy right now. This one comes down to what you’re looking for.

Johnny Cueto gets the edge on upside. His falling strikeout rate has been due to pitch selection and location choices, not degradation of skills. It’s entirely possible he makes some tweaks to his approach and the strikeouts begin to return. But coming off a 2.31 ERA season he’s going to be quite overvalued in most drafts. Whatever you do, don’t overpay for him. If he just falls into your lap, great… but he’s not worth reaching for.

Mike Leake is the value pick. He is going to go completely unnoticed in most leagues. Mock Draft Central actually has him at 9.2% ownership in expert leagues. He’s less “rotation anchor” and more “spot starter when on the road and/or facing a weak offense.” But he’s an excellent guy to pair with a high strikeout-mediocre ERA and WHIP guy like Brandon Morrow. That’s not bad for a guy you can probably stash on your league’s waiver wire most of the season.

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