"horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Bull » Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:02 am

PackLandVA wrote:Saw this article earlier today about Schwarber's defense. Also makes reference to Harper's defense this year, or lack of.

Link to Cubs.com Article

Quickly, what do those numbers say? Well, Baseball Reference ranks Schwarber five runs above average. John Dewan, who has been studying defense forever, has him plus-one on his plus-minus scale (which estimates how many plays above or below the average player are made). Fangraphs has Schwarber five runs above average. The Statcast™ folks have him slightly below average but show him holding his own.


So I don't really kow what to make of his defense.

Thoughts??


He is a lump who catches more balls because the cubs have three left handed starting pitchers and thus face more right handed batters, and because Almora is also a lump.

Also everyone is running on his not awful arm giving him lots of opportunities.

ETA: I’m mostly joking. Mostly.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby mul21 » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:23 pm

He’s a decent athlete who’s getting better at the position but still occasionally misjudges a ball and has an above average arm that is pretty accurate. He’s fine out there just like most people who knew he was still learning to be an OF thought he would be.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby OleMissCub » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:41 pm

Schwarber is now SECOND in the NL among outfielders with a 6.3 UZR. He's sandwiched between Cain and CarGo.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Banedon » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:42 pm

OleMissCub wrote:Schwarber is now SECOND in the NL among outfielders with a 6.3 UZR. He's sandwiched between Cain and CarGo.


He's only bad at outfield during national broadcasts. He's just fine every other game.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:53 pm

Banedon wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:Schwarber is now SECOND in the NL among outfielders with a 6.3 UZR. He's sandwiched between Cain and CarGo.


He's only bad at outfield during national broadcasts. He's just fine every other game.

The fact that CarGo is somehow third shows how weird UZR is.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:13 pm

What's the general take on Schwarber this season?

Like, my dumb opinion would be that he seems...fine. And seemingly a decent number of people here were expecting/hoping for a breakout season for him.

Obviously, having a 30 dong-mashing, 3 fWAR, LH platoon OF isn't a BAD thing...but what were some of the smarter baseball people here hoping to see from him at this point instead?
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:19 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:What's the general take on Schwarber this season?

Like, my dumb opinion would be that he seems...fine. And seemingly a decent number of people here were expecting/hoping for a breakout season for him.

Obviously, having a 30 dong-mashing, 3 fWAR, LH platoon OF isn't a BAD thing...but what were some of the smarter baseball people here hoping to see from him at this point instead?


I'm not real sure what to think going forward. his WAR is skewed a little by the defense which you probably can't expect to rate this high moving forward. If you think the shift is responsible for his low BABIP then this is probably best case scenario unless he can cut 6-7 percent off his k rate.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:19 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:What's the general take on Schwarber this season?

Like, my dumb opinion would be that he seems...fine. And seemingly a decent number of people here were expecting/hoping for a breakout season for him.

Obviously, having a 30 dong-mashing, 3 fWAR, LH platoon OF isn't a BAD thing...but what were some of the smarter baseball people here hoping to see from him at this point instead?

He’s been about what I would’ve expected. Maybe .010-.015 points lower on batting average. I think he still has a decent hit tool and think he’s more of a ~.265 and not sub .250 hitter (I know we’re only talking probably like 10 hits over the course of a year). Would be nice to see the Ks come down 2-4% at the least as well. But overall he’s about what I expected and there’s a little more in there. He seems to be in a bit of a slump lately, so hopefully he has a strong final ~45 games.

