Continuing a yearly NSBB tradition, a number of regulars from the Minor League Forum came together to discuss prospects in the Cubs’ system and to put together a composite Top 10.  During the Arizona Fall League, Tim, craig, CaliforniaRaisin, toonsterwu, Transmogrified Tiger, and Outshined_One put their heads together, compared rankings, and created the following list.

This time around, the Composite Top 10 was created through a majority vote system, with the prospect receiving the majority of the votes being named for a given slot.  Where a majority was not reached, the relative ranking of each prospect was used as a tiebreaker.  Keep in mind that the lists for each prospect are a bit old and each poster may have changed their rankings since then.

Thanks to everyone who participated and made this possible!

NSBB Composite Top 10

#1 – RHP Chris Archer

Bio

Born: 09/26/1988

Birthplace: Raleigh, NC

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 180

Bats: R

Throws: R

Stats

(Insert Spreadsheet)

Rankings

CaliforniaRaisin – 1, craig – 1, Tim – 1, Outshined_One – 2, toonsterwu – 2, Transmogrified Tiger – 2

Overview

The Cleveland Indians drafted Chris Archer in the 5^th round of the 2006 draft out of high school.  Following the 2008 season, the Cubs acquired Archer in the Mark DeRosa trade.  He received mixed reviews for his 2009 season in Peoria (109 IP, 119 K, 66 BB, 0 HR) due to his good stuff and control problems.  In 2010, Archer made stops at Daytona and Tennessee, becoming the ace of both staffs with a dynamite repertoire of pitches.  Archer figures to be a Top 50 prospect in baseball this offseason due to his excellent arsenal and success.

The Good: Possessing a devastating 1-2 punch in his fastball and slider, Archer’s upside is somewhere between a potential ace and a very good #2 starter.  Archer’s fastball primarily sits in the low to mid 90s with good movement, although he can hit the high 90s.  His slider has excellent movement and bite to it.  His changeup also is promising.  Archer has a reputation of being stingy with HRs, which he lived up to in Daytona and Tennessee (6 HR in 142.3 IP).  One of the most promising signs for Archer’s future as a starter was that he was able to cut down on his control problems while with Daytona (26 BB in 72.3 IP).

The Bad: Archer’s control problems returned with a vengeance in Tennessee (39 BB in 70 IP), although he managed to minimize the damage.  While Archer can handle a starter’s workload, there is enough concern about his control that Archer might move to the bullpen, where he could thrive as a late inning reliever.

Comments

Tim – Put simply, he is the pitcher with the highest upside in this system.

Toonsterwu: It’s hard for me to rank a risky starting prospect.  His stuff is really good, but if he cannot harness it and has to be a relief pitcher, his value drops.

Transmogrified Tiger: While his peripherals dropped from Tennessee to Daytona, he still was excellent at keeping the ball in the park and is very much in control of reaching his very high ceiling.

#2 – OF Brett Jackson

Bio

Born: 08/02/1988

Birthplace: Berkeley, CA

College: UC Berkeley

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: R

Outshined_One – 1, toonsterwu – 1, Transmogrified Tiger – 1, CaliforniaRaisin – 3, craig – 3, Tim - 4

Overview

In the 2009 draft, Jackson was a much-maligned selection because of his perceived plate discipline problems.  Jackson promptly silenced many of his doubters with a very strong 2009 that established him as a legitimate prospect in the Cubs’ organization.  Starting the 2010 season in Daytona, Jackson picked up where he left off with an excellent campaign before getting promoted to Tennessee midseason.  While he took a slight step back with Tennessee, Jackson completed his first full season as a productive and promising outfielder.

The Good: Jackson is a legitimate five tool prospect.  Offensively, Jackson has shown the ability to hit for a high average, using all fields and belting plenty of extra base hits.  On top of that, Jackson’s power still has not totally blossomed.  Jackson also does an excellent job of taking walks (73 BBs in 580 PAs).  On the base paths, Jackson puts his plus speed to use, posting a 30/11 SB/CS ratio last year.  In center field, Jackson displays good instincts and intelligence.  His arm is average, but he uses it well enough to keep it from being much of a liability.  He should be a plus defender in his prime.  Scouts and coaches also rave about his personality and maturity.

