Search found 2402 matches

by Hairyducked Idiot
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:06 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

I dunno exactly. It basically changes all the assumptions we used to make our first round of decisions, so we have to be prepared to think on a completely different axis for the next round. Wider spread implies a much lower death rate (that's good) and much more difficult containment (that's bad). T...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:12 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/april/resultat-fran-undersokning-av-forekomsten-av-covid-19-i-region-stockholm/ This one's in Swedish. 2.5% of nasal swab tests in Stockholm, self-administered in a random sample from March 27-April 3. Now account for the fact th...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:18 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

All the old caveats about comparing case totals across countries applies. Everyone has different standards for deciding who to test, which directly impacts how many cases you find.
by Hairyducked Idiot
Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

I've seen a couple more articles pop up today with doctors saying that intubation is the wrong treatment for a lot of these cases because the lungs are doing a reasonable job of expelling CO2, it's just that the oxygen isn't getting to the blood. That would definitely be interesting for the possibil...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: Politics & Current Events
Replies: 36224
Views: 1924235

Re: Politics & Current Events

I disagree. Hard. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/ At a comparable date in 2016, Clinton was pulling +10s routinely. So that means Trump is likely to win? An unlikely thing happened last election. It doesn't mean that a similarly unlikely thing will happen aga...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

I believe Diamond Princess was 20% with swab tests, I don't think they ever did antibodies. If this thing is as transmissible as some of the recent report imply, it's safe to assume pretty much everyone on the cruise ship got it. yeah, i should've clarified...but with the whole event being limited ...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

I believe Diamond Princess was 20% with swab tests, I don't think they ever did antibodies. If this thing is as transmissible as some of the recent report imply, it's safe to assume pretty much everyone on the cruise ship got it.
by Hairyducked Idiot
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:55 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: Politics & Current Events
Replies: 36224
Views: 1924235

Re: Politics & Current Events

I disagree. Hard. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/ At a comparable date in 2016, Clinton was pulling +10s routinely. I think the election will be embarrassingly close, but there are some mitigating factors here. Cruz and Kasich were still in the race while the...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: Politics & Current Events
Replies: 36224
Views: 1924235

Re: Politics & Current Events

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Brian707 wrote:Trump as of now is better than a coin flip to win the election. I wish i shared some of your optimism

I disagree. Hard.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/


At a comparable date in 2016, Clinton was pulling +10s routinely.
by Hairyducked Idiot
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

It's a mixed bag. An R0 of 5.7 would make it really tough to control with measures short of full lockdowns. On its own, that's bad news. But it calls into question official case counts and hints a little bit at the everpresent "iceberg" theory: that even the amount of cases we suspect is ...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

This is the first I've seen of the serological studies we've been waiting for. It's in Dutch so it's laurens' time to shine. https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2020/Corona/Status-og-strategi/COVID19_Status-6-uge.ashx?la=da&hash=6819E71BFEAAB5ACA55BD6161F38B75F1EB05999 They found antibodies i...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:05 am
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

It's a mixed bag. An R0 of 5.7 would make it really tough to control with measures short of full lockdowns. On its own, that's bad news. But it calls into question official case counts and hints a little bit at the everpresent "iceberg" theory: that even the amount of cases we suspect is o...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:00 am
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

This is the first I've seen of the serological studies we've been waiting for. It's in Dutch so it's laurens' time to shine. https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2020/Corona/Status-og-strategi/COVID19_Status-6-uge.ashx?la=da&hash=6819E71BFEAAB5ACA55BD6161F38B75F1EB05999 They found antibodies in...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: Politics & Current Events
Replies: 36224
Views: 1924235

Re: Politics & Current Events

If you guys are mad now, wait until you find out that Trump comes out of the entire pandemic with a political tie at worst because the worst-case scenarios that needed to be broadcast to force him to react also give him an extremely easy bar to pass under and declare victory.
by Hairyducked Idiot
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:10 am
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Jesus, the USA now has 400,000 confirmed cases. And we know that cases are being undercounted by at least several times. Even if you go by the low end of undercounting factors, we're looking at least 1% of the population being infected.
by Hairyducked Idiot
Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

This is actually a really important point that I feel like the smarter parts of the internet still sometimes miss: Social distancing is extremely effective against transmission, but it also has a diminishing return. I see a lot of worries that some idiots are going to ruin it for everyone and make l...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Total hospitalizations falling in New York three days running. This thing is going to come in way below some of our worst fears from a week ago. Which of course is still way worse than it would have been if we hadn't blown it in late February/early March. We're a week or two away from *beginning* t...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Total hospitalizations falling in New York three days running. This thing is going to come in way below some of our worst fears from a week ago. Which of course is still way worse than it would have been if we hadn't blown it in late February/early March. We're a week or two away from *beginning* th...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:38 am
Forum: Cubs Discussions
Topic: Game Off (MLB suspended indefinitely)
Replies: 67
Views: 3619

Re: Game Off (MLB suspended indefinitely)

Honestly, it's a pretty reasonable idea. I'm hoping that by June, medium-sized gatherings (<50) will be considered common enough that we won't even need the players to fully sequester or sit apart in the dugout or whatever. But damn are they gonna have the mother of all PR disasters/lawsuits if a mi...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: Guess what an idiot with a church did this time...
Replies: 13
Views: 2490

Re: Guess what an idiot with a church did this time...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52157824

"It's the media's fault we didn't believe the media because we trusted untrustworthy people who told us not to believe the media."
by Hairyducked Idiot
Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

the IHME model update came out and it now projects florida to peak in deaths much sooner than before It's lowered projections all over the nation. This coming week *should* be the worst of it, as the cases who were infected 3-4 weeks ago hit the death totals. Another week to be sure, and then we ca...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

The number of people in ICU in Italy finally dropped yesterday. Not a lot, but it's the beginning, roughly 3-4 weeks post-lockdown, just as expected.
by Hairyducked Idiot
Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

This is the most comforting Covid video I’ve seen. ER doctor at NYC’s biggest hospital. He essentially explains how not to get it and what to do if you get it and that you shouldn’t be afraid of it https://youtu.be/Qwx3JMRTz8U That was before we realized that you could get it from just talking to s...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Anecdotally, it seems like people are jumping into mask-wearing pretty fast now that it's being recommended. Lots of family members who would have been the first ones to say "it's just the flu" if Fox News told them to say it a few months ago are now wearing cloth masks anytime they go out...
by Hairyducked Idiot
Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Social
Topic: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)
Replies: 1795
Views: 45257

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

In order to take some of the heat off TT with statements that could be interpreted as heartless, I've been reading a lot about the theory of "mortality displacement" that says that a lot of the reported death total for COVID is either 1) people who would have died anyway who happened to ha...

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