squally1313 wrote: Bertz wrote:
This is underselling his approach. He's cut his Ks again, walks a ton, and is hitting with more power...Without looking at anything else those are breakout ingredients
If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular.
Maybe I'm not thinking about this right, but I don't see how the juiced ball really impacts his value relative to other players. Everyone is playing with it. He was 37th in baseball in home runs last year, this year he's getting more ABs and he's 20th. Everyone else is hitting more home runs, but so is he, so I don't get how his value drops. To use non-specific numbers, hitting 125% of the league average is equally valuable is the league average is 15 or 20.
Schwarber's HR/FB rates the last three years:
2017 - 24.0
2018 - 24.5
2019 - 24.1
Edit: For context, league wide HR/FB the last three years is 13.7, 12.7, 15.4
He's NOT getting the big boost from the ball. His well struck balls were always dongs, but now they are just going another 10-15 feet. Schwarber's .844 OPS this year isn't that notable because the league average is .760. But if the ball reverts, and the league average OPS goes back to last year's. 728 or (god forbid) 2014's .700, suddenly he's back to being a feared slugger.
Honestly I think this is the primary reason the shine is off the apple for most of our offensive core, but that's a whole other thing.