Edit:

His expected BA is .258 vs the .245 he’s at and xWOBA is .369 vs the .348 it’s at. So yeah if he gets in line with what he “should” be that’s pretty much who I expect him to be. Plus I feel like some of the Ks are due to the absolute horrible zone he’s been given this year. Not only has he gotten called for Ks on balls that aren’t strikesI’m sure it’s horsefeathers him up to be swinging at more horsefeathers than he likes to because of horsefeathers umps.
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:20 pm

He's a little less than I hoped but right around what I more or less expected. Pretty good season for a 25 y/o. Comfortably leading the team in BB with very good power without sucking on defense is very nice.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:40 pm

More dongs plz
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Duke Silver » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:54 pm

Overall, he's about what I was hoping for. I agree he's probably been a little unlucky with his strike zone. He's made real strides in making more contact and especially closing holes in his swing in the zone. He's also showing a better eye at the plate. I think his most significant changes have been with some of his batted ball problems. He's hitting more line drives and he's cut down his infield fly ball rate. Those were legitimate problems last year. I think his BABIP is about right. He's probably not going to BABIP .300 because of the shift, but there's no reason he can't be close to it. He would be wise to start getting the ball in the air more often and eschewing Chili Ball.

Defensively I think his value is probably right this year because of how incredibly valuable his arm has been. But he's also been lucky to have so many opportunities to make plays with his arm. He probably won't have as many going forward. So that makes up for any poor luck on offense. Bring the offense up some and the defense down some and that's probably who he really is and it equals out to what his WAR is saying right now.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Duke Silver » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:12 pm

I agree this is probably best-case scenario, too. His arm makes up for him being a big lug in a corner outfield spot. But he's not going to have much value on defense. His power is topped out unless he starts getting the ball in the air more often. He's always going to strike out because he is so patient and gets into deep counts. He will never make a lot of contact. He might BABIP his way to a more valuable season or have an insane HR/FB season. But this is who he is. I have no hopes of him being more.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:14 pm

Duke Silver wrote:I agree this is probably best-case scenario, too. His arm makes up for him being a big lug in a corner outfield spot. But he's not going to have much value on defense. His power is topped out unless he starts getting the ball in the air more often. He's always going to strike out because he is so patient and gets into deep counts. He will never make a lot of contact. He might BABIP his way to a more valuable season or have an insane HR/FB season. But this is who he is. I have no hopes of him being more.

you agree with yourself?
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Duke Silver » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:16 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:I agree this is probably best-case scenario, too. His arm makes up for him being a big lug in a corner outfield spot. But he's not going to have much value on defense. His power is topped out unless he starts getting the ball in the air more often. He's always going to strike out because he is so patient and gets into deep counts. He will never make a lot of contact. He might BABIP his way to a more valuable season or have an insane HR/FB season. But this is who he is. I have no hopes of him being more.

you agree with yourself?


I was meaning to agree with TBS Playoffs Insider. But, yes.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby CubinNY » Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:52 pm

Schwarber getting hot going into the playoffs would be awsome.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:26 pm



Great call too.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby PackLandVA » Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:34 pm

:lol:
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:09 am

Man, I wish the Sox brought those uniforms back full time.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Stu » Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:22 am

I preferred the call on the Sox feed. Paraphrasing:

Alderman: “So Hawk we’d like to present you with this ..”

Hawk: “uh oh”

Lol
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:24 pm

Speaking of Hawk, he said Tim Anderson is an MVP candidate
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Re:

Postby PackLandVA » Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:25 pm

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:Speaking of Hawk, he said Tim Anderson is an MVP candidate


Team MVP? Sure, maybe.
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Postby The Logan » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:26 pm

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:Speaking of Hawk, he said Tim Anderson is an MVP candidate


*looks up Anderson's B-R page*

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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby illiniguy » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:50 pm

He and Stone were penciling in Anderson and Moncada for at least 60 homers a year. Also said they would be, the best middle infield in baseball. I assume they think the Houston Astros are a football team.
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Tim » Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:35 am

illiniguy wrote:He and Stone were penciling in Anderson and Moncada for at least 60 homers a year. Also said they would be, the best middle infield in baseball. I assume they think the Houston Astros are a football team.

Cleveland when Ramirez is at 2b?
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Re: "horsefeathers looks like The Thing" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:36 am

And yet another bizarre thing that's bit the Cubs this season:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-sil ... schwarber/

Yet Schwarber, on the year, has a wRC+ of 117. In just high-leverage situations, he has a wRC+ of — and I’m not making this up — -62. That is the number “62” with a negative sign in front of it. You’re wondering how that compares to the rest of the league. Here is the answer, given a minimum of 50 high-leverage plate appearances.