The Bad: Jackson’s strikeout problems continued in 2010 (126 in 580 PAs).  Jackson struck out at a slightly lower rate in 2010 than in 2009 (56 in 259), but this is a problem that has dogged Jackson since his college days.  This makes Jackson’s upside difficult to gauge; he might work past those problems and be a tremendous asset for the Cubs…or his strikeout-heavy approach might sabotage a promising career.

Comments

Outshined_One: If Jackson reaches his upside, he will make a handful of All Star Games and be a solid starting CF with good defense, power, and speed.

Navin: The pitching he faces will only get better from here on out.  His issues with strikeouts and making contact are well-established and concern me.  I can’t rate him above Archer or McNutt for those reasons.

Toonsterwu: He’s a good guy with the bat, especially when it comes to situational hitting.  I wouldn’t call him a hacker.  He’s over-aggressive more than anything else.

#3 – RHP Trey McNutt

Bio

Born: 08/2/1989

Birthplace: Haleyville, AL

College: Shelton State CC

Height: 6' 4"

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R

CaliforniaRaisin – 2, Tim – 2, Outshined_One – 3, toonsterwu – 3, Transmogrified Tiger – 3, craig - 4

Overview

McNutt was pegged as a possible sleeper from the 2009 MLB Draft due to his $115k bonus and good fastball/curveball mix.  He put up solid numbers for Boise and generated some buzz in 2009 as a possible Cashner-lite.  In 2010, McNutt came into his own during his time with Peoria, Daytona, and Tennessee.  Along the way, he posted excellent numbers, vaulted onto many Top 100 prospect lists, and became old enough to drink legally.  While Archer and Jackson were ranked 1-2, a number of NSBB posters talked about wanting to rank McNutt as the top prospect in the system, but deciding against it for various reasons.

The Good: McNutt comes armed with a potential plus fastball that works in the low to mid 90s and can touch 98 on the gun.  While the fastball does not have a whole lot of life, McNutt uses it to pound the strike zone with good results.  McNutt’s breaking pitch has been described as both a curve and a slider.  Regardless, it also has the potential to be a plus pitch with excellent action.  His changeup is a work in progress, but the arm action is there for it to be a good pitch.

The Bad: Those posters who didn’t want to name him top prospect in the system said they wanted to see him pitch more.  His numbers tailed off a bit in Tennessee, which could have been fatigue from his first full season, or could have been symptomatic of problems with a more advanced league.  Regardless, a full season in AA would answer a number of questions about McNutt’s future.  On a different note, McNutt’s command goes off the rails whenever he tries to overthrow his pitches.

Comments

Craig: How much better can he get?  The HRs he gave up in Tennessee were worrying, plus he might have issues with control and movement.  Still, he is very promising.

CaliforniaRaisin: I was tempted to rank him #1, but I want to see how he does over a longer stretch at AA before doing that.

Tim: The only things I can knock him for are his fly balls and the fact that I want to see more from him.  Otherwise, he has a real nice frame, great stuff, and outstanding control.

#4 – SS Hak-Ju Lee

Bio

Born: 11/04/1990

Birthplace: Jeonju, South Korea

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 170

Bats: L

Throws: R

craig – 2, Outshined_One – 4, Transmogrified Tiger – 4, CaliforniaRaisin – 5, toonsterwu – 5, Tim - 7

Overview

Two years removed from a $725,000 signing bonus and one year removed from being named the #1 Prospect in the Northwest League by Baseball America, Lee came into the 2010 season looking to continue to live up to the hype.  Lee took some big steps forward, including being named to the Futures Game, where he got substantial playing time.  However, after his first full season, a number of Lee’s weaknesses were exposed to the point that it became clear to all of the posters that he will not shoot through the system in the same way Starlin Castro did.  Lee should be a Top 100 prospect on most lists and will likely begin next season in Daytona.

The Good: Lee continued to live up to his billing as a potential plus defender at shortstop.  The physical tools are there for Lee, including excellent range and a good arm.  According to reports from Peoria, Lee made spectacular plays on a regular basis.  Offensively, Lee continued to showcase a high average approach, complete with very good bunting for his age.  Lee also put his speed to good use, successfully swiping 32/39 bases on the year.

The Bad: To put it bluntly, Lee showed almost no power this season.  In compiling this list, there were concerns that Lee might not even develop enough power to make it out of the minors altogether.  Even if Lee develops the power expected from him, he may never hit more than 10 HRs in a season.  Adding muscle may also sap his plus speed.  Defensively, Lee had his share of errors and still needs to iron out his mechanics, which should come with time and repetition, but it still merits some concern.

Comments

Transmogrified Tiger: His tools way outstrip his performance.  He did a lot of good things this year, but he needs to add power without losing his contact ability.

CaliforniaRaisin: He has plenty of time, given his age.  However, he needs to add power.

Craig: While he is limited by his absolute lack of power and errors, he will stay at SS.  Whether he makes it as a starter or a utility sub depends on how much he develops as a hitter.

#5 – 3B Josh Vitters

Bio

Born: 08/27/1989

Birthplace: Anaheim, CA

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Tim – 3, CaliforniaRaisin – 4, Outshined_One – 6, toonsterwu – 6, Transmogrified Tiger – 6, craig - 8

Overview

One of the more controversial prospects on this list, Josh Vitters has had incredible promise since he was drafted third overall in 2007, but he has yet to live up to that promise for an extended period of time.  The Cubs have had a quick trigger with Vitters, promoting him midseason two years in a row (from Peoria to Daytona in 2009 and Daytona to Tennessee in 2010) despite concerns that Vitters might not have been ready for those promotions.  Although Vitters ended his 2010 regular season with a broken finger on a HBP, he saw extended playing time at 3B and 1B in the Arizona Fall League.

The Good: Vitters has some of the best power in the Cubs’ system, with some analysts thinking Vitters could top 30+ HRs in a season during his peak years.  He also showed some improvement with his plate discipline, drawing more walks in 2010 than 2009 despite almost 140 fewer plate appearances.  He also spent most of his 2010 as a 20 year old and was young for High A and AA.  Also of note is that Vitters’ peripherals suggest that he ran into a good amount of bad luck in 2010, which makes him an intriguing breakout candidate in 2011.

The Bad: As mentioned above, Vitters has not lived up to the expectations placed on him.  He posted a respectable .291/.350/.445 line in High A, but his .223/.292/.383 line in AA was quite disappointing.  Also, Vitters’ strikeouts jumped substantially in 2010 (63 Ks in 348 PAs) compared to 2009 (65 Ks in 484 PAs), as he faced better competition, leading to questions about whether he will have any meaningful plate discipline in the majors.  Defensively, he likely will never be more than a passable 3B; a move to 1B is still a possibility in his future.  Finally, while Vitters has not had any serious injuries, his history of nagging injuries creates some concern for his durability.

Comments

Tim: He’s made progress every year.  He has a better age/league ratio than Lee.  Give him another year in AA and compare his numbers to Brett Jackson.

Toonsterwu: I buy Vitters’ potential, but at some point you need performance to go with it.  He hasn’t dominated at any level for an extended period of time.

Transmogrified Tiger: As much as I want to credit him for what he’s done before promotions over the past two years, he has to be docked for his inability to finish a season healthy.

#6 – IF Junior Lake

Bio

Born: 03/27/1990

Birthplace: San Pedro, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Rankings

Tim – 5, CaliforniaRaisin – 6, craig – 7, toonsterwu – 8, Outshined_One – 9, Transmogrified Tiger - 17

Overview

After following up a strong 2008 stateside debut in the Arizona League with a stink bomb in Peoria in 2009, Junior Lake came into this season without much fanfare.  While Lake was once considered a better prospect than Starlin Castro, 2009 saw too many errors, too many strikeouts, and not nearly enough production from Lake.  The first half of Lake’s 2010 was much the same.  However, the light bulb seemed to come on for Lake in his second half.  Over the course of July and August, Lake displayed the power and patience many have hoped to see from him since his Arizona League days.  While Lake faded somewhat in September, he will come into 2011 with hopes that he picks up where he left off.

The Good: Lake has one of the best ceilings in the Cubs’ organization.  Lake’s raw physical tools could allow him to blossom into a premiere infield prospect with defense, power, some speed, and a good bat.  Lake finally translated that potential into success at the plate in the second half of his 2010 season, including 7 HRs in the month of July.  He also improved on his plate discipline, drawing more BBs and striking out less in 2010 (35 BBs, 99 K) than he did in 2009 (18 BBs and 138 Ks).  Defensively, he has the arm and range to play SS, but as he fills out his frame, Lake likely will move to 3B.