High Leverage, 2018
Player wRC+
Kyle Schwarber -62
Alcides Escobar -3
Chris Davis 9
Mallex Smith 10
James McCann 11
Brian Dozier 13
Addison Russell 15
Kendrys Morales 15
Adam Engel 17
Gorkys Hernandez 26

That table, I imagine, speaks for itself. So will the following tables. For a different angle on the above, consider that Schwarber has a wRC+ of -62 in high-leverage situations, and a wRC+ of 137 in low- and medium-leverage situations. The difference there is -199 points. This is the bottom of another leaderboard.


wRC+ By Leverage, 2018
Player Low/Med High Difference
Kyle Schwarber 137 -62 -199
Mallex Smith 129 10 -119
Kendrys Morales 119 15 -103
Joey Wendle 128 28 -100
Javier Baez 143 53 -90
Cody Bellinger 130 46 -84
Willson Contreras 109 26 -83
Nick Markakis 125 42 -83
Brian Dozier 95 13 -82
Brandon Belt 115 40 -75

Coincidentally, there are actually three Cubs among those ten players, but Schwarber has the greatest difference, and it’s not even close. The gap between Schwarber and Smith is 80 points. Schwarber’s splits are downright laughable, if you’re able to take a step back, and they remain laughable if you extend the window back to 2002, which is as far as our FanGraphs splits stretch. Here are the worst single-season high-leverage wRC+ marks.


High Leverage, 2002-2018
Player Season wRC+
Kyle Schwarber 2018 -62
Ryan Zimmerman 2016 -54
Neifi Perez 2002 -35
Royce Clayton 2003 -26
Casey Kotchman 2012 -24
Mark Ellis 2011 -24
Chris Young 2009 -20
Justin Smoak 2012 -20
Pedro Florimon 2013 -20
Kurt Suzuki 2011 -17

Right. And now here are the biggest (negative) differences between high-leverage hitting and low- and medium-leverage hitting.


wRC+ By Leverage, 2002-2018
Player Season Low/Med High Difference
Kyle Schwarber 2018 137 -62 -199
Jim Thome 2008 135 -5 -140
David Wright 2013 171 33 -138
Ryan Zimmerman 2016 81 -54 -135
Hideki Matsui 2007 136 3 -133
Jose Cruz 2003 119 -14 -132
Craig Biggio 2004 116 -15 -131
Mike Moustakas 2015 136 8 -128
Jason Varitek 2004 137 15 -121
Richard Hidalgo 2003 156 35 -121

It’s Schwarber by a mile. It’s Schwarber by the length of the average Kyle Schwarber home run. We haven’t seen anything quite like this in recent history. Granted, that’s somewhat arbitrary — for example, Baseball Reference uses different cutoffs when determining their leverage splits. But there’s no getting around the general message that Schwarber’s timing has been lousy. In low- and medium-leverage plate appearances, Schwarber has struck out 28% of the time. In high-leverage spots, he’s struck out 39% of the time. He has 43 extra-base hits and zero extra-base hits, respectively. His respective hard-hit rates are 43% and 15%. It’s not as if Schwarber has simply been the victim of bad luck. His performance has been legitimately bad in the most important situations. That doesn’t have to mean anything about his actual talent, but it’s a fact of how this season has gone.

In just those high-leverage plate appearances, Schwarber as a hitter has been about 16 runs below average. That translates to being about 2.5 wins below average. That’s basically the whole of it, there — if Schwarber had just been his regular self, the Cubs today would have a more comfortable cushion. You could say the same kind of thing about anything this year that hasn’t gone the Cubs’ way, but there’s an important thing here to remember. There’s how good a team actually is, and there’s how well a team times its good performances. The latter is much, much harder to control, but it can end up making a big difference in the standings nevertheless.


TL; DR version: baseball is dumb and the worst.
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