The Bad: Lake has a reputation for having issues with various mental aspects of the game, as evidenced by his periodic errors (41 in 2010) and caught stealings (13/9 SB/CS).  Reportedly, Lake does not take instruction well.  Despite his second half success, Lake had an atrocious first half and was on the verge of being an after-thought in the organization.  While Lake made strides in cutting down on his strikeouts, 99 Ks is still noticeably high.  Despite his enormous potential, Lake also has a high likelihood of turning into a bust.

Comments

Outshined_One: The potential has always been there and it’s impressive how well he has improved from 2009.  The question in my mind is whether he can continue this next season.

Tim: He is a significantly better prospect than Lee and he has the single highest ceiling in this system.

Craig: While he has a good arm and flashed some power, how much power does he have?  Will he keep his Ks to a reasonable level with enough power to offset them?

#7 – RHP Chris Carpenter

Bio

Born: 12/26/1985

Birthplace: Bryan, OH

College: Kent State

Height: 6' 4"

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Rankings

toonsterwu – 4, Outshined_One – 5, CaliforniaRaisin – 7, Transmogrified Tiger – 19, craig - 25

Overview

Once considered a potential first round selection based on his talent in the 2008 draft, Carpenter fell to the 3^rd round due to an extended injury history.  Carpenter came into his own in 2009, when he made stops in Peoria, Daytona, and Tennessee.  In 2010, Carpenter did not start his season until mid-April in Tennessee due to shoulder injury.  As a reward for his success, Carpenter enjoyed a brief promotion to Iowa in August before being demoted back to Tennessee to join them in their playoff hunt.  Carpenter also logged time in the Arizona Fall League, where he was used primarily out of the bullpen for 1-2 inning outings.  While Carpenter might begin 2011 in Iowa as a starter, there has been speculation that he could wind up in the Cubs’ bullpen instead.

The Good: Carpenter reportedly hit triple digits with his fastball in the Arizona Fall League.  Normally, his fastball works in the low to mid 90s.  His slider and changeup also get good marks.  Carpenter finished the season around the 150 IP mark thanks to Tennessee’s playoff run and the Arizona Fall League, which shows that he could have a chance to stick as a starting pitcher down the road.  Finally, even if Carpenter moves to the bullpen, his stuff is good enough to close.

The Bad: Carpenter has not done much to inspire confidence that his injury history is in the past.  He started 2010 with shoulder soreness and had to be handled with kid gloves early in the season.  As for his pitching, Carpenter loses control periodically and gives up a few too many walks for comfort (57 BBs in 134.2 IP between AA and AAA).  Also, despite the fact that Carpenter can dial it up to triple digits, his fastball apparently does not have much movement.

Comments

CaliforniaRaisin: The stuff is great, but his consistency and injury history are major red flags.

Transmogrified Tiger: He had a bit of a meh year, but he now has two full seasons under his belt.  His stuff mitigates his age and keeps him in my Top 20.

Craig: He’s wildly inconsistent with bad control.  He sometimes flashes a big fastball, but his movement and command may not be good enough to make that fastball as good as people say.

#8 – RHP Jay Jackson

Bio

Born: 10/27/1987

Birthplace: Taylors, SC

College: Furman

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 195

Bats: R

Throws: R

Transmogrified Tiger – 5, Outshined_One – 7, toonsterwu – 7, CaliforniaRaisin – 8, craig – 9

Overview

A well-established prospect in the Cubs’ system, Jackson has come a long way since being a relative unknown 9^th rounder out of Furman in 2008.  Following a breakout 2008 between Boise, Peoria, and Daytona, Jackson had an up and down 2009 where he pitched quite well, but ran into some disciplinary issues that caused him to be demoted from Tennessee to Daytona.  Jackson came into 2010 as the ace of the Iowa staff and started out strongly.  However, the Cubs decided to test Jackson in Iowa’s bullpen over a brief stint…and then moved him back to the rotation, where his production fell off a cliff.

The Good: Jackson still boasts a four pitch arsenal (fastball, slider, curve, change), all of which could be average or better pitches.  His fastball works in the low to mid 90s to go with a slider with sharp movement when he has it working.  One bit of good news from 2010 is that Jackson tightened his control compared to 2009 (48 BBs in 157.1 IP compared to 46 BBs in 127 IP).

The Bad: Jackson took a big step back in 2010.  Jackson was putrid from June onward, sporting a 6.20 ERA over 61 IP.  Compared to last year, his strikeouts were way down (119 Ks in 157.1 IP compared to 127 Ks in 127 IP) while his HRs were up (20 HRs in 157.1 IP compared to 11 HRs in 127 IP).  Moreover, he struggled with his secondary stuff; especially his slider.  A move to the bullpen may be in his future, but Jackson’s stuff is a tick below some of the other potential bullpen candidates in 2011.  He may get lost in the shuffle.

Comments

CaliforniaRaisin: A full year in AAA is good for someone in their second pro season, plus his BB/9 improved.  Still, he struggled in the second half and his K/9 fell.

Outshined_One: He can afford to repeat AAA, but his temporary move to the bullpen was a sign of things to come, which is a shame, considering his potential.

Toonsterwu: It’s easy to forget how fast he’s risen up the system.  His promising slider has yet to materialize, although his fastball is still quite good.  He might be better off in the bullpen if that’s the case.

#9 – OF Brandon Guyer

Bio

Born: 01/28/1986

Birthplace: Charlottesville, VA

College: Virginia

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Rankings

craig – 5, Outshined_One – 8, Transmogrified Tiger – 9, CaliforniaRaisin – 11, toonsterwu – 12

Overview

Guyer came into 2010 as a difficult prospect to evaluate.  A fifth rounder out of the University of Virginia in 2007, he first came into the spotlight with a solid 2008 in Peoria, posting an .830 OPS with good power and patience.  In 2009, Guyer started in Tennessee and stank to the point of being demoted to Daytona, where he recovered and once again showed good power and patience.  Guyer’s 2010 began in Tennessee and started somewhat unremarkably.  However, in the second half of his season, Guyer was arguably the hottest player at any level of baseball, hitting over .400 and re-establishing himself among the Cubs’ prospects.

The Good: Guyer gets the most out of a strong overall set of tools thanks to his hustle and hard work.  Defensively, he can play all three OF positions with his good arm and route running.  In addition to plus speed, Guyer is smart enough to pick his spots on the base paths, as evidenced by 30 SBs in 33 attempts this season.  If he can become a starter in CF, Guyer should hit for enough average and power to be an asset.

The Bad: Despite playing all three OF positions, Guyer is a classic tweener.  Hitting .280 with 10-15 HRs and mediocre patience will not cut it in a corner.  However, he likely does not have the range needed to be an everyday CF.  In other words, he might find himself as a 4^th OF in the majors.  Age is another concern for Guyer.  While 24 is not too old for AA, he might not have much upside left.  Guyer also gets flak for having below average BB numbers over the course of his career.

Comments

Craig: He hit really well this past season.  If he can develop power and play CF in the majors, he could be a good one.

Transmogrified Tiger: After crushing AA pitching, he needs to hit well from the get-go next year to avoid another slow start, lest he be cast into Dubois-dom.

#10 – OF Reggie Golden

Bio

Born: 10/10/1991

Birthplace: Wetumpka, AL

Height: 5' 10"

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Rankings

Transmogrified Tiger – 7, CaliforniaRaisin – 9, toonsterwu – 9, craig – 10, Outshined_One – 11

Overview

The Cubs selected Golden 65^th overall in the 2010 draft, giving him an overslot bonus of $720,000 to pry him away from a commitment to Alabama.  After signing, Golden logged four games in the Arizona League before being shut down due to hamstring issues.  Following the season, Golden spent some time in the Instructional League and did pretty well for himself.

The Good: Baseball America named Golden as having the best power potential in the Cubs’ 2010 draft, with potential plus plus power.  In addition to his power, Golden has above average speed which could be useful on the base paths.  In the field, Golden has a strong arm and profiles quite nicely defensively as a RF, although he may have enough speed to be passable in CF.

The Bad: There is very little information on Golden as far as his professional career is concerned.  He reportedly might have some issues hitting for average and striking out, but the fact is, Golden has not logged enough time as a professional to get a good handle on what his issues are, be it strike zone discipline, translating batting practice into in-game power, inability to go the other way, or any number of other problems.

Comments

Toonsterwu: He might have the highest upside at the plate of anyone in the system, but he is really raw and needs a lot of work.

Outshined_One: I would have been satisfied if the Cubs took him in the first round of this past year’s draft.  A player with his profile in this system makes me nervous, but the upside is